Knicks Favored in NBA Cup + Early NFL Week 16 Home Underdog Odds

We also have two college basketball guards to watch tonight

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: NBA Cup is on the line in Vegas

2. The Rundown: Decisions on three starting quarterbacks

3. Game of the Day: More on Spurs vs. Knicks matchup

4. By the Numbers: MCBB insights + a look ahead at Week 16 in the NFL

5. Overtime: NFL’s oldest coach is in a rebuilding phase

1. Leading Off

LAS VEGAS — The NBA Cup final tips off tonight at 5:30 p.m. local time (8:30 p.m. ET), and it has no business feeling this big. It’s a mid-December game, it’s a Tuesday, and the team chasing the best record in league history just got knocked out. And yet, the buzz around this matchup is real.

That’s because Victor Wembanyama is back.

The Spurs superstar is the reason the Thunder went home, after he flipped the semifinal in just 21 minutes off the bench during San Antonio’s 111–109 upset of Oklahoma City. Wembanyama didn’t just return, his energy changed the entire game.

Now the Spurs meet the Knicks, winners of nine of their past 10 and just two games behind the Pistons in the Eastern Conference. Wembanyama is still expected to be on a minutes restriction, as he was Saturday in his first game back from a calf injury that sidelined him for nearly a month. But during Monday’s media availability, he said he’s ready to handle a larger workload. Whether that means another appearance off the bench or a return to the starting lineup remains undecided.

Judging by the noticeable amount of Knicks and Spurs gear spotted in the Las Vegas airport and on the Strip yesterday, the NBA Cup has become more than a novelty. Today’s final is a legitimate, stand-alone event. Commissioner Adam Silver has managed to turn one of the sleepiest stretches of the NBA calendar into a few days that actually feel appointment-worthy.

A Tuesday in mid-December isn’t supposed to feel important for the NBA, or even for Las Vegas. But thanks to Silver, Wembanyama, and a suddenly relevant Knicks team, there’s prime-time basketball that matters — at least a little — tonight. The game won’t even count in the standings, but with a repeat NBA championship looking like a near lock for the Thunder despite Saturday’s upset, the NBA Cup trophy might be the only piece of hardware that’s realistically up for grabs this season.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

Decisions on 3 NFL Starting QBs, What’s Next for the Chiefs, and More Stars Hit CFB Transfer Market

• A trio of teams made quarterback decisions, as the Colts announced they’re starting 44-year-old Philip Rivers again on Monday Night after his near win over the Seahawks, the Bengals said Joe Burrow will stay under center despite Cincinnati’s lost season, and the Commanders have shut down Jayden Daniels for the rest of the year. The reasons? Indianapolis still has an outside shot at making the playoffs, and they think the un-retired quarterback gives them a better shot than rookie Riley Leonard. Cincinnati coach Zac Taylor said Burrow is going to keep playing “Because we want to win.” Commanders coach Dan Quinn, on the other hand, refused to say if Daniels would be playing if Washington was in the playoff hunt.

• With quarterback Patrick Mahomes out an extended period of time, tight end Travis Kelce could decide to retire. Is that combination enough to completely retool the Chiefs? Kansas City had one of the best playoff runs in NFL history, but looked shaky last season even when continuing the success — and then fell apart this year. This offseason the team has to decide whether it’s making tweaks or starting over.

• On the college front, two high-profile college quarterbacks entered the transfer portal to become free agents, as Florida’s DJ Lagway and Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola are both hitting the market. Lagway, the former No. 3 overall recruit, played two seasons in Gainesville but never quite lived up to the hype — in part due to nagging injuries. He combined for 28 touchdowns to 23 interceptions, with 4,179 yards and a 62% completion rate. Raiola committed to both Ohio State and Georgia before ending up at Nebraska and having an up-and-down freshman season. Raiola was much improved this year, throwing for 2,000 yards with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions before an injury ended the campaign short after his ninth game.

• Ahead of the NBA’s trade deadline, ESPN’s Bobby Marks’ looks at the questions that each team’s front office are considering the rest of the season. Some highlights: Are the Celtics looking to make moves now that they’re surprisingly contending without Jayson Tatum (15-10, 3rd in the East)? Will the Warriors find a trading partner for Jonathan Kuminga when he is eligible on January 15th? And finally, should the Knicks (and a few other teams) go all-in on Giannis Antetokounmpo to help force Milwaukee’s hand?

• The top seven in the AP Top 25 men’s college basketball poll stayed the same, while 11-0 Nebraska had the biggest climb, jumping eight spots to No. 15. That’s the Cornhuskers highest ranking since 1991. Defending champion Florida is 6-4 and barely hanging on at 23rd after a five-point drop, while Illinois is 18th after falling five spots as well. No. 14 Arkansas had the second-biggest improvement of the week, moving up three spots with an 8-2 record. Arizona, Michigan, Duke and Iowa State remain undefeated and the top four.

3. Game of the Day

Spurs and Knicks Battle for Only Team Hardware Likely Actually Available This NBA Season

All eyes are on Victor Wembanyama after he energized the Spurs off the bench to lead the way in their upset over the Thunder, but the Knicks are actually favored in the NBA Cup championship game. In their one matchup last season, the Knicks won 117-114 in New York but Wembanyama scored 42 points and added 18 rebounds. Both teams are coming in with momentum: The Knicks have won 10 of their past 12 games, and the Spurs have won 10 of their past 13 — even without Wembanyama for all but one of them. Knicks star Jalen Brunson has scored 30+ points in four straight games, while four Spurs players scored 22+ points in their win over OKC on Saturday.

