With Haliburton Questionable, Siakam Should Get Even More Opportunities

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Another Wolves home L
- NBA: Siakam should lead
- MLB: Buehler’s steady return
- Soccer: Mbappe’s finale with PSG
- News: Caitlin Clark gets a win

Not to sound like a broken record, but Minnesota’s home performances in the playoffs have been confounding. After building an 18-point lead with just over three minutes left in the first half, the Timberwolves let the Mavericks come all the way back. Luka Doncic’s step-back three pointer with 3 seconds left gave Minnesota its fourth home loss in five games. With the Mavs up 2-0 the series moves to Dallas, which might be a relief for Minnesota.

In today’s newsletter, Jason is covering the Pacers chances with or without Tyrese Haliburton, and they aren’t good either way. Look for Pascal Siakam to carry the load for Indiana, but it likely won’t be enough. In MLB, Jack is tracking Walker Buehler’s road back and Bryce Harper’s opportunity to cause some damage after being ejected in the 1st inning yesterday. And in soccer, Sam is following Kylian Mbappe’s last game with PSG and the final week of the season in La Liga.

Boston Celtics -6.5 (-120 at ESPN Bet)
The Boston Celtics took advantage of the Indiana Pacers in Game 2 of the series, dominating the final three quarters. However, the Celtics really pulled away once Tyrese Haliburton injured his hamstring. He never returned for Game 2, and his status is in jeopardy for Game 3. In addition, the Celtics have forced at least 17.6% of turnovers against the Pacers in both games, which nobody saw happening. If Boston continues to add turnovers on the road and limit foul shots, the Celtics should escape with another win and cover against the Pacers.

Pacers vs. Celtics over 222.5 points (-110 at Caesars)
The over was higher in Games 1 and 2 and cashed. Now we’re headed to Indiana, where the Pacers typically play better basketball. The last time the Pacers were home, they scored an impressive 141.3 points per 100 possessions and added a 61% effective field goal percentage with 43.9% of offensive rebounds against the Knicks in Game 6. In Game 4 at home, the Pacers scored an even more impressive 142.3 points per 100 possessions and added a 68.3% effective field goal percentage. While it’s unlikely the Pacers will play this well against the Celtics, their offense should be in rhythm enough to help the Celtics hit the over. 

Pascal Siakam over 21.5 points (-150 at ESPN Bet)
We don’t know if Tyrese Haliburton will play. However, Pascal Siakam will likely remain the Pacers' main offensive contributor tonight. In this series, Siakam has shot 62.5% from the field on 20 shots per game. He’s also played nearly 37 minutes a night and figures to play 40+ if the game is close. Furthermore, he’s added 26 points per game in this series and is coming off a 13-for-17 night in Game 2, where he drilled both three-point attempts.  

Myles Turner under 7.5 rebounds (-130 at ESPN Bet)
Myles Turner has gone under 7.5 rebounds in four of his last six games. On Thursday, he was a non-factor in Indiana’s loss to the Celtics. Turner played just 24 minutes and finished with eight points and four rebounds. He hasn’t added more than five rebounds in those four of six games. After all, the Celtics rank No. 1 in the NBA in limiting offensive rebounds. They’re also a top-10 squad at earning offensive rebounds. That doesn’t fare well for Turner heading into the rest of the series.

Royals vs. Rays under 8 runs (-115 at FanDuel)
This is a scary under to swallow considering the Royals are red hot at the plate, but Tampa’s Aaron Civale might just be the answer to slow them down. In 94 combined plate appearances against Civale, current Royals hitters are batting just .170 with a .257 xwOBA and a .238 expected slugging percentage. On the other side, Brady Singer has surrendered one run or fewer in four of his last five starts — and seven of his 10 starts this season. The Rays also rank 27th in MLB in batting average (.196) and 29th in OPS (.537) over the last week. 

Michael Lorenzen over 2.5 walks (+120 at DraftKings)
Michael Lorenzen is having a ton of issues with his command this season. The Rangers starter has the seventh-highest walk rate (12.5%) and the 17th-highest out of zone rate (53.1%) in MLB among 126 qualified pitchers. He’s walked at least three batters in five of his seven starts this year. The Twins don’t draw many walks, but they do have the 10th-lowest swing rate in the league. We like this prop at plus money. 

JP Sears under 3.5 Ks (+125 at DraftKings)
JP Sears is starting to struggle of late with nine earned runs and only nine strikeouts over his last three starts for the A’s. The left-hander now ranks in the 20th percentile in strikeout rate (17.3%) and the 22nd percentile in whiff rate (21.3%), and those numbers aren’t likely to improve after this matchup. The Astros have an 18.1% K rate against lefties this year, which is by far the best mark in the league. Current Astros hitters are striking out just 9.9% of the time against Sears in 81 combined plate appearances. 

Bryce Harper over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-130 at DraftKings)
You couldn’t dream of a better spot to back Bryce Harper. For one, the Phillies slugger is batting .400 with two home runs and a 1.258 OPS over the last week. Harper has faced off against Rockies starter Dakota Hudson 13 times. He has seven hits (three singles, three doubles, one homer) and five walks in those 13 plate appearances. Harper was also ejected in the first inning on Friday night, so he’s going to come out today with some extra fire in his belly. 

