Insights on Today’s 2 NFL Playoff Games + Players to Watch in Both Matchups

We also highlight Indiana’s historic run to the National Championship game

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: NFL playoffs kick off with Rams and three Super Bowl longshots on slate

2. Game of the Day: Bears looking for 1st playoff win since 2010 against struggling Packers

3. Scouting Report: Young was efficient in upset over Rams in Week 13

4. By the Numbers: Rams are 10.5-point favorites on road, spread bettors are with Panthers

5. Overtime: Indiana won its two CFP games by a combined 94-25 score

1. Leading Off

The NFL playoffs kick off today with a doubleheader featuring rematches between teams that just faced off in the last five weeks of the regular season: The Rams play the Panthers in Charlotte at 4:30pm on FOX then the Packers face the Bears for the third time in six weeks at 8pm on Prime from Chicago. Both home teams are underdogs, though the sportsbooks are giving the 11-6 Bears (+1.5) a lot more respect than the 8-9 Panthers (+10.5).

The Panthers shocked the Rams 31-28 in Week 13 when the Super Bowl hype for Los Angeles was at its loudest after a six game winning streak. Both games between the Packers and Bears were tied in the fourth quarter, with the matchup at Soldier Field going to overtime in a 22-16 Chicago win.

The Rams begin the postseason with the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +440, right behind their division-mates, the Seahawks (+390). The other three teams on today’s slate are seen as longshots, with the Packers at +1800, NFC North champion Bears at +2000 and NFC South-winning Panthers with the 14th and worst odds at +22500.

— Abe Rakov

2. Game of the Day

Bears Are Home Underdogs Against Slumping Packers As They Look for 1st Playoff Win Since 2010 Season

The Packers and Bears are playing for the third time in six weeks, with each team winning at home by a touchdown in those matchups. Chicago’s loss at Green Bay snapped its five-game winning streak and was the Packers’ last victory of the regular season, as they lost the next four — including an overtime defeat to the Bears. The Packers didn’t have quarterback Jordan Love for the second half of that matchup, as he was knocked out with a concussion and missed the past two games as well.

The Bears had won seven of eight before ending the season with two close losses (by four at San Francisco and by three against Detroit). The Packers hadn’t lost four straight since early in the 2023 season, but they still finished 9-8 and won a Wild Card Round matchup before losing to the 49ers in the Divisional Round that year. This is Chicago’s first playoff appearance since the 2020 season, when they lost in the Wild Card Round to the Saints. The Bears haven’t won a playoff game since the 2010 campaign.

Packers (9-7-1, 4-4-1 Away) vs. Bears (11-6, 6-2 Home)
8pm on Prime Video

The Odds

• Spread: GB (-1.5, -114), CHI (+1.5, -106)

  • 72% of the money and 68% of the bets are with CHI

  • ATS | GB (road): 3-6, CHI (home): 5-3

• Moneyline: GB -126, CHI +108

• Total (44.5): Over -115, Under -105

  • GB: 9-8, CHI: 7-10

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• GB QB Jordan Love | Pass Yards: 220.5 (225.4 - 77, 276, 234, 234, 139), Pass Attempts: 30.5 (29.3 - 13, 40, 25, 30, 21), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.5 - 0, 1, 3, 4, 0), Rush Yards: 12.5 (13.3 - 7, 29, -1, 4, 15)

• GB RB Josh Jacobs | Rush Yards: 75.5 (61.9 - 3, 36, 73, 86, 83), Carries: 18.5 (15.6 - 4, 12, 12, 20, 17), Anytime TD: -125 (0.9 - 0, 0, 2, 1, 0)

• CHI QB Caleb Williams | Pass Yards: 208.5 (231.9 - 212, 330, 250, 242, 186), Pass Attempts: 31.5 (33.4 - 33, 42, 34, 28, 35), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.6 - 2, 2, 2, 2, 2), Rush Yards: 21.5 (22.8 - 1, 18, 30, 13, 15)

• CHI RB D’Andre Swift | Rush Yards: 61.5 (67.9 - 40, 54, 58, 98, 63), Carries: 13.5 (13.9 - 10, 9, 13, 18, 13), Anytime TD: +160 (0.6 - 0, 2, 0, 2, 0)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. Scouting Report

Young Was Efficient, Stafford Was Mistake-Prone in Last Head-to-Head + Nacua is Coming in Hot

• Rams QB Matthew Stafford (at Panthers)

  • Stafford had as many interceptions in the Rams’ November 30th loss to the Panthers as in his first 11 games combined: two. He’s had four in the five games since, but three of them were in one game (a loss to Atlanta) — Stafford has only thrown a pick in five games this year. In that loss to Carolina, Stafford was 18-28 for 243 yards and two touchdowns, along with those interceptions. He’s thrown for more yards in each of the five games since, including a 457-yard, three touchdown and no interception day in a loss to Seattle.

