Trends, Insights and Players to Watch in Today’s 3 CFP Games

We also take a look at the biggest matchups in the NBA slate

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Miami dethrones Ohio State

2. Game of the Day: Orange Bowl is the sportsbooks’ choice for closest CFP quarterfinal

3. By the Numbers: Bettors back Alabama to be within a TD of No. 1 Indiana in Rose Bowl

4. Scouting Report: Players to watch in the Rose and Sugar bowls

5. Overtime: Aaron Rodgers is keeping his options open for next season

1. Leading Off

Happy New Year! There will be a new national champion in college football, as No. 10 Miami upset No. 2 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl 24-14. With the Buckeyes’ loss, in the past two years teams that earned byes in the College Football Playoff are now 0-5.

Miami started the year with a win over then-No. 6 Notre Dame and continued to a 5-0 start and No. 2 ranking, but then lost two of three games and had an uphill climb the rest of the season. It took a controversial poll swap between Miami and Notre Dame in the final rankings of the year, even though neither teams had played that week, for the Hurricanes to even make it to the CFP.

In the first round, Miami traveled to College Station and completely shut down No. 7 Texas A&M 10-3. The Aggies didn’t manage their three points until there were eight minutes left in the game. In yesterday’s Cotton Bowl, Miami ended up as a 9.5-point underdog against the defending national champions but jumped out to a 14-0 first-half lead and never looked back. The Buckeyes hadn’t give up more than 16 points all season before allowing 24 to the Hurricanes.

Miami was ranked second in the country for a reason, and now every team remaining in the CFP (all six of them play today) will be watching out for the Hurricanes. The winner of No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia faces Miami in the Fiesta Bowl next week.

The national championship is now wide open. Indiana is the new favorite to win the title at +260, followed by Georgia (+320), Miami (+460), Oregon (+500), and Texas Tech (+750). Alabama and Ole Miss are both longshots at +1400.

— Abe Rakov

Finally serious about losing weight?

Ready to lose weight with a plan that actually works? MedVi provides highly effective GLP-1 treatments, personalized guidance, and everything you need to see real, consistent fat-loss results.

There are no membership fees, nothing confusing, and no insurance required. Just one simple, science-backed program that helps you get healthier each week.

Start today for only $179 and get free shipping.

Take the Assessment

_{Read all warnings before using GLP-ls. Side-effects may include a risk of thyroid c-cell tumors. Do not use GLP-1s if you or your family have a history of thyroid cancer. In certain situations, where clinically appropriate, a provider may prescribe compounded medication, which is prepared by a state-licensed sterile compounding pharmacy partner. Although compounded drugs are permitted to be prescribed under federal law, they are not FDA-approved and do not undergo FDA review for safety, effectiveness, or manufacturing quality.}

2. Game of the Day

Oregon is the Orange Bowl Favorite Despite Being Ranked Below Texas Tech

The closest College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup spread-wise is No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon in the Orange Bowl, as the Ducks are favored by less than a field goal. Both teams only have one loss on the season, but Oregon has the best-possible defeat considering it fell to the No. 1 team in the country in Indiana (Texas Tech lost at Arizona State).

The Ducks got off to a 34-6 lead against James Madison in the first round of the CFP but played a sloppy second half so the score looked closer than the game (51-34), while the Red Raiders haven’t played since winning the Big 12 championship 34-7 against BYU on December 6th. While both teams are known for high-powered offenses, they also have two of the top defenses in the country — Texas Tech gives up the third-fewest points per game (10.9) while Oregon allows the 7th-lowest yards per game average in the country at 271.4.

No. 5 Oregon (12-1) vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1)
12pm on ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: ORE (-2.5, -114), TTU (+2.5, -106)

  • 56% of the money and 51% of the bets are with ORE

  • ATS | ORE: 8-5, TTU: 12-1

• Moneyline: ORE -134, TTU +114

• Total (50.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • ORE: 7-6, TTU: 5-8

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• ORE QB Dante Moore | Pass Yards: 231.5 (234.3 - 313, 286, 257, 306, 112), Pass TD: 1.5 (2.2 - 2, 0, 1, 0, 1), Rush Yards: 7.5 (15.1 - 5, 11 ,-3, 6, 46)

