NFL Playoffs Start in Week 18 + NBA, NHL, and MCBB Trends and Odds

We have insights on seven players to watch between the two NFL games on today’s slate

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: NFL playoffs start in Week 18

2. Game of the Day: Purdy averaged nearly 300 passing yards over past 3 games

3. By the Numbers: Spread bettors are backing Panthers on the road

4. Scouting Report: Players to watch in today’s NFC South play-in game

5. Overtime: More than 4,000 college football players entered the transfer portal

1. Leading Off

The NFL moved a pair of playoff-like games to today, as Seattle travels to San Francisco with the winner earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC and Carolina facing Tampa Bay for the NFC South crown and final playoff spot in the conference. The path for the fading Buccaneers got less straighforward after their seventh loss in eight games and the Falcons’ third straight victory last week, as now Tampa Bay needs to win and hope New Orleans beats Atlanta or else Carolina wins the division even with a loss. Both the Falcons and Bucs are three-point home favorites.

Tampa Bay started the season 5-1 and looked to be on a glide path to its fifth-straight division title in a once-again soft NFC South. Instead, the Buccaneers collapsed while the Panthers earned a couple of shocking upsets (at Packers, vs. Rams) and the Falcons came out of nowhere at the end of the season to complicate things while still having no shot at the playoffs themselves. Carolina is looking for its first division title since its 15-1 season in 2015.

Today’s other matchup is more relevant to the conference championship, as the Seahawks are the current favorite (+250) and the 49ers are third (+450) — their NFC West counterparts, the Rams, are second at +310. If San Francisco gets the upset, the team could have home field advantage all the way through the Super Bowl, which takes place at the 49ers’ Levi’s Stadium this year.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Game of the Day

Purdy is Coming in Hot as 49ers and Seahawks Battle for NFC’s No. 1 Seed

The winner of this matchup earns the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the first round bye that comes with it. Both the Seahawks and the 49ers are on six game winning streaks, with San Francisco winning by an average of over two touchdowns during that stretch and Seattle just under (13.3). The 49ers have scored 37 or more points in three straight games, with quarterback Brock Purdy averaging nearly 298 yards in the air and 3.7 touchdowns a game in that span.

San Francisco won 17-13 in Seattle when these two teams played in Week 1. Purdy threw two of his nine interceptions on the year, while Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold was still getting used to his new surroundings in a 16-23 for 150-yard effort. Even though it was his first game, Darnold knew where to throw the ball, as 124 of those yards came from Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s nine catches.

Seahawks (13-3, 7-1 Away) vs. 49ers (12-4, 5-2 Home)
8pm on ABC/ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: SEA (-1.5, -112), SF (+1.5, -108)

  • 68% of the money and 67% of the bets are with SF

  • ATS | SEA (road): 7-1, SF (home): 3-3-1

• Moneyline: SEA -126, SF +128

• Total (47.5): Over -118, Under -104

  • SEA: 9-7, SF: 10-6

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• SEA QB Sam Darnold | Pass Yards: 240.5 (240.6 - 147, 270, 271, 249, 128), Pass Attempts: 30.5 (28.2 - 27, 34, 36, 30, 26), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.6 - 1, 2, 0, 3, 0

• SEA WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Rec Yards: 94.5 (106.8 - 72, 96, 113, 92, 23), Receptions: 7.5 (7.1 - 9, 8, 7, 7, 2), Anytime TD: -110 (0.6 - 0, 1, 0, 2, 0)

• SF QB Brock Purdy | Pass Yards: 242.5 (255.0 - 303, 295, 295, 168, 193), Pass Attempts: 34.5 (32.1 - 33, 34, 30, 29, 32), Pass TD: 1.5 (2.5 - 3, 5, 3, 1, 1), Rush Yards: 15.5 (15.8 - 28, 11, 44, 4, 16)

• SF RB Christian McCaffrey | Rush Yards: 67.5 (73.7 - 140, 117, 73, 53, 89), Carries: 18.5 (18.9 - 23, 21, 22, 20, 24), Receiving Yards: 43.5 (55.6 - 41, 29, 14, 21, 53), Anytime TD: -160 (1.1 - 1, 2, 1, 1, 1)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. By the Numbers

Spread Bettors Backing Panthers, Celtics Have Won 6 of 7 Games

NFL

• Panthers (8-8, 3-5 Away) vs. Buccaneers (7-9, 3-4 Home)

  • CAR (+3, -120), TB (-3, -102): 59% of the money and 61% of the bets are with CAR

    • ATS | CAR (road): 4-4, TB (home): 1-6

  • Total (43.5) | CAR: 7-9 (18.6 ppg), TB: 8-8 (22.8 ppg)

NBA

• Timberwolves (21-13, 9-7 Away) vs. Heat (19-15, 12-5 Home)

