Braves Hitters Have a Good Matchup in Game 1 Against Cardinals

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: NBA draft odds
- NL Home: Braves good game 1 matchup
- AL Home: Turnbull has extra motivation against Tigers
- WNBA: Aces could start a run
- And more: Wimbledon qualifying
- News: Knicks get Bridges

The NBA Draft begins tonight at 8pm ET. Nineteen-year-old French forward Zaccharie Risacher is the oddsmakers’ favorite to be picked by the Hawks at #1. Another 19-year-old from France, 7-foot center Alexandre Sarr, is projected to go #2 to the Wizards. After that, things get more uncertain (odds, which are updating frequently, from FanDuel):

In today’s newsletter, Jack doesn’t have high hopes for Reds starter Graham Ashcraft’s return to the majors and Craig is looking for a lot of runs in the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox matchup with Kutter Crawford struggling on the mound. Chris is covering the resurgence of the WNBA’s Aces and two WTA matches.

Braves team total over 2.5 runs first 5 innings - Game 1 (+120 at DraftKings)
The Braves will be licking their chops in the first game of their Wednesday doubleheader. In 124 combined plate appearances against Cardinals starter Kyle Gibson, current Braves hitters are batting .348 with a .432 xwOB and a .623 expected slugging percentage. Patrick Corbin has the worst xwOBA (.389) and xSLG (.522) among qualified pitchers this year, and Gibson's numbers against the Braves are much worse. This is a great spot for Atlanta to jump out to a quick start. 

Graham Ashcraft under 16.5 outs recorded (-125 at DraftKings)
Graham Ashcraft was sent down to the minors after giving up 21 earned runs in a span of six starts and 27.2 innings, but he’s back with the Reds for his first start since June 5. The right-hander went under this line in all six of those starts, and he ranks in the 18th percentile in xERA (.4.83) and xBA (.270). In 52 combined plate appearances against Ashcraft, current Pirates hitters are batting .277 with a .347 xwOBA. 

Matt Olson over 1.5 total bases - Game 1 (+125 at DraftKings)
Speaking of Gibson’s past struggles against the Braves, he’s had the most trouble with Matt Olson over the years. In 26 career at bats against Gibson, Olson is batting .417 and slugging a ridiculous 1.000 with two doubles and four home runs. Nearly 50% of Olson’s hits this season have been extra-base hits, so he could clear this line with one swing. 

Rangers team total over 2.5 runs first 7 innings (-135 at DraftKings)
The Brewers acquired veteran left-hander Dallas Keuchel from the Mariners on Tuesday, and it looks as if he’ll get the start on Wednesday. That’s great news for us, as we get to fade him for the first time this season. Keuchel put up a 5.97 ERA and a 1.673 WHIP in 10 games with the Twins last season, and he had a 9.20 ERA and a 2.060 WHIP between three teams in 2022. This isn’t the same pitcher who won the AL Cy Young in 2015. 

Mets moneyline (+124 at DraftKings)
The Mets are one of the hottest teams in MLB, as they’ve gone 14-4 since June 3. They’re also crushing right-handed pitching of late with a league-best .300 batting average, .904 OPS and 159 wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks. Now the Mets get to face Luis Gil, who got shelled for eight hits and seven earned runs in his last start against the Orioles. The Mets are rolling with left-handed Sean Manaea, and the Yankees are batting just .197 and slugging .316 against lefties over the last 10 days. 

Aaron Judge and CJ Abrams to record a hit parlay (+100 at FanDuel)
Aaron Judge has been better against righties than lefties this year, but he has a good track record against Manaea. The Yankees slugger is 5-12 (.417) with two homers against the Mets left-hander in 14 plate appearances. As for CJ Abrams, he’s nearly impossible to get out right now. The Nationals infielder has hit safely in 15 of his last 16 games, and he’s batting a whopping .650 against righties over the last 10 days. He should be able to get at least one knock off right-hander Dylan Cease. 

Jackson Merrill to hit a home run (+650 at DraftKings)
The Padres are the perfect team to target with a home run prop on Wednesday. Nationals starter DJ Herz has given up a 12.5% barrel rate, a 37.5% fly-ball rate and four home runs in four starts this season, and Petco Park is the second-friendliest stadium in MLB to homers. Let’s roll with Jackson Merrill, who’s cracked seven dingers over the last 15 days and is slugging .704 against lefties in the same span. 

Orioles -1.5 (+110 at DraftKings)
Baltimore and Cleveland are streaking in opposite directions with the former losing five in a row and the latter winning seven. Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez is tasked with playing “stopper” as the O’s attempt to avoid a sweep. The pitching matchup favors the O’s as they face Carlos Carrasco, who has been inconsistent at best. He’s coming off of a stellar start against the Blue Jays, but has a 5.95 ERA in 19.2 June innings. 

Tigers under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (+105 at DraftKings)
Detroit is coming off of an impressive win against Ranger Suarez, but we’re not ready to trust their offense. Aside from a couple of eruptions in recent weeks, the Tigers have struggled mightily offensively. Philadelphia’s Spencer Turnbull is making the start with a chip on his shoulder after being non-tendered by the Tigers last offseason. Extra juice and adrenaline doesn’t always translate to a good performance, but Detroit needs to prove that they’ve emerged from their offensive malaise.

Rockies vs. Astros over 8.5 runs (-102 at FanDuel)
The Astros are averaging 6.8 runs over their six-game win streak and they’re a -198 moneyline favorite today. They’ll call on starter Spencer Arrighetti against the Rockies’ Ryan Feltner. Both right-handers sport ERAs north of 7.50 in June with high WHIPs, so on paper, we’re looking at a matchup between starters who will put ducks on the pond throughout their starts and find themselves in positions to serve up a healthy dose of runs.

