Cardinals Struggle Against Over .500 Teams, Judge is Due for Walks

In today’s newsletter…

- Leading Off: NBA Finals early numbers
- MLB: Guardians’ bats on a roll
- News: Porzingis could be back for Finals

The NBA Finals are now set, with the Boston Celtics hosting the Dallas Mavericks for Game 1 next Thursday. The Celtics have rolled through the postseason, winning 12 of 14 games. The Mavericks upset the Thunder and Timberwolves en route to the Finals.

FanDuel has the Celtics as favorites at -225. The sportsbook has Luka Doncic’s chances to score 30+ points in every game at +800, while Jayson Tatum is at +2700 to reach that mark. The Celtics are at +320 to win the series 4-1, which FanDuel has as the most likely outcome, followed by +330 to win 4-3 and +460 to win 4-2. Tatum is the favorite to have the most rebounds in the series at -110, followed by Doncic at +155 Dereck Lively at +1100, and Kristaps Porzingis at +1900.

In today’s newsletter, Craig is tracking pitcher Luis Severino to continue to be the only good thing going for the Mets, and a big night for the Guardians.

Phillies -1.5 (+112 at FanDuel)
The Cardinals went 12-3 on the heels of a seven-game skid that included four defeats at the hands of the White Sox and Mets. Sweeping the Orioles at home was certainly impressive, but they have another test on their hands visiting the Phillies, who are dominant at home. The Redbirds are 9-14 against teams .500 or better, supporting the argument that they’ve bullied poor teams. Meanwhile, the Phils are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park.

Brewers -0.5 first 5 innings (-114 at FanDuel)
The Brewers are clicking right now. They’ve won two straight series, including against Shota Imanaga and the Chicago Cubs, and five of eight games overall. They rank fourth in runs scored per game (5.04) and sixth in home runs per game (1.18). Teams are teeing off against White Sox pitching, and even though starter Erick Fedde has quality numbers overall, his road ERA (5.47) tells the story of someone uncomfortable away from Guaranteed Rate Field.

Guardians over 4.5 runs (-108 at FanDuel)
The Guardians are among the most adept in MLB at turning hits into runs, and they’re racking up both in bunches of late. They’re second in the league in runs per game (5.11) and have been particularly proficient over their last three with 7.67 runs averaged across that span. The statistics suggest they will feast on Nationals left-hander Patrick Corbin, whose ineffectiveness is apparent throughout numerous traditional, advanced, and batted ball metrics.

Tigers under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
This is a play based on Red Sox starter Tanner Houck’s form. He owns a 2.27 ERA across 31.2 May innings. He’s allowed fewer than two runs in four of his last six starts. And in one of those remaining two, he only allowed one run through six innings. The Red Sox may not like playing at home, but Houck owns a 2.25 ERA and threw his April 17 “Maddux” at Fenway Park.

Luis Severino over 17.5 outs (-160 at FanDuel)
Luis Severino has been the brightest spot for the Mets — perhaps the lone bright spot. He has completed at least six frames in five of seven, and is coming off of seven innings and 6.2 innings in his last two starts. It’s about the secondary pitches for Severino, who will aim to utilize an effective slider and changeup against the Diamondbacks — who struggle against those offerings. Finally, Severino is averaging six innings per start at Citi Field.

Yankees over 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-135 at DraftKings)
The Yankees appear to be a troublesome matchup for the Giants and Jordan Hicks. First of all, Hicks’ game is predicated on inducing contact on the ground (53.4% ground ball rate), but the Giants rank dead last in defensive efficiency according to Baseball Reference. Secondly, the Yankees have been successful against Hicks’ primary offerings (sinker and splitter). Finally, Hicks has allowed two or more earned runs in three of his last five starts.

Aaron Judge over 0.5 walks (-125 at DraftKings)
Prior to the last two series against the Angels and Padres (two walks, six games), Judge drew a walk in 11 of 13 contests, totaling 15 over that span. No disrespect to Giancarlo Stanton, whose raw power can rival anyone’s on the planet, but Judge is the guy most capable of depositing a baseball into the outfield seats in spite of the pitcher-friendly environment. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hicks and Co. pitch him carefully.