  • MIN (-2.5, -112), MIA (+2.5, -108): 95% of the money and 92% of the bets are with MIA

    • ATS | MIN (road): 6-10, MIA (home): 10-7

  • Total (236.5) | MIN: 15-19 (118.8 ppg), MIA: 16-18 (120.9 ppg)

• Rockets (21-10, 11-8 Away) vs. Mavericks (12-23, 9-10 Home)

  • HOU (-7.5, -110), DAL (+7.5, -110): 55% of the money and 57% of the bets are with HOU

    • ATS | HOU (road): 12-7, DAL (home): 10-9

  • Total (226.5) | HOU: 18-13 (120.5 ppg), DAL: 16-19 (113.6 ppg)

• Celtics (21-12, 11-7 Away) vs. Clippers (12-21, 8-8 Home)

  • BOS (+1.5, -110), LAC (-1.5, -110): The money is 50/50 but 53% of the bets are with BOS

    • ATS | BOS (road): 11-7, LAC (home): 6-10

  • Total (220.5) | BOS: 15-18 (117.0 ppg), LAC: 16-17 (112.3 ppg)

NHL

• Penguins (18-12-9, 9-6-4 Away) vs. Red Wings (24-14-4, 14-7-1 Home)

  • PIT (+1.5, -194), DET (-1.5, +156): 83% of the money is with DET but 64% of the bets are with PIT

    • ATS | PIT (road): 14-5, DET (home): 9-13

  • Moneyline | PIT +128, DET -154: 65% of the money and 69% of the bets are with DET

  • Total (6.5) | PIT: 20-18 (3.21 ppg), DET: 21-20 (3.05 ppg)

MCBB

• Kentucky (9-4, 0-0 SEC) vs. No. 14 Alabama (10-3, 0-0 SEC)

  • UK (+5.5, -110), ALA (-5.5, -110): 60% of the money and 67% of the bets are with ALA

    • ATS | UK: 6-7, ALA: 6-7

  • Total (171.5) | UK: 6-7 (84.9 ppg), ALA: 7-6 (94.5 ppg)

• Oklahoma State (12-1, 0-0 Big 12) vs. No. 15 Texas Tech (10-3, 0-0 Big 12)

  • OKST (+11.5, -110), TECH (-11.5, -110): 98% of the money and 67% of the bets are with TECH

    • ATS | OKST: 6-7, TECH: 6-7

  • Total (168.5) | OKST: 9-4 (91.2 ppg), TECH: 6-7 (83.8 ppg)

• No. 19 Tennessee (10-3, 0-0 SEC) vs. No. 18 Arkansas (10-3, 0-0 SEC)

  • UT (+2.5, -110), ARK (-2.5, -110): 83% of the money and 69% of the bets are with ARK

    • ATS | UT: 5-8, ARK: 9-4

  • Total (153.5) | UT: 7-6 (83.9 ppg), ARK: 7-6 (90.5 ppg)

• UCLA (10-3, 2-0 Big Ten) vs. No. 25 Iowa (11-2, 1-1 Big Ten)

  • UCLA (+4.5, -106), IOWA (-4.5, -114): 96% of the money and 79% of the bets are with IOWA

    • ATS | UCLA: 6-7, IOWA: 10-3

  • Total (138.5) | UCLA: 8-5 (81.7 ppg), IOWA: 8-5 (81.2 ppg)

4. Scouting Report

Three Players to Watch in the Winner-Take-All Battle for the NFC South

• Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (vs. Panthers)

  • Pass Yards: 217.5 (218.1 - 346, 145-CAR, 277, 122, 194), Pass Attempts: 31.5 (32.6 - 44, 26-CAR, 34, 30, 28), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.6 - 2, 1-CAR, 2, 1, 1), Rush Yards: 16.5 (21.9 - 16, 49-CAR, 1, 42, 27)

  • CAR - L1 (5-5 L10) | Pass Yards Allowed: 204.3 (14th), Total Yards Allowed: 326.6 (15th), Points Allowed: 22.8 (16th)

  • Notes: Mayfield’s 145 passing yards two weeks ago against the Panthers was his second-lowest output in a full game this season. His worst passing game was just two games before that, so the Buccaneers’ limp to the end of the season (they’ve won just 1 of their last 7 games) and Mayfield’s slowdown have come at the same time. He did pass for 346 yards last week in a loss to the Dolphins, but also had two costly interceptions. Mayfield is almost certainly going to try to win this game on his own, for better or worse.

