Today’s NBA and CFB Bowl Insights + NFL Playoff Odds

We also highlight three NBA players to watch in our new Scouting Report section

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: How the NFL playoff picture looks after Week 16

2. Game of the Day: Thunder vs. Spurs round 2

3. By the Numbers: Knicks are 7 point underdogs, 3-8 ATS away from MSG

4. Scouting Report: Banchero is back to full allotment of minutes for Magic

5. Overtime: Ranking the 30 college football coaching hires

1. Leading Off

Week 16 in the NFL is complete after the 49ers beat the Colts last night to move to 11-4 and keep pace in the ultra-competitive NFC West. The Indianapolis loss cleared up the playoff picture in the AFC quite a bit, with three more teams earning spots.

Overall, 10 teams have booked their places in the NFL’s postseason, 14 have been eliminated, and eight are fighting for the last four openings. Here’s how things stand:

• In the Playoffs — AFC: Bills, Broncos, Chargers, Jaguars, and Patriots; NFC: Bears, Eagles, Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers

• Eliminated — Bengals, Browns, Cardinals, Chiefs, Commanders, Cowboys, Dolphins, Falcons, Giants, Jets, Raiders, Saints, Titans and Vikings

• In the Hunt

  • AFC

    • Texans (10-5): Houston still has a shot to win the AFC South (+500), but a Wild Card berth is much more likely. The Texans have to lose out to miss out on the playoffs.

    • Steelers (9-6): Only a collapse could take away the AFC North from Pittsburgh (-800) at this point, as the Steelers are two games up on the Ravens with two to play. They close with Baltimore at home, but this week they get the 3-12 Browns.

    • Colts (8-6): Indianapolis only has hope left because they finish the season with a game at Houston, the team they’re chasing. But the Colts face the Jaguars between, which is why their odds to miss the playoffs ballooned to -30000 after Monday Night Football.

    • Ravens (7-8): Baltimore needs to win two tough road games (at Green Bay and Pittsburgh), and also needs that Steelers loss in Cleveland. That’s why their current odds are +650 to win the division.

  • NFC

    • Packers (9-5): All Green Bay has to do is beat the Ravens on Saturday or the Vikings in Week 18 and their ticket to the playoffs is booked (-4000). A loss by Detroit would also get them there.

    • Lions (8-7): Detroit’s only hope for a Wild Card spot (+1500) is to win out (at Minnesota, at Chicago) and for Green Bay to lose out.

    • Panthers (8-7): They control their own destiny in the NFC South but are underdogs (+120) because they have to host the 12-3 Seahawks this week and then travel to Tampa Bay in the finale.

    • Buccaneers (7-8): Despite being under .500, Tampa Bay actually is favored to win the division (-150) because of an easier schedule than the Panthers — the Bucs travel to Miami this week.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. Thank you for your feedback as we moved to Sportspage last week! We’ve added a Scouting Report section starting today to give you more trends, stats, and insights about individual players, and moved In the News back to our Overtime section at the bottom of the newsletter.

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2. Game of the Day

Surging Spurs Have NBA’s Best Current Win Streak at 6 Even With Wemby Still Playing Limited Minutes

No one is exactly panicking in Oklahoma City, but the defending champions, who looked completely unbeatable until 10 days ago, have lost two of four games. The micro-streak of coming down to earth started with a NBA Cup semifinal loss to the Spurs, who the Thunder play in San Antonio again tonight. The Spurs have won an NBA-best six straight and are now just 4.5 games back of the Thunder in the West. Victor Wembanyama has come off the bench in all five games since returning from a 12-game injury absence, playing between 17-25 minutes each time out. He scored 22 points and added nine rebounds in 21 minutes against the Thunder in Las Vegas, but more impressively the Spurs were +21 when he was on the court. These two teams play again on Christmas Day in Oklahoma City.

Thunder (26-3, 12-2 Away) vs. Spurs (21-7, 10-2 Home)
8:30pm

The Odds

• Spread: OKC (-7, -106), SA (+7, -114)

  • 68% of the money is with OKC but 70% of the bets are with SA

  • ATS | OKC (road): 7-7, SA (home): 8-3-1

• Moneyline: OKC -275, SA: +225

• Total (234.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • OKC: 14-14, SA 15-14

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• OKC G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Points: 31.5 (32.5 - 31, 35, 32, 29-SA, 28), Reb: 4.5 (4.7 - 10, 5, 7, 4-SA, 2), Ast: 6.5 (6.4 - 8, 7, 6, 5-SA, 8)

