AFC East Rivalry on MNF + Both MLB Series in Action Today

In today’s newsletter…

With nine teams scoring at least 30 points, Week 6 in the NFL was an offensive showcase. Teams averaged a combined 49.7 points per games (with the Bills vs. Jets still to come tonight), and six squads had at least 400 yards of offense. And this didn’t just come against the league’s bottom-dwellers: The Bucs put up 51 against the Saints and the Lions scored 47 on the Cowboys.

Along with yesterday’s NFL action, the Dodgers tied an MLB playoff record with 33 consecutive scoreless innings and won 9-0 in game 1 against the Mets, and the Liberty had a 31-point first quarter against the Lynx and never looked back en route to tying the WNBA Finals at 1.

In today’s newsletter, Jack has Monday Night Football, Craig is covering the MLB playoffs and analyzes contenders in the NBA’s Eastern Conference, and we take a look back at NFL week 6 by the numbers.

- Abe Rakov

Expect Breece Hall to Get More Carries After Aaron Rodgers’ 96 Passes in Last 2 Games

By Jack Dougherty

Bills vs. Jets under 41 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Over bettors sure are having fun in Week 6, as overs are 10-3 through 13 NFL games. That run is likely to come to an end on Monday Night Football. The Bills averaged 37.3 points in their first three games of the season, but we’re attributing that more to the three terrible defenses they played. In their last two games against the Ravens and Texans, the Bills are averaging just 15.0 points and 4.4 yards per play. Those numbers would each rank 30th in the NFL. The Jets present the best defense Buffalo has played all year, so don’t expect Josh Allen and Co. to turn things around this week. As for New York, it ranks 29th in the league in yards per play and 25th in scoring offense.

Josh Allen to throw an interception (-120 at FanDuel)
After throwing the second-most interceptions in the NFL last season (18), Allen has kept a clean sheet through five games this year. It won’t be easy to keep that going against a Jets defense that’s had his number recently. Allen has thrown six interceptions over his last four starts against New York. He threw four picks in two matchups against the Jets last season. New York knows how to pressure Allen and force him into poor decisions, and that’s when Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed and the rest of this aggressive secondary can pounce.

Breece Hall over 58.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
This is a buy-low spot on Breece Hall coming off 19 carries for only 27 yards over his last two games. Rodgers has attempted 96 passes in that span, which isn’t how New York wants this offense to run. The Jets need to find a better run-pass balance, starting on Monday night and a Buffalo defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per rush allowed. This is the perfect matchup for the Jets to give their 40-year-old quarterback a break and get Hall back in a groove.

Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer (+145 at DraftKings)
This prop is normally priced closer to even money, so we’ll take the discount on Allen coming off four straight games without finding the end zone. After going just 9-30 against the Texans last week, it’s clear Allen doesn’t trust this crop of wide receivers yet. The star quarterback will likely use his legs more in a crucial division matchup. Buffalo also loves to run the ball in the red zone, as Allen already has nine carries from inside the 20 through five games.

Manaea has Pitched at Least 6.2 Innings in 11 of his Last 14 Starts

By Craig Williams

Sean Manaea over 16.5 outs recorded (-110 at DraftKings)
Sean Manaea gets to play the role of stopper this afternoon against a Dodgers team starting to resemble a freight train gaining steam. That particular job description includes soaking up outs and innings after the Mets used five pitchers in their Game 1 defeat. That’s certainly a challenge against this Dodgers lineup, but Manaea went seven innings against the Phillies in Game 3 and compiled at least 6.2 frames in 10 of his final 12 regular season starts. Those starts may not have been as high stakes as today’s, but they certainly carried weight as the Mets were scratching and clawing for a wild card spot all summer.

Mets +0.5 first 5 innings (-115 at FanDuel)
This is about the resilience the Mets have demonstrated throughout the second half, and frankly, it’s about the Mets enjoying success against the Dodgers in recent seasons. Even if the Dodgers ultimately take a 2-0 series lead back to Queens, there’s still a lot to like about a team that has picked itself up off the mat time and time again, both in-game and from game to game. They took the first blow to the chin, but they have shown that they have the personality to bounce back, and we expect to see a sharper performance today.