• Panthers QB Bryce Young (at Buccaneers)

  • Pass Yards: 199.5 (183.0 - 54, 191-TB, 163, 206, 169), Pass Attempts: 30.5 (29.5 - 24, 32-TB, 24, 20, 29), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.4 - 0, 2-TB, 1, 3, 1), Rush Yards: 19.5 (14.5 - 27, 20-TB, 49, 23, 15)

  • TB - L4 (2-8 L10) | Pass Yards Allowed: 236.4 (26th), Total Yards Allowed: 340.5 (20th), Points Allowed: 24.8 (23rd)

  • Notes: Young has 10 touchdowns to three interceptions over his past six weeks and didn’t throw a pick in four of those. His job is to manage games for the Panthers, and he has done it well for most of the second half of the season. He’s coming off his worst performance of the year — 14-24, 54 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT — but was solid in the upset over Tampa Bay two weeks ago with 191 passing yards and two touchdowns.

• Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving (vs. Panthers)

  • Rush Yards: 58.5 (55.9 - 19, 71-CAR, 60, 55, 61), Carries: 15.5 (16.3 - 9, 19-CAR, 16, 15, 17)

  • CAR - L1 (5-5 L10) | Rush Yards Allowed: 122.3 (19th), Total Yards Allowed: 326.6 (15th), Points Allowed: 22.8 (16th)

  • Notes: Irving missed two months with an injury and has been consistent in his return, rushing for between 55 and 71 yards with between 15 and 19 carries in his first four games back. He had nine carries for just 19 yards last week against the Dolphins, but rushed for 71 yards when he faced the Panthers two weeks ago. Irving didn’t score a touchdown on the ground in any of his four December games.

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

5. Overtime

In the News

• The Cowboys got a bargain when they traded a 2026 third-round draft pick for wide receiver George Pickens, but now they’re going to have to pay up. Pickens is having a breakout season for Dallas with 92 receptions for 1,420 yards and nine touchdowns — all career highs by a significant amount. After successful negotiations with quarterback Dak Prescott and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb that resulted in huge, long-term contracts, the Cowboys couldn’t come to an agreement with Micah Parsons this past offseason and decided to trade him. Parsons and Pickens have the same agent, and the wide receiver said he’s “super prepared” for the impending contract talks and “definitely leave that type of stuff to my agent.”

• After firing coach Brian Daboll nearly a two months ago, the Giants have been using the time do develop a list of potential replacements. According to ESPN’s Jordan Raanan, the current possibilities include former Packers and Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy, former Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce, who played for the Giants, and Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, among others.

• With Ole Miss’s upset over Georgia in the College Football Playoff, the Rebels’ coaches who agreed to stay with the team until they lost before heading to LSU with Lane Kiffin are being pulled in multiple directions. The transfer portal opened yesterday, and ESPN reported that “a plan was in place for the other LSU assistants to return to Baton Rouge, Louisiana, to help the Tigers prepare to host prospects in the transfer portal.” But now with Ole Miss unexpectedly getting ready for a CFP semifinal matchup against Miami, there’s some conflict.

• With yesterday’s transfer portal opening, college football players and teams now have until January 16th to reach agreements. More than 4,000 athletes are currently in the portal. Ole Miss quarterback Austin Simmons, who was replaced by Trinidad Chambliss when he was injured and never got the job back, was one of the bigger names and On3 reports that he’s likely to head to Missouri. One of the top players to announce he’s available is Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who has already scheduled visits to LSU and Texas Tech. Arizona State running back Raleek Brown, who was selected to the first-team All-Big 12 list, is a free agent too. The list keeps growing, and you can keep track here.

• The United States’ men’s hockey team announced its Olympic roster, with most players having competed for their country in the NHL’s 4 Nations Face Off last February. The U.S. lost to Canada in the final of that tournament. Just three players who weren’t on that squad were added to the roster: Buffalo center Tage Thompson, Utah center Clayton Keller and Florida defenseman Seth Jones. On the women’s side, Hilary Knight was selected for her fifth Games for Team USA, which is favored to win gold.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 10am: Wolverhampton vs. West Ham on NBCSN

• 11am: No. 21 Virginia vs. NC State [MCBB] on ESPN2

• 12pm: Penguins vs. Red Wings on ABC (or Kentucky vs. No. 14 Alabama [MCBB] on ESPN)

• 12:30pm: Bournemouth vs. Arsenal on NBC

• 1:30pm: No. 10 BYU vs. Kansas State [MCBB] on CBS (followed by No. 6 Duke vs. Florida State)

• 2pm: No. 8 Houston vs. Cincinnati [MCBB] on FOX

• 3pm: No. 19 Tennessee vs. No. 18 Arkansas [MCBB] on ESPN2

• 4:30pm: Panthers vs. Buccaneers on ABC/ESPN

• 5pm: Timberwolves vs. Heat on NBA TV

• 6pm: UCLA vs. No. 25 Iowa [MCBB] on Peacock

• 7pm: Maple Leafs vs. Islanders on NHL Network

• 7:30pm: 76ers vs. Knicks on NBA TV

• 8pm: Seahawks vs. 49ers on ABC/ESPN

• 10:30pm: Celtics vs. Clippers on NBA TV