Week 6 in the NFL Will Test Early Season Surprise Teams

In today’s newsletter…

We have an exciting new partnership to announce! Each week during the NFL season, Sportmoney subscribers will get an exclusive position-by-position rundown from the team at Pro Football Focus (PFF). You’ll get stats, trends and PFF’s unparalleled player grades. The best news is that it doesn’t cost you a thing.

You can find the weekly Sportmoney x PFF rundown on our website every Thursday at noon and in the Friday newsletter.

In today’s (packed!) newsletter, Chris is tracking Sunday’s NFL matchups, Craig has the MLB playoffs, Jack is covering college football, Abby walks you through her 5 most intriguing NFL teams through Week 5, and we have the first edition of our PFF partnership. Enjoy the weekend!

- Abe Rakov

Bears’ Solid Defense, London Conditions Make for an Appealing Under

By Chris Farley

Jaguars vs. Bears under 44.5 points (-110 at DraftKings and Bovada)
This total has moved up 2 points and we can't make sense of it. When the Jaguars have the ball, they'll be up against one of the best defenses in the NFL, particularly against the pass (6.4 yards per pass, 61.84% pass completion allowed). Indianapolis' defense was one thing, but Jacksonville isn't explosive enough (18th in points/play) to create big plays against a well-coached Bears' squad. On the other side, Jacksonville's defense has vastly underperformed but they still have exceptional talent up front — and this game is at their home away from home, in the muck of London. 

Patriots +6.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
This is a scary spot for the Texans. First, and perhaps most concerning, Nico Collins was put on IR and Joe Mixon only had limited practices this week. After surviving some ugly games in Weeks 1-5, this qualifies as a very sleepy spot for the away team, one they could certainly overlook with a second straight road game at the Packers on deck. Not to mention, Drake Maye's first start creates an intangible that Houston cannot prepare for. The plate is set for a Patriots' upset if Houston doesn't take this game seriously.

Cardinals vs. Packers under 47 points (-105 at BetOnline)
Kyler Murray's athleticism and ability to extend plays has been magical to watch, and we're not too keen on the Packers' defense against him (Green Bay allows 7.3 yards per pass, a 23rd rank). Jordan Love has yet to have a big game this season, and he's in a great spot at home against a mediocre defense this Sunday. The issue is weather for both QBs. Lambeau Field will be sloppy, rainy, and worst of all: Winds will gust up to 45 mph. These are terrible conditions for passing, and suggests both programs will need to keep the ball on the ground. We're aligned with the steam.

Bucs vs. Saints over 41 points (-110 at Bovada)
Baker Mayfield is the brand of QB who would play his best after his team's town was just walloped by a hurricane. The Saints' defense is good, in theory, but some of their statistics through five weeks suggest they're far from bulletproof (356 yards per game and 7.2 yards per pass allowed, 23rd and 21st rankings). Spencer Rattler will start at QB for New Orleans and we're not sure that's a downgrade. He's more mobile than Derek Carr and he likes to push the ball downfield. That usually leads to touchdowns or turnovers. Either way, more points!

Chargers moneyline (-150 at Bovada)
Our general rule is any moneyline bet at -159 or less is great value for a 3-point favorite. Ideally the favorite isn't the away team, but that's why we're fading the spread. Jim Harbaugh has never tried to fool anyone about who he is. Denver's defense has been very impressive, boasting many top-5 marks, but that won't stop Harbaugh from running the ball down their throats. It helps that both Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt have returned, both stalwarts of the Bolts' offensive line. We also trust Justin Herbert, even if he's not 100%, to outperform Bo Nix, who's been fortunate to rely on a stingy defense.

Giants +3.5 (-105 at Bovada)
Before the season began, our lookahead line on this game was Bengals -6.5, but much has changed. Cincinnati's defense has shown no improvement. In fact, last week was their worst showing yet, permitting 520 yards at home to Baltimore. Joe Burrow has been astounding, ahead of every QB in nearly every metric, but it won't be easy at the Meadowlands. The Giants lead the NFL in sacks (22) and havoc rate. Brian Daboll has been masterful as a play-caller, Daniel Jones finally looks comfortable, and Malik Nabers is on track to return. Big Blue might win this straight up.

Labar: The 5 Most Intriguing NFL Teams Through Week 5

How we’re already through week five is beyond me. I swear the NFL season just started. Can we get a vibe check on Jets fans? You guys okay? I was just thinking I probably have more Giants than Jets friends, but I’ll be sure to make sure they feel the love as I return back to NYC from a weeklong hiatus in Hawaii. Speaking of, despite the crazy time difference out in the tropics I did in fact get to watch the end of that wild Falcons-Bucs game. Good for you, Kirk Cousins and Atlanta.

Time to get back to business, and here’s the deal: I’m picking my top five through week five. I’m choosing my favorite/most intriguing teams to watch through week five, not necessarily the ones I think are the best. With that in mind, have friendly discussions and disagreements with these as you please!

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

Can Darvish Get 3rd Playoff Win at Dodger Stadium and Send Padres to NLCS?