Guardians over 0.5 first 3 innings (-130 at DraftKings)
We’re considering Carlos Rodon and how he’ll manage his energy and emotions in this spot. He was amped up and got off to a great start against the Royals in the ALDS before surrendering four runs in the fourth. The Guardians struggled at the dish against the Tigers, but they’re pesky and they don’t strike out frequently. If Rodon consistently gets into deep counts his first time through the order, the Guardians are the type of team that can scratch across an early run in Game 1.

Carlos Rodon under 5.5 strikeouts (-150 at DraftKings)
We’re leaning into the Guardians’ knack for contact. Rodon certainly has strikeout stuff, and he enters his Game 1 start with the benefit of unfamiliarity on his side — only Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez have at least 10 at-bats against him. We’re also considering Rodon’s capacity to make his own adjustments. We mentioned how much juice Rodon had to start the Royals game last series, and it’s fair to suggest he may make it a point to gear down a tick or two and channel his energy more efficiently. 

Yankees moneyline (-162 at FanDuel)
The Guardians’ bats came alive at the end of the Tigers series, but they have been struggling at the dish for a large portion of the second half of the season. The Yankees at home (44-37) weren’t that much better than the Guardians on the road (42-39) this season, but we’re still leaning Yankees here, especially since Rodon can neutralize the Guardians’ left-handed hitters (in theory). Meanwhile, we’re not bullish on Alex Cobb navigating the Yankees batting order unscathed. The Guardians are riding a dominant bullpen, so the Yankees will have their work cut out for them after Cobb exits, but if they jump on Cobb early, they may avoid Cleveland’s most devastating bullpen arms.

Yankees -1.5 (+136 at DraftKings)
This is an aggressive play tailored to bettors who believe Aaron Judge can get going after finishing 1-for-2 with a double in their Game 4 victory over the Royals. The Yankees posted a .779 OPS against finesse pitchers this season, and Cobb very much falls into that category. If you believe Judge is back on track, then it’s not difficult to envision a scenario in which they bully Cobb into an early exit — his strong performance over a small sample notwithstanding — and tack on enough to cover against the bottom of the Guardians’ vaunted relief corps. 

NBA Futures: A Look at Potential Eastern Conference Champions, Non-Celtics Edition

By Craig Williams

Bettors who want to back the Boston Celtics to repeat — or at least make it out of the Eastern Conference — certainly have plenty of reason to do so, and we’re not here to argue with them. However, for this exercise, we’re choosing to operate under the assumption that they will fall short. If for no other reason, the simple knowledge that repeating is extraordinarily difficult encourages us to examine the other contenders with a shot at advancing to the 2025 NBA Finals.

New York Knicks (+400 at DraftKings)
The Knicks had a busy offseason, retaining OG Anunoby and adding Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns. The addition of Towns is an especially significant acquisition considering their lack of front court depth, and Bridges is — you guessed it — another Villanova product. On paper, it’s a very attractive starting five, centered around All-NBA point guard Jalen Brunson and hard-nosed head coach Tom Thibodeau. The question with the Knicks — or Thibs in particular — is can they make it to the playoffs with enough in the tank to navigate the bracket on the East?

Philadelphia 76ers (+500 at FanDuel)
It’s all about Philly’s “big 3” with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and blockbuster acquisition Paul George. We know Embiid’s Achilles heal. If the Sixers enter the postseason with a healthy Embiid, they’re going to look like a much scarier contender for the conference crown than they’ve been in recent seasons when a hobbled Embiid meant the Sixers were strong, but short of dominant. Maxey, who is still ascending as a young star, is the “Robin” to Embiid’s “Batman,” and remains the No. 2. Adding George to the mix, however, provides the Sixers with another player who can facilitate, hit big shots, and take over a game when the opportunity arises. As we’ve seen though, putting together what seems like an enviable “big 3” often plays out better on paper than in the bottom line.

Miami Heat (+2300 at FanDuel)
We’re not going to dive into the roster, depth, or individual players in this particular case, because it’s always about the whole being greater than the sum of the parts with the Heat. They advanced to two of the last five Finals — as a No. 5 and a No. 8 seed — so they know how to win in a playoff environment. The Heat certainly don’t need to tear through the regular season in order to advance all the way to the NBA Finals. “Heat Culture” may be corny or even a bit arrogant, but it’s a real thing with Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra running the show.

Week 6 in the NFL by the Numbers

NFL offenses put on a show in Week 6. Here’s how it looked by the numbers, via NFL Next Gen Stats:

In the News

What to Watch

Photo of the Day