Monday Night Football Insights and Trends + NBA Odds and Players to Watch

We also look at where bettors have money across both the NFL and NBA

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Breaking down Sunday’s NFL action

2. Game of the Day: Rams need a win to regain momentum

3. By the Numbers: Early look at NFL Week 18 games that matter most

4. Scouting Report: Three NBA players to watch on the road tonight

5. Overtime: Rivers has no regrets despite 0-3 record

1. Leading Off

The Steelers had a chance to guarantee their third playoff appearance in a row and fifth in six seasons. All they had to do was beat the 3-12 Browns, whose only win in the past eight games was against the bottom-dwelling Raiders. Cleveland got out to a 10-0 first quarter lead, which proved to be insurmountable for Pittsburgh, as the team fell to 9-7 after its offense could only muster two second quarter field goals all game.

The Steelers now host the Ravens next week in a winner-takes-all matchup for the AFC North. The NFC South will also be decided head-to-head next week, as the Panthers will travel to the Buccaneers, who have now lost four straight games and seven of eight after falling at the Dolphins. If Tampa Bay can pull itself together and find an elusive win, an 8-9 team will head to the playoffs in the NFC. The early odds have both the Buccaneers and Ravens starting as three-point favorites.

With the Seahawks win over the Panthers and the 49ers victory against the Bears, the winner of the Seattle vs. San Francisco matchup next Saturday night decides the division and the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Both teams have won six straight. The Broncos and Patriots are tied atop the AFC at 13-3, with the Jaguars right behind at 12-4 after their seventh win in a row. There are still four divisions up for grabs, as only the Patriots, Broncos, Eagles and Bears have secured titles leading into the 18th and final week of the regular season.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Game of the Day

Rams Look to Regain Momentum Heading Into Playoffs, Falcons Have Won 2 Straight

After a six game winning streak where they climbed to the top of the Super Bowl contender lists, the Rams are just 2-2 and need a win to regain their momentum. The Falcons are ending the year with some strength, with three of their six wins coming in the past five weeks. Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford, the MVP frontrunner, threw for a season-high 457 yards last week in an overtime loss to Seattle. He has eight touchdowns to one interception over the past three games.

Rams (11-4, 5-3 Away) vs. Falcons (6-9, 2-4 Home)
8:15pm on ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: LAR (-7.5, -105), ATL (+7.5, -115)

  • 82% of the money and 73% of the bets are with LAR

  • ATS | LAR (road): 5-2, ATL (home): 2-4

• Moneyline: LAR -370, ATL +295

• Total (49.5): Over -114, Under -106

  • LAR: 8-7, ATL: 7-8

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• LAR QB Matthew Stafford | Pass Yards: 268.5 (278.6 - 457, 368, 281, 243, 273), Pass Attempts: 33.5 (34.6 - 49, 38, 31, 28, 35), Pass TD: 2.5 (2.7 - 3, 2, 3, 2, 3)

• LAR RB Kyren Williams | Rush Yards: 63.5 (73.3 - 70, 78, 84, 72, 46), Carries: 14.5 (15.6 - 23, 15, 13, 13, 12), Anytime TD: -105 (0.9 - 0, 2, 1, 1, 0)

• ATL RB Bijan Robinson | Rush Yards: 73.5 (83.3 - 76, 93, 86, 142, 70), Carries: 16.5 (16.7 - 16, 19, 20, 23, 14), Rec Yards: 43.5 (51.7 - 92, 82, 8, 51, 37), Anytime TD: -140 (0.5 - 1, 1, 0, 1, 0)

• ATL TE Kyle Pitts Sr. | Rec Yards: 54.5 (56.9 - 57, 166, 90, 82, 25), Receptions: 4.5 (7.1 - 7, 11, 6, 7, 2), Anytime TD: +210 (0.3 - 1, 3, 0, 0, 0)

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

3. By the Numbers

First Look at Two Winner-Takes-All NFL Matchups Next Week + Where NBA Bettors Have Money

NBA

• Nuggets (22-9, 12-4 Away) vs. Heat (17-15, 11-5 Home)

  • DEN (-2, -110), MIA (+2, -110): 88% of the money and 79% of the bets are with DEN

    • ATS | DEN (road): 9-7, MIA (home): 9-7

  • Total (245.5) | DEN: 21-10 (125.8 ppg), MIA: 15017 (120.2 ppg)

