Both No. 1 Seeds in Action on 1st Day of NFL Divisional Round

We also have insights for 5 MCBB games and look at Australian Open odds

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: After an historically competitive NFL Wild Card Round, look for more of the same

2. Game of the Day: Broncos are now favored at home vs. Bills

3. Scouting Report: Murray has picked up slack for Nuggets with Jokic out

4. By the Numbers: Spread bettors are backing 49ers tonight

5. Overtime: How Indiana ended up with Cignetti

1. Leading Off

Eight teams remain in the NFL playoffs, and we’ll know by tomorrow night who will play for a chance to win Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. As the weekend begins, the Seahawks (+115) have the best chance to advance to their conference championship game, followed by the Rams (+165), Patriots (+200) and Broncos (+250). The 49ers, who would get to play in their home stadium if they win two more games, are the biggest longshot to pull off the feat at +1000.

While the four games this weekend are all expected to be competitive after a historically close slate of Wild Card Round matchups, the conference championship round could be even more unpredictable. According to FanDuel, six of eight potential matchups would start with a spread of just 1.5 points. The two outliers: Chicago would begin as a 6.5-point underdog at Seattle and the 49ers would have the same spread at Los Angeles.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Game of the Day

Banged Up Allen Looks to Return Underdog Bills to AFC Championship Game But Broncos Loom Large

The Broncos started the week as home underdogs despite being the No. 1 seed and winning 13 of 14 games. The market has moved them to the favorite, but not before the bulletin board material was printed. While Denver had last week off to rest, Buffalo got even more banged up in its 27-24 win. Reigning MVP Josh Allen willed his team to that victory, but now sports three different injuries. The quarterback came into the game with a right foot issue and added left knee and right finger ailments last week.

Despite its record, Denver hasn’t gotten much respect from pundits for most of the season. The Broncos only loss since September was a 34-20 defeat to Jacksonville in Week 16 where Denver quarterback Bo Nix threw for a season-high 352 yards. Denver completely shut down the Chargers 19-3 in the last game of the regular season, and had wins over Green Bay and Houston in the second half of the campaign.

No. 6 Bills (12-5, 5-3 Away) vs. No. 1 Broncos (14-3, 8-1 Home)
4:30pm on CBS

The Odds

• Spread: BUF (+1.5, -114), DEN (-1.5, -106)

  • 57% of the money and 61% of the bets are with BUF

  • ATS | BUF (road): 5-4, DEN (home): 5-4

• Moneyline: BUF +100, DEN -118

• Total (46.5): Over-102, Under -120

  • BUF: 9-9, DEN: 7-10

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• BUF QB Josh Allen | Pass Yards: 207.5 (229.3 - 273, 262, 130, 193, 251), Pass Attempts: 29.5 (28.8 - 35, 35, 19, 28), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.6 - 1, 0, 0, 3, 3), Rush Yards: 36.5 (26.2 - 33, 27, 17, 48, 78), Anytime TD: -110 (0.9 - 2, 2, 0, 0, 1)

• BUF RB James Cook | Rush Yards: 76.5 (101.3 - 46, 74, 117, 107, 80), Carries: 17.5 (19.3 - 15, 20, 16, 22, 18), Anytime TD: -110 (0.9 - 0, 0, 2, 3, 0)

• DEN QB Bo Nix | Pass Yards: 210.5 (231.2 - 141, 182, 352, 302, 212), Pass Attempts: 33.5 (36.0 - 23, 38, 47, 34, 38), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.5 - 0, 1, 1, 4, 0), Rush Yards: 25.5 (20.9 - 49, 42, 11, 10, 15)

• DEN WR Courtland Sutton | Rec Yards: 54.5 (63.6 - 40, 86, 113, 62, 62), Receptions: 4.5 (4.6 - 4, 6, 7, 6, 5), Anytime TD: +210 (0.4 - 0, 1, 1, 0, 1)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. Scouting Report

Murray Picking Up Slack With Jokic Out, Holmgren Gets Good Rebounding Matchup

Nuggets G Jamal Murray (vs. Wizards)

• With teammate Nikola Jokic out, Murray has increased his points per game to 30.2 in January from 26.5 last month, and the Nuggets have won three straight. He also had two games this month with 16 and 17 assists, though those are the two matchups where Murray scored under 30 points.

• Points: 27.5 (25.8 - 33, 35, 22, 27, 34), Reb: 4.5 (4.5 - 2, 2, 8, 6, 6), Ast: 9.5 (7.5 - 5, 9, 17, 16, 7)

• WAS - L5 (3-7) | Points Against: 123.9 (29th), Reb Against: 47.8 (30th), Ast Against: 28.9 (29th)

Warriors F Jimmy Butler III (vs. Hornets)

• Butler led the Warriors in scoring last time out for the first time in nearly a month. His 32 points were the most he’s scored since November 18th, and he’s improved his points per game by over three points month over month. Butler scored 19 points and added five rebounds and seven assists when these teams played in the last game of 2025.

