Cooper Trade Boosts Bills and WR Left Behind in Cleveland

In today’s newsletter…

Yes we’re closing in on the World Series, a new WNBA champion is about to be crowned, the NFL is in full swing, there are huge college football matchups this weekend, the NHL has begun and the NBA regular season starts on Tuesday, but we’re also excited for Formula 1 coming back after what seemed like months (it was actually four weeks). Max Verstappen hasn’t won a race since June and not only has Lando Norris has closed the points gap to the three-time defending champion, Norris and teammate Oscar Piastri have McLaren in first place in the constructors standings over Red Bull.

It’s going to be an exciting final six races of the season, and F1 is in Austin this weekend — meaning the race is on at a reasonable hour in the U.S. (3pm ET on Sunday). FanDuel has Norris as the favorite to win the race (-115), followed by Verstappen (+410), Piastri (+500) and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc (+800). Because of the lead he built up early in the season, Verstappen is still at -220 to win the drivers championship, with Norris at +145. But the sportsbook has no faith in Verstappen’s teammate Sergio Perez to turn his season around (he currently sits in 8th), as it has McLaren as massive favorites to win their first Constructors’ Championship since 1998 (-1900).

In today’s newsletter we’re giving you triple NFL coverage: Chris and Craig look at Sunday’s matchups and we have this week’s Sportmoney x PFF collaboration. Craig is also covering the MLB playoffs, Jack is tracking Saturday college football, Sam analyzes the weekend’s Premier League matches and Abby writes about the impact of having Ohtani in the playoffs in her column.

- Abe Rakov

Panthers Allow Nearly 34 Points/Game, Commanders Give Up 24+, Yet Total is Set at 51.5

By Chris Farley

Browns +5.5 (-105 at DraftKings and Bovada)
We realize this is about as ugly as it gets. Virtually every NFL analyst has been blasting Cleveland for weeks on end and for good reason. Their defense isn't what it was in the past and DeShaun Watson often looks lost out there. Yet, despite one disappointing season after another, the Browns have owned the Bengals when they're at home the last two seasons. Joe Burrow struggled last week against a good Giants' defense, but the battle of Ohio brings a different intensity. The value is, unfortunately, on the home pooch, in yet another desperate spot.

Giants +3.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Few teams are as frustrating as the New York Giants. The improvement on their roster is obvious; they lead the NFL in sacks (26), rookie WR Malik Nabers is a superstar, and they haven't looked outmatched against above-average programs. Yet, they remain 2-4. New York could have easily won last week against Cincinnati, only to blow multiple red-zone opportunities and fall short. The Eagles are an organizational mess, and the media is all over Nick Srianni. Last year, New York beat up on Philly in a similar situation, and the Birds looked very average after a bye in Week 5. Sign us up.

Eagles first drive: Punt (+115 at DraftKings)
Speaking of how ugly it's getting in Philadelphia, they've been at their worst at the start of every football game. In 5 opening drives this season, they've gained only 22 yards, an astounding mark considering the talent of their offense. They're also the only NFL team that has yet to score a touchdown on its opening drive. The Meadowlands will be rocking in a rivalry where the Giants are starting to finally even the playing field. Even better for the home team — Philly's starting left tackle, Jordan Mailata, is doubtful. The Giants are 1st in sacks and havoc-rate, and we're happy to depend on their defense early.

Falcons team total under 26.5 points (+105 at Bovada)
The Falcons have some impressive victories, particularly at Philadelphia and versus the Bucs on Thursday Night Football. Otherwise they've looked average. None of their wins have come against top-tier defenses, and they were completely stifled by Pittsburgh and Kansas City. Off 10 days of rest and three straight losses, Seattle's schedule doesn't get any easier ahead. They need a rebound, and this is a good matchup. Rookie Byron Murphy II will return, a major addition for their defensive line, and they also brought in more depth, trading for veteran DT Roy Robertson-Harris this week. Atlanta only eclipsed this total against TB and CAR; we're not impressed.

Panthers vs. Commanders over 51.5 points (-105 at Bookmaker)
Why this total isn't in the mid-50s is quite the conundrum. Landover, Maryland will be in the upper 60s on Sunday, aka perfect football weather, and the electric Jayden Daniels will oppose the worst defense in the NFL. Carolina allows a disgusting 33.8 ppg to their opponents and have shown zero evidence that they'll improve, while Daniels leads an offense that has the highest percentage of drives ending in a score through their first 6 games in NFL history (61.8%). The Commanders aren't stellar defensively, either, allowing over 24 ppg to opponents, and at least the Panthers have been respectable lately (22.5 ppg in their last four). Points!