By Craig Williams

Padres moneyline first 3 innings (+114 at DraftKings)
The obvious caveat applies here: Anything can happen in an elimination game. We like the plus-money odds on the Padres, who are 6-4 against the Dodgers over their last 10 and have demonstrated they can win in Dodger Stadium. We’re also backing veteran Yu Darvish, who has had success against the Dodgers in his career (as recently as Game 2 on Sunday). At the very least, one can surmise he won’t be intimidated by the Dodgers or even Shohei Ohtani, who is 1-for-8 against him. We’re sticking to the early portion of the game for this play, but are bullish on the Padres scratching across a run against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who they’ve handled well across three starts.

Yu Darvish to record a win (+240 at DraftKings)
Bettors seeking the potential profits of plus-money odds can consider Darvish recording the win tonight. As mentioned above, he has had success against the Dodgers, including in the postseason, where he’s won twice at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers lineup is potent, but the Padres — and Darvish in particular — have demonstrated that they have the ability to hold it in check. Finally, we’ll stop short of suggesting Darvish has a long leash tonight, but if he gets going, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him shorten the game by pitching into the sixth inning.

(Saturday Game)

Guardians under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-154 at DraftKings)
This is all about backing Tarik Skubal in an elimination spot. Even if the Guardians ultimately prevail, we expect the soon-to-be American League Cy Young winner to put the Tigers on his back. The Guardians’ bats livened up a little bit in their Game 4 win, but we’re not ready to trust that they’re ready to beat up on Skubal.

Parlay: Guardians moneyline + under 6 total runs (+216 at FanDuel)
This play is about respect for both the Guardians’ organizational culture, and Tigers starter Tarik Skubal. It’s not necessarily quantifiable, but the Guardians know their way around October. It hasn’t manifested itself in countless banners, but this is the type of environment and situation in which they frequently find themselves. Even against an ace like Skubal, the Guardians are the type of team that will grind itself to a nub just to have the chance to eek together a 1-0 or 2-1 type of victory. Considering their offensive struggles — Thursday night notwithstanding — a win will likely coincide with a low run total on each side.

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oregon Could Get Off to a Slow Start in Massive Primetime Matchup

By Jack Dougherty

UAB +26.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Let’s kick things off with possibly the grossest bet on the entire Saturday slate. Army has been pummeling teams all season, winning by an average of 29.0 points per game. The Black Knights have the best rushing attack in the country, but this is a massive number to cover for a team that runs the ball 86.5% of the time and plays at the slowest pace in the country. UAB gave up a whopping 8.5 yards per play against Navy and still fell inside this number.

Penn State -3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
This spread has bounced around all week, but it could be time to buy the Nittany Lions now that the line has dipped down to 3.5. What are USC’s biggest weaknesses? Its offensive line — specifically its tackles — and its rush defense. Well, Penn State has the perfect formula to attack those weak points. Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton can cause havoc for Miller Moss off the edges, and the offense is going to pound the rock with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen like Minnesota did with Darius Taylor last week. 

San Jose State vs. Colorado State over 56 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Death, taxes and San Jose State overs. The Spartans love to play fast, as they rank 15th in the country in seconds per play. They’re also efficient and explosive on offense, ranking 26th in red zone scoring percentage, 30th in points per play and eighth in passing yards per game. Nick Nash is one of the most unguardable outside weapons in college football, and Colorado State has struggled to defend the pass all season. San Jose State should put up another big number in this matchup, and its defense just allowed Nevada’s 101st-ranked offense to score 31. 

Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky under 44.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
This is a brutal spot for Vanderbilt coming off the biggest win in school history against Alabama. After a week of celebration, the Commodores have to travel to Lexington and go up against a Kentucky defense that ranks fifth in yards allowed per game and 10th in points allowed per game. The Wildcats have held Georgia to 13 points and Ole Miss to 17 points this season. They also play at one of the slowest paces in the country (130th out of 134 teams in seconds per play). 

Ohio State vs. Oregon first half under 26.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
Fans are expecting fireworks from this top-three matchup, but it could be a slow start for both offenses. This is the first time Ohio State is stepping up in competition all year, so the offense could be shellshocked by Oregon’s speed and physicality. The best defense the Buckeyes faced this season was Iowa, and they managed just seven points in the first half. Ohio State’s defense, though, is the real deal, and Oregon has been prone to slow starts a few times this season. 

West Virginia +3 (-108 at DraftKings)
West Virginia is better than its 3-2 record indicates. The Mountaineers would be a 4-1 if not for a late-game blunder against Pittsburgh, and they’re coming off their most complete performance of the season in a 38-14 win at Oklahoma State. WVU outgained OSU, 558-227, in the game and rushed for 389 yards and four touchdowns. The way to attack this Iowa State defense is on the ground, and West Virginia can execute that game plan with Jahiem White, C.J. Donaldson and dual-threat QB Garrett Greene.

Sportmoney x PFF Week 6 Rundown: Running Backs

Read the full Sportmoney x PFF rundown, which also includes quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends, on our website: sportmoney.com.

In the News

What to Watch

Photo of the Day