The NFL is Back and We're Tracking the Preseason

In today’s newsletter…

With the Olympics coming to a close this weekend, football is inching closer. Yes, Team USA still has two gold medals to win in basketball over the weekend and is still being challenged by China for most golds overall.

But between Olympics action, there’s a full slate of NFL preseason games to watch (Chris has you covered on that below). College football starts just two weeks from tomorrow, and Abby wrote about how this season will be unlike any other in her column this week. And Jack and Craig have you covered with a full slate of baseball action today.

Brewers team total over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (+105 at DraftKings)
The Brewers are scorching hot against right-handed pitching right now. Since the start of August, Milwaukee has the highest batting average (.357), OPS (1.068) and wRC+ (196) in MLB against righties. Reds starter Carson Spiers is giving up a ton of hard-hit balls lately, surrendering six home runs over his last four starts, and current Brewers are batting .438 against him. 

Marlins moneyline first 5 innings (-110 at DraftKings)
Edward Cabrera’s ERA was 8.26 about a month ago, but he’s pitched much better over the last few weeks. The Marlins starter has given up only 14 hits and six earned runs in his last 20.0 innings of work. On the other side, Martin Perez has really struggled against this Miami lineup in his career. Current Marlins hitters are batting .382 against him with a .385 xwOBA and a 92.1-mph average exit velocity. 

Phillies team total over 4.5 runs (-106 at FanDuel)
Don’t look now, but the Phillies are starting to heat up again. Philadelphia has gone over this line in seven of its last nine games, and this is a solid matchup to attack. In 48 combined plate appearances against Ryne Nelson, current Phillies hitters are batting .386 with a .417 xwOBA and a .586 xSLG. Nelson gave up 10 hits and five earned runs in his most recent start against the Phils. 

Ryne Nelson under 1.5 walks allowed (-145 at DraftKings)
The Phillies have been so good offensively because they’re being aggressive at the plate. Philadelphia has the second-lowest walk rate in MLB against righties this month (5.6%), and that should continue against Nelson. The right-hander ranks in the 82nd percentile in walk rate this season (5.9%), and he’s gone under this line in 12 of his 19 starts. 

Kyle Schwarber + Freddie Freeman to record a hit parlay (-106 at FanDuel)
Kyle Schwarber is as streaky as they come in MLB, and he’s on one of his patented hot streaks right now. The Phillies slugger is batting .447 with eight home runs over the last 15 days, and he has a 52.0% hard-hit rate against righties in that span. As for Freddie Freeman, he’s 6-12 (.500) in his career against Mitch Keller and is batting .429 against righties over the last two weeks. 

Matt Olson to hit a home run (+370 at DraftKings)
It’s been a disappointing season for last year’s home run leader, but Matt Olson is starting to find his power again. The Braves first baseman is slugging .600 with five homers and 10 RBIs over the last 15 days, and he has a 45.5% fly-ball rate against right-handed pitching in that span. Tanner Gordon has given up six home runs through his first four MLB starts, and the wind is projected to blow out to center field at hitter-friendly Coors Field.

This was the first week it truly felt like football season is within our reach. Fresh off of attending the annual 2024 ESPN college football seminar, I’m so ready for Saturdays, the pageantry and sold out stadiums. There is nothing like it. 

This year, the theatrics and the drama will be extended for the longest college football season in history. The long awaited expanded college football playoff is officially here, and it has fans across the country going into the season with a different type of emotion and energy. Could this be THE year that our school wins a National Championship?!

Click here to continue reading Abby’s column on our website

Texans first half -1.5 (+105 at FanDuel)
DeMeco Ryans already stated that he'll be starting his first squad. That means last year's rookie sensation, CJ Stroud, will see playing time, along with Tank Dell, Nico Collins and others. Whether that's one drive or one quarter, Stroud and his hyper-talented counterparts should put up some points, if given the chance. When they exit the field, Davis Mills and Case Keenum are competing for #2 on the QB depth chart, already warmed up after playing next week. Pittsburgh won't play as many starters and it's their first game; a cold open should be expected. We can't look away from Houston early.

Falcons vs. Dolphins over 38.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
This number has been bet higher but it's not high enough. Miami and Atlanta's offenses have been soaring in joint practices all week. On Friday night, they'll finally clash in perfect South Florida weather, 80 and clear. The Dolphins' offense looks potent even in experimentation mode, and they'll be led by Skylar Thompson and Mike White, two guys who are very familiar with Mike McDaniel's playlist. On the other side, Atlanta will start Michael Penix Jr., who's likely formed chemistry with the first team after taking most of the reps in camp. Two mobile QBs in Taylor Heinicke and Nathan Rourke will have a chance to light up the second half, too. 

Eagles vs. Ravens over 34 points (-112 at DraftKings)
34 is a preseason key number, which means more games end at 34 points than most other totals, so we'll steer clear of looking at over 34.5 for more value this time. Jalen Hurts is unlikely to compete; he never touched the field in exhibitions last year. But that's okay: An angry Kenny Pickett has a lot to prove, and although both defenses own beastly depth, the first week of the preseason tends to see softer hitting unless you're a guy on the edge of getting cut. Baltimore has many new parts on offense and plenty of reason to test them out, and storms should subside by gametime. We think this will end at 39.