Chiefs moneyline (+107 at BetOnline)
It's unquestionable how effective the Chiefs are, whether we like it or not. Along with a 5-0 record, they own a litany of top-10 marks on both offense and defense. Even with an accommodating nod or two from the referees, there's nothing flukey about Kansas City's dominance. Despite their injuries they find a way, and no doubt Andy Reid will be ultra-prepared (with some trickery) for this battle. This game probably means more to the 49ers, but they're just too banged up. Their depleted defensive line is still struggling to get pressure outside of Nick Bosa, and multiple offensive skill-players are questionable. It's Chiefs or pass.

BONUS SNF/MNF Teaser: (6 pts, -120 at DraftKings) — Steelers from +2 to +8, Cardinals from +2.5 to +8.5
This qualifies as a picture-perfect Wong Teaser. The Steelers will host a melodramatic Jets' franchise that can't figure out how to score. The addition of Devante Adams will likely pay dividends, but expecting their offense to suddenly explode at Pittsburgh against TJ Watt is a ludicrous take. On the other side, we love what we're seeing from the Bolts, but a -2.5 spread is awfully assertive for a road team with very little offense. And while their defense has been good, outside of Patrick Mahomes, LAC took on Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, and Bo Nix. Kyler Murray is a different situation. In what profiles as a low-scoring game, this many points is prime-value.

Labar: Ohtani has been Clutch for Dodgers, Huge for MLB in 1st Postseason

Would he pitch? How big of a fireworks show would explode on the big stage? Would he fold under pressure? Fresh off of making history and riding the high of MLB’s first 50/50 season, all eyes were on Shohei Ohtani entering his first postseason. What’s the game without the game's biggest star in the playoffs? How did we survive without him before?! Regardless of who your team is, you can’t deny that you’re turning on the television to see what this unicorn can do, especially with the momentum he had riding into the postseason. 

Now in the heart of the NLCS (for context I’m writing this ahead of game three vs. the Mets), the numbers are proving it. Per MLB Network research, Game 1 of the NLCS between the Mets and Dodgers averaged 8.26 million viewers, which was the highest televised LCS Game 1 since the 2009 ALCS Game 1 between the Angels and the Yankees. 

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

Dodgers 1 Win Away from World Series, Turn to Flaherty to Eliminate Mets

By Craig Williams

Dodgers moneyline (-138 at FanDuel)
The clock appears to be striking midnight for this magical Mets squad, who are simply overmatched. Some suggest the Mets — under willing spender Steve Cohen and baseball savant David Stearns — will develop into “Dodgers East,” so it’s only appropriate they run into the buzzsaw that is the current Dodgers, who have posted a .795 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. Even with as well as southpaw David Peterson is performing for the Mets, subduing this stubborn and dangerous Dodgers lineup will be a tall task. That will especially be the case if the Mets’ bats can’t apply more pressure against right-hander Jack Flaherty, who was masterful over seven frames in Game 1.

Yankees vs. Guardians over 2.5 runs first 3 innings (+110 at DraftKings)
Yankees rookie right-hander Luis Gil hasn’t pitched since September 28. Meanwhile, Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams hasn’t pitched since September 22. Navigating the charged-up atmosphere of a playoff start will be challenging for the two young fireballers, who are almost certain to have excess juice early in the contest. Not only will each pitcher need to steady his heartbeat enough to find command and precision, but each lineup presents its own challenges as well. Gil will need to find a way to be effective without racking up strikeouts with the same ease as he often does. Meanwhile, Williams is tasked with quieting the Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton gauntlet. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see each pitcher struggle with rust and surplus adrenaline in this spot.

Georgia Travels to Austin as Tested Underdog in Showdown Against No. 1 Texas

By Jack Dougherty

Nebraska +6.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
This is unfamiliar territory for Indiana. The Hoosiers are ranked 16th in the AP Poll thanks to their 6-0 start under new head coach Curt Cignetti, but that could be a negative for them in this matchup. With recognition comes expectations, and with expectations comes pressure — pressure that Indiana and quarterback Kurtis Rourke haven’t felt before. This is by far the toughest team the Hoosiers have faced this season, and this line has crept out too far based on their undefeated record against a soft schedule.