• OKC G Jalen Williams | Points: 19.5 (17.6 - 24, 17, 20, 17-SA, 15), Reb: 5.5 (5.1 - 6, 7, 1, 7-SA, 5), Ast: 5.5 (5.3 - 2, 2, 5, 4-SA, 5)

• SA G Stephon Castle | Points: 15.5 (18.3 - 18, 17, 17, 15, 22-OKC), Reb: 5.5 (5.6 - 5, 2, 2, 7, 6-OKC), Ast: 5.5 (7.2 - 11, 7, 6, 12, 2-OKC)

• SA G Devin Vassell | Points: 12.5 (15.7 - 11, 18, 18, 12, 23-OKC), Reb: 3.5 (4.0 - 6, 7, 6, 5, 5-OKC), Ast: 1.5 (2.5 - 1, 3, 3, 3, 4-OKC)

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

3. By the Numbers

Where Bettors Have Money in Trio of Bowl Games, 6 NBA Matchups Tonight

CFB

• Toledo (8-4) vs. Louisville (8-4)

  • TOL (+8.5, -110), LOU (-8.5, -110): 86% of the money and 80% of the bets are with LOU

    • ATS | TOL: 9-3, LOU: 4-8

  • Total (43.5) | TOL: 6-6 (31.6 ppg), LOU: 5-7 (30.2 ppg)

• Western Kentucky (8-4) vs. Southern Miss (7-5)

  • WKY (-1.5, -106), SOMISS (+1.5, -114): 53% of the money is with SOMISS but 62% of the bets are with WKY

    • ATS | WKY: 9-3, SOMISS: 5-7

  • Total (58.5) | WKY: 6-6 (29.9 ppg), SOMISS: 6-6 (29.8 ppg)

• UNLV (10-3) vs. Ohio (8-4)

  • UNLV (-6.5, -120), OHIO (+6.5, -102): 84% of the bets and 71% of the money are with UNLV%

    • ATS | UNLV: 7-6, OHIO: 6-6

  • Total (66.5) | UNLV: 6-7 (35.9 ppg), OHIO: 6-6 (28.7 ppg)

NBA

• Nets (8-19, 4-8 Away) vs. 76ers (16-11, 9-7 Home)

  • BKN (+10, -110) vs. PHI (-10, -110): 72% of the money and 54% of the bets are with BKN

    • ATS | BKN (road): 6-5-1, PHI (home): 8-8

  • Total (218.5) | BKN: 10-17 (109.1 ppg), PHI: 13-14 (117.0 ppg)

• Bulls (13-15, 6-9 Away) vs. Hawks (15-15, 5-8 Home)

  • CHI (+4, -106) vs. ATL (-4, -114): 66% of the money and 70% of the bets are with CHI

    • ATS | CHI (road): 7-8, ATL (home): 4-9

  • Total (253.5) | CHI: 14-14 (119.5 ppg), ATL: 18-12 (118.7 ppg)

• Raptors (17-13, 9-6 Away) vs. Heat (15-14, 10-4 Home)

  • TOR (+4.5, -110) vs. MIA (-4.5, -110): 75% of the money is with MIA but 55% of the bets are with TOR

    • ATS | TOR (road): 8-7, MIA (home): 8-6

  • Total (228.5) | TOR: 11-19 (113.5 ppg), MIA: 14-15 (120.2 ppg)

• Knicks (20-8, 5-6 Away) vs. Timberwolves (19-10, 11-5 Home)

  • NYK (+7, -110) vs. MIN (-7, -110): 82% of the money and 88% of the bets are with NYK

    • ATS | NYK (road): 3-8, MIN (home): 6-10

  • Total (224.5) | NYK: 16-13 (120.6 ppg), MIN: 13-16 (118.6 ppg)

• Lakers (19-8, 12-4 Away) vs. Suns (15-13, 9-5 Home)

  • LAL (+4.5, -114) vs. PHX (-4.5, -106): 87% of the money and 95% of the bets are with LAL

    • ATS | LAL (road): 10-6, PHX (home): 10-4

  • Total (223.5) | LAL: 18-9 (118.0 ppg), PHX: 13-15 (114.3 ppg)

• Rockets (17-9, 9-7 Away) vs. Clippers (7-21 4-8 Home)

  • HOU (-7, -110) vs. LAC (+7, -110): 57% of the money and 59% of the bets are with LAC

    • ATS | HOU (road): 10-6, LAC (home): 2-10

  • Total (221.5) | HOU: 16-10 (121.0 ppg), LAC: 14-14 (110.6 ppg)

4. Scouting Report

Three NBA Scorers Matching Up Against Bottom-Third Defenses in League

• Magic F Paolo Banchero (at Trail Blazers)

  • Points: 22.5 (20.9 - 21, 23, 26, 25, 18), Reb: 9.5 (8.4 - 12, 9, 16, 8, 7), Ast: 5.5 (4.4 - 7, 9, 10, 3, 4)

  • POR - L1 (4-6) | Points: 121.3 (25th), Reb: 44.6 (16th), Ast: 27.1 (19th)

  • Notes: Banchero scored 28 points on 10-18 shooting and added nine rebounds and three assists when these teams played on November 10th — a 115-112 Magic win. He’s playing a full allotment of minutes again after easing into the lineup in his first three games back after missing two-plus weeks.