• ORE WR Malik Benson | Rec Yards: 42.5 (49.6 - 119, 102, 67, 51, 29), Anytime TD: +185 (0.5 - 2, 1, 0, 0, 0)

• TTU QB Behren Morton | Pass Yards: 232.5 (240.3 - 215, 310, 149, 219, 249), Pass TD: 1.5 (2.0 - 2, 3, 1, 1, 2)

• TTU RB Cameron Dickey | Rush Yards: 72.5 (84.2 - 72, 79, 77, 121, 68), Anytime TD: -120 (1.2 - 1, 1, 2, 1, 1)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. By the Numbers

Bettors Backing Alabama to Keep It Close Against Indiana, Celtics Were 9-3 in December

CFB

• No. 9 Alabama (11-3) vs. No. 1 Indiana (13-0)

  • ALA (+7.5, -120), IND (-7.5, -102): 55% of the money and 56% of the bets are with ALA

    • ATS | ALA: 9-5, IND: 8-5

  • Total (47.5) | ALA: 5-9 (31.4 ppg), IND: 8-5 (41.9 ppg)

• No. 6 Ole Miss (12-1) vs. No. 3 Georgia (12-1)

  • MISS (+6.5, -110), UGA (-6.5, -110): 77% of the money and 71% of the bets are with UGA

    • ATS | MISS: 8-5, UGA: 6-7

  • Total (55.5) | MISS: 6-7 (37.5 ppg), UGA: 4-9 (31.9 ppg)

NBA

• Rockets (20-10, 10-8 Away) vs. Nets (10-20, 4-12 Home)

  • HOU (-11, -110), BKN (+11, -110): 78% of the money and 68% of the bets are with HOU

    • ATS | HOU (road): 11-7, BKN (home): 7-9

  • Total (221.5) | HOU: 18-12 (120.5 ppg), BKN: 12-18 (109.7 ppg)

• Heat (18-15, 6-10 Away) vs. Pistons (25-8, 12-2 Home)

  • MIA (+5.5, -112), DET (-5.5, -108): 69% of the money and 64% of the bets are with DET

    • ATS | MIA (road): 9-7, DET (home): 8-6

  • Total (239.5) | MIA: 16-17 (121.0 ppg), DET: 17-16 (119.1 ppg)

• 76ers (17-14, 8-6 Away) vs. Mavericks (12-22, 9-9 Home)

  • PHI (-1, -112), DAL (+1, -108): 89% of the money is with PHI but 54% of the bets are with DAL

    • ATS | PHI (road): 10-4, DAL (home): 10-8

  • Total (213.0) | PHI: 15-16 (116.4 ppg), DAL: 16-18 (113.7 ppg)

• Celtics (20-12, 10-7 Away) vs. Kings (8-25, 5-10 Home)

  • BOS (-9.5, -110), SAC (+9.5, -110): 68% of the money and 62% of the bets are with BOS

    • ATS | BOS (road): 10-7, SAC (home): 5-10

  • Total (227.5) | BOS: 15-17 (116.9 ppg), SAC: 15-18 (111.0 ppg)

• Jazz (12-20, 4-9 Away) vs. Clippers (11-21, 7-8 Home)

  • UTA (+11.5, -106), LAC (-11.5, -114): 69% of the money and 53% of the bets are with UTA

    • ATS | UTA (road): 5-8, LAC (home): 5-10

  • Total (235.5) | UTA: 21-11 (120.4 ppg), LAC: 16-16 (112.1 ppg)

4. Scouting Report

One Player to Watch From Each Team in the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl

• No. 1 Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (vs. No. 9 Alabama)

  • Pass Yards: 217.5 (229.3 - 22, 117, 299, 218, 201), Pass TD: 1.5 (2.5 - 1, 2, 4, 1, 1), Rush Yards: 18.5 (18.5 - -3, 27, -24, 20, 24)

  • ALA - W1 (4-2 vs. AP Top 25) | Pass Yards Allowed: 168.4, Total Yards Allowed: 288.9, Points Allowed: 17.9

  • Notes: The Heisman Trophy winner’s top target, Omar Cooper, is healthy and available, which is good news for Mendoza and Indiana. Prior to an ankle injury that took out the wide receiver in the first quarter of the Big Ten championship, Mendoza had connected with Cooper for a touchdown pass in four straight games. The quarterback threw for 222 yards against Ohio State’s top-ranked defense, so Alabama’s also stellar defense shouldn’t intimidate him.