  • Pass Yards: 264.5 (276.9 - 259, 269, 457, 368, 281), Pass Attempts: 33.5 (35.1 - 40, 38, 49, 38, 31), Pass TD: 2.5 (2.7 - 4, 3, 3, 2, 4)

  • CAR - L2 (4-6 L10) | Pass Yards Against: 203.9 (15th), Yards Against: 327.2 (16th), Points Against: 22.4 (15th)

• Rams WR Puka Nacua (at Panthers)

  • Nacua had six catches for 72 yards on nine targets in the loss to the Panthers. He exploded in the three next games with 167, 181 and 225 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Nacua was targeted double-digit times in each of the five games after the defeat after having under 10 targets in five of his previous six outings. He’s coming into today with at least one touchdown in three straight.

  • Rec Yards: 90.5 (107.2 - 76, 47, 225, 181, 167), Receptions: 7.5 (8.1 - 10, 5, 12, 9, 7), Anytime TD: -110 (0.6 - 1, 1, 2, 0, 2)

  • CAR - L2 (4-6 L10) | Pass Yards Against: 203.9 (15th), Yards Against: 327.2 (16th), Points Against: 22.4 (15th)

• Panthers QB Bryce Young (vs. Rams)

  • Young was efficient in the win over the Rams, going 15-20 for 206 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. The 75% completion rate was his best of the season, and it was his second game in three where he threw for three touchdowns without an interception. Young had his highest passing-yards total since mid-November in his last game of the season, with 266 yards in the loss to the Buccaneers. He only exceeded today’s yardage total in six of 16 starts.

  • Pass Yards: 192.5 (188.2 - 226, 54, 191, 163, 205-LAR), Pass Attempts: 30.5 (29.9 - 24, 14, 21, 15, 15-LAR), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.4 - 2, 0, 2, 1, 3-LAR), Rush Yards: 18.5 (13.5 - -1, 27, 20, 49, 23-LAR)

  • STL - W1 (7-3 L10) | Pass Yards Against: 216.7 (19th), Yards Against: 327.5 (17th), Points Against: 20.4 (10th)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

4. By the Numbers

Panthers Shocked Rams in Week 13, LA is 10.5-Point Favorite in Wild Card Round

NFL

• Rams (12-5, 5-4 Away) vs. Panthers (8-9, 5-3 Home)

  • LAR (-10.5, -110), CAR (+10.5, -110): 51% of the money and 60% of the bets are with CAR

    • ATS | LAR (road): 5-3, CAR (home): 5-3

  • Total (46.5) | LAR: 10-7 (30.5 ppg), CAR: 7-10 (18.3 ppg)

NBA

• Timberwolves (25-13, 11-7 Away) vs. Cavaliers (21-18, 13-9 Home)

  • MIN (+3.5, -112), CLE (-3.5, -108): 64% of the money is with CLE but 61% of the bets are with MIN

    • ATS | MIN (road): 8-10, CLE (home): 6-16

  • Total (238.5) | MIN: 18-20 (119.6 ppg), CLE: 18-21 (119.2 ppg)

• Heat (20-17, 7-11 Away) vs. Pacers (7-3, 15-15 Home)

  • MIA (-7.5, -112), IND (+7.5, -108): 59% of the money and 58% of the bets are with IND

    • ATS | MIA (road): 10-8, IND (home): 11-9

  • Total (236.5) | MIA: 17-20 (120.1 ppg), IND: 15-23 (110.8 ppg)

• Mavericks (14-24, 4-13 Away) vs. Bulls (17-20, 10-9 Home)

  • DAL (+2.5, -106), CHI (-2.5, -114): 80% of the money and 59% of the bets are with CHI

    • ATS | DAL (road): 5-12, CHI (home): 10-9

  • Total (230.5) | DAL: 16-22 (113.1 ppg), CHI: 16-21 (117.1 ppg)

• Hornets (13-25, 6-13 Away) vs. Jazz (13-24, 9-11 Home)

  • CHA (-5.5, -110), UTA (+5.5, -110): 67% of the money is with CHA but 66% of the bets are with UTA

    • ATS | CHA (road): 11-8, UTA (home): 14-6

  • Total (237.5) | CHA: 14-24 (115.5 ppg), UTA: 23-14 (119.8 ppg)