Georgia Tech +10 (-110 at Bet365)
Georgia Tech has already played spoiler this season at a similar price range against Florida State, and it’s in a great spot to do the same against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish recently announced star cornerback Benjamin Morrison, a projected first-round draft pick, has been ruled out for the year. This just adds to the growing list of season-ending injuries that includes two offensive linemen and two defensive linemen. The Yellow Jackets can run the ball on anyone, and it’s hard to trust Riley Leonard to win by margin against a good team on the road.

New Mexico vs. Utah State under 78.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
This is a principle play on the highest total of the week — and one of the highest we’ll see all season. Since 2020, there have been 48 college football games played with a total of 75 or higher. The under is 32-16 in those games (72.9%). Both teams play fast and couldn’t care less about defense, but you need everything to go right for this game to go over.

Arkansas moneyline (+118 at Caesars)
College sports is so much more about “spots” than the pros. The emotional highs and lows of a college football season can take a toll on these kids, and it’s hard for them to get up for every game on the schedule. This is a brutal spot for LSU. The Tigers are coming off an emotional overtime victory against Ole Miss last week, and they’re looking ahead to a ranked date with Texas A&M next week with the College Football Playoff in their sights. It’s easy to overlook little old Arkansas in the sandwich spot. The Razorbacks are coming off a bye, and all they did before that was upset Tennessee and nearly beat Texas A&M on the road. 

Kentucky vs. Florida under 42.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
We’ve been advocating for Kentucky unders all season, and they just keep cashing. In UK’s six games this year, the final scores have finished with an average of 35.0 points. The Wildcats rank 127th in the country in seconds per play, 104th in points per game and ninth in opponent points per game. This is a ferocious defensive line that knows how to get after the quarterback, and that could be a problem for Florida now that Graham Mertz is out for the season. Good luck to DJ Lagway against this defense. 

Georgia moneyline (+172 at FanDuel)
Two principle plays in one week? That’s right: If the sportsbooks give you Kirby Smart and Georgia just to win a football game at this price, you simply have to consider it. Texas has looked unstoppable early in the season, but how impressive have the Longhorns really been if their best wins came against Michigan and Oklahoma? Georgia at least has been tested by Alabama and Kentucky’s elite defense. This is a game for Carson Beck to prove he’s still the best quarterback in the country.

Brown’s Jeudy Should See More Targets After Cooper Trade

By Craig Williams

Dolphins under 20.5 points (-118 at FanDuel)
The ‘Phins have averaged 10 points per game over their last four contests, including Week 2 when Tua Tagovailoa went down with a concussion. They’re 2-0 coming out of their bye under head coach Mike McDaniel, defeating the Las Vegas Raiders 20-13 in 2023 and the Houston Texans 30-15 in 2022. Both contests were at home. Until backup quarterback Tyler Huntley can get in sync with the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins are going to struggle to resemble the high-octane offense they were built to be.

Jaguars moneyline + Patriots vs. Jaguars under 42 points (+160 at DraftKings)
It’s desperation time for the 1-5 Jaguars, who may come back to the States with a new head coach if they lose two straight in London. “Hosting” the Drake Maye-led Patriots across the pond is about as favorable a scenario as one can imagine for the Jags. They should, in theory, be well-acclimated to London at this point, at least in comparison to the Patriots, who may still be affected to some degree by the novelty of playing overseas and the natural physiological adjustments that come with such a strenuous road trip. Even if the Jags prevail, we don’t necessarily trust them to do so in a clean and dominant fashion. The ingredients are present for an ugly, but much-needed Jags victory.

Brock Bowers over 59.5 receiving yards (-130 at DraftKings)
Move aside Carrie Underwood, it’s Bowers’ show in Las Vegas. The rookie tight end has already accounted for 22.5% of the Raiders’ targets, and it’s not unreasonable to expect 10-plus looks per game from this point forward as the unquestioned best player on offense. He went over this number in each of his last two contests, averaging 11 targets in the process. The Rams allowed a 6-67 line from Trey McBride on six targets in Week 2; and they surrendered a 4-88-2 line on five targets to Tucker Kraft in Week 5. Bowers is every bit on their level, to put it lightly, and he’ll be featured on Sunday and throughout the remainder of the season.

