Will London Weather Slow Vikings' Quick Start?

In today’s newsletter…

ICYMI Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins had an insane game in Atlanta’s overtime win against Tampa last night: He was 42-58 for 509 yards with four touchdowns. This is what throwing the ball 58 times looks like:

In today’s newsletter, Chris is covering the NFL slate, Jack is tracking tomorrow’s college football games, Sam is following the weekend’s Premier League action and we have a quick rundown of the MLB Division Series matchups.

- Abe Rakov

Packers Still Rank in the Top-5 in 1st Quarter-Points Per Game Despite 0 Last Week

By Chris Farley

Jets moneyline (+120 at BetOnline and Bovada)
Perception is sky high on the Vikings for good reason. They're 4-0, they smash teams early (9.5 1Q ppg, 17.3 1H ppg, both top-3 rankings), and they're #1 in total DVOA. We love Kevin O'Connell and what he's doing in Minnesota, but their opponent is already desperate for a win. Off a loss, a road-trip across the pond is the perfect field trip to galvanize a Jets' program that's already incurring drama. Not to mention, the sloppy weather of Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (rain showers, 50s) is a complimentary venue for New York's defense to slow down the surging Vikes.

Jaguars moneyline (-148 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
The early NFL season has been full of zany variance, so much so that taking the chalk on any team feels like an especially daring move. That's an understatement when you're betting on the Jaguars. Jacksonville is a shocking 0-4. Trevor Lawrence's reputation and Doug Pederson's job are on the line. Indianapolis looked great last week, but the grassy muck of Jacksonville will present a new challenge, and Colts QB Anthony Richardson is banged up. There's a reason the spread hasn't moved all week (remains Jags -3), but we'll fade the spread and look for the home team to finally get their first W.

Bills vs. Texans over 47.5 points (-105 at Bookmaker and DraftKings)
Houston is hobbling into Week 5, which is probably why this total hasn't moved. Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce aren't practicing, Tank Dell is questionable, and multiple offensive linemen are banged up. That might deter some over-bettors, but hear us out. Josh Allen will be motivated to avenge last week's blowout-loss on SNF, and C.J. Stroud's ability to keep games close creates a battle of two elite QBs who can both find ways to outplay the opposing defense. In a dome and on turf, both offenses are in an ideal environment for positive regression.

Packers 1st quarter -0.5 (+114 at DraftKings)
Remember when the Packers outscored the Vikings 22-3 in the final 15 minutes and almost earned a miraculous comeback win last Sunday? So do we. Green Bay stacked up 246 yards in the fourth quarter against Minnesota, which we love for their momentum entering Week 5. After scoring 0 points in the first quarter last week, the Packers still rank in the top-5 in first quarter-points per game (8.3). We love Jordan Love early against an opposing pass defense that ranks in the bottom-4 in opponent pass completion rate and yards per pass, and against an offense that only averages 1.5 points in the first.

Broncos -3 (+100 at BetOnline and Bovada)
It's an uncomfortable feeling taking Denver as a favorite, but here we are. Antonio Pierce can engineer wins when his team is downtrodden, evidenced by their comeback win against Cleveland last week, but this is a terrible spot. Vegas had eight starters out of practice on Thursday, including star pass-rusher Maxx Crosby, and Devante Adams remains out as he looks to join another team. Denver's defense played amazingly well the last two weeks (only 471 yards and 16 points allowed in two wins), Empower Field at Mile-High is a tough venue for any away team, and the Broncos are completely healthy.

Seahawks -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Injuries are stacking up for the New York Giants. Big Blue's rookie wideout sensation, Malik Nabers, hasn't practiced all week as he works through concussion protocol, and starting RB Devin Singletary has a groin injury. Star linebacker Brian Burns and cornerback Dru Phillips have been limited all week. Betting analysts will discuss the Giants' rest advantage as a reason to like them in Week 5, but this is simply a bad matchup. Seattle lost last Monday, but we were still impressed: It was a one-score game in the 4th despite Detroit playing virtually perfect offensive football. This should be 7 or more.

