A Look at Hypothetical NFL Playoff Matchups + NBA, NHL and MCBB Odds and Insights

We also preview SGA’s first game after nearly losing his 100+ game scoring streak

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Looking ahead at the NFL playoffs

2. Game of the Day: Spurs trying to stay in front of Lakers for 2nd in West

3. Scouting Report: SGA looks to shake off near-end of scoring streak

4. By the Numbers: Blackhawks are 16-5 ATS at home

5. Overtime: 2nd-longest tenured NFL head coach was fired

1. Leading Off

The Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs doesn’t start until Saturday, but some sportsbooks are already looking ahead at potential Divisional Round matchups. FanDuel is giving the Bills a 1.5-point edge against the Broncos in Denver and the Rams a 1.5-point advantage against the Eagles in Philadelphia. The biggest number of the sportsbook’s hypotheticals: The Rams start as 7-point home favorites against the 49ers (bets are voided if the matchups don’t take place).

In more traditional futures, the No. 1-seeded Broncos are the favorites to win the AFC at +230 with the No. 2 Patriots next at +430, followed by the No. 5 Texans (+480), No. 6 Bills (+500), and No. 3 Jaguars (+550). In the NFC, the top-seeded Seahawks are first at +175, with the No. 5 Rams (+240), No. 3 Eagles (+420), No. 2 Bears (+950), and No. 7 Packers (+1000) next.

Seattle (+390) is the consensus favorite to win the Super Bowl, with the Rams (+440), Broncos (+650) and Eagles (+800) just behind.

— Abe Rakov

2. Game of the Day

Doncic Carries Scoring Load With Reaves Out, Wembanyama is Back (Again)

The Spurs are just 2-4 since their back-to-back wins over the Thunder, while the Lakers have won 4 of 5 following a three-game losing streak. Victor Wembanyama returned for the Spurs yesterday, coming off the bench to lead his team with 30 points while adding 5 rebounds in just 21 minutes of action in a 106-105 loss to the Grizzlies. With Austin Reaves out for the Lakers, even more of the scoring load has fallen on Luka Doncic, who has 30+ points in each of the five games Reaves has missed so far. With Wembanyama in and out of the lineup, San Antonio has seen four different leading scorers in the past four games, and five over the past 11.

The Spurs have consistently held down the second spot in the Western Conference, while the Lakers are in a logjam for the 3-6 positions. Los Angeles is tied for the second-most road wins in the NBA (13).

Lakers (23-11, 13-5 Away) vs. Spurs (25-11, 12-5 Home)
9:30pm on ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: LAL (+7.5, -105), SA (-7.5, -115)

  • 59% of the money is with SA but 68% of the bets are with LAL

  • ATS | LAL (road): 10-7, SA (home): 9-7-1

• Moneyline: LAL (+225), SA (-275)

• Total (233.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • LAL: 21-12, SA: 17-19

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Lakers G Luka Doncic | Points: 35.5 (33.7 - 30, 36, 34, 30, 34), Reb: 7.5 (8.1 - 2, 9, 6, 5, 5), Ast: 9.5 (8.7 - 10, 8, 8, 11, 7)

• Lakers F LeBron James | Points: 22.5 (21.2 - 30, 26, 31, 17, 24), Reb: 6.5 (5.2 - 8, 7, 9, 4, 3), Ast: 6.5 (6.7 - 8, 10, 6, 4, 5)

• Spurs G De'Aaron Fox | Points: 19.5 (21.7 - 9, 19, 24, 26, 14), Reb: 4.5 (3.8 - 5, 6, 7, 1, 2), Ast: 5.5 (5.8 - 8, 4, 4, 7, 3)

• Spurs G Stephon Castle | Points: 17.5 (17.9 - 15, 16, 19, 5, 15), Reb: 4.5 (5.0 - 8, 5, 8, 2, 4), Ast: 6.5 (7.1 - 4, 9, 8, 7, 8, 7)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. Scouting Report

SGA Gets Matchup Against Jazz After Nearly Losing a 100+ Game Streak

• 76ers G Tyrese Maxey (vs. Wizards)

  • The Sixers are coming off an embarrassing home loss to the short-handed Nuggets, who were 14.5-point underdogs. Maxey played 46 minutes in the overtime matchup but still had his first under-30 scoring night in in four games. With a day’s rest at home the extra minutes shouldn’t be as big of a factor, and Maxey and the Sixers will want to avoid a second unexpected loss in a row. He scored 35 points in his most recent matchup against the Wizards on December 2nd, and put up 39 when they played in October.

  • Points: 28.5 (31.0 - 28, 36, 34, 34, 28), Reb: 4.5 (4.7 - 6, 8, 8, 4, 2), Ast: 7.5 (7.0 - 6, 4, 10, 12, 5)

  • WAS - W1 (6-4 L10) | Points Allowed: 124.4 (29th), Reb Allowed: 48.3 (30th), Ast Allowed: 28.9 (28th)

• Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (vs. Jazz)

  • Gilgeous-Alexander nearly saw his now 108-game streak of scoring 20 or more points come to an end when he managed just 21 in a 27-point blowout loss to the 13-23 Hornets. It was his fourth-straight game scoring under his season average. After starting 24-1, the Thunder are just 6-6 and are coming off back-to-back defeats. Playing Utah could be the cure Oklahoma City needs, as it won in a 144-112 laugher when they played in November. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 31 on 64% shooting and added eight assists in 30 minutes.