Commanders -3 (-105 at DraftKings)
Second-time coach Dan Quinn knows he has a talented roster and that he might have the draft's best steal in Jayden Daniels, the show-stopping QB from LSU. They intend on rolling him and many of the starters out on Saturday, willing to test injury for at least a few drives as they get a first glimpse at their new era. He'll be replaced by Marcus Mariota and Jeff Driskel, two seasoned journeymen. The Jets, on the other hand, seem to be playing their card safely. Coach Robert Saleh went as far as benching Aaron Rodgers just because it rained in practice on Wednesday, and recent injury bugs suggests New York is poised to care less about exhibition season.

Raiders -3 (-108 at DraftKings)
Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew are battling it out for the #1 spot, something we love for Vegas' chances on Saturday. O'Connell was the established starter when their last campaign ended, leading his team to 3 wins in their last 4 battles, and Minshew has turned into a 2024-version of Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's not a true starter, but he can move the ball and win games. Minnesota is in development mode, testing out Sam Darnold for the first time and then hoping to show off JJ McCarthy. We don't think that'll go well. The Raiders are defensively-minded behind coach Antonio Pierce, and reports on McCarthy haven't been sterling. This one could get ugly.

Browns -4 (-110 at DraftKings)
Matt LaFleur confirmed he plans on sending out Green Bay's first unit, including Jordan Love. The second-year starter electrified the NFL in 2023, but we doubt he'll see much time on the field. One drive should do it for a guy the entire franchise now depends on. And while the Packers have a great roster, Cleveland's is exceptional, starting with their QBs. Jameis Winston, Tyler Huntley, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson all plan on taking reps. All are experienced, mobile QBs — the kind that thrive in under-talented exhibition games. Cleveland's desperation for a better 2024 and its considerable depth has sharp action tilting the spread their way; we'll follow.

Rams +4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Rams shouldn't be dogs. Matthew Stafford's health is up in the air, that's not great, but Jimmy Garoppolo is probably the NFL's best backup and Stetson Bennett's stock is rising. Teammates are commenting on Bennett's "enormous growth" from year 1 to year 2. Much remains to be seen, but give us any program other than the Dallas Cowboys right now. Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parson, Dallas' three best players, all have contracts up in the air. Energy is low in Jerry-World, with many speculating the Dak Prescott era could be coming to an end. There's a ton of value on the home pooch.

Orioles vs. Rays over 7.5 runs (-115 at FanDuel)
The Orioles rank eighth in MLB in runs scored since August 1, and we like them to continue hitting against Zack Littell and the Tampa Bay Rays. Littell has been respectable against the O’s this season, surrendering six earned runs over 12 innings. However, he has a 1.67 WHIP in those starts. Zach Eflin, meanwhile, pitches against his former team for the first time. If he doesn’t provide length, extra pressure will be placed on the struggling Orioles ‘pen.

Yankees -0.5 first 5 innings (-120 at DraftKings)
Carlos Rodon’s recent form suggests he can play the role of stopper as the Yankees enter tonight’s contest on a two-game slide. He’ll face off against the Rangers, who struggle away from home and against power pitchers. Rodon is very much performing like a power pitcher across his last three starts, racking up a 12.1 K/9 and 35.2% strikeout rate to go along with .152 BAA and 0.80 WHIP.

Rangers under 3.5 runs (+106 at FanDuel)
We’re sticking with Yankees vs. Rangers for one more bet. We talked about Carlos Rodon’s form, and the Rangers’ unfavorable splits. But the Rangers are struggling to break through at the dish of late as well. They’re averaging 4.1 runs per game since the beginning of August and have remained under 3.5 in six of their last 11. The Yankees have a 1.98 bullpen ERA since August 1, so on paper they have what it takes to finish what Rodon starts.

Blue Jays moneyline (-134 at FanDuel)
The home/road splits paint this as a very favorable matchup for the host Blue Jays, who are “only” a game below .500 at home compared to eight games below on the road. The Athletics struggle even more on the road (19-38) and just made the trip east after playing 12 games on the West Coast. Additionally, Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios enjoys pitching in Toronto to the tune of a 2.99 ERA.

Jose Berrios under 5.5 strikeouts (-130 at FanDuel)
We like the Blue Jays — they’re 9-2 in Berrios’ 11 home starts — but we’re not looking for Berrios to rack up a bunch of strikeouts tonight. First of all, he’s producing the worst strikeout metrics of his career overall. He’s also whiffing hitters at a lower rate at home this season. And finally, the Athletics enter play with a relatively stingy 21.8% strikeout rate since the start of August, and an even lower 19.8% rate since the All-Star break.

Cubs over 3.5 runs first 7 innings (+120 DraftKings)
We’re looking at the Cubs going over in this spot despite Garrett Crochet making the start for the White Sox. Length has not been a part of Crochet’s profile in recent weeks. His last start beyond four innings came on June 30. The Cubs may struggle against Crochet, but if he only throws four innings again, he’ll leave a lot of outs to be recorded by a bullpen that has a 6.68 ERA since the All-Star break.

Cubs -0.5 first 5 innings (+118 at FanDuel)
Yes, Garrett Crochet is making the start for the White Sox, but as we touched on above, he isn’t working deep into games. And while we wouldn’t say he’s pitching poorly, his 4.24 ERA and 1.53 WHIP since July 6 provide evidence that he’s been more vulnerable in recent starts. We’re certainly not counting on the White Sox to provide run support either. They’re averaging 3.1 runs per game since the trade deadline.