59% of Bets are with Dodgers at -1.5 in Game 3

In today’s newsletter…

A couple of teams caught my eye while I was looking at NFL stats through Week 6 this morning. The Texans are 4-0 in close games, which is usually a sign of good coaching, but they’re last in the NFL in penalties, which usually means less good coaching. Then there are the Bengals, who are 0-4 in close games but have the 4th-fewest penalties in the league. What’s going on there? You can read our game-by-game breakdown of Week 7 in the NFL on our website.

In today’s newsletter, Chris is covering the Broncos vs. Saints Thursday Night Football matchup and tonight’s WNBA Finals Game 3, Craig has tonight’s NCLS game between the Dodgers and Mets and a look at NBA Western Conference futures, and Jack is tracking college football action over the next three days.

- Abe Rakov

Dodgers vs. Mets Series Heads to NYC for Crucial Game 3

By Craig Williams

Mets -0.5 first 5 innings (+120 at DraftKings)
Luis Severino finished 7-2 with a 2.96 ERA at home this season. He’s comfortable in New York City and the team plays well behind him. He’s pitched effectively this postseason, even if it hasn’t always been pretty. Compare Severino with the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler, who has struggled all year, including his one playoff turn. And those struggles have especially revealed themselves away from Dodger Stadium (0-2, 6.53 ERA in seven starts). 

Dodgers vs. Mets over 7.5 runs (-112 at FanDuel)
Severino is no longer the thoroughbred power pitcher he was at his peak, but has demonstrated that he’s ready to battle and pitch nonetheless. The Dodgers are too good to bet on Severino mowing through their lineup, but he could certainly deliver a start similar to what he did against the Brewers and Phillies. Even four runs over five innings, hypothetically, will ultimately be a “good” start under the circumstances, especially if the Mets take care of Buehler. All of that is to say, this feels like a spot where runs could be relatively abundant.

Same Game Parlay: Francisco Lindor + Mookie Betts to score runs (+252 at FanDuel)
Simply put, this is Francisco Lindor’s stage. He has always been one to shine in the spotlight, and that has been on 4KHD display this postseason. It’s not easy to quantify, but look at all the vital moments in which he’s delivering — a must-have win vs. the Braves; bases loaded in the clincher vs. the Phillies; a momentum-building lead-off home run against the Dodgers. The Mets have a prime opportunity to exert serious series pressure on the Dodgers in front of their home crowd, and Lindor will be in the mix. Meanwhile, Mookie Betts — a two-time World Series winner — can make a lot of the same claims about October being his time. Not only that, he owns a .954 OPS against Luis Severino across 34 at-bats. And those at-bats came in Yankees-Red Sox tilts, which often featured some of juice that will be present tonight in Queens.

(Thursday)

Guardians moneyline (+100 at FanDuel)
It’s human nature to be in the Yankees’ situation — up 2-0 and in control — and exhale after two well-earned victories. And exhale is the opposite of what the Yankees can afford to do ahead of the rabid atmosphere they will experience at Progressive Field. That includes the passionate fanbase backing a proud organization with its back against the wall. If the Yankees can’t match the Guardians’ desperation in this spot — and some Game 2 baserunning gaffes suggest they’re not 100% keyed in on the fine details — they’re going to struggle. More tangibly, Guardians southpaw Matthew Boyd has been one of Cleveland’s top starters, and has pitched well over 6.2 postseason frames. Another factor to consider when it comes to Boyd is that he’s a 33-year-old “crafty lefty” who may be able to effectively manage the adrenaline of the moment.

Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+240 at FanDuel)
Wagering on a player to hit a home run is the sports betting equivalent of swinging for the fences — high risk, high reward … but fun. Judge is breaking out of his slump and getting back into rhythm. He doubled to left center against the Royals in Game 4 and delivered a majestic homer to right center in Game 2 against the Guardians. Judge’s home run spray chart is littered with dots in the big part of the ballpark, and he’s embarking on a run in which he punishes seemingly anything and everything pitched to him.

