Yankees Turn to Stroman to Stop 4-Game Skid

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Euro 2024 Round of 16
- AL Home: Watching Scherzer’s second start
- Column: Good leadership in college sports
- NL Home: Bohm is streaking
- WNBA: Tough turnaround for Sun
- UFC 303: Page v. Garry is knockout material
- News: Flagg named to USA Basketball Select team

Euro 2024 Round of 16 action begins tomorrow, with Switzerland facing Italy and tournament host Germany taking on Denmark. England is the current favorite at +320, followed by Spain at +440, and France and Germany at +550. Here’s where FanDuel has this weekend’s matches:

In today’s newsletter, Craig is tracking the Royals to get to Guardians starter Triston McKenzie and Jack is looking for another Phillies’ win following a loss. In WNBA action, Chris likes the Dream and the Sparks to get closer in their matchups tonight than the sportsbooks think. Chris is also covering tomorrow’s UFC 303, where Jiri Prochazka is looking for revenge against Alex Pereira.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays under 8.5 runs (-115 at FanDuel)
The Yankees have lost four straight and the Blue Jays are 3-7 after last night’s victory in the series opener. Marcus Stroman gets to assume the role of stopper tonight for the Yankees. He has allowed two earned runs in 11.1 frames against the Jays this season. Meanwhile, Toronto will call on lefty Yusei Kikuchi. The Yankees are less formidable against lefties overall, and Kikuchi has held them to one earned with 16 strikeouts in 11.1 innings this season.

Royals over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
The Guardians are 7-3 over their last 10 despite dropping two straight. We’re not picking them to drop a third game outright, but we’re not bullish on Guardians starter Triston McKenzie either. The Royals have won a pair of contests after scuffling a bit in recent weeks and will have a chance to put up runs against McKenzie, who owns a 7.27 ERA over his last 26 innings — a span of six starts.

Twins under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
The Mariners smother opponents at home, allowing the fewest runs per game in the league. It’s reasonable to consider that the M’s will be sharper in their return to T-Mobile Park after a 3-6 road trip. They’re 27-12 at home compared to 19-25 on the road. Seattle completed shutouts in each of Logan Gilbert’s last two starts, and we’re anticipating a low-scoring evening for both teams, but especially the visitors.

Logan Gilbert over 18.5 outs recorded (+132 at FanDuel)
Gilbert has dominant numbers overall, but they’re even better at T-Mobile Park. He has allowed zero or one earned run in four of his last six starts, including his last two in which he pitched eight shutout innings. He’s providing length as well, recording at least 20 outs in four consecutive starts. Gilbert struggled against the Twins in a May 9th start, but he was pitching on the road against a team in the midst of an 18-4 stretch.

Orioles moneyline (-135 at Caesars)
The Orioles will have an opportunity to extend their winning streak to three against Max Scherzer and the Rangers. Scherzer is making his second start of the season after returning from a lengthy IL stint with a five-inning gem. We’re not jumping on the Scherzer bandwagon. The second start following a lengthy absence is always one worth watching, and pitching against the O’s in Baltimore is a lot different from facing the Royals at home.

Gunnar Henderson over 1.5 total bases (+100 at DraftKings) 
Henderson has a 1.132 OPS in June, a 1.014 OPS against right-handers, and a more-than-respectable .867 OPS against power pitchers. He’s delivered three straight multi-hit games, and he has more home runs this month (8) than games without a hit (3). Regardless of where Max Scherzer resides on the “power pitcher” spectrum at this stage of his career, he will struggle with Henderson if he’s not razor sharp tonight.

Rockies vs. White Sox under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
This weekend’s Rockies vs. White Sox series features the two worst teams in baseball. The Rockies are abysmal on the road (11-29) and average 3.6 runs per game away from Coors Field. The White Sox, meanwhile, are scoring 1.8 runs per game over their last 10 contests. We don’t have faith in Rockies starter Dakota Hudson or White Sox right-hander Drew Thorpe, but there’s a chance each looks much better than their numbers suggest against their respective opponents.

