Aces Take the Mound All Day in Favorable MLB Matchups and Tracking a Potential Repeat at the Indy 500

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Indy 500 repeat?
- MLB: Sunday night pitchers’ duel
- Soccer: Roma motivation
- News: French Open preview

The Indianapolis 500 begins at 12:45pm ET today with one team earning a front row lockout for just the second time in race history. Team Penske’s Scott McLaughlin was the top qualifier, followed by teammates Will Power and Josef Newgarden. Arrow McLaren drivers are in the next two spots with Alexander Rossi and Kyle Larson starting fourth and fifth. A.J. Foyt’s Santino Ferrucci is the final driver starting from Row 2 in the Greatest Spectacle in Racing.

Last year’s winner Newgarden is the betting favorite at +460, followed by the pole sitter McLaughlin, who had fastest four-lap average pole speed in race history yesterday, at +550. Larson is next at +600, and Indycar series leader Alex Palou qualified 14th and is at +1300.

In today’s newsletter, Craig is following the streaking Royals and a lot of good MLB pitching matchups all day. In soccer, Sam is tracking Roma to have more motivation than the sportsbooks think. And look for our coverage of a must-win game for Minnesota on Sportmoney.com this afternoon as the NBA’s Western Conference finals move to Dallas.

Yusei Kikuchi over 17.5 outs (-135 at DraftKings)
Blue Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi is pitching well in May, posting a 2.22 ERA across 24.1 frames. He’s tasked with salvaging a win against the Tigers, who have a worse record and run-differential at home. Working in Kikuchi’s favor is the Tigers’ fourth-worst OPS (.611) and sixth-worst batting average (.221) against lefties. He has reached 18 outs in seven of his last eight, with the one exception coming against the Orioles (4.1 IP, 1 ER).

Pirates under 3.5 runs (-156 at FanDuel)
The Braves are 12-7 following a loss and it’s difficult to sweep any opponent, let alone one of the Braves’ caliber. Not to mention, Chris Sale is taking the hill to play the role of stopper, having logged seven frames in five of his last seven starts. He has only allowed two earned runs across that span (32 innings) while striking out 35% of batters faced and compiling a microscopic 0.72 WHIP.

White Sox +0.5 first 5 innings (-114 at FanDuel)
Despite the discrepancy in quality between the Orioles and White Sox, we have to appreciate the challenge of completing a four-game sweep on the road. That’s especially true considering the form of White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet, who has surrendered a mere three earned runs and five walks across his last 28 innings. Crochet has enjoyed pitching at home this season, evidenced by opponents’ .182 batting average, and the White Sox have won his last four starts.

Rockies under 3.5 runs (-102 at FanDuel)
The Phillies are turning to Ranger Suarez as they eye the series win in Colorado. Suarez has logged at least six innings in eight of 10 starts overall, and completed at least seven frames in five of his last seven turns. Pitching at Coors Field can be challenging, but Suarez is particularly good at inducing soft contact, keeping the ball on the ground, and limiting walks, so he should be able to avoid big innings.

Mets vs. Giants under 0.5 runs first inning (-130 at FanDuel)
Sean Manaea has only allowed one earned run in the first frame this season, and he’s riding a streak of six straight zeros in the first inning. Logan Webb has put up a zero in six of his last eight, including a start against the Mets on April 23. He needs to navigate Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, who have each homered against him, but they’re a combined 3 for 28 overall.

Joe Musgrove over 1.5 walks allowed (-148 at Caesars)
Even though Padres starter Joe Musgrove has demonstrated better control at home, his 3.07 BB/9 is the highest it's been since 2020, and he’s surrendered at least two free passes in five of nine. Reaching that mark again today doesn’t have to be about poor control — not with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto in their current form. Soto doesn’t need help to draw a free pass, and pitchers have begun working around Judge more frequently in recent series.

Royals +0.5 first 5 innings (-140 at DraftKings)
The Royals have won eight in a row and nine of 10, plus they have a +21 run-differential and 13-11 mark on the road. The Rays, meanwhile, are on the other end of the spectrum in those departments. We’re backing the Royals conservatively due to the difficulty of sweeping an opponent on the road, but we still like the way Michael Wacha is pitching of late (2.37 ERA, 1.05 WHIP in his last three).