• Points: 20.5 (20.1 - 32, 16, 30, 15, 21), Reb: 5.5 (5.6 - 8, 6, 7, 6, 5), Ast: 5.5 (4.9 - 4, 5, 6, 6, 3)

• UTA - L2 (2-8) | Points Against: 127.4 (30th), Reb Against: 45.1 (22nd), Ast Against: 30.6 (30th)

Thunder C Chet Holmgren (at Heat)

• Holmgren isn’t the most prolific scorer on the Thunder and the Heat aren’t awful on defense (but not good, either), so we’re highlighting him specifically for rebounds. Only one team gives up more boards to opponents than Miami, and Holmgren has gone above his season average in four straight, including three double-digit rebound efforts. These teams faced off on Sunday in a 124-112 Thunder win, and Holmgren chipped in 16 points, 10 rebounds, and two assists.

• Points: 17.5 (17.9 - 18, 8, 16, 23, 15), Reb: 9.5 (8.4 - 9, 10, 10, 12, 6)

• MIA - L1 (5-5) | Points Against: 117.8 (22nd), Reb Against: 47.5 (29th), Ast Against: 27.0 (18th)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

4. By the Numbers

Spread Bettors Backing 49ers (8-2 ATS on Road) vs. No. 1 Seahawks + MCBB Games to Watch

NFL

No. 6 49ers (12-5, 7-2 Away) vs. No. 1 Seahawks (14-3, 6-2 Home)

• Spread: SF (+7, -105), SEA (-7, -115)

  • 58% of the money and 68% of the bets are with SF

  • ATS | SF (road): 8-2, SEA (home): 4-4

• Moneyline: SF +270, SEA -335

• Total (44.5): Over -118, Under -104

  • SF: 10-8, SEA: 9-8

Players to Watch

• SF QB Brock Purdy | Pass Yards: 227.5 (240.8 - 262, 127, 303, 295, 295), Pass Attempts: 33.5 (31.6 - 31, 27, 33, 34, 30), Pass TD: 1.5 (2.2 - 2, 0, 3, 5, 3), Rush Yards: 17.5 (16.3 - 24, 21, 28, 11, 44)

• SF RB Christian McCaffrey | Rush Yards: 54.5 (70.7 - 48, 23, 140, 117, 73), Carries: 16.5 (18.3 - 15, 8, 23, 21, 22), Rec Yards: 55.5 (54.4 - 66, 34, 41, 29, 14), Anytime TD: -135 (1.0 - 2, 0, 1, 2, 1)

• SEA QB Sam Darnold (Q) | Pass Yards: 233.5 (240.2 - 198, 147, 270, 271, 249), Pass Attempts: 28.5 (28.1 - 26, 27, 34, 36, 30), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.5 - 0, 1, 2, 0, 3), Rush Yards: 6.5 (5.6 - 9, 2, 7, 5, 23)

• SEA WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Rec Yards: 94.5 (105.5 - 84, 72, 96, 113, 92), Receptions: 6.5 (7.0 - 6, 9, 8, 7, 7), Anytime TD: +100 (0.6 - 0, 0, 1, 0, 2)

MCBB

No. 16 Virginia (15-2, 4-1 ACC) vs. SMU (13-4, 2-2 ACC)

• UVA (-1.5, -110), SMU (+1.5, -110): 82% of the money and 74% of the bets are with UVA

  • ATS | UVA (road): 3-1, SMU (home): 5-6

• Total (153.5) | UVA: 7-10 (84.7 ppg), SMU: 10-7 (88.4 ppg)

Kentucky (11-6, 2-2 SEC) vs. No. 24 Tennessee (12-5, 2-2 SEC)

• KEN (+6.5, -110), TEN (-6.5, -110): 77% of the money and 61% of the bets are with TEN

  • ATS | KEN (road): 0-3, TEN (home): 4-6

• Total (147.5) | KEN: 7-10 (83.1 ppg), TEN: 11-6 (82.6 ppg)

No. 19 Florida (12-5, 3-1 SEC) vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt (16-1, 3-1 SEC)

• FLA (+2.5, -115), VAN (-2.5, -105): 73% of the money and 66% of the bets are with FLA

  • ATS | FLA (road): 2-1, VAN (home): 5-4

• Total (162.5) | FLA: 7-10 (85.5 ppg), VAN: 9-8 (91.3 ppg)