I’ve spent the bulk of my 10 year broadcasting career covering college sports, witnessing firsthand the changes over the last decade when it comes to recruiting, the transfer portal, NIL and the impact social media has on all of it. 

Imagine being 18 years old again and being faced with the decisions that some of these student-athletes have to make – in addition to the pressures of the spotlight and now navigating the financial aspect of it all. Leadership, and I mean GOOD leadership, in college sports is more important now than ever. But what are examples of that good leadership these days?

Click here to continue reading Abby’s column on our website

Phillies -1.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Death, taxes and backing the Phillies after a loss. The Phillies have lost only 28 games this season, and they’re an MLB-best 20-7 after a loss. Incredibly, 15 of those 20 wins have come by more than one run. This is another good spot for a bounce-back performance against the Marlins with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound. Sanchez has given up one run or fewer in five of his last six starts, and Miami has the lowest OPS (.598) and wRC+ (69) in the league against lefties this year. 

Alec Bohm over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+115 at DraftKings)
There’s no slowing down the scorching hot Alec Bohm. The Phillies third baseman is batting .459 with a 1.230 OPS and a 241 wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks, and he leads the National League in RBIs with 65. This is also a great matchup against Kyle Tyler, who throws his cutter 63% of the time. Bohm has seen 87 cutters this season, and he has a .328 expected batting average, a .614 expected slugging percentage and a .434 xwOBA against them. 

Ronel Blanco under 5.5 Ks (+100 at DraftKings)
It’s not easy to fade Ronel Blanco right now, but this is a solid matchup to do it. The Mets are on fire against right-handed pitching with a league-best .311 batting average, .967 OPS and a 176 wRC+ over the last two weeks. New York also has the sixth-lowest strikeout rate against righties in that same span. Blanco uses movement and deception to force swings and misses, but the Mets are seeing the ball too well for that to be effective. 

Logan Webb under 2.5 earned runs (-135 at DraftKings)
Logan Webb loves pitching in the friendly confines of Oracle Park. The right-hander has gone under this line in five of his seven home starts this season, including last month when he gave up only three hits and no runs in 6.0 innings of work against the Dodgers. Los Angeles is also struggling against righties lately, batting just .210 with a .669 OPS and an 89 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last week. 

Christopher Sanchez under 1.5 walks + Ronel Blanco 2+ walks parlay (+132 at DraftKings)
Christopher Sanchez has gone under this line in six of his last seven starts, and this is the best possible matchup for avoiding walks. The Miami Marlins have the lowest walk rate (5.7%), the highest swing rate (52.5%) and the highest chase rate (34.4%) in MLB this season. Ronel Blanco hasn’t been as good with his control, as he has a 10.2% walk rate and has walked at least two batters in 11 of his 14 starts. These prices are too juicy to consider individually, so a parlay would be the way to go. 

Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman to record a hit parlay (-122 at FanDuel)
Ozzie Albies has been struggling at the plate this month, but a date with Martin Perez might be just what he needs. Perez has the fourth-worst expected batting average (.295) among qualified pitchers, and Albies is 5-6 against him with two home runs. Freddie Freeman is also staring down a great matchup, as he’s batting .484 and slugging .677 in 33 career plate appearances against Logan Webb. 

Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+340 at DraftKings)
Yordan Alvarez is almost an auto-bet when his price is this high. The Astros slugger ranks in the 97th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.554) and the 87th percentile in barrel rate (13.0%). Mets starter Jose Quintana has surrendered nine home runs in his last eight starts, and Alvarez has been crushing left-handed pitching all season. He’s batting .381 and slugging .714 against lefties this month. 