Spurs (18-7) vs. Knicks (18-7)
8:30pm on Prime Video

The Odds

• Spread: SA (+2.5, -110), NYK (-2.5, -110)

  • 53% of the money is with the Knicks but 51% of the bets are with the Spurs

  • ATS | SA: 13-10-2, NYK: 17-8-0

• Moneyline: SA: +120, NYK: -142

• Total (230.5): Over -112, Under -108

  • SA: 14-11, NYK: 13-12

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• NYK G Jalen Brunson | Points: 29.5 (28.8 - 40, 35, 30, 33, 26), Reb: 2.5 (3.1 - 4, 3, 2, 2, 2), Ast: 6.5 (6.4 - 8, 4, 9, 4, 5)

• NYK G Josh Hart | Points: 13.5 (12.4 - 12, 21, 17, 8, 15), Reb: 8.5 (7.7 - 6, 6, 12, 6, 8), Ast: 4.5 (5.0 - 6, 4, 1, 6, 8)

• SA G De'Aaron Fox | Points: 20.5 (23.9 - 22, 20, 14, 25, 31), Reb: 3.5 (3.6 - 2, 4, 4, 5, 5), Ast: 4.5 (6.2 - 4, 3, 7, 9, 5)

• SA G Stephon Castle | Points: 17.5 (18.4 - 22, 30, 18, 4, 13), Reb: 5.5 (6.1 - 6, 10, 5, 0, 9), Ast: 5.5 (6.9 - 2, 6, 5, 5, 6)

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

4. By the Numbers

Four Home Underdogs to Watch in Week 16 in the NFL + MCBB Insights

MCBB

• No. 11 Louisville (9-1, 0-1 Away) vs. No. 20 Tennessee (7-3, 5-0 Home)

  • UL (+1.5, -122), UT (-1.5, +100): 78% of the money and 73% of the bets are with UL

    • ATS | UL: 7-3, UT: 3-7

    • Total (158.5) | UL: 6-4, UT: 6-4

• South Carolina (7-3, 0-0 Away) vs. Clemson (8-3, 6-0 Home)

  • USC (+11.5, -102), CLEM (-11.5, -120): 56% of the money and 54% of the bets are with USC

    • ATS | USC: 4-6, CLEM: 6-5

    • Total (142.5) | USC: 6-4, CLEM: 6-5

NHL

• Mammoth (16-15-3, 8-10-2 Away) vs. Bruins (19-14-0, 11-5-0 Home)

  • UTA (-115) vs. BOS (-105): 75% of the money and 71% of the bets are with BOS

    • ATS | UTA (road): 7-13, BOS (home): 12-4

• Flyers (16-9-6, 6-4-2 Away) vs. Canadiens (17-11-4, 8-8-1 Home)

  • PHI (+120) vs. MON (-142): 65% of the money and 64% of the bets are with MON

    • ATS | PHI (road): 10-2, MON (home): 5-12

NFL Week 16

Today we’re looking ahead at the NFL schedule at four home underdogs:

• Rams (-1.5, -102) vs. Seahawks (+1.5, -120): 55% of the money is with Seattle but 64% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • ATS | LAR (road): 4-2, SEA (home): 4-3

  • Total (44.5) | LAR: 7-7, SEA: 8-6

• Packers (-1.5, -102) vs. Bears (+1.5, -120): 92% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Chicago

  • ATS | GB (road): 2-5, CHI (home): 4-2

  • Total (46.5) | GB: 8-6, CHI: 6-8

• Vikings (-2.5, -122) vs. Giants (+2.5, +100): 74% of the money and 83% of the bets are with Minnesota

  • ATS | MIN (road): 3-3, NYG (home): 3-3

  • Total (43.5) | MIN: 8-6, NYG: 9-5

• Buccaneers (-3, -110) vs. Panthers (+3, -110): 62% of the money is with Carolina but 57% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

  • ATS | TB (road): 4-3, CAR (home): 4-2

  • Total (45.5) | TB: 8-6, CAR: 7-7

Players to Watch

• No. 5 UConn G Solo Ball (vs. Butler)

  • Points: 14.5 (9, 19, 14, 17, 15), Reb: 3.4 (4, 1, 4, 2, 5), Ast: 1.5 (0, 2, 2, 2, 0)

  • Opponent (Butler: 8-2) | Points: 76.0 (249th), Reb: 33.9 (143rd), Ast: 12.9 (146th)

• No. 11 Louisville G Ryan Conwell (vs. No. 20 Tennessee)

  • Points: 19.4 (17, 21, 15, 32, 7), Reb: 4.5 (2, 4, 1, 9, 6), Ast: 2.5 (2, 2, 4, 6, 1)

  • Opponent (UT: 7-3) | Points: 66.0 (36th), Reb: 30.4 (26th), Ast: 10.5 (30th)

*Stats listed are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

5. Overtime

Quotable

“Blindly optimistic as I am, I thought we would come in here and have a big factor on this club, and find success that we would be proud of. Right now, it doesn't feel like that.” — Raiders head coach Pete Carroll. Las Vegas is 2-12 and in contention for the first pick in next year’s NFL Draft in Carroll’s first season in charge. At 74, he’s the oldest coach in the league and said he now realizes he’s in a rebuilding situation, but also doesn’t think his job is on the line: “I don't feel like that at all. I’m well beyond that.”

What to Watch (times ET)

• 7pm: No. 11 Louisville vs. No. 20 Tennessee [MCBB] on ESPN

• 7:30pm: Oilers vs. Penguins on TNT

• 8:30pm: Spurs vs. Knicks in the NBA Cup championship on Prime Video

• 9pm: Troy vs. Jacksonville State [Salute to Veterans Bowl] on ESPN

• 10pm: Avalanche vs. Kraken on TNT