Good Defense, Slow Pace Should Keep WNBA Finals Game 3 Low Scoring

By Chris Farley

Liberty vs. Lynx under 160.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
Every necessary factor came together for us to love this under. First, while everyone knows that Minnesota has a great defense, New York isn't far behind this season (3rd overall). This is also a crucial inflection point in the series now that it's tied 1-1, so every shot will feel pressurized. Even better, New York and Minnesota are running the floor at a very slow pace through two games. Lastly, it's at the Target Center, a venue where the home team only allows 73 ppg, 2nd only to Connecticut this season. We love this position.

Lynx +3.5 (-105 at Bovada)
If we like the under, it makes sense that we would like the Lynx, too. Back in front of their fans, in an arena where Minnesota enforces the lowest opponent field goal percentage (41%), the lowest opponent three-point percentage (27.9%), and the fewest assists per game (18.3), Olympic gold-medalist Napheesa Collier and company will be beyond fired up following a 80-66 thrashing by the Liberty last Sunday. The Lynx have proven their resiliency and moxie at many junctures this season, and a home-pooch is always great value in a big-game scenario between two elites.

Broncos are 3rd in Sack Rate Allowed, Saints Have Only Notched 4 Sacks in Last 3 Games

By Chris Farley

Broncos -2.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
TNF favorites are 6-0 straight up, 5-1 ATS this season, and big-money bettors aggressively moved New Orleans from the favorite to the underdog the last two days. Of course, that doesn't insure a Denver win, nothing does, but Sean Payton is making his majestic return to the city where he won a Super Bowl, and the Saints are extremely banged up. Not to mention, the Saints' defense sucks (32nd in opponent yards allowed). Bo Nix will have his best shot to impress his new coach, and Denver's top-3 defense will be a major challenge for an inexperienced Spencer Rattler.

Broncos team total over 17.5 points (-125 at Bovada)
This is a lot of juice, but in this case it's worth the squeeze. The Saints' defense has been one of the worst units in the NFL the last few weeks. Already injured, now veteran safety Tyrann Mathieu (wrist, forearm) is also banged up, and their front-seven is garnering virtually no pressure (4 sacks in their last 3 contests). We also give Sean Payton an edge in this matchup, since he hired Dennis Allen as a defensive assistant back in 2015 and knows Allen's schemes better than anyone. In a dome, against an injured program, Bo Nix and the offense are in a great spot to positively regress.

Bo Nix under 0.5 INTs (+110 at DraftKings)
Bo Nix has been very shaky as Sean Payton's new starting QB. Through 6 games he has just 1,082 yards (23rd), and he's thrown as many INTs as he has TDs (5). He's also playing against a Saints' defense that's second in the NFL in INT-rate. All that said, we're positive that Payton has circled this spot on their schedule, and his play-calling ingenuity can make a big difference in their production. The Broncos have also done a great job at protecting Nix (3rd in sack rate allowed), and Nix only threw an INT in 1 out of 3 road games this season.

Spencer Rattler over 20.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
If there's anything that stood out about Spencer Rattler's first start, it was his mobility. Suddenly, New Orleans had a QB who could scramble and get out of pressure with ease, which Rattler used to his advantage early and often. He was precise on throws while on the move, and ran the ball 4 times for 27 yards when he saw an opportunity. Denver's defense has been very stingy, especially against the pass (top-5 in yards per pass/game, and sack rate), and the expectation is that New Orleans will be playing catch-up. This total is way too low, given these circumstances.

Boston College Can Keep it Close with Castellanos Healthy Again

By Jack Dougherty

Sam Houston State moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)
Western Kentucky’s defense is by far the weakest unit in this game. The Hilltoppers rank 98th in the country in opponent yards per play, 124th in opponent yards per pass attempt and 133rd out of 134 teams in opponent third-down conversion rate. Sam Houston State should have success running the ball on early downs, and Western Kentucky’s defense likely won’t be able to get off the field on short third downs. Both teams should be able to put up points in this matchup, but the Bearkats have shown they can make the crucial defensive stop while the Hilltoppers haven’t. 

(Thursday)

Boston College +7 (-110 at BetMGM)
This spread is too high. In Thomas Castellanos’ first start since sitting out with an undisclosed injury, Boston College was driving to tie or take the lead when a 40-yard fumble return for a touchdown completely changed the game. Castellanos likely wasn’t 100% against Virginia, either, but he should be back to full health after a much-needed bye week. In Castellanos’ four healthy games this season, BC beat Florida State by two touchdowns, smoked Duquesne, nearly upset Missouri on the road and beat Michigan State. The Eagles aren’t seven points worse than Virginia Teach.