Dream vs. Sun under 152.5 points (-110 at BetMGM and Bet365)
Friday’s matchup between the Dream and the Sun has under written all over it. Connecticut just competed in an OT barnburner in Washington DC late Thursday night, and now they’ll turn around less than 24 hours later and hope to revive their energy against the lowly Dream. Shots won’t fall easy. Meanwhile, Atlanta, a team predicated by defense (6th overall), runs at one of the slowest tempos in the association (10th), and their offense ranks dead last. Getting to 150 feels beyond perilous for two teams that struggle offensively and can count on resistance to stay ahead.

Dream +9 (-108 at Bookmaker)
No matter which way you look at it, this is a terrible spot for the Connecticut Sun. They got a win last night but they needed OT to get it, and on Monday they have a big road matchup at Phoenix. In their way is the Atlanta Dream tonight, a squad that scored just 50 points in their first matchup. This would be an easy game for Connecticut to overlook, and an opening conservative spread suggests that's exactly what oddsmakers initially expected. Bettors are inflating the number now, but we could only look at the underdog. 

Sparks +11.5 (-108 at BetOnline)
On May 14th, the Phoenix Mercury opened their 2024 campaign in Las Vegas against the reigning champions. They were 16.5-point underdogs. Now, just 16 games into the season, Phoenix is hanging double-digit chalk hosting the L.A. Sparks. The spread opened lower domestically, but sharps weren't having it. Agan we disagree. The Sparks are not very good, and the Mercury have shown vast improvement through 45 days of action, but that’s too significant of a market-move, and it’s far too small a sample size to endorse it.

Saturday game:

Mystics vs. Aces over 170.5 points (-110 at DraftKings, FanDuel, and Bovada)
This is a total we’ve been waiting to attack all week, figuring that oddsmakers wouldn't be aggressive enough. Washington officially has a better offense than most give them credit for, eclipsing 90 points in their last three games and scoring at least 80 points in their last eight. Over those last eight games, they’re the 3rd-best offense in the W. Meanwhile the Aces have rediscovered their groove, crushing their last three opponents by 11-12 pt margins and averaging 91.3 ppg in the process. Both teams like to run the floor fast (Vegas is #1 in tempo in June), and both offenses have not been limited by any opponent defense. This contest has a chance to reach 200.

UFC 303

Joe Pyfer wins in round 3 (+900 at DraftKings)
Joe Pyfer is a tough Philadelphia-bred striker who’s always in attack-mode. Once heralded as an up-and-coming star, Pyfer had a few missteps since joining the UFC. But it was his last bout, a decision loss to Jack Hermansson, that he’s still fired up about. Pyfer will look to make a statement against the 34-year-old Marc-Andre Barriault, who’s seen plenty in his 10-year pro career. And he’s only been knocked out once. We’ll bet on Pyfer landing the right punch, but later in the battle.

Michael Page vs. Ian Garry to end in KO/TKO (+185 at FanDuel)
One of the most intriguing fights on the UFC 303 PPV card is Michael “Venom” Page vs. Ian “Machado” Garry. Garry is a gifted striker and he’s 14-0 with some impressive victories under his belt, but he still hasn’t been challenged by a true top-tier opponent. That’ll change Saturday night. Page, the Bellator legend that’s had one mystifying KO after another throughout his career, made UFC veteran Kevin Holland look like an amateur in his debut with the company, out-crafting the hyper-athletic Holland for all 3 rounds. Garry and Page both appear far too overconfident leading up to the PPV opener, a dangerous approach for either guy against a foe with elite striking ability. Someone is likely hitting the canvas. 

Jiri Prochazka wins (+124 at BetOnline)
Jiri Prochazka will get his shot at revenge as he battles Alex Pereira for the light heavyweight championship for the second time in eight months. Both men instantly stepped up when it was announced that Connor McGregor had to delay his return, a move that could prove very risky for the current champ. So far Pereira has been untouchable, losing just once in 3 years in the UFC in a rematch with Israel Adesanya, but in his first fight with Prochazka he came very close to losing another. The TKO stoppage in the first battle was questionable, and since then Jiri knocked out the very dangerous Aleksandar Rakic, in perhaps the best form we've ever seen.