Cubs vs. Cardinals under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-120 DraftKings)
The Sunday nightcap promises a quality pitching duel — on paper — between Javier Assad and Sonny Gray. The Cardinals’ Gray owns a 1.13 ERA and .186 BAA at home in 2024. Cubs starter Assad, meanwhile, has yet to surrender more than two earned runs in any of his 10 starts. He also owns a 1.65 ERA across 16.1 career innings against the Redbirds, and current Cardinals hitters are batting .184 against him.

Torino to win (+116 at BetRivers)
Torino head into this final weekend of the Serie A season a full 13 points and four spots in the table behind Atalanta. Torino have won their past two games and have the fourth-best defensive record in Serie A. But we’re taking Torino because of Atalanta’s win over Leverkusen on Wednesday in the Europa League. Winning that game means two things: Firstly, Atalanta have qualified for next season’s Champions League and don’t need to finish in the top five. More importantly, it also means that they will come into this game on the back of heavy celebrations for what was only Atalanta’s second major trophy ever. Back the team without the hangover.

Sporting to win (-105 at FanDuel)
It’s the Portuguese Cup final this Sunday, and we’re looking for Sporting to beat Porto and secure a league and cup double. The Lisbon club won the league with ease and managed to finish above third place Porto by a huge 18 points. Porto might have won the past two cup finals, but they’ve failed to beat Sporting in both meetings this season — with those games finishing as a 2-0 win for Sporting and a 2-2 draw. The champions have the league’s best goalscorer and should be able to come out on top here at good -105 odds.

Viktor Gyokeres to score (+125 at FanDuel)
Speaking of the Liga Portugal’s top scorer, we’re also tracking Sporting’s Viktor Gyokeres to net another goal. He’s scored six goals in four games in the competition so far and will spearhead Sporting’s hopes. Gyokeres dominated the scoring charts in Portugal this season with 29 goals in 33 games since he arriving from Coventry last summer. He’s bagged seven goals in his past four games and comes into today in blistering hot form. If Sporting are going to win this cup then Gyokeres will likely be scoring.

Anderlecht to win (-134 at Bet365)
Barring a near-impossible goal swing, it looks like Club Brugge will win the Belgian Pro League. That said, Anderlecht still have a chance, despite it being slim. They’ve lost just once in their past five games and will fancy their chances against Royal Antwerp. Antwerp have won just once in their past 10 games, losing the other nine matches. The teams have met three times this season and Anderlecht have won twice, with the third being a draw. With the league title on the line, no matter how unlikely, we shouldn’t see Anderlecht slip up.

Roma to win (+260 at BetMGM)
We’ve reached the final game of the 2024 Serie A season. While the champion has been decided, there are currently four teams fighting to avoid the remaining relegation spot. Currently holding the 18th position are Empoli. They’re one point adrift but know that a win over Roma today would keep them in Serie A, thanks to Frosinone and Udinese facing each other (so both teams can’t pick up three points). Empoli are favorites for this game, largely because they’re the only team with something really to play for. But don’t let that fool you. Roma have lost just once in their past five games and they’ll still want to finish clear of hated rivals Lazio, who sit just three points below them. Empoli may have more to play for but with just two wins in their past 11 games, is it really likely? Not to mention the fact Roma won 7-0 when these teams earlier in the season.

Both teams to score (-135 at DraftKings)
Everything is on the line with Frosinone meeting Udinese and the winner guaranteed to remain in Serie A for next season. Currently 16th and 17th in Serie A, these two clubs have both struggled to win games this season — but they’ve seen plenty of goals, although largely in their own nets. This is the definition of a “must-win” game and both teams will do everything possible. We’ve seen both teams to score land in 72.2% of Forsinone’s home games this season and 59.3% of Udinese’s league matches. 

Match covered in our Soccer AM coverage, which is posted on sportmoney.com by 8:30am
on Saturdays and Sundays during the European soccer season:

Leeds to win (+132 at BetRivers)
The Championship playoff final is known as the “richest game in soccer” because of the wealth that the winner will earn by reaching the Premier League. Neither Leeds or Southampton have been out of the league for long, with both going down at the end of the 2022/23 season. Just three points split the teams in the Championship this season, but when playing at their best it was Leeds who were the better team. Leeds were arguably the best team in the Championship but their lack of consistency was poor and cost them automatic promotion. The real difference maker here should be the Leeds’ defense that saw them conceded 20 fewer goals than Southampton.