  • Points: 30.5 (31.6 - 21, 25, 30, 30, 39), Reb: 4.5 (4.4 - 2, 0, 1, 2, 6), Ast: 6.5 (6.4 - 6, 6, 7, 6, 6)

  • UTA - L4 (2-8 L10) | Points Allowed: 127.0 (30th), Reb Allowed: 44.8 (19th), Ast Allowed: 30.2 (30th)

• Kings RW Adrian Kempe (vs. Sharks)

  • Kempe has 15 goals on the season, tied with Kevin Fiala for most on the team, and leads Los Angeles with 19 assists. He’s scored in back-to-back games and has at least one point in four of five — with an average of 4.3 shots per game in that span. The Sharks allow the second-most goals in the league, struggle at killing penalties, and allow the third-most shots in the NHL, so Kempe should have ample opportunities to notch a point.

  • Points: 0.5 (0.8 - 1, 1, 0, 1, 1), Goals: +125 (0.4 - 1, 1, 0, 0, 0), Ast: 0.5 (0.5 - 0, 0, 0, 1, 1), Shots: 3.5 (2.9 - 6, 5, 1, 5, 2)

  • SJ - W1 (6-4-0 L10) | Shots Allowed: 27.7 (30th), Goals Allowed: 3.54 (31st), Penalty Kill: 77.1% (25th)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

4. By the Numbers

Knicks are 13-6 ATS at Home, Spread Bettors Are With Road Underdog Alabama

NBA

• Raptors (22-15, 10-7 Away) vs. Hornets (13-23, 7-10 Home)

  • TOR (-2.5, -110), CHA (+2.5, -110): 72% of the money and 56% of the bets are with TOR

    • ATS | TOR (road): 9-8, CHA (home): 10-7

  • Total (229.5) | TOR: 14-23 (115.8 ppg), CHA: 14-22 (114.4 ppg)

• Bulls (17-19, 7-10 Away) vs. Pistons (27-9, 13-3 Home)

  • CHI (+10.5, -112), DET (-10.5, -108): 55% of the money and 54% of the bets are with CHI

    • ATS | CHI (road): 8-9, DET (home): 9-7

  • Total (234.5) | CHI: 16-20 (118.3 ppg), DET: 17-19 (118.8 ppg)

• Clippers (13-22, 4-13 Away) vs. Knicks (23-13, 15-4 Home)

  • LAC (+6, -112), NYK (-6, -108): 56% of the money and 58% of the bets are with LAC

    • ATS | LAC (road): 8-9, NYK (home): 13-6

  • Total (224.5) | LAC: 17-18 (112.4 ppg), NYK: 21-16 (120.5 ppg)

• Jazz (12-23, 4-12 Away) vs. Thunder (30-7, 17-2 Home)

  • UTA (+18.5, -115), OKC (-18.5, -105): 57% of the money is with OKC but 62% of the bets are with UTA

    • ATS | UTA (road): 6-10, OKC (home): 11-8

  • Total (242.5) | UTA: 22-13 (119.7 ppg), OKC: 17-20 (121.9 ppg)

• Bucks (16-20, 7-11 Away) vs. Warriors (19-18, 11-5 Home)

  • MIL (+6.5, -110), GS (-6.5, -110): 54% of the money is with GS but 69% of the bets are with MIL

    • ATS | MIL (road): 9-9, GS (home): 8-8

  • Total (229.5) | MIL: 15-21 (113.3 ppg), GS: 20-17 (115.2 ppg)

• Rockets (22-11, 11-9 Away) vs. Trail Blazers (17-20, 8-9 Home)

  • HOU (-6.5, -108), POR (+6.5, -112): 58% of the money is with POR but the bets are 50/50

    • ATS | HOU (road): 12-8, POR (home): 10-7

  • Total (224.5) | HOU: 18-15 (120.0 ppg), POR: 20-17 (116.3 ppg)

NHL

• Flames (18-20-4, 6-13-2 Away) vs. Canadiens (23-13-6, 10-9-1 Home)

  • CAL (+1.5, -205), MON (-1.5, +164): 92% of the money and 58% of the bets are with MON

    • ATS | CAL (road): 10-11, MON (home): 7-13

  • Moneyline | CAL: +122, MON -146 — 91% of the money and 78% of the bets are with MON

  • Total (5.5) | CAL: 25-16 (2.62 gpg), MON: 26-16 (3.31 gpg)

• Blues (17-18-8, 7-9-3 Away) vs. Blackhawks (17-18-7, 9-8-4 Home)

  • STL (-1.5, +210), CHI (+1.5, -265): 86% of the money is with STL but 64% of the bets are with STL