Steelers -1 (-129 at BetOnline)
This game sets up very well for Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. After a loss in Week 4 where they shot themselves in the foot (2 turnovers) and fell short of a comeback victory at Indianapolis, the Steelers return home to face a Cowboys' team that's just not very good this year. Dallas barely eked past the Giants last Thursday, a terrible sign (they outscored New York 89-17 last season), and they'll be without their best two defensive players, DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's defensive line can thrive against a less-talented Cowboys' front. The only way to look is the home team.

MLB Division Series Kicks Off with All Eight Teams Playing on Saturday

With the Wildcard round over, here’s how the MLB Division Series stack up, via DraftKings:

Penn State Running Game Has Plenty of Upside Against UCLA Defense

By Jack Dougherty

Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina over 63.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
If you like up-tempo offense, this game needs to be on your main screen for the noon slate. Pittsburgh and North Carolina rank second and 24th in the country, respectively, in seconds per play this season. Both offenses generate a ton of explosive plays, and the defenses struggled against the best offensive teams they’ve played so far. Pitt gave up 34 points to West Virginia, while North Carolina gave up a whopping 70 to JMU. This should be a track meet.

Kaytron Allen to score 2+ touchdowns (+400 at DraftKings)
Penn State should be able to dominate UCLA in the trenches and run the ball at will, and Kaytron Allen could be the one leading that charge. Running back Nicholas Singleton was absent from practice on Wednesday, and James Franklin didn’t provide any update on why. The Nittany Lions don’t need Singleton on the field to win this game, so they might hold him back if he’s nursing a minor injury.  

Boston College moneyline (-105 at DraftKings)
Can anyone explain why Boston College is an underdog in this matchup? The Eagles are 3-1 with Thomas Castellanos under center, and their only loss came by six points on the road against No. 9 Missouri. Even without Castellanos last week, BC rallied from 13 points down in the fourth quarter to knock off Western Kentucky. This is a gritty team that knows how to win close games under Bill O’Brien, and you can’t say the same for Virginia under Tony Elliott. Look at the better quarterback and head coach. 

Rutgers +7 (-112 at DraftKings)
The total for the Rutgers vs. Nebraska matchup has come crashing down from 44.5 to 40.5 due to projected windy conditions in Lincoln this Saturday. The forecast calls for steady 20-mph winds with gusts up to 46 mph, which will make it tough for both offenses to move the ball and put up points. Dylan Raiola and Athan Kaliakmanis probably won’t be able to air it out downfield, and both teams will likely go for it on fourth downs instead of trusting the kickers in heavy winds. The weather should make this a run-heavy, low-scoring game, making the underdog even more valuable. 

Clemson -14.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
Florida State is deader than dead. The Seminoles are now 1-4 after a blowout loss to SMU, and their only win came against Cal when they were outgained 410-284. DJ Uiagalelei has been ruled out with a broken finger, paving the way for Brock Glenn to make his first start since last year’s Orange Bowl. Glenn was an atrocious 9-26 for 139 yards and two interceptions in that game. We doubt he can keep up with a Clemson offense that’s averaging 55.0 points and 546.7 yards per game since losing to Georgia in Week 1. 

Washington moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)
Michigan can’t keep getting away with this. Run-heavy doesn’t even begin to describe this offense, as quarterback Alex Orji has attempted only 30 passes and recorded 118 passing yards through two starts. The Wolverines’ play sheet says only one thing: Give the ball to Kalel Mullings up the middle until he breaks one. Well, Washington is allowing just 3.6 yards per carry this season. Washington QB Will Rogers can beat this defense down the field, and Michigan doesn’t stand a chance if it falls behind early. 