• Bulls G Coby White (at Hawks)

  • Points: 21.5 (21.2 - 21, 13, 25, 20, 20), Reb: 3.5 (3.5 - 2, 6, 5, 5, 5), Ast: 4.5 (5.2 - 5, 9, 3, 5, 2)

  • ATL - L3 (3-7) | Points: 119.4 (24th), Reb: 45.6 (24th), Ast: 27.7 (23rd)

  • Notes: These two teams just played on Sunday in Atlanta in the highest-scoring game in the NBA this season (a 152-150 win by Chicago). White scored 21 points on 6-13 shooting (3-7 from three), with two rebounds and five assists.

• Cavaliers G Donovan Mitchell (vs. Pelicans)

  • Points: 30.5 (30.7 - 30, 32, 17, 48, 29), Reb: 4.5 (4.5 - 4, 1, 2, 4, 4), Ast: 5.5 (5.5 - 5, 5, 7, 4, 3)

  • NO - W5 (5-5) | Points: 122.5 (27th), Reb: 44.9 (20th), Ast: 28.8 (28th)

  • Notes: Mitchell made up for one of his worst performances of the season last week against Charlotte (6-24 shooting including 1-11 from three), by scoring 30 points in 29 minutes yesterday in a rematch against the Hornets. The Pelicans have given up less than their season average in points in five of seven games.

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

5. Overtime

In the News

• ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranked all 30 college football coaching hires so far, from the A+ he gave LSU for luring Lane Kiffin away from Ole Miss (however chaotic the process) to his 30th and last-ranked move: former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald to Michigan State. James Franklin to Virginia Tech and Eric Morris to Oklahoma State were two more winners, while he has questions about Pete Golding getting promoted at Ole Miss and Tavita Pritchard earning the head coaching job at Stanford.

• A new professional European basketball league backed by the NBA is getting closer to reality, with a target of an October 2027 start, according to the Associated Press. The NBA and FIBA announced on Monday that they will start working with owners and teams next month to form the league, which will have both permanent teams and spots available for promotion (meaning some teams will be relegated after each season). The AP reports that current target cities include London, Manchester, Paris, Lyon, Madrid, Barcelona, Rome, Milan, Munich, Berlin, Athens and Istanbul.

• The Notre Dame-USC football rivalry is taking a break, as the schools haven’t been able to reach an agreement to play next season and Notre Dame just finalized a deal to play BYU starting in 2026. The Fighting Irish and Trojans have played 96 times, including 79 seasons in a row (not including the COVID year). According to Yahoo Sports, the hangup is about USC not wanting to play late in the season because of College Football Playoff ranking implications of a late loss. The rivalry could restart as soon as 2030, according to the outlet.

• Duke’s first loss of the year brought some movement to the top five of the AP’s Top 25 men’s basketball rankings, as Iowa State (3rd), UConn (4th) and Purdue (5th) each moved up a spot to pass the Blue Devils (6th). No new teams entered the top 10, but 12-0 Vanderbilt inched closer, climbing up two spots to 11th. No 15 Texas Tech had the biggest gain of the week after its one-point win over Duke, climbing four places. Louisville had the biggest fall with a five-slot drop to 16th after losing by 21 to Tennessee last week.

• As we get closer to the end of the year, the top-10 lists are coming in fast and furious. One that caught our eye this morning: ESPN’s MLB Aggrieved Fan Index. Five new teams moved onto the list this year, including the Mets going from unranked to No. 2 for packing “a decade's worth of angst into just the past five months.”

What to Watch (times ET)

• 2pm: Toledo vs. Louisville [Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl] on ESPN

• 4pm: Penguins vs. Maple Leafs on TNT

• 5:30pm: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss [New Orleans Bowl] on ESPN

• 6:30pm: Stars vs. Red Wings on TNT

• 8pm: Nuggets vs. Mavericks on NBC

• 9pm: UNLV vs. Ohio [Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl] on ESPN (or Flyers vs. Blackhawks on TNT)

• 10:30pm: Rockets vs. Clippers on NBC