    • ATS | STL (road): 12-7, CHI (home): 16-5

  • Moneyline | STL -122, CHI +102 — 76% of the money and 52% of the bets are with CHI

  • Total (5.5) | STL: 21-22 (2.49 gpg), CHI: 18-24 (2.76 gpg)

• Senators (20-16-5, 10-8-2 Away) vs. Mammoth (20-20-3, 9-7-1 Home)

  • OTT (+1.5, -245), UTA (-1.5, +194): 93% of the money is with UTA but 71% of the bets are with OTT

    • ATS | OTT (road): 10-10, UTA (home): 7-10

  • Moneyline | OTT: +100, UTA: -120 — 70% of the money and 51% of the bets are with UTA

  • Total (6.5) | OTT: 24-16 (3.24 gpg), UTA: 21-21 (3.02 gpg)

MCBB

• No. 4 UConn (14-1, 4-0 Big East) vs. Providence (8-6, 1-2 Big East)

  • UCONN (-11.5, -105), PRO (+11.5, -115): 77% of the money and 78% of the bets are with UCONN

    • ATS | UCONN: 6-9, PRO: 8-6

  • Total (150.5) | UCONN: 4-11 (78.9 ppg), PRO: 9-5 (88.9 ppg)

• No. 3 Iowa State (14-0, 1-0 Big 12) vs. Baylor (10-3, 0-1 Big 12)

  • ISU (-4.5, -110), BAY (+4.5, -110): 68% of the money and 75% of the bets are with ISU

    • ATS | ISU: 8-6, BAY: 6-6

  • Total (155.5) | ISU: 8-6 (89.6 ppg), BAY: 9-3 (93.1 ppg)

• No. 13 Alabama (11-3, 1-0 SEC) vs. No. 11 Vanderbilt (14-0, 1-0 SEC)

  • ALA (+4.5, -115), VAN (-4.5, -105): 80% of the money and 83% of the bets are with ALA

    • ATS | ALA: 7-7, VAN: 9-5

  • Total (178.5) | ALA: 7-7 (94.1 ppg), VAN: 8-6 (93.4 ppg)

• No. 15 Arkansas (11-3, 1-0 SEC) vs. Ole Miss (8-6, 0-1 SEC)

  • ARK (-4.5, -110), MISS (+4.5, -110): 58% of the money and 81% of the bets are with ARK

    • ATS | ARK: 10-4, MISS: 3-11

  • Total (153.5) | ARK: 8-6 (90.2 ppg), MISS: 8-6 (74.3 ppg)

• No. 24 SMU (12-2, 1-0 ACC) vs. Clemson (12-3, 2-0 ACC)

  • SMU (+4.5, -110), CLEM (-4.5, -110): 62% of the money is with CLEM but 76% of the bets are with SMU

    • ATS | SMU: 7-7, CLEM: 8-7

  • Total (148.5) | SMU: 9-5 (91.5 ppg), CLEM: 7-8 (78.2 ppg)

5. Overtime

In the News

• The Ravens fired coach John Harbaugh after a rookie kicker missed a 44-yard field goal that would have sent Baltimore to the playoffs for the 7th time in eight years. In 18 seasons with the Ravens, Harbaugh was 193-124, made the postseason 12 times, and won Super Bowl in the 2012 campaign. Harbaugh’s agent said that seven teams immediately reached out to inquire about the coach’s availability, which is one more team than currently has an opening when you don’t include the Ravens.

• A few high-profile coordinators were fired yesterday, as the Lions dismissed offensive coordinator John Morton after his lone season replacing now-Bears coach Ben Johnson, and the Cowboys let go formers Bears coach Matt Eberflus, who got just one season in Dallas as defensive coordinator. The coaches finished in different circumstances: The Lions were fifth in the NFL in both points and yards per game, while the Cowboys gave up the most points and passing yards in the league. And the Commanders need two new assistants, as they fired defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr., and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and the team agreed to part ways.

• The Raiders are looking for their sixth coach in five seasons after firing Pete Carroll after just one year. Las Vegas is 31-54 since that stretch began, and their only winning season came with an interim head coach at the helm in 2021. Owner Mark Davis said in a statement that minority owner Tom Brady and general manager John Spytek will work in “close collaboration” on football decisions, which would include hiring the next coach.

• On the college football front, CBS Sports ranked 10 new coordinators. Former Utah offensive coordinator followed his head coach Kyle Whittingham to Michigan and earned the outlet’s No. 1 spot. In 10th was new Virginia Tech head coach James Franklin’s move to bring back Brent Pry to be defensive coordinator. Pry was fired as the school’s head coach three games into this past season.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 3:15pm: Burnley vs. Manchester United on USA

• 7pm: Nuggets vs. Celtics on ESPN (or Stars vs. Capitals on TNT)

• 7:30pm: St. John’s vs. No. 1 UConn [WCBB] on truTV

• 9pm: No. 13 Alabama vs. No. 11 Vanderbilt [MCBB] on ESPN2

• 9:30pm: Lakers vs. Spurs on ESPN (or Blues vs. Blackhawks on TNT)