• Magic (18-14, 7-8 Away) vs. Raptors (19-14, 9-7 Home)

  • ORL (-2, -106), TOR (+2, -114): 65% of the money and 53% of the bets are with TOR

    • ATS | ORL (road): 7-8, TOR (home): 5-11

  • Total (221.5) | ORL: 17-15 (117.1 ppg), TOR: 12-20 (113.5 ppg)

• Timberwolves (20-12, 8-6 Away) vs. Bulls (15-16, 8-7 Home)

  • MIN (-5.5, -110), CHI (+5.5, -110): 66% of the money is with MIN but 56% of the bets are with CHI

    • ATS | MIN (road): 5-9, CHI (home): 8-7

  • Total (240.5) | MIN: 15-17 (118.8 ppg), CHI: 14-17 (118.8 ppg)

• Hawks (15-18, 10-7 Away) vs. Thunder (27-5, 15-1 Home)

  • ATL (+16.5, -110), OKC (-16.5, -110): 56% of the money and 60% of the bets are with ATL

    • ATS | ATL (road): 10-7, OKC (home): 10-6

  • Total (235.5) | ATL: 19-14 (118.8 ppg), OKC: 15-16 (121.3 ppg)

• Cavaliers (17-16, 6-8 Away) vs. Spurs (23-8, 11-3 Home)

  • CLE (+4.5, -110), SA (-4.5, -110): 70% of the money and 59% of the bets are with SA

    • ATS | CEL (road): 5-9, SA (home): 9-4-1

  • Total (240.5) | CLE: 16-17 (119.5 ppg), SA: 16-16 (120.1 ppg)

• Mavericks (12-21, 3-11 Away) vs. Trail Blazers (13-19, 6-9 Home)

  • DAL (+1.5, -110), POR (-1.5, -110): 85% of the money and 54% of the bets are with DAL

    • ATS | DAL (road): 5-9, POR (home): 8-7

  • Total (235.5) | DAL: 15-18 (113.5 ppg), POR: 18-13 (116.6 ppg)

NFL

We’re looking ahead to check out the early odds for four of the most meaningful games of the final week of the regular season:

• Ravens (8-8, 5-2 Away) vs. Steelers (9-7, 5-3 Home)

  • BAL (-3, -120), PIT (+3, -102): 89% of the money and 67% of the bets are with BAL

    • ATS | BAL (road): 4-3, PIT (home): 4-3

  • Total (42.5) | BAL: 8-8 (25.0 ppg), PIT: 8-8 (23.2 ppg)

• Panthers (8-8, 3-5 Away) vs. Buccaneers (7-9, 3-4 Home)

  • CAR (+3, -114), TB (-3, -106): 55% of the money is with TB but 67% of the bets are with CAR

    • ATS | CAR (road): 4-4, TB (home): 1-6

  • Total (43.5) | CAR: 7-9 (18.6 ppg), TB: 8-8 (22.8 ppg)

• Seahawks (13-3, 7-1 Away) vs. 49ers (12-4, 5-2 Home)

  • SEA (+1.5, -120), SF (-1.5, -102): 73% of the money and 51% of the bets are with SF

    • ATS | SEA (road): 7-1, SF (home): 3-3-1

  • Total (49.5) | SEA: 9-7 (29.4 ppg), SF: 9-6 (26.1 ppg)

• Chargers (11-5, 5-2 Away) vs. Broncos (13-3, 7-1 Home)

  • LAC (+5.5, -102), DEN (-5.5, -120): 96% of the money and 67% of the bets are with DEN

    • ATS | LAC (road): 3-4, DEN (home): 4-4

  • Total (40.5) | LAC: 7-9 (22.8 ppg), DEN: 7-9 (23.9 ppg)

4. Scouting Report

Three NBA Players to Watch on Road Tonight Facing Bottom-4 Defenses

• Suns G Devin Booker (at Wizards)

  • Points: 27.5 (25.4 - 20, 30, 21, 38, 25), Reb: 4.5 (4.2 - 3, 9, 2, 1, 2), Ast: 6.5 (6.5 - 4, 5, 11, 5, 2)

  • WAS - W1 (3-7 L10) | Points Allowed: 125.8 (29th), Reb Allowed: 48.8 (30th), Ast Allowed: 29.5 (29th)

  • Notes: Booker had one of his worst shooting performances of the year last time out, a 6-18 effort, but shot over 47% in four straight prior to that. The Wizards have given up 31, 29, 23, 27 and 37 to opposing leading scorers over their past five games. Booker hasn’t faced Washington this season but went up against the team twice in a 10-day stretch last year, dropping 37 in game one before scoring just 18 (eight of which came from the line) in the second matchup.

