Today’s Top 10 NBA and NHL Bets to Watch + CFP Rankings Analysis

We also rank the 10 best quarterbacks in the NFL through Week 10

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Analyzing the new CFP rankings

2. Bets to Watch: Spurs’ Fox showing no rust in return from injury

3. Top 10: The best NFL quarterbacks through 10 weeks

4. By the Numbers: Seahawks and Rams are both 7-2 ATS

5. Overtime: Ghost of Luka catches Nico

1. Leading Off

The College Football Playoff selection committee released its second set of Top 25 rankings of the season, and again their was limited controversy. Indiana didn’t fall out of the No. 2 spot despite its close call against Penn State, Texas Tech moved up a couple spots to No. 6 after blowing out previously undefeated BYU, and Texas moved into the field as the last at-large team.

Although the playoff will feature 12 teams, the new rules also require the five highest-ranked conference champions to make the field — meaning this season is likely to feature the top-10 teams plus the winner of the ACC and another conference winner. If the season ended today, the SEC would lead the way with five teams in the playoff, the Big Ten would have just three, with the Big 12, ACC and American each getting one, and Notre Dame making it in as an Independent.

Here’s the remaining schedule for the 12 teams currently in the field, along with where they would be seeded if the season ended today:

1. Ohio State: vs. UCLA, vs. Rutgers, at No. 18 Michigan, Big Ten championship vs. Indiana (projected)

2. Indiana: vs. Wisconsin, at Purdue, Big Ten championship vs. Ohio State (projected)

3. Texas A&M: vs. South Carolina, vs. Samford, at No. 10 Texas, SEC championship vs. Alabama (projected)

4. Alabama: vs. Eastern Illinois, at Auburn, SEC championship vs. Texas A&M (projected)

5. Georgia: vs. No. 10 Texas, vs. Charlotte, vs. No. 16 Georgia Tech

6. Texas Tech: vs. UCF, at West Virginia, Big 12 championship vs. BYU (projected)

7. Ole Miss: vs. Florida, at Mississippi State

8. Oregon: vs. Minnesota, vs. No. 17 USC, at No. 23 Washington

9. Notre Dame: at No. 22 Pittsburgh, vs. Syracuse, at Stanford

10. Texas: at No. 5 Georgia, vs. Arkansas, vs. No. 3 Texas A&M

11. Miami (ranked 15th): vs. NC State, at Virginia Tech, at No. 22 Pittsburgh

12. South Florida (ranked 24th): at Navy, at UAB, vs. Rice, American championship vs. Tulane (projected)

No. 11 Oklahoma and No. 12 BYU are the first teams out, but both could play their way back in — Oklahoma faces No. 4 Alabama this weekend and a win could bolster its case, while BYU could still win the Big 12 championship. The team least likely to stay in the field: No. 15 Miami. The Hurricanes are in as the highest-ranked ACC team, but they almost certainly won’t make it to the conference championship game so they need a lot of losses ahead of them to get to the top 10, the likely cutoff for at-large teams this season.

No. 13 Utah looks pretty well boxed out unless it can somehow work its way into the Big 12 championship, while No. 14 Vanderbilt would need a lot of losses above of it to get into the field.

Ohio State has the best odds to win the title at +195, according to FanDuel. The Buckeyes are followed by Indiana (+550), Texas A&M (+700), Alabama (+950), Georgia (+1100) and Notre Dame (+1200). Check out ESPN’s playoff predictor to see what would happen with specific wins and losses the rest of the way.

—Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Fox is Off to a Fast Start After Returning from Injury, Scoring 21+ in 2 Games (60.7% FG)

By Todd Cordell

Spurs G De’Aaron Fox over 20.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
Let Fox cook. He has wasted no time getting buckets since returning to the lineup, going over this line in both games while playing 30+ minutes and attempting 14+ shots in each. He absolutely feasted under such circumstances a season ago, clearing this line in 71% of his games. The Warriors are allowing a league-high 31 points per game to point guards, so Fox couldn’t ask for a better matchup to keep chugging along.

Knicks G Miles McBride over 1.5 assists (-131 at DraftKings)
McBride has played a meaningful role off the bench, earning more than 22 minutes per night. The opportunity should continue to be there in a back-to-back situation where coach Mike Brown may be a little more reliant on his bench to keep guys fresh. McBride has multiple assists in seven of eight this season and cleared this line at a 76% clip last season when playing 20+ minutes, a number he should be able to hit in this spot.

Thunder G Isaiah Joe 2.5 three pointers (-174 at FanDuel)
This line is juiced and rightfully so. Joe has been an absolute flamethrower for the Thunder, going over this line in six of seven games. He has attempted at least six 3s each time out while averaging nearly nine 3s per night. Joe went over this line in 86% of his games last season when taking seven 3s or more, which appears to be closer to his floor than ceiling in this new role. 

Mavericks G Max Christie over 1.5 three pointers (-154 at FanDuel)
Christie is playing a big role for the Mavericks. He is averaging 30 minutes and nearly six attempts from beyond the arc. That has translated to a lot of threes, with Christie going over this line nine times in 11 tries. Christie cleared this line at a 69% clip last season when playing 26+ minutes and attempting at least 4 three pointers, both of which have proven to be his floor this year.

