NFL Week 15 Insights and Analysis as Nearly Every Game Matters

We have stats, trends and bets to watch across today’s NFL slate

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: What to watch in the NFL today

2. The Rundown: Lions’ Goff is 2-1 against his former team

3. Game of the Day: Patriots can clinch AFC East with a win over Bills

4. By the Numbers: Three players to watch

5. Overtime: Burrow doesn’t seem to be having fun in lost Bengals’ season

1. Leading Off

There’s a lot at stake in Week 15 in the NFL: The first three teams can secure playoff spots, division leads are available, and a dynasty could officially come to an end.

The Rams (vs. Lions) and Broncos (vs. Packers) can both clinch postseason berths with wins at home, while the Patriots can capture the AFC East for the first time since Tom Brady’s last season with the team with a victory against the franchise that has taken the division in each of the five years since, the Bills. The Bears, Eagles, Jaguars, Texans, Panthers, and 49ers all play teams with three wins or fewer, and if they can avoid upsets they’ll stay in the division lead or within a game of the top spot.

And the 9-4 Chargers head to Kansas City not only with a chance to solidify their Wild Card standing, but they could all-but (or actually, depending on other results) end Kansas City’s reign in the AFC. The Chiefs have advanced to the conference championship game every season since 2018, which was also quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ first year as a starter in the NFL. They have been so dominant that they’ve hosted the game all but one of those years.

Even though Kansas City’s playoff chances are already slim, since this would be unchartered territory for the Mahomes-led Chiefs, it’s hard to count them out. That’s likely why Kansas City, despite all of its struggles, is a 5.5-point home favorite against an almost sure playoff team.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

Mendoza Wins Heisman, Wemby Ends OKC’s Streak, and Goff is Back in LA

• As expected, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy. After leading his team to an undefeated regular season, Big Ten championship and top seed in the College Football Playoff, the University of California transfer gave the Hoosiers their first Heisman winner. Mendoza finished with 2,362 first place votes. He was followed by Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia with 1,435 votes, Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love (719) and Ohio State signal caller Julian Sayin (432).

• Victor Wembanyama was dominant in his return after a 12-game absence, earning a plus-21 rating in just 21 minutes off the bench as the San Antonio handed the Oklahoma City its second loss of the season, 111-109. The Spurs will play the Knicks, who beat the Magic 132-120, in the NBA Cup Final on Tuesday in Las Vegas. Oklahoma City had won 16 in a row, eight of which were by 20+, prior to running into the San Antonio, which had four players score 22 or more points in a game that completely changed when Wembanyama entered in the second quarter.

• Lions quarterback Jared Goff is playing the Rams for the fourth time since the team traded him in 2021, with Goff winning two of three. ESPN’s Eric Woodyard wrote about Goff’s journey from Los Angeles to Detroit, and as Goff’s father Jerry noted in the piece: “This whole transition wasn't for everybody. It was a hard deal.” The Rams are atop the NFC, while the Lions could really use a win in Los Angeles to stay in contention in the division and Wild Card.

• Just days after he was called out of retirement, 44-year-old quarterback Philip Rivers is expected to start for the Colts against the Seahawks, 1,800 days since his last game in the NFL. According to CBS Sports, Rivers would be the fifth quarterback to start a game in the NFL at 44 years old or older, joining Tom Brady, Vinny Testaverde, Warren Moon, and Steve DeBerg. Seattle has given up an average of just 11 points per game over their past three matchups. Colts starter Daniel Jones had surgery this week and is expected to be back for training camp ahead of next season.

• The University of Michigan has hired a high-profile law firm to investigate “the practices and culture of its athletic department,” according to an ESPN report. Football coach Sherrone Moore was fired this week after a staff member confirmed a multiyear relationship with the coach, who was also charged with felony home invasion, stalking in a domestic relationship, and breaking and entering this week. But this is just the latest scandal in Ann Arbor. Read the full story to learn about an athletic department in disarray.

3. Game of the Day

Patriots Can End Bills Rein Atop AFC East, But Buffalo is Favored on Road

The Bills have won the AFC East five seasons in a row but need to beat the Patriots to have any shot at keeping that streak alive. New England won 23-20 in Week 5 in Buffalo, which was the first inkling that the Patriots might have turned a corner this year. But even then, nobody outside of Foxboro expected the team to be 11-2 at this point. The Patriots have won 10 games in a row and are fighting not only for the division title, but for the top spot in the AFC. The Bills have won three of four against solid competition and will almost certainly be favored in at least two of their final three games.

Bills (9-4, 3-3 Away) vs. Patriots (11-2, 5-2 Home)
1pm on CBS

The Odds

• Spread: BUF (-1.5, -105), NE (+1.5, -115)

  • The bets and the money are 50/50

  • ATS | BUF (road): 3-3, NE (home): 3-3-1

• Moneyline: BUF -118, NE +100

• Total (48.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • BUF: 6-7, NE: 7-6

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Bills QB Josh Allen | Pass Yards: 228.5 (251, 123, 253, 317, 306), Pass TD: 1.5 (3, 1, 0, 3, 2), Pass Attempts: 29.5 (28, 23, 34, 30, 40), Rush Yards: 37.5 (78, 38, 20, 40, 31)

• Patriots QB Drake Maye | Pass Yards: 233.5 (282, 294, 281, 270, 259), Pass TD: 1.5 (2, 1, 1, 2, 2), Pass Attempts: 29.5 (31, 35, 34, 31, 29),

