Seahawks Head into TNF Averaging 5.0 Yards/Rush

In today’s newsletter…

The most crowded part of the yearly sports calendar is coming our way. The NFL is in full swing (we’ve even already had our first fired head coach thanks to the reeling Jets), college football is as entertaining as ever despite the worries about conference realignment and the transfer portal ruining the sport, the MLB playoffs are heating up, the WNBA Finals start tomorrow, the NHL season just got underway, and the NBA starts October 22nd. It’s the time of year where there’s something to watch every night again, so enjoy!

Make sure to check out our weekly NFL rundown, where we give you player projections and team stat comparisons. It goes live on our website every Tuesday.

In today’s newsletter, Chris has Thursday Night Football (49ers vs. Seahawks), Craig is covering the MLB playoffs and Jack is tracking Thursday and Friday college football matchups.

- Abe Rakov

P.S. We just crossed 35,000 subscribers at Sportmoney! Thank you for being part of our growing team. Stay tuned for news about expanded coverage starting in November — you’ll have the chance to opt-in early.

Injuries on Defense Could Lead to More Scoring on Thursday Night Football

By Chris Farley

Seahawks +3.5 (-115 at BetOnline and Bovada)
Regardless of what the 49ers did last season, these teams are more even than disparate. Much of that is because of injuries. San Francisco continues to work through issues on their defensive line, a group that's underperforming vastly compared to previous seasons (only 5 sacks in three games against average or better offensive lines), and their secondary is very banged up. And of course, Christian McCaffrey remains out. Seattle's dealing with injury bugs, too, but the Hawks are getting 3.5 points, they're at home, and the Niners are bottom-third in the NFL in opponent third down conversion-rate (22nd), yards per pass (24th), and yards per rush (21st). Seattle might win this contest.

49ers vs. Seahawks over 49 points (-110 at BetOnline, Bovada and DraftKings)
Initially the total on this game moved down, but the number has reversed course for good reason. How are the Seahawks, a group that's struggling to pressure QBs due to injuries to their best D-linemen (Uchenna Nwosu, Cameron Young, Byron Murphy II), going to slow down Brock Purdy when he has time? Purdy has an insane 77% career completion percentage in a clean pocket. On the other side, Seattle is off two losses and a disappointing result last week where Geno Smith was sacked 7 times. They only gained 333 yards, too. Both offenses are ready to explode, and Seattle presents perfect weather for a high-scoring game.

Kenneth Walker III anytime TD (-125 at FanDuel)
We're not sure what happened with the Seahawks last Sunday, they barely looked alive, but it wasn't a good indicator of who they are. The Seahawks are a top-7 team in yards per rush (5.0), they score 1.6 rushing TDs per game (4th), and they run the ball as much as any program in the NFL (47.69% of plays, 11th). Kenneth Walker III has only played in three games this season, but he scored a TD in each of his first two contests. We'll count Week 5 as a throwaway, but Walker should have plenty of opportunities to score against a defense that's bottom-third in the league in yards per carry allowed (4.7).

Brock Purdy over 275 passing yards (+165 at DraftKings)
The Seahawks have found a way to get at least a few sacks in every game, but this is a massive step up in talent on Thursday night. San Francisco's offensive line is healthy and one of the best in the NFL, a group that's allowing Brock Purdy to throw for 8.8 yards per pass, the best mark in the league. Seattle's defensive line has never been more banged up, and they rank in the bottom six in QB pressures. Purdy is ice-cold even when he's being pressured; with time in the pocket, he's almost unstoppable. After facing three subpar QBs in the first three weeks, Seattle allowed Jared Goff and Daniel Jones to throw 41-52 for 549 yards and 4 TDs the last two weeks combined. This is a great setup for Purdy.

(Sunday Look Ahead)

Jaguars moneyline (+118 at BetOnline)
The Jaguars finally got their first win. Now, Doug Pederson's program gets to play in London, a city they've occupied more than any NFL team, while the Bears are young and inexperienced and their franchise has only been over the Atlantic twice. Chicago benefitted from playing at home against two poor defenses the past two weeks, but the usually sloppy conditions of England and a Jacksonville defense that has exceptional talent in the trenches could cause issues for rookie Caleb Williams and his protection. The Bears' defense will challenge Trevor Lawrence, too, but the former #1 pick still has plenty to prove and the Bears are too fat and sassy right now after two easy wins. The wrong team is favored.

Chargers vs. Broncos under 35.5 points (-105 at FanDuel)
There's a good chance this total continues to drop so we're looking at this now. The Denver Broncos' defense is one of the most surprising units this season, a group that's displaying top-5 marks in points per game (14.6), yards per game (271.2), and yards per play (4.4) allowed. Three out of their five contests have fallen under this listed total, and last week (Denver won 34-18) was an outlier result against a poorly coached Raiders' squad. Denver's offense produces just 270 yards per game, and they'll be facing a Jim Harbaugh program that's never seen a game eclipse 32 points this season (29.5 average total). Points should be a struggle in this hard-hitting affair.