• Knicks G Jalen Brunson (at Pelicans)

  • Points: 28.5 (29.5 - 34, 34, 47, 22, 25), Reb: 3.5 (3.3 - 3, 1, 3, 6, 7), Ast: 6.5 (6.4 - 5, 4, 8, 9, 7)

  • NO - L3 (5-5 L10) | Points Allowed: 122.6 (28th), Reb Allowed: 45.9 (24th), Ast Allowed: 29.0 (28th)

  • Notes: Brunson has scored 34 points in two straight games and went for 47 in the one prior, so he’s on a bit of a run. He scored 39 points the last time he faced New Orleans a little over a year ago (shooting 13-19 from the floor). The Pelicans put together a five-game winning streak but then gave up 141 points to Cleveland to start a three game losing skid (115 and 123 back-to-back to Phoenix after that one).

• Timberwolves G Anthony Edwards (at Bulls)

  • Points: 30.5 (29.3 - 28, 44, 38, 24, 26), Reb: 5.5 (5.2 - 7, 6, 2, 4, 12), Ast: 4.5 (3.7 - 2, 3, 2, 6, 3)

  • CHI - L1 (6-4 L10) | Points Allowed: 122.0 (27th), Reb Allowed: 45.5 (22nd), Ast Allowed: 27.7 (24th)

  • Notes: Edwards is having a slightly better time scoring in December than he did in November and is averaging 1.7 more rebounds per game this month. He scored 49 and 33 points when these teams played last season. After giving up 125, 150 and 123 in three straight wins (scoring isn’t the Bulls’ problem), Chicago has locked down a bit over the past two games — the 76ers scored just 102 and then on Saturday the Bucks won 112-103.

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

5. Overtime

In the News

• The Colts are 0-3 since luring 44-year-old quarterback Philip Rivers out of retirement to try and save their season, but to be fair they had lost their three previous games too. Indianapolis is considering starting rookie Riley Leonard in the season finale in Houston now that the playoffs are off the table. Rivers was 17-30 for 147 yards with a touchdown and an interception in a 23-17 loss to Jacksonville on Sunday. “I told you guys I wasn’t going to have any regrets about coming back and I don’t," Rivers said. “Other than us not winning.”

• The Raiders more than did their part to control their own destiny for the No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft, getting blown out 34-10 at home against a Giants team that hadn’t won since October 9th. Las Vegas is now the only two-loss squad in the NFL but closes the season against Kansas City, which has lost seven of eight and averaged just 11.3 points per game over its past four. The Giants, Cardinals, Jets, and Titans currently all have three losses and are waiting in the wings if the Raiders figure out how to win.

• As it turns out, Kyle Whittingham only had to wait one day after announcing he was leaving Utah, but not retiring, before he got the first call about the University of Michigan football head coaching job he would eventually take. “I looked at it as a final challenge,” the 66-year old coach said.

• The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers are off to a slower start with 15 losses in 37 games — only Boston has more (18) in the Atlantic Division — but they’re getting reinforcements soon. Matthew Tkachuk was back in practice on Sunday for the first time since Florida hoisted the Cup, the Associated Press reported. He had 57 points in just 52 regular season games for the Panthers last season and 23 points in their 23 postseason contests.

• American soccer star Christian Pulisic is up to 10 goals in 15 matches for AC Milan in all competitions so far this season after scoring again in a 3-0 win yesterday. His team is now on top of the Italian Serie A table with only one loss in 16 games played. Pulisic, of course, will be headed to the World Cup with the U.S. Men’s National Team when his Italian season concludes.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 2pm: Georgia Southern vs. App State [Birmingham Bowl] on ESPN

• 2:45pm: AS Roma vs. Genoa on CBSSN

• 8pm: Cavaliers vs. Spurs on NBC (or Flyers vs. Kraken on NHL Network)

• 8:15pm: Rams vs. Falcons on ESPN

• 9pm: No. 6 Michigan vs. Oregon [WCBB] on FS1

• 10:30pm: Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers on NBC