Derrick White's Doing it All for Celtics as Boston Looks to Complete Sweep

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: NBA sweeps
- NBA: Derrick White pitching in everywhere
- MLB: Blue Jays batters’ good matchup
- News: Acuña Jr. out for season

With both NBA conference finals series at 3-0, we wanted to look at the history of sweeps leading into the NBA Finals. You have to go all the way back to…last year…to find a time when both the East and the West were at 3-0. While the Nuggets finished off the sweep of the Lakers, the Heat had to go all seven games to beat the Celtics. Since the NBA moved to seven game series in conference finals, there has never been two sweeps heading into the NBA Finals.

There have been 24 sweeps in the conference finals since 1947, which account for just over 15% of series. If the Mavericks finish off the Timberwolves in four, Dallas would only be the seventh lower seed in NBA history to sweep a conference finals series. The last time two teams swept their way into the NBA Finals was in 1957, when the Celtics beat the Syracuse Nationals and the St. Louis Hawks beat the Minneapolis Lakers in three game series.

In today’s newsletter, Jason is tracking Game 4 between the Celtics and Pacers to look similar to the rest of the series — Indiana should keep it close and both teams should be able to score. In MLB, Craig is looking for Freddie Freeman and the Dodgers to turn things around, and for quick starts from the Marlins and Reds.

Indiana Pacers +7.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
The Indiana Pacers have covered two of the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals. They haven’t been good enough to win outright and simply didn’t have their closer, Tyrese Haliburton, to save them in Game 3. The Pacers had legitimate chances to win Games 1 and 3 but fell apart in the final minutes to lose. Don’t be surprised if that happens again tonight. But the Pacers likely won’t get embarrassed on their home floor in a win-or-stay-home scenario.

Pacers vs. Celtics over 222.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
All three games in this series have gone over the total. This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. I’ve added the over in every single game as well. The Celtics are second in the NBA in points per 100 possessions and second in effective field goal percentage. They also rank in the top 10 in all five key stats offensively. On the other hand, the Pacers rank No. 1 in points per 100 possessions and lead the NBA with an effective field goal percentage of 58.4%. With a fast pace of play between the Pacers and Celtics, the over will always be the play.

Derrick White over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120 at DraftKings)
Not only is Derrick White third on the Celtics in scoring during the postseason, he’s also averaged nearly five assists and more than four rebounds per game in the Eastern Conference finals. Against the Pacers, White has scored 17 points per game in the postseason while contributing 7.3 assists and five rebounds. Do the math! That’s 29.3 points + rebounds + assists for White in this series. 

Obi Toppin Under 3.5 Rebounds (+110 at DraftKings)
Over the last two games, Obi Toppin has finished with just three rebounds. He’s even hauled in three rebounds in three of his previous five games. While Toppin is getting about 22 minutes a game, he’s still got a super hard matchup when it comes to rebounds. The Celtics rank 4th overall in rebounds allowed to power forwards this year. In addition, Toppin has only added four or more rebounds against the Celtics in 33% of games since last season.

Marlins +0.5 first 5 innings (-104 at FanDuel)
The Padres' 12-15 record following wins suggests they are prone to letdowns. They also enter play with the league’s 4th-worst run differential at home. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 7-3 over their last 10 and have won four straight series, including two on the road. They’ll send lefty Trevor Rogers to the hill against a team that owns the 5th-lowest batting average and OPS against southpaws.

Reds -0.5 first 5 innings (-110 at FanDuel)
The Cardinals endured a rain delay before finishing late on Sunday night and travel to Cincinnati, where they’ll meet a Reds team fresh off a sweep of the Dodgers. The 4:11 pm first pitch doesn’t make for the quickest turnaround of all-time, but it’s less than ideal for the Cardinals. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Redbirds come out a bit flat against a Reds team with every reason to be in rhythm.

Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (-150 at DraftKings)
The Blue Jays got their bats going on Sunday with 11 runs, and we’re looking for the offensive momentum to carry over in Chicago. The White Sox are allowing 5.06 runs per game on the season, including 18 to the Jays across a three-game span last week. They’ll call on Nick Nastrini, who was tagged for eight earned runs over 3.1 frames against the Jays in Toronto on May 22.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 total bases (-115 at DraftKings)
Guerrero is batting .407 in the month of May with five multi-hit games and five extra-base hits over his last nine. Opponents are batting .320 with a .480 slugging percentage against White Sox starter Nick Nastrini across three starts this season. It’s not a large sample size, but considering his form alongside Guerrero’s, it’s reasonable to anticipate Guerrero being in the center of some offensive fireworks.

Dodgers moneyline (-148 at DraftKings)
The Dodgers are in the midst of a five-game skid, including three straight in Cincinnati. There’s no reason to think it’s more than a blip for LA, who won four in a row and six of eight prior to these recent struggles. They have a chance to get back on track at Citi Field against the Mets, who own an 11-16 record and -15 run differential at home, and required a ninth-inning comeback to avoid a second straight series sweep.

Freddie Freeman over 1.5 combined hits, runs, RBI (-150 at DraftKings)
The Dodgers can’t be held down for too long, and there’s often a team like the Mets ready and willing to help an opponent get back on track. Freeman’s numbers aren’t at his typical standard at the moment, but he’s still logging quality at-bats. He’s 5 for 11 against right-hander Tylor Megill and he’s OPSing .971 against right-handers overall. Plus, we're confident that his teammates will do their part to help him reach the over in this spot.

Blake Snell over 1.5 earned runs allowed (-140 at DraftKings)
Blake Snell has yet to complete five frames in any of his four starts for the Giants. His traditional and advanced metrics reveal a number of areas in which he’s struggling. He has an 11.7% walk rate and opponents are slugging .493 against him with a 40% hard hit rate. The Phillies rank sixth in OPS and seventh in batting average against lefties, so they’ll be able to keep pressure on Snell for as long as he’s in the game.