Trail Blazers G Jrue Holiday over 4.5 rebounds (-129 at DraftKings)
Holiday has done a great job on the glass this season. He has averaged 5.5 boards and cleared this line in eight of 10. He’s shown a really strong floor, positioning himself to record 8+ rebound chances eight times. He’s gone over in each of those eight games. The Pelicans rank 24th in rebounds per game and 28th in field goal%, suggesting there should be plenty of bricks and opportunities for Holiday to collect loose change. 

NHL

Devils C Dawson Mercer over 1.5 shots (-142 at DraftKings)
The Blackhawks have conceded nearly 32 shots per game over the last 10, most in the league. They’ve particularly struggled limiting volume on the wings. They have conceded more shots to the wing than any other position group in that span. Mercer is a matchup dependent shooter who has excelled in previous high-pace matchups against teams like the Sharks and the Penguins. 

Devils D Luke Hughes over 0.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
More opportunity is being thrown at Hughes with cluster injuries on defense to Dougie Hamilton and Brett Pesce. He is skating on a lethal No. 1 power play each night and getting as many 5v5 minutes as he can handle. Hughes saw a big spike in production without Hamilton last year, recording a point in well over half his games and 60% when following a day of rest. Hughes also had multiple points in five of seven games in which he logged 25+ minutes – a number he has cleared in four of his last five. The Blackhawks are scoring a lot of goals but their defensive metrics leave a lot to be desired, suggesting Hughes and this Devils offense can cause them problems.

Rangers D Adam Fox over 1.5 shots (-160 at FanDuel)
Fox is generating a lot more shots under coach Mike Sullivan. His average attempt output has risen from 4.6 to 5.8, resulting in his hit rate soaring from 53% to 71%. He has shown a great floor, attempting at least four shots in 15 of 17 games this season. He cleared this line in 71% of his games last season when attempting 4+ shots and 81% when generating 5+, a baseline he’s hit 13 times this season. The Lightning have given up the 6th most shots per game to defensemen, making this an advantageous positional matchup for Fox.

Oilers C Leon Draisaitl over 0.5 goals (+120 at FanDuel)
Draisaitl is as consistent as they come in terms of scoring goals. There were only two stretches all of last season in which he failed to find the back of the net in more than two straight games. Fun fact: he’s in a two-game goal drought. The Flyers are a pretty good defensive team but they take a lot of penalties and Draisaitl leads the league in power play goals since the beginning of last season.

Mammoth C Clayton Keller over 0.5 assists (-120 at FanDuel)
Keller was an assist machine a season ago. He picked up at least one apple in 57% of his games and a whopping 63% when playing on home soil. He has only assisted in six of 16 games this season (38%) and just once over the past eight games. Keller is actually generating shots a lower rate this year so it’s not as if he’s become more of a shooter and there’s a reason for this dip. Not to mention, he’s now playing on the same line with Nick Schmaltz and Logan Cooley, the team’s two leaders in goals. That should get his assists up.

3. Top 10

The Quarterbacks Having the Biggest Impact Through Week 10 in the NFL

Here are the 10 best signal-callers through Week 10 based on their stats and impact to their teams:

1. Matthew Stafford (Rams): The 37-year-old is playing some the best football of his career. Stafford has thrown 20 touchdowns without a single interception over his last six games. That's an NFL record for any six-game stretch in a season. He's making everything look easy and has the Rams rolling (and at the top of our power rankings) at 7-2.

2. Drake Maye (Patriots): The Patriots second-year player is the league's most consistent signal-caller this season. Maye has New England sitting at 8-2 and firmly in playoff position. He's throwing for 8.9 yards per attempt with 19 touchdowns. He’s also making plays with his legs when his team needs it.

3. Josh Allen (Bills): The reigning MVP isn’t as consistent as we’ve come to expect. Allen has completed 16 or fewer passes in four starts and has just 15 touchdowns to five interceptions. The Bills are 6-3 and Allen is still a top-10 player in the league. And he’s still a dual threat with 311 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground.

4. Lamar Jackson (Ravens): Jackson returned from injury and picked apart Miami’s defense for a clinical 18-23, 204-yard, 4-touchdown performance before a mediocre showing in a win over the Vikings. Baltimore was just 1-3 before Jackson went out with an injury but are now 4-5 and back in the AFC North race. Jackson's ability to take over games with his arm and legs keeps defenses guessing.

5. Sam Darnold (Seahawks): Darnold's latest comeback story is one of the season's best narratives. After being cast away by the Vikings after a career year, he's thrown 17 touchdowns against just six picks while leading Seattle to a 7-2 record. The addition of receiver Rashid Shaheed at the trade deadline should only make him better. A win over Stafford and the Rams on Sunday would elevate Darnold’s stature even more.

6. Jared Goff (Lions): The Lions are just 6-3, but Goff isn’t what’s holding them back. He's thrown 20 touchdowns with just three picks while completing 74% of his passes. Goff makes Detroit's offense hum with his quick reads and accurate throws. Even on his bad days, he finds ways to help his team win.