(Friday)

Florida State +3 (-108 at DraftKings)
This is gross, we know. Florida State is 1-5 this season, and its only win against California really should’ve been a sixth loss. This isn’t a good football team, but neither is Duke. Although the Blue Devils are 5-1, they don’t have a signature win on their resume. Duke survived in overtime against Northwestern, barely beat Uconn and North Carolina thanks to some fourth-quarter heroics, and lost by 10 to Georgia Tech while giving up 245 rushing yards. Brock Glenn looked solid against a ferocious Clemson defense in his first start, and this is a much easier matchup coming off a bye. 

Purdue 1st quarter winner (+430 at FanDuel)
This is a brutal spot for Oregon coming off an emotional upset win against Ohio State. The Ducks have to quell the celebrations early and travel three time zones east to face a red-hot Purdue offense six days later. The Boilermakers dropped 40 points on a sturdy Illinois defense in the second half alone last week, and they averaged a ridiculous 9.2 yards per play in the 50-49 loss. Oregon’s talent should eventually win out in this matchup, but Purdue has the weapons on offense to throw an early punch and win the first quarter at a huge price. 

BYU team total over 31.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)
BYU has been a force in Provo this season. The Cougars are averaging 40.0 points per game and 6.3 yards per play in three home games this year. One of those games came against Kansas State, which boasts one of the best run defenses in the country. Oklahoma State has nothing to slow down this offense, as it ranks 130th in the country in opponent yards per game and 119th in opponent yards per rush.

NBA Futures: OKC is Built to Win this Year

Oklahoma City Thunder to win NBA Finals (+700 at ESPNBET)
The roster is incredible on paper with a blend of high-end talent and selfless glue guys. The additions of Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso complement the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — a leading MVP candidate — and Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, two of the league’s young and ascending stars. The old adage “it takes grown men to win the NBA title” applies here. The Thunder are a young team — especially relative to a typical title contender — that one may argue still has heartbreak to experience and wisdom to gain. That’s a fair reason to hesitate before backing the Thunder, but they’re certainly good enough to make it out of the West put themselves in position to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Oklahoma City Thunder to win NBA Cup (+850 at FanDuel)
We’re not suggesting the Thunder will claim the NBA’s first “double” — though it’s not an especially uncommon feat in European soccer. The Thunder have yet to reach the mountaintop, so they’re unlikely to be “too cool for school,” so to speak, during the regular season. Whatever that yields in terms of total wins, it’s fair to anticipate a dominant campaign, and with regular season dominance part of the equation, there’s reason to back the Thunder to win the NBA Cup, which could also serve as a modest playoff rehearsal for them.

Sacramento Kings to win Pacific Division (+290 at FanDuel)
This is as much a bet against the Suns as it is supporting the Kings. It’s reasonable to expect the Suns to be better with the big three they constructed last season, but it’s still a flawed roster with serious durability concerns. To Kevin Durant’s credit, he did play 75 games in 2024. That’s on the back of averaging 45.6 games played across his previous three seasons, so bearish bettors can be forgiven for their skepticism. Meanwhile, the Kings feature a blend of established and ascending young talent garnished with the sage wisdom of 15-year vet DeMar DeRozan.

Victor Wembanyama to record 6+ triple doubles (+1000 at FanDuel)
This is a +1000 bet for a reason, but there are a few factors for risk-willing bettors to consider. First of all, it’s not going to be foolish to pencil in Wembanyama for a double-double at the start of each and every game — he delivered 43 last season playing under 30 minutes per contest. Even if he’s the exact same player as last season — which by all accounts he isn’t — he would add to that number based on sheer volume. Secondly, the presence of Chris Paul, even at his age, will open up access to a new tier of development for Wembanyama. Paul will certainly control the rock when he’s on the floor, limiting Wemby’s assist rates, but so much of his value will be delivered beyond the boxscore as it pertains to helping Wembanyama take the next step. Also, Wembanyama won’t have to just rely on double-digit assists to claim his triple doubles. He had a game with 10 blocks his rookie season and flirted with this plateau on several other occasions. Again, six triple doubles is a lofty number — hence the long odds — but it’s a worthwhile play for bettors seeking plus-money profits.

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