Saints Have Opportunity Against Injury-Plagued Chiefs

In today’s newsletter…

When the Vikings lost Kirk Cousins to the Falcons, most people expected a down year in Minnesota. Cousins reportedly left because of the Vikings’ plan to draft a QB, which they did in Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. But things didn’t quite turn out as planned. Minnesota signed Sam Darnold, who had 10 wins in the past four seasons combined, but he’s now 5-0 with the Vikings while McCarthy is out for the season with a torn meniscus.

Darnold has a passer rating over 100, star receiver Justin Jefferson has four TDs (2nd-most in the league), and the team has a league-high 11 forced interceptions. BetMGM had Minnesota at +10000 to win the Super Bowl to start the season — 22 teams had a better chance, according to the sportsbook. Now, the Vikings could be the only undefeated squad left in the NFL after tonight and are down to +1200 odds to win it all.

In today’s newsletter, Jack is covering Monday Night Football, Craig is tracking the MLB playoffs and Chris has the WNBA playoffs and a few NBA futures.

- Abe Rakov

Scoring Should be Tough to Come by with Injuries on Offense for Both Chiefs and Saints

By Jack Dougherty

Saints +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Despite their records, the Saints have arguably been a better team than the Chiefs through four weeks. New Orleans ranks third in the NFL in DVOA (ninth in offense, second in defense), while Kansas City ranks ninth (10th in offense, 15th in defense). Derek Carr is slinging the ball with a ton of confidence, which is crucial against Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive defense. On the other side of the ball, the Saints keep teams out of the end zone with their NFL-best 22.2% opponent red-zone touchdown rate. The Chiefs rank 23rd in the league in RZ touchdown rate (45.5%), so expect them to settle for multiple field goals with Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice out of the lineup.

Saints vs. Chiefs under 43 points (-108 at DraftKings)
Another reason the Saints appear valuable as an underdog in this matchup is that this should be a low-scoring game. We just touched on Kansas City’s red-zone struggles and New Orleans’ bend-don’t-break defense, but the Saints could also have trouble moving the ball with a banged-up offensive line. Pro Bowl center Erik McCoy is on injured reserve, Ryan Ramczyk is out for the season, Cesar Ruiz and Shane Lemieux have been ruled out for this week and Lucas Patrick is listed as questionable. How’s that going to go against Chris Jones? We’re not picturing many touchdowns from either team. 

Kareem Hunt over 8.5 1st quarter rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Kareem Hunt took over Kansas City’s No. 1 running back spot last week after Carson Steele lost a fumble on the first drive of the game. The veteran took full advantage of that opportunity, rumbling for 69 yards on a team-high 14 carries against the Los Angeles Chargers. Andy Reid is going to roll with the back he trusts the most with Pacheco sidelined, and that appears to be Hunt heading into MNF. He should be featured early and often against a Saints defense dealing with a few injuries at the linebacker position. 

Samaje Perine anytime touchdown scorer (+500 at DraftKings)
This price is too high based on how the Chiefs shuffled around their running backs last week. Steele played only 18% of the team’s offensive snaps due to his early fumble, while Hunt played 45% and Samaje Perine played 40%. Perine even got a carry from the 2-yard line and punched it in for a touchdown. Who’s to say Perine won’t operate as the goal-line running back for Kansas City? With so much uncertainty in this RB room, we’ll look at the player with the longest TD price. 

Rashid Shaheed anytime touchdown scorer (+260 at FanDuel)
Rashid Shaheed has been close to catching at least one long touchdown pass in all four games, and the Saints will continue to feed the speedy wide receiver with down-field shots. Star cornerback Trent McDuffie will tangle with Chris Olave for most of the game, so Carr will be looking to find Shaheed in mismatches down the field. New Orleans also loves to feed Shaheed in the red zone, as he leads the team with four RZ targets and has two carries from inside the 15-yard line this season.

Skubal has Recorded at Least 6 Ks in 17 of last 18 Games for Tigers

By Craig Williams

Juan Soto to hit a home run (+420 at FanDuel)
For bettors looking for a quick injection of profit, Soto presents a promising option to go yard in spite of the lefty-lefty matchup with Royals pitcher Cole Ragans. For starters, Soto owns an .876 career postseason OPS — including three homers and two doubles in seven World Series games — so we know the stage will not be too large for him. Now, to Ragans’ credit, only two of the 15 homers he gave up in the regular season came against left-handed hitters, but he did allow them to bat .276 against him. Players of Soto’s caliber only need a chance, and Ragans’ reverse platoon splits present that chance. Finally, and there’s no tangible stat for this, but Soto is a natural showman. He’s the archetypal player who can slow the game down in a big moment.

Royals moneyline first 5 innings (+120 at DraftKings)
We’re leaning into one of the prominent Yankees regular season splits in this spot: their struggles against left-handed pitching — particularly in the batting average (.235) and slugging (.387) departments. Ragans pitched six shutout innings with eight strikeouts against the Orioles in the wildcard round, at least suggesting he’s in good form. On the Yankees side, we certainly like the results Carlos Rodon produced in September (2.20 ERA over 28.2 IP), but he’s someone the Royals have had some success against. And the advanced metrics (4.67 FIP) support the idea that Rodon benefited from some good fortune. It’s not too difficult to imagine the Royals taking a modest lead into the back half of Game 2. 