• No. 9 Alabama QB Ty Simpson (vs. No. 1 Indiana)

  • Pass Yards: 240.5 (250.0 - 232, 212, 122, 147, 326), Pass TD: 1.5 (2.0 - 2, 1, 3, 0, 1)

  • IND - W13 (3-0 vs. AP Top 25) | Pass Yards Allowed: 179.5, Total Yards Allowed: 257.2, Points Allowed: 10.8

  • Notes: Simpson has gone four games without throwing for over 235 yards, but he still has his team in the CFP quarterfinal. During Alabama’s gauntlet of facing four SEC teams ranked in the top 16 in a row earlier this year, he threw nine touchdowns and just one interception, so he knows how to manage a game. Indiana shut down Ohio State’s offense in its last game, but Alabama and Simpson have faced similar defenses this year.

• No. 3 Georgia WR Zachariah Branch (vs. No. 6 Ole Miss)

  • Rec Yards: 61.5 (57.2 - 53, 53, 55, 41, 68), Receptions: 6.5 (5.6 - 5, 5, 4, 6, 8), Anytime TD: +115 (0.4 - 1, 1, 0, 0, 1)

  • MISS - W6 (2-1 vs. AP Top 25) | Pass Yards Allowed: 192.1, Total Yards Allowed: 339.8, Points Allowed: 19.3

  • Notes: Georgia’s passing game has given the Bulldogs exactly what they’ve needed and nothing more. When Georgia beat Ole Miss in October, Branch had eight catches for 71 yards, which is more production that he mustered in his past five games. He’s expected to be a focal point again this time.

• No. 6 Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy (vs. No. 3 Georgia)

  • Rush Yards: 68.5 (105.1 - 87, 143, 224, 49, 167), Anytime TD: -155 (1.6 - 1, 1, 3, 3, 1)

  • UGA - W9 (5-1 vs. AP Top 25) | Rush Yards Allowed: 79.2, Total Yards Allowed: 284.5, Points Allowed: 15.9

  • Notes: Lacy is on a tear, scoring at least one touchdown in his past seven games (averaging 1.7 per week during that span) and rushing for over 140 yards in three of his past five. Georgia bottled him up in the October matchup, as he had 12 carries for 31 yards, by far his worst game of the season. But Lacy managed to score two touchdowns despite being shut down yards-wise.

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

5. Overtime

In the News

• Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers said he thinks he’ll have “one or two” options if he decides he wants to continue playing next season. Rodgers could still lead Pittsburgh to the playoffs with a win on Sunday against the Ravens, but it sounds like he’s unsure if his current team will want him back.

• On Friday the first of two outdoor NHL games this year will take place, as the Panthers play the Rangers at the Marlins’ retractable roof stadium in Miami. The facility will be open-air when the game starts, and on February 1st the Lightning will host the Bruins at the Buccaneers’ Raymond James Stadium.

• There are 16 teams left that have a chance to claim the 14 playoff spots in the NFL, and ESPN’s Aaron Schatz has a rundown of each of them. It’s from a different perspective, though, as he looks at the biggest weakness for each squad.

• Arch Manning ended the season how he started, with pundits calling him the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Manning’s first season as a starter for Texas didn’t pan out how he or his team wanted, but with their win over Michigan in the Citrus Bowl, the Longhorns got to 10 wins and Manning looked like the quarterback he was expected to be. Texas begins next season with a matchup against Texas State before Ohio State visits Austin on September 12th.

• The WNBA and the Women's National Basketball Players Association don’t appear to be close to a deal ahead of a January 9th deadline, according to ESPN. The league says the players’ latest proposal would cause $700 million in losses, while the players say the league isn’t factoring in all revenue when making its projections.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 12pm: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech [CFP Quarterfinal - Orange Bowl] on ESPN

• 12:30pm: Liverpool vs. Leeds on USA

• 3pm: Mammoth vs. Islanders on NHL Network (or Sunderland vs. Manchester City on USA)

• 4pm: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana [CFP Quarterfinal - Rose Bowl] on ESPN

• 7pm: Jets vs. Maple Leafs on NHL Network

• 8pm: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia [CFP Quarterfinal - Sugar Bowl] on ESPN

• 8:30pm: 76ers vs. Mavericks on NBA TV