No. 17 Arkansas (13-4, 3-1 SEC) vs. No. 21 Georgia (14-3, 2-2 SEC)

• ARK (+2.5, -110), UGA (-2.5, -110): 55% of the money and 65% of the bets are with ARK

  • ATS | ARK (road): 1-2, UGA (home): 4-7

• Total (182.5) | ARK: 10-7 (90.5 ppg), UGA: 10-7 (96.4 ppg)

No. 11 BYU (16-1, 4-0 Big 12) vs. No. 15 Texas Tech (13-4, 3-1 Big 12)

• BYU (+2.5, -102), TTU (-2.5, -120): 62% of the money is with TTU but 55% of the bets are with BYU

  • ATS | BYU (road): 1-1, TTU (home): 4-5

• Total (150.5) | BYU: 8-9 (87.5 ppg), TTU: 8-9 (83.4 ppg)

Australian Open Tennis

Men’s Tournament

• Winner: Jannik Sinner -125, Carlos Alcaraz +165, Novak Djokovic +1300, Daniil Medvedev +2700, Alexander Zverev +3000, Taylor Fritz +4500

• Reach Semis from Quarter 1: Alcaraz -450, Alexander Bublik +1000

• Reach Semis from Quarter 2: Medvedev +190, Zverev +220, Felix Auger-Aliassime +550

• Reach Semis from Quarter 3: Djokovic +135, Fritz +410, Lorenzo Musetti +600

• Reach Semis from Quarter 4: Sinner -550, Ben Shelton +1200

Women’s Tournament

• Winner: Aryna Sabalenka +180, Iga Swiatek +600, Elena Rybakina +750, Amanda Anisimova +750, Coco Gauff +950, Mirra Andreeva +1600

• Reach Semis from Quarter 1: Sabalenka -220, Victoria Mboko +600, Marta Kostyuk +650

• Reach Semis from Quarter 2: Gauff +185, Andreeva +250, Karolina Muchova +550

• Reach Semis from Quarter 3: Anisimova +250, Madison Keys +370, Jessica Pegula +390

• Reach Semis from Quarter 4: Swiatek +145, Rybakina +200, Belinda Bencic +550, Naomi Osaka +650

5. Overtime

In the News

• Indiana coach Curt Cignetti has orchestrated the most impressive turnaround in college football, and maybe sports, history. Dan Wolken of Yahoo Sport wrote about the bigger schools that regret not hiring Cignetti after his 52-9 run at James Madison. “Biggest f-up ever,” is how an athletic director described it to Wolken.

• ESPN’s Tim Bontemps and Brian Windhorst wrote about the 10 NBA teams that could make the most interesting moves before the trade deadline. Teams have until February 5th to agree to trades, and almost every player in the league became eligible on Thursday. Will the Bucks try to build around Giannis Antetokounmpo or trade him? Is the Grizzlies’ Ja Morant movable? Read the full story to find out.

• The Mets lured away Bo Bichette from the Blue Jays with a three-year, $126 million contract, according to the AP. The shortstop was a two-time All Star in Toronto, but will move to third for New York. And the Phillies convinced catcher J.T. Realmuto to stay with the club with a three-year, $45 million contract. The 35-year-old hit .257 last season and tied for the MLB lead with 132 games behind home plate.

• Like in college football, the NCAA is adjusting the transfer window for men’s and women’s college basketball. The portal won’t open until after a national champion is crowned and will stay active for 15 days, though once a player enters they have as long as they want to commit to a new program. Last year the window opened after the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament and was 30 days long.

• Australian Open reigning champion Madison Keys is looking to return to form Down Under. The American beat No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in last year’s final, but didn’t make it further than the quarterfinals in any other major tournament. “I’m sure going on court I’m going to be very nervous, but I don’t think I’ve ever walked on court first round of a Grand Slam and not been nervous,” Keys said.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 10am: Chelsea vs. Brentford on Peacock

• 12pm: Kentucky vs. No. 24 Tennessee [MCBB] on ESPN

• 12:30pm: Wild vs. Sabres on NHL Network

• 1pm: UCLA vs. Ohio State [MCBB] on CBS

• 2pm: No. 19 Florida vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt [MCBB] on ESPN

• 4pm: No. 17 Arkansas vs. No. 21 Georgia [MCBB] on ESPN2 (or No. 1 Arizona vs. UCF [MCBB] on ESPN)

• 4:30pm: Bills vs. Broncos on CBS

• 6pm: Texas A&M vs. Texas [MCBB] on ESPN

• 7:30pm: Suns vs. Knicks on NBA TV

• 8pm: 49ers vs. Seahawks on FOX

• 10pm: Lakers vs. Trail Blazers on NBA TV