Tarik Skubal over 5.5 strikeouts (-145 at DraftKings)
Skubal’s backers have to accept some juice here, but we like the relatively modest number against a pesky Guardians lineup. The Guardians produced a 20.1% strikeout rate on the season and a slightly elevated but still stingy 22.8% clip in September. Skubal fanned six Guardians across seven frames when these two teams met on July 22; and he’s recorded at least six punchouts in his last six starts and 17 of his last 18. That includes his start against the Houston Astros in the wildcard round.

Guardians +0.5 first 5 innings (-130 at FanDuel)
Naturally, the Tigers are favored behind Skubal, the soon-to-be AL Cy Young winner. We’re not fading Skubal and the Tigers, but we like what the Guardians bring to the postseason table overall. They’re the proverbial scrappy, gritty, grind-it-out type of team, but more tangibly, they enjoyed a lot of success this season thanks to their ability to come through in key spots. That’s a product of their organizational culture, and something that translates to their postseason play. Not to mention, they have been especially dominant at home this season. They’ll rely on lefty Matthew Boyd to keep the Tigers at bay, and in addition to pitching well over eight summer starts, Boyd will have the benefit of unfamiliarity — only Riley Greene has experience against Boyd (0-for-1). Don’t sleep on the Guardians’ ability to make life difficult on Skubal and the Tigers tonight.

Lynx Favored in Decisive Game 5 in WNBA Semifinals

By Chris Farley

Lynx -3.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
One might wonder why the Lynx are the immediate favorite in this opening line, in a series that's tied and after a loss, but it makes perfect sense. The Lynx have the best player on the court (Napheesa Collier, 29 points in Game 4), and if just one of her colleagues shot better (the other four starters collectively shot just 11-30), this series might be over. Minnesota left their defense at the door and Connecticut had one of its best games of the season, shooting 54% from the floor. That surely won't happen at the Target Center, nor should Collier's teammates shoot that poorly.

Sun vs. Lynx under 151 points (-110 at FanDuel)
The Sun and Lynx just scored more than 170 points in Game 4, so why would this total be so low? Game 4 was an outlier in every conceivable way. Not only did the Sun shoot 54% (they average 44.4% this season), they also shot an absurd 53% from beyond the arc! Minnesota is the Association's best defense against the three-pointer, and the Sun are typically very average (32.7% this season). With a raucous environment at the Target Center and the WNBA's two best defenses colliding in a win-or-go-home scenario, we love a nervous beginning and defensive battle throughout. 

Our First Look at Some NBA Futures (with More to Come Soon)

By Chris Farley

Warriors over 44.5 wins (+100 at DraftKings)
In recent memory, the Warriors don't conjure the same elite energy they once did. Sure, they've won 4 of the past 10 titles and even recently in 2022, but the latest versions haven't looked like "championship material." Injuries and infighting led to some bad results, but we believe that's in the past. They're better off without Klay Thompson and their young stars are eager to perform with great leaders like Steph Curry. Like him or not, Steve Kerr is still a top-5 coach and despite all the criticism and challenges last season, they still earned 46 wins. We'll gladly look at Dub-City over.

Victor Wembanyama to win Defensive Player of the Year (-173 at Bookmaker)
This is ugly juice we don't want to pay, but we're willing to trust in the French phenom. In his rookie campaign, playing just under 30 minutes per game, Victor Wembanyama led the NBA in blocks by a wide margin (3.6, the next guy had 2.4). He was also top-10 in deflections. As tall and imposing as Wemby can be, it's his athleticism and versatility, like his ability to defend the pick and roll like no one else his size, that sets him apart. More minutes are coming his way and he's in a great position to run away with this award.

Luka Doncic to be assists leader (+900 at FanDuel)
In addition to his scoring prowess, Luka Doncic is arguably the best pure-passer in the NBA. He was elite last season: he averaged 9.8 per game, second only to Tyrese Haliburton, who had an absurd year (10.9 apg). Regardless, Doncic is set up better than ever because of who the front office has placed around him. In addition to Kyrie Irving, Luka gets to play a full season with P.J. Washington and Derek Lively II, who should be featured more. Even better, one of the NBA's best 3-point shooters of all time, Klay Thompson, just joined, and we see a beautiful marriage awaiting.

Ja Morant to be first player to score 60+ points in regular season (+3500 at DraftKings)
It's hard to describe what it's like to watch Ja Morant. The guy oozes moxie on the court, like a modern-day Allen Iverson, and finds ways to infiltrate the paint like no player we've ever seen. Oh, and his athletic ability is otherworldly. Morant was elevating his squad immediately upon returning from injury last December, leading Memphis to a 6-3 record and scoring 30+ in three contests. Then he got injured again. Back and with a shallow offensive roster surrounding him and a rookie center, there's a ton of value in this moonshot.

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