MCBB

• No. 10 Nebraska (15-0, 4-0 Big Ten) vs. Indiana (12-3, 3-1 Big Ten)

  • NEB (+3.5, -102), IND (-3.5, -120): 59% of the money is with IND but 67% of the bets are with NEB

    • ATS | NEB: 8-7, IND: 8-7

  • Total (149.5) | NEB: 5-10 (81.1 ppg), IND: 8-7 (85.0 ppg)

• No. 21 Tennessee (11-4, 1-1 SEC) vs. Florida (10-5, 1-1 SEC)

  • TEN (+5.5, -110), FLA (-5.5, -110): 54% of the money is with FLA but 60% of the bets are with TEN

    • ATS | TEN: 6-9, FLA: 5-10

  • Total (151.5) | TEN: 9-6 (83.4 ppg), FLA: 5-10 (84.8 ppg)

• No. 7 Houston (14-1, 2-0 Big 12) vs. Baylor (10-4, 0-2 Big 12)

  • HOU (-3.5, -110), BAY (+3.5, -110): 83% of the money and 89% of the bets are with HOU

    • ATS | HOU: 6-9, BAY: 6-7

  • Total (143.5) | HOU: 7-8 (77.3 ppg), BAY: 9-4 (90.7 ppg)

• No. 15 Arkansas (12-3, 2-0 SEC) vs. Auburn (9-6, 0-2 SEC)

  • ARK (+1.5, -115), AUB (-1.5, -105): 68% of the money and 76% of the bets are with ARK

    • ATS | ARK: 11-4, AUB: 9-6

  • Total (171.5) | ARK: 9-6 (90.5 ppg), AUB: 11-4 (87.0 ppg)

NHL

• Rangers (20-19-6, 15-8-2 Away) vs. Bruins (23-19-2, 13-8-1 Home)

  • NYR (+1.5, -230), BOS (-1.5, +184): 92% of the money is with BOS but 54% of the bets are with NYR

    • ATS | NYR (road): 17-8, BOS (home): 14-8

  • Moneyline | NYR +108, BOS -130: 56% of the money and 67% of the bets are with BOS

  • Total (6.5) | NYR: 17-28 (2.58 gpg), BOS: 24-20 (3.16 gpg)

5. Overtime

In the News

• No. 1 Indiana is in the midst of one of the most dominant postseason runs in recent memory, beating No. 5 Oregon 56-22 in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Peach Bowl last night after dispatching of No. 9 Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl last week. Hoosiers’ coach Curt Cignetti is now 26-2 in Bloomington, which is the most wins in the first two seasons at a school since at least the start of the AP college football poll in 1936. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza gets a homecoming for the title game, as it’s being played in Miami, where Indiana will face No. 10 Miami.

• It appeared that Mike McDaniel was safe as the Dolphins’ head coach, but he was fired shortly after John Harbaugh became available. We’ll find out soon if that was a coincidence, but now McDaniel is unexpectedly trying to figure out what’s next. CBS Sports runs through potential options for the coach that finished 35-35 in four seasons in Miami, including the Browns’ head coaching opening and Lions’ offensive coordinator spot.

• The College Sports Commission is unhappy with how the college football transfer portal is going. The regulatory body put out a memo stating that it “has serious concerns about some of the deal terms being contemplated and the consequences of those deals for the parties involved.” The Commission specifically points out that contracts are being agreed to without funding being secured first.

• Brooks Koepka is looking to return to the PGA Tour after leaving LIV Golf last month. Koepka was one of the most high-profile early defectors to the Saudi-backed league in 2022. According to ESPN, “once Koepka reapplies for membership, the tour will start its reinstatement and disciplinary process.” Because the 35-year-old hasn’t been able to earn ranking points while competing in LIV, he’s down to 244th in the world. He was able to enter the four majors because of an exemption for winning the 2023 PGA Championship.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 12pm: No. 21 Tennessee vs. Florida [MCBB] on ESPN

• 1pm: Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers on Prime Video (or Rangers vs. Bruins on ABC or No. 7 Houston vs. Baylor [MCBB] on NBCSN)

• 2pm: No. 24 SMU vs. No. 6 Duke [MCBB] on ESPN

• 4:30pm: Rams vs. Panthers on FOX

• 6pm: No. 15 Arkansas vs. Auburn [MCBB] on ESPN

• 7pm: Panthers vs. Senators on NHL Network

• 8pm: Packers vs. Bears on Prime Video

• 10pm: No. 9 BYU vs. Utah on ESPN