Dodgers vs. White Sox under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-122 at FanDuel)
Erick Fedde has been a solid starter for the White Sox, particularly at home, where he’ll pitch for the first time since May 25. He has a 2.97 ERA and .286 wOBA dating back to that most recent home start. He’s pitching well enough to limit the Dodgers to a degree. Meanwhile, we’re not concerned with the White Sox offensively, and Dodgers right-hander Gavin Stone carries a 2.10 ERA and 1.03 across his last 30 innings.

Athletics vs. Angels under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (+110 at FanDuel)
The Angels are giving the ball to reliever Roansy Contreras to start today’s contest, a strategy that has the chance of keeping the Athletics out of rhythm early. Oakland will send right-hander Joey Estes to the hill. His numbers are tough to stomach overall, but he’s compiled a 50+ gamescore in four of six, and outside of an implosion against the Twins on June 16, Estes has pitched to a 3.07 ERA since May 23.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox over 9.5 runs (-110 at FanDuel)
The Blue Jays have reached the over in five of their last eight, a 1-7 stretch, and they’re averaging 6.7 runs over their last three. Boston starter Kutter Crawford will give the Blue Jays opportunities to put up runs. He’s allowed a homer in nine of his last 10 starts, including seven across his last three. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are averaging 6.0 runs per game over their last three and they’re 8-2 over their last 10.

(All games on Thursday)

Wings 1st quarter +2.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
We could take this for +3.5 juiced at other books, but overpaying for vigorish is the antithesis of proper bankroll management. The Minnesota Lynx are off a seminal win, becoming the 2024 Commissioner's Cup champions with a spectacular victory over the Liberty. Now, in their second road travel spot in two days, the Lynx might struggle to find motivation against a lowly opponent. At 3-13 and ranked second-to-last in net rating, few teams if any are worse than the Dallas Wings this season — but off 4 solid days of rest, the home team could at least hold their own early.

Aces -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
The resurgence of the Las Vegas Aces has begun. After a rough 6-6 start, they beat two of the best programs in the W, Seattle and Connecticut, each by 11-point margins in their latest two wins. That's bad news for Chicago. Angel Reese had a magnificent performance on Sunday in a win at home versus the Fever, but this is the first time her and Chicago's front court has had to deal with A'ja Wilson and the reigning champions. The Sky have looked decent in spurts, but their offense ranks 7th and high-octane teams can run them off the court. The value is on the road chalk.

A'ja Wilson over 26.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
A’ja Wilson is the best player in the WNBA, but Angel Reese and the Chicago Sky have yet to face Wilson and the defending champs. The moxie and tenacity of Reese is something to behold, and in moments she can be brilliant, as we saw in her fourth-quarter takeover on Sunday. She was the reason why Chicago won. But after such a great victory, Reese could get a little overconfident, and Chicago doesn't have any bigs with the versatility or athleticism to limit Wilson in the paint. Expect the MVP-favorite to come out swinging. 

Fever vs. Storm 1st quarter over 42.5 points (-102 at DraftKings)
Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever have been brilliant offensively since the start of June, losing only 3 of their last 9 games because of their newfound chemistry. And while their totals are naturally higher, it's the way they start games that's catalyzed their efficiency, averaging 27.6 ppg in their last 5 first quarters. They're facing one of the best defenses in the WNBA, but we like Indiana to push a fast pace early against a slower, more methodical Seattle squad. The first quarters in their two previous matchups produced 41 and 47 points, before Indiana's burgeoning offense was a thing.

Caitlin Clark under 16.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
It’s pretty obvious that Caitlin Clark has already grown accustomed to pro basketball. The superstar guard is leading her team in assists (6.6 per game) and she’s just 0.1 points away from leading her team in scoring. In her last two matchups against the Storm, she scored 21 and 20 points, respectively, but we don’t like her chances as much on Thursday night. Seattle is one of the best teams against the three-ball in the WNBA (allowing 32%), and they know limiting guards has been a weakness (Jackie Young and Kahlea Cooper dropped 30+ on them in recent games). Caitlin’s prop is low for a reason, and we’ll follow the steam. 

Tennis
WTA Eastbourne: Elise Mertens/Jasmine Paolini over 2.5 sets (+120 at DraftKings)
This is a good spot for Elise Mertens, who's working her way back into singles action after a God-awful clay season (winning just 4/7 matches since the Stuttgart Open). But at 28 and as one-half of the world's #1 doubles team with Hsieh Su-Wei, Mertens is a veteran player who knows how to find her footing. She'll take on Jasmine Paolini, who just had the surge of a lifetime at Roland Garros before getting booted 6-2, 6-1 by Iga Swiatek in the final. Coming off a 19-day break, it'll likely take Paolini a second to find a groove, but she's the better singles competitor. This has 3 sets written all over it.

Wimbledon Women's Qualifiers: Eva Lys wins 2-0 over Selena Janicijevic (-140 at DraftKings)
Selena Janicijevic is a French women's competitor who's trying to elevate her chances at climbing the charts. Ranked 223rd in singles, Janicijevic finally made a grand slam last year, qualifying for the 2023 Australian Open before getting swiftly kicked out in the first round by Kaja Juvan. Since then it hasn't looked great. It might go from bad to worse for the under-experienced Janicijevic, as she readies for a battle against Eva Lys. At 22, Lys is far from her best form yet, but she lives off beating up inferior opponents and her power will be on full display, which makes life tough for any opponent facing her on grass.