Jerry Jeudy over 47.5 receiving yards + over 3.5 receptions (-101 at FanDuel)
What more can one ask for as a wide receiver? Especially someone like Jeudy, who entered the league with high promise and potential. Well, Jeudy now has the No. 1 role all to himself in Cleveland, which should result in heavy volume — his 18.6% target share was second on the team, and he’ll usurp some or much of Amari Cooper’s 27.3% clip. The highest usage players after Jeudy are Jerome Ford (hamstring injury) and Elijah Moore (5.9 yards per catch), so we’re struggling to find his competition for opportunities. It’s no secret the Browns are bad. But it would be another new low for both Jeudy, the team, and the organization as a whole if Deshaun Watson can’t provide his new No. 1 target a 4-48 line against a mediocre pass defense.

Chelsea’s Palmer has 6 Goals and 5 Assists in just 7 Premier League Matches

By Sam Farley

Dominic Solanke to score or assist (-138 at Bet365)
We’re starting to see the real Dominic Solanke, who looks like a valuable addition to the Spurs’ team. In eight games for club and country since coming back from injury, he’s scored three goals and set up a further three, including an assist in just 18 minutes for England against Greece. He’s in good form and faces a West Ham team who look weak defensively.

Guido Rodriguez to get booked (+220 at BetRivers)
West Ham’s Guido Rodriguez is yet to truly adapt to the Premier League. He’s played seven games but already picked up two yellow cards and is averaging 1.35 fouls committed per game. He sits deep and anchors the West Ham midfield, which will put him in direct battle with Spurs’ James Maddison. Only two players have won more fouls than Maddison, who has already been taken down 19 times this season. He’s dangerous and quick with his feet. If Maddison invites challenges from Rodriguez then we could see the Argentine booked.

Aston Villa to win (+190 at FanDuel)
Fulham have started the season well, but Aston Villa have been excellent and will be ready for the trip to West London. Villa have been good on the road this season: playing three times, winning two and drawing the other. At +190 you’re getting a big price on one of the Premier League’s best teams.

Brentford to win or draw vs. Manchester United (+120 at Caesars)
Thomas Frank has a pretty bad record against Man Utd — with just one win and one draw in six games as Brentford manager. He might not ever have a better chance to take points off them than this Saturday. United are in crisis under Erik ten Hag, who is firmly on the hot seat. Pressure is increasing on the Dutch manager and United could be without as many as 10 players.

Man Utd under 0.5 goals (+630 at FanDuel)
The home team come into this game without a goal in their past three Premier League games. Incredibly, they’ve scored just five times in the league this season (with Southampton being the only team to score less). To put it into context, even bottom-placed Wolves have scored nine times. Odds of +630 are too big given their struggles in front of goal.

Bryan Mbeumo to score (+260 at FanDuel)
If Brentford are taking anything from this game then there’s a strong chance that Bryan Mbeumo will find the back of the net. He’s scored six times in seven Premier League games, a phenomenal record so far. He’s averaging 2.3 shots per game and has scored nearly half of Brentford’s 13 goals.

Sandro Tonali over 0.5 shots on target (+125 at Bet365)
Newcastle fans are delighted to have Sandro Tonali back after his lengthy ban. He’s started just two of five games since returning, but it’s expected that he’ll start nearly every game from now on. He’s had three shots on target since coming back, but given his limited playing time, he’s averaging 1.17 shots on target per 90 minutes played. He’s plus money for another at home to Brighton.

Bournemouth vs Arsenal under 2.5 goals (+120 at BetRivers)
We’re taking the under as Arsenal face a tricky road trip to Bournemouth. The Cherries have had under 2.5 goals in two of their three games at the Vitality Stadium, while the visiting Gunners have only had three or more goals in one of their three road games. With Bournemouth desperate for points and Arsenal facing an injury crisis, we could see a low-scoring game.

(Sunday)

Cole Palmer to score or assist (+105 at Bet365)
Liverpool have a fantastic defensive record this season but if anybody can find a way to tear them apart it’s Cole Palmer, who has arguably been the best player in the Premier League this season. He’s either scored or assisted in his past three Premier League starts and has six goals and five assists in just seven games.

Noni Madueke to have over 0.5 shots on target (+100 at Bet365)
Chelsea’s English wideman has cemented himself as a key player for his club this season and has nine shots on target in just six Premier League games. There are only six players with more, but Madueke’s 1.69 shots on target per 90 minutes played is hugely impressive and you would double your money if he has another on Sunday.

Sportmoney x PFF Week 7 Rundown: Wide Receivers

Read the full Sportmoney x PFF rundown, which also includes quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends, on our website: sportmoney.com.

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