Chisholm Jr., Yankees Look to Take Back Control from “Lucky” Royals in 1 of 4 Playoff Games Today

By Craig Williams

Alex Cobb over 11.5 outs recorded (-125 at DraftKings)
Effectiveness is the most important factor for pitchers at this point of the season, and Cobb has been that across his last two starts (he only made three on the season). He has the benefit of unfamiliarity against the Tigers — only Andy Ibanez and Matt Vierling have faced the Guardians’ starter, combining for four at-bats. We’re also considering that Cobb enters this start with a full tank of gas, theoretically eliminating fatigue as a reason for him to fail to complete four frames.

Ranger Suarez under 11.5 outs recorded (+100 at DraftKings)
The Phillies won’t wait around for Suarez to find his groove if he doesn’t begin the game locked in. And “locked in” isn’t a state Suarez has experienced across his last eight turns (5.65 ERA, .372 wOBA), a span in which the Phillies are 3-5. The Mets present a particular problem for Suarez, as they’re producing good at-bats and threatening teams with both the long ball and small ball. Look for Phillies manager Rob Thomson to empty the clip in an elimination spot. 

Mets moneyline (-104 at FanDuel)
We’re leaning into the personality of the Mets, who have demonstrated the ability to come through in big moment after big moment. An elimination opportunity in front of a rabid home crowd should fuel this group as opposed to saddling them with extra pressure. More tangibly, the Mets are 6-4 against the Phillies over their last 10, including postseason. And Jose Quintana has been lights out over his last six starts with a 0.74 ERA and .197 BAA across 36.1 frames.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. to record a hit (-175 at FanDuel)
We’re going to accept the juice here and look at Chisholm Jr. to back his talk with a base hit after attributing the Royals’ Game 2 win to “getting lucky.” The narrative surrounding Chisholm Jr. following his trade to the Yankees was that he has the personality to shine in the spotlight. Well, now we get to see it in action. He had more success against right-handers than left-handers, naturally, and delivered a knock in each of the first two games of the Division Series.

Yankees moneyline (-115 at ESPNBET)
The Yankees have a tough task facing off against Royals ace Seth Lugo in Kansas City. The saving grace for New York might be that Lugo pitched better away from Kauffman Stadium. Not to mention, the Yankees’ 50 road wins paced MLB this season. The Bombers will counter Lugo with Clarke Schmidt, who warrants respect in this spot. He hasn’t been lights out over his last five starts since returning from injury, but his 3.65 ERA and 3.69 FIP suggest he’s pitching well enough for the Yankees to deliver a win behind him.

Padres moneyline (-148 at FanDuel)
The Padres are one win away from eliminating the Dodgers from the postseason for the second time in three years. Dylan Cease took his lumps in Game 1 — Shohei Ohtani does that to a lot of good pitchers — but a better performance should be on tap if his home/road splits hold up. Cease enjoyed a tidier ERA, WHIP, and K/BB at Petco Park this season. For those who want to dive into the psychological elements of the series, it’s worth noting the Padres are 6-4 against the Dodgers over their last 10, including postseason, and appear to have ample confidence against their arch nemesis.

Utah Defense Has What it Takes to Slow Arizona State’s 34.8-Points-per-Game Offense

By Jack Dougherty

James Madison team total over 35.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)
JMU only managed to score 19 points in a disappointing loss to Louisiana Monroe last week, but the Warhawks were the perfect team to slow down the Dukes because they run plays at the second-slowest pace in college football and have an excellent defense. That’s not Coastal Carolina, which ranks 98th in opponent points per game and 108th in opponent third down conversion rate. The Chanticleers just gave up 37 points and 6.0 yards per play to a terrible Old Dominion offense, and JMU has one of the most explosive units in the country. 

Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech under 49 points (-110 at Bet365)
Middle Tennessee’s offense has the exact profile to look for when betting an under. The Blue Raiders play slow (101st in seconds per play), can’t protect the quarterback (118th in QB sack rate), can’t sustain drives (103rd in third down conversion rate) and don’t capitalize on red zone opportunities (118th in red zone scoring rate). Middle Tennessee might have trouble slowing down Louisiana Tech’s heavy passing attack, but that should be the focus of the game plan this week considering the Bulldogs are one-dimensional, ranking 132nd in yards per rush. 

Northwestern +10 (-108 at DraftKings)
Whatever the opposite of an explosive passing offense is, that’s what Northwestern has. The Wildcats rank 132nd in the country in yards per pass, 127th in completion percentage and 121st in third down conversion rate. But Jack Lausch has been able to move the ball through the air in two of his three starts, and Maryland will likely let him do just that. The Terrapins rank 108th in opponent yards per pass, and they let quarterbacks Kurtis Rourke and Aidan Chiles throw for a combined 722 yards and six touchdowns. It’s hard to trust Maryland to cover large spreads when they give up so many successful pass plays.

Arizona State team total under 19.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)
We don’t trust this Arizona State offense. The Sun Devils are averaging 34.8 points per game, but four of the five teams they’ve played rank 83rd or worse in scoring defense. This should be a rude awakening against Utah, which ranks 21st in points allowed per game, third in third down conversion rate and second in opponent completion percentage. The Utes held Arizona’s high-flying offense to just 23 points in their last game, and Kyle Whittingham has two weeks to put together a stifling defensive game plan to slow down ASU running back Cameron Skattebo.

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