Minnesota Will Need Another Fast Start to Have a Chance against Dallas in Must-Win Game 4

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: Nadal out at French Open
- NBA: Desperate Wolves Need Fast 1st
- MLB: Aaron Judge is still on fire
- News: Ohtani progressing in pitching rehab

Rafael Nadal lost in the first round of the French Open in what might be his last appearance at the tournament he has dominated throughout his career. Nadal, who has only played in four tournaments this year while trying to shake off nagging injuries, was unseeded and got a tough draw — he had to face 4th-seeded Alexander Zverev yesterday. It was only Nadal’s fourth loss at Roland Garros in 18 appearances, as he won the tournament 14 times from 2005-2022. After the match, 37-year-old said there is a "big percentage" that this will be his last French Open, but either way, he’s expected to be back in Paris for the Olympics later this summer.

In today’s newsletter, Chris is covering the Timberwolves must-win game against the Mavericks. He’s tracking a quick offensive start for both teams and for Luka and Kyrie to rack up the assists. On the diamond, Jack is looking at Aaron’s Judge’s incredible past 15 days and Max Fried getting his groove back.

Timberwolves first half +0.5 (-105 at Bookmaker)
The Timberwolves still believe that they have a chance in the Western Conference finals, just ask Anthony Edwards. The 22-year-old is trying to give his team hope, and while it's extremely uncomfortable to take Minnesota full-game, it's not surprising why they've struggled of late. Dallas ranks as one of the best finishing teams in the NBA, while Minnesota is a lowly 22nd in clutch offense. The T-Wolves are most dangerous when they gain an early lead, as they did in the first two first halves of Games 1 and 2. Dallas may end up surging late again, but an ultra desperate Minnesota squad is an angle we like early.

Kyrie Irving over 4.5 assists (-118 at DraftKings)
Kyrie Irving hit a new stride against the Timberwolves, seemingly fired up after Anthony Edwards said he was "looking forward" to defending Kyrie after Minnesota got by Denver. The result has been an aggressive, downhill version of Uncle Drew, resulting in 83 points in the last three games. Game 4 promises to be Dallas' biggest challenge yet, since a gifted and highly motivated Minnesota defense will need to play their hardest to survive. Kyrie averaged over 6 assists per game against OKC, and we expect him to return to a more facilitative form after a big 33-point showing in Game 3.

Luka Doncic over 9.5 assists (+120 at DraftKings)
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combined for 66 of Dallas' 114 points on Sunday, 57% of the Mavericks' total output. Minnesota simply must do something to curtail the production of Dallas' front court, even if it means double-teams or complex zones. Either way, Luka will look to capitalize off the extra attention by becoming more of a passer. He did the same thing in the last three games against OKC and LAC, averaging over 10 assists per game to conclude the previous series. Off just five assists in Game 3, way below his norm (9.8 average this season), regression is coming.

Minnesota vs. Dallas first half over 103 points (-108 at DraftKings)
While Minnesota and Dallas have been very stingy defensively, every game in the Western Conference finals has started off fast. The first three contests gave us 121, 109, and 112 points in the first two quarters, and Minnesota only failed to reach 60 points in Game 3. As methodical and defense-oriented as both programs can be, the series has been more about Minnesota needing to keep up with Luka and Kyrie's prolific scoring, since neither star has been limited by Minnesota thus far. This potential elimination game may end slow, but expect the same aggressive offense from both teams early.

Cubs team total under 3.5 runs (-120 at FanDuel)
It’s a frustrating time to be a Cubs fan, as Chicago’s lineup has been ice-cold for a month. Over the last 15 days, the Cubs rank dead last in MLB in batting average (.189), runs scored, home runs (six) and OPS (.544). They’ve scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games. This is also a brutal matchup against Brewers ace Freddy Peralta. In 117 combined plate appearances against Peralta, current Cubs hitters are batting just .163 with a .280 xwOBA and a .278 expected slugging percentage. 

Luis Arraez to record a hit + Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to record a hit (-114 at DraftKings)
Let’s mix things up with a hit parlay for Tuesday’s MLB slate. Luis Arraez has been scorching hot since jumping from the Marlins to the Padres, as he leads the league in batting average (.436) over the last 15 days. Jesus Luzardo is a tough matchup, but Arraez is batting .324 against lefties since getting traded to San Diego. As for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., he’s batting .435 over the last week with three doubles and a home run. Opposing hitters are batting .319 against White Sox starter Mike Clevinger this season, so Guerrero should be licking his chops.

Blue Jays vs. White Sox over 7.5 runs (-112 at DraftKings)
Considering an over involving the White Sox is always scary, but this is a great pitching matchup for some runs. As we just mentioned, Clevinger is giving up a .319 batting average to opposing hitters this year, which would be the fourth-worst mark in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify. The right-hander has already given up 12 earned runs and four homers in just 16 innings of work. On the other side, current White Sox hitters are batting .348 with a .452 expected slugging percentage against Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman. The wind will also be blowing straight out to center field, so this is a strong combination for an over.

Aaron Judge over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+105 at DraftKings)
This Aaron Judge hot streak is getting ridiculous. Over the last 15 days, the Yankees slugger is batting .432 with seven home runs, 16 runs scored and a 1.635 OPS. He’s scored at least one run in 19 of his last 22 games and recorded at least one hit in 13 of his last 14. This is also a great matchup against Griffin Canning, who ranks in the sixth percentile in average exit velocity (91.4 mph) and the 18th percentile in barrel rate (9.8%). Judge has faced Canning only three times in his career, but one of those at bats ended with a home run. 

Luis Castillo under 1.5 walks allowed (+120 DraftKings)
Luis Castillo has been effective at limiting walks this season. The Mariners starter is on pace to record the lowest walk rate (6.7%) of his career, and he’s gone under 1.5 walks in six of his 10 starts this season. This is a dream matchup for this prop considering Castillo has a minuscule 1.7% walk rate against current Astros hitters in his career. Houston also ranks third in MLB in first-pitch swing rate (36.9%) and sixth in swing rate (48.5%) this year. 

Max Fried over 18.5 outs recorded (+110 at DraftKings)
After a brutal start to the season, Max Fried has found his groove over the last month. The Braves left-hander has surrendered only eight earned runs in his last 42.1 innings of work, and he’s gone over this prop in three of his last four starts. The Nationals have the fourth-worst OPS (.623) against left-handed pitching this year, and current Washington hitters are batting just .176 with a .245 xwOBA in 79 plate appearances against Fried. 

George Springer to hit a home run (+550 at DraftKings)
As if we haven’t picked on Clevinger enough, we’re also interested in fading him with a home run prop because of his 14.8% barrel rate and 37.0% fly ball rate. Let’s roll with George Springer, who isn’t having a great season but does love going up against Clevinger: In 13 career at-bats against the right-hander, Springer is batting .462 with two homers and a double.