Phillies first five innings -1.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
Harper isn’t the only one with previous success against Hudson. In 89 combined plate appearances against the right-hander, current Phillies hitters are batting .292 with a .449 xwOBA and a .597 expected slugging percentage. Hudson gave up eight earned runs in 10.2 innings of work against this team last season, and this is an even better version. Aaron Nola will be on the bump for Philly, and he’s surrendered just six hits and two earned runs over his last 16 innings. Look for the Phils to jump on the Rockies early. 

Dodgers @ Reds first five innings under 4.5 runs (-114 at FanDuel)
After undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing the entire 2023 season, Dodgers starter Walker Buehler finally returned to the mound earlier this month. The two-time All-Star looked understandably rusty in his return, but he showed flashes of his old self with seven strikeouts and no earned runs in 6.0 innings of work against the Reds in his last start. Buehler gets another crack at Cincy, which ranks 29th in MLB in batting average (.171) and 27th in OPS (.597) over the last week. On the other side, Hunter Greene is giving up a .120 batting average and a .238 xwOBA in his career against current Dodgers hitters. This has all the makings of a pitchers’ duel.

Adolis Garcia to hit a home run (+330 at FanDuel)
We’re interested in backing the Rangers with a home run prop for a few reasons. The wind is projected to blow strongly out to left-center field in Minnesota with gusts of up to 30 miles per hour. Twins starter Chris Paddack is also giving up the 15th-highest barrel rate (10.3%) in MLB among qualified pitchers, so Texas is going to be licking its chops in this matchup. Let’s roll with Adolis Garcia, who leads the Rangers in home runs (nine) and slugging percentage (.481) against righties, and ranks in the 94th percentile in barrel rate. 

Leverkusen (+107 at BetRivers)
The DFB Pokal gives Bayer Leverkusen a great chance to bounce back from Wednesday’s Europa Cup final. Leverkusen are huge favorites against Kaiserslautern, which shouldn’t be a shock given that they won the Bundesliga and face the team that finished 13th in the second division. Kaiserslautern conceded nearly two goals per game in the Bundesliga 2 and come up against a Leverkusen team who had the best first half record in the Bundesliga this season. Xabi Alonso’s team would have been crushed by their defeat to Atalanta that saw them lose their unbeaten record this season, and they should start fast here as they look for vengeance. 

Real Betis or Draw (+230 at DraftKings)
It’s the final week of the La Liga season and there’s nothing riding on any game, with the champions, European spots and relegated teams already cemented. That makes it hard to find value on any matchup, but there’s one which does offer us an angle: Real Madrid vs. Real Betis. Betis have locked in a spot in the Europa Conference League qualifying, having finished six spots behind the champions Real Madrid. The difference is that Real have a Champions League final taking place in a week’s time and will have their eyes on that. That means we’re likely to see heavy rotation and the players on the pitch will be keen to avoid injury. Also, Real Madrid drew their last La Liga game.

PSG win and Both teams to score (+210 at Bet365)
PSG have won the Coupe De France six times in the past decade and come into this matchup against Lyon having won yet another Ligue 1. Domestically we saw PSG finish 23 points ahead of Lyon, who just managed to get over the line and finish in the final European spot this season. PSG are the far superior team, having won five of the past six meetings. However, Lyon should score even if it’s just a consolation. They have scored in 11 straight games this season and have gone goalless just twice in 2024. 

Kylian Mbappe to score (-118 at BetRivers)
As mentioned, PSG has the advantage over Lyon. The man who can separate the teams is Kylian Mbappe. This is going to be the final time he plays for the Parisian club before a summer move, and he’ll look to go out with a bang. He’s scored 44 goals in 47 games this season, including eight goals in just five games in this competition. Mbappe scored in his last game against Toulouse and will come into today fresh. He’s faced Lyon just once this season but scored a brace and will want to sign off from his PSG spell with a goal and another trophy.

Match covered in our Soccer AM coverage, which is posted on sportmoney.com by 8:30am
on Saturdays and Sundays during the European soccer season:

Manchester City -1 (-120 at FanDuel)
Saturday serves us up a real treat with an FA Cup final between Manchester City and local rivals Manchester United. Man City are heavy favorites for the game and that’s for good reason: Man City won when these two met in last season’s FA Cup final and are likely to win again. The gulf between these two clubs is huge, with City’s 91 Premier League points being 50% more than what their rivals accumulated. City come into this game having lost just one game in 2024 — and that was on penalties. They’ve won each of their last six games by two or more goals and a poor United team shouldn’t be able to stand in their way here.

Manchester City win to nil (+140 at Caesars)
Not only am I tracking City to win by two or more goals, but also by winning to nil. There are a number of reasons for this. Firstly, Manchester United were tied for the lowest-scoring team in the top half of the Premier League this season, and they’ve failed to score in two of their four games this month. Then there’s Man City, who had the second-best defensive record in the Premier League, with an average of less than one goal allowed per game. Importantly, they’ve grown defensively as the season has progressed and have kept clean sheets in five of their past seven games in all competitions. 

Celtic to win (-118 at Bet365)
From the English FA Cup final we’re moving north into Scotland for their FA Cup final, which will see fierce rivals Celtic and Rangers face off at Hampden Park. Celtic finished eight points clear of Rangers in the Scottish Premiership, not only outscoring them but conceding fewer goals too. They’ve also had the edge over Rangers this season, winning three of the four meetings between the clubs, with the other finishing a draw.