7. Jalen Hurts (Eagles): The reigning champs are winning again, and Hurts is finding his groove. He's thrown eight touchdowns without a pick in his last three games (all wins). Hurts is running the offense with confidence now instead of just operating within it. The Eagles are 7-2, and while they don’t look as scary as last season, they have momentum.

8. Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs): The three-time Super Bowl champion and two-time NFL MVP has the lowest completion percentage of his career, but still has 17 touchdowns to five interceptions. Kansas City is only 5-4, but is still the Super Bowl favorite. That’s because Mahomes remains the league's most dangerous weapon when it matters most.

9. Justin Herbert (Chargers): Herbert isn’t having his most consistent season but still has the Chargers at 6-3. He’s throwing for 7.3 yards per attempt with 19 touchdowns. If LA wants to make the playoffs in a tough AFC West, they'll need their QB to lead the way.

10. Daniel Jones (Colts): Jones has played two bad games this season, and they resulted in the Colts only two losses of the year. Without those two outliers, Jones has thrown 13 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. His mobility adds another dimension to Shane Steichen's offense.

4. By the Numbers

The Six NFL Games With Spreads of a Field Goal or Less in Week 11

NBA

• Bucks (-5.5, -114) vs. Hornets (+5.5, -106): 80% of the money and 82% of the bets are with Milwaukee

  • MIL: 6-5, CHA: 4-6

• Magic (+4, -106) vs. Knicks (-4, -114): 83% of the money and 72% of the bets are with New York

  • ORL: 4-7, NYK: 7-3

• Grizzlies (+6.5, -110) vs. Celtics (-6.5, -110): 65% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Boston

  • MEM: 3-9-0, BOS: 4-7-1

• Wizards (+16.5, -110) vs. Rockets (-16.5, -110): 79% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Houston

  • WAS: 2-8-1, HOU: 6-3-0

• Warriors (+4.5, -110) vs. Spurs (-4.5, -110): 79% of the money and 64% of the bets are with San Antonio

  • GS: 5-6-1, SA: 4-4-2

• Trail Blazers (-8.5, -108) vs. Pelicans (+8.5, -112): 60% of the money and 55% of the bets are with Portland

  • POR: 6-4-0, NOP: 4-5-1

• Suns (+1, -114) vs. Mavericks (-1, -106): 68% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Phoenix

  • PHX: 6-3-2, DAL: 5-6-0

• Nuggets (-2.5, -112) vs. Clippers (+2.5, -108): 80% of the money and 81% of the bets are with Denver

  • DEN: 7-3, LAC: 1-9

NFL

• Commanders (+2.5, -102) vs. Dolphins (-2.5, -120): 78% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Miami

  • WAS: 3-7, MIA: 5-5

• Bears (+3, -118) vs. Vikings (-3, -104): 73% of the money and 57% of the bets are with Minnesota

  • CHI: 5-4, MIN: 4-5

• Chargers (-2.5, -120) vs. Jaguars (+2.5, -102): 67% of the money and 79% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • LAC: 5-5, JAX: 4-5

• Seahawks (+3, -110) vs. Rams (-3, -110): 63% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Seattle

  • SEA: 7-2, LAR: 7-2

• 49ers (-2.5, -115) vs. Cardinals (+2.5, -105): 56% of the money and 71% of the bets are with the 49ers

  • SF: 5-5, ARI: 5-4

• Lions (+2.5, -106) vs. Eagles (-2.5, -114): 51% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Detroit

  • DET: 6-3, PHI: 6-3

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Even lucking into Cooper Flagg wasn’t enough to save Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison after he traded superstar Luka Doncic to the Lakers. Harrison was fired after the Mavericks 3-8 start. Fans had been calling for his dismissal since the trade last February.

• The LSU-Brian Kelly saga continues, as the coach sued the school for a full buyout and LSU said it hasn’t formally fired the coach yet. Kelly’s contract reportedly calls for him to be paid $54 million in monthly payments through 2031, but LSU wants to give Kelly a smaller lump payment right away instead (between $25-$30 million) and they haven’t reached an agreement.

• North Carolina coach Bill Belichick is starting to get questions about whether he’ll leave the school to return to the NFL for the Giants’ head coaching vacancy. Despite Belichick’s 4-5 record at UNC, the future NFL Hall of Famer continues to get talked about for head coaching openings. He’s an underdog to get the Giants job, according to DraftKings (+1600), while former Cowboys and Packers coach Mike McCarthy is the early favorite at +700.

• Cristiano Ronaldo said he expects to play in a record sixth World Cup at the age of 41 next summer, keeping pace with Argentina’s Lionel Messi. Ronaldo has scored a record 143 goals for Portugal and said he plans to retire in one to two years.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Magic vs. Knicks on ESPN (or Rangers vs. Lightning on TNT or Toledo vs. Miami (OH) [CFB] on ESPN2)

• 9pm: Creighton vs. Nebraska [NCAAM] on FS1

• 9:30pm: Lakers vs. Thunder on ESPN (or Devils vs. Blackhawks on TNT)