• Bills RB James Cook III | Rush Yards: 83.5 (80, 144, 116, 48, 53), Anytime TD: -110 (0, 0, 1, 1, 0), Carries: 18.5 (18, 32, 17, 16, 13)

• Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson | Rush Yards: 45.5 (67, 66, 62, 147, 55), Anytime TD: +110 (0, 0, 3, 2, 0), Carries: 10.5 (11, 18, 19, 14, 14)

• Bills TE Dalton Kincaid | Receiving Yards: 42.5 (41, 37, 101, 23, 108), Receptions: 3.5 (4, 2, 6, 1, 6)

• Patriots WR Stefon Diggs | Receiving Yards: 49.5 (26, 20, 105, 46, 38), Anytime TD: +140 (0, 0, 0, 1, 1), Receptions: 4.5 (3, 2, 9, 5, 3)

*Stats listed in parentheses are past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

4. By the Numbers

No. 1, 3rd-Best Road NBA Teams ATS in Action Tonight + 3 NFL Players to Watch

NFL

• Ravens (6-7, 3-2 Away) vs. Bengals (4-9, 2-4 Home)

  • BAL (-2.5, -120), CIN (+2.5, -102): 63% of the money and 66% of the bets are with the Bengals

    • ATS | BAL (road): 2-3, CIN (home): 3-3

  • Total (50.5) | BAL: 6-7, CIN: 8-5

• Chargers (9-4, 3-2 Away) vs. Chiefs (6-7, 5-2 Home)

  • LAC (+5.5, -110), KC (-5.5, -110): 53% of the money and 68% of the bets are with the Chargers

    • ATS | LAC (road): 1-4, KC (home): 4-2-1

  • Total (41.5) | LAC: 6-7, KC: 4-9

• Packers (9-3-1, 4-1-1 Away) vs. Broncos (11-2, 6-0 Home)

  • GB (-1.5, -110), DEN (+1.5, -110): 57% of the money and 56% of the bets are with the Broncos

    • ATS | GB (road): 2-4, DEN (home): 3-3

  • Total (42.5) | GB: 7-6, DEN: 5-8

• Lions (8-5, 3-3 Away) vs. Rams (10-3, 5-1 Home)

  • DET (+5.5, -104), LAR (-5.5, -118): The money is 50/50 but 66% of the bets are with the Lions

    • ATS | DET (road): 3-3, LAR (home): 4-2

  • Total (54.5) | DET: 8-5, LAR: 6-7

NBA

• 76ers (+4.5, -110) vs. Hawks (-4.5, -110): 65% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Philadelphia

  • ATS | PHI (road): 7-2, ATL (home): 4-6

  • Total (228.5) | PHI: 11-13, ATL: 15-11

• Lakers (-3.5, -108) vs. Suns (+3.5, -112): 79% of the money and 78% of the bets are with Los Angeles

  • ATS | LAL (road): 9-4, PHX (home): 9-3

  • Total (228.5) | LAL: 17-7, PHX: 12-13

• Warriors (-4, -108) vs. Trail Blazers (+4, -112): 59% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Golden State

  • ATS | GS (road): 7-8, POR (home): 6-3

  • Total (233.5) | GS: 14-12, POR: 16-9

Players to Watch

• Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (at Bengals)

  • Pass Yards: 228.5 (219, 246, 153, 193, 176), Pass TD: 1.5 (1, 0, 0, 0, 1), Pass Attempts: 29.5 (35, 32, 23, 25, 29), Rush Yards: 33.5 (43, 27, 11, 10, 36)

  • Opponent (CIN - L1) | Pass Yards: 254.9 (31st), Points: 31.8 (32nd)

• Jaguars RB Travis Etienne Jr. (vs. Jets)

  • Rush Yards: 74.5 (74, 28, 86, 73, 58), Anytime TD: -190 (2, 0, 1, 2, 1), Carries: 17.5 (20, 12, 15, 19, 16)

  • Opponent (NYJ - L1) | Rush Yards: 139.5 (30th), Points: 26.8 (27th)

• 49ers QB Brock Purdy (vs. Titans)

  • Pass Yards: 241.5 (168, 193, 200, 309, 277), Pass TD: 1.5 (1, 1, 3, 2, 2), Pass Attempts: 30.5 (29, 32, 26, 38, 35)

  • Opponent (TEN - W1) | Pass Yards: 228.5 (23rd), Points: 27.5 (29th)

*Stats listed in parentheses are past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

5. Overtime

Quotable

“If I want to keep doing this, I have to have fun doing it. I've been through a lot and if it’s not fun, then what am I doing it for? So that's the mindset I'm trying to bring to the table.” — Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. Cincinnati’s star missed nine games this season with turf toe injury, and his team was 3-8 when he returned. Because the AFC North is a struggle this season, the Bengals still had a shot, especially after Burrow led them to an upset win over the Ravens in his first game back. But then, after heading toward an upset of the Bills that would have brought the team to 5-8, Burrow threw two interceptions on two straight passes, likely ending his team’s chances at the postseason and leading to this quote.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 9am: Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City on NBCSN

• 12:30pm: Canucks vs. Devils on NHL Network

• 1pm: Bills vs. Patriots or Chargers vs. Chiefs on CBS

• 4:25pm: Packers vs. Broncos on CBS (or Lions vs. Rams on FOX)

• 7pm: Oilers vs. Canadiens on NHL Network

• 8:30pm: Vikings vs. Cowboys on NBC