California +10.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Death, taxes and Justin Wilcox as an underdog. Cal has been a double-digit underdog 21 times under Wilcox, and it’s gone 14-7 against the spread with five outright wins. In home games as a double-digit dog, Wilcox is 5-1 ATS with two outright victories. Miami finally showed some cracks last week when the Hurricanes gave up 206 rushing yards to Virginia Tech, so this will be a busy game for star running back Jaydn Ott. The Golden Bears also have the rest advantage coming off their bye week, while the Hurricanes have to travel across the country.

Haaland Already Has 10 League Goals This Season

By Sam Farley

Mohamed Salah over 1.5 shots on target (+120 at Bet365)
Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has had a brilliant start to life under new manager Arne Slot and looks back to his very best in that famous red shirt. He’s scored four in six Premier League games but what’s been notable is how often he’s shooting, with 3.3 efforts per game and an impressive 2.36 shots on target per 90 minutes played.

Arsenal to win and Both teams to score – No (-125 at Bet365)
Arsenal head into the weekend firmly in the title race and should be confident about facing Southampton at the Emirates. They’ve been exceptional defensively recently, with their Champions League performance against PSG showing the defensive steel they now have. The Saints have scored the fewest goals in the Premier League and shouldn’t test Arsenal.

Bryan Mbeumo to score first (+550 at FanDuel)
Brentford haven’t been in the best form but face the perfect opposition in Wolves, who have given up a Premier League-high 16 goals through six games this season. Over 50% of Brentford’s eight goals have come from Bryan Mbeumo, with the Frenchman currently on five. He has a better chance of opening the scoring that the odds suggest.

Bournemouth to win (+115 at FanDuel)
Sitting 11th in the Premier League, it’s obvious that Bournemouth have done well, but in truth their eight points isn’t really indicative of just how good Andoni Iraola’s team have been. They’ve been very unlucky to drop points in some games, and they currently have nearly four goals fewer than their xG would suggest. They can beat newly promoted Leicester on the road here.

Erling Haaland to score first (+230 at FanDuel)
Man City have been dominant on home soil for a while now. They’ve already scored eight goals in just three Premier League games at the Etihad. It’s never easy to pick a first goalscorer for Pep Guardiola’s team but it’s always good to look at Erling Haaland, who already has 10 league goals this campaign. Yes, 10!

West Ham to win (-120 at FanDuel)
It feels strange to back West Ham to win at home when they’ve lost all three league games at the London Stadium this season, but upon closer inspection it’s easy to see that opposition has been the issue. So far they’ve faced Aston Villa, Man City and Chelsea at home, three of the league’s top form teams. Now against 15th-place Ipswich, who are yet to pick up a single win, we should be able to see West Ham unleash their potential on home soil.

Newcastle to win (+115 at FanDuel)
Newcastle are seventh in the Premier League table, nine spots higher than Everton with nearly three times the points. It’s a shock how high Newcastle are given that they haven’t really played at their best this season, but that shows the ability within the team: They can keep accruing points even when playing poorly. Everton have given up 15 goals, the second-highest total in the league, and should prove a fertile breeding ground for Newcastle’s attackers.

(Sunday Matches)

Ollie Watkins to score (+155 at BetMGM)
Everyone is talking about Aston Villa’s Jhon Duran given he’s scored a huge amount of goals, including the midweek winner over Bayern Munich, despite largely playing from the bench. He can’t keep smashing in goals from 30-yards; it’s not sustainable. So don’t overlook Ollie Watkins, who has scored four in six Premier League games — including in each of his past three league games. Watkins is far more likely to star in Sunday’s game against Man U.

Cole Palmer to score (+115 at FanDuel)
It’s hard not to consider backing Cole Palmer to score against Nottingham Forest this Sunday. He’s scored six goals in six Premier League games and has the added benefit of having not played in Chelsea’ Europa Conference League win over Gent on Thursday, so it’s going to be fit and ready to go. He’s in red-hot form and is still at plus money.

Tottenham to win (+120 at FanDuel)
Brighton started the season with back-to-back wins but have yet to register a win in the four games since. That’s in start contrast to Spurs, who come into this flying after five wins in a row across all competitions, scoring 13 goals in that time.

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