In today’s newsletter…
Leading Off: Launching Sportmoney Daily
NFL: Ravens are giving up fewest yards per rush this season (3.0)
MLB: An early look at the World Series
NBA: Lakers allowed 30.2 ppg in 1st quarter last season
NFL Week 7 Insights: Undefeated Chiefs controlled line of scrimmage
Overtime: New York wins first WNBA title but not without controversy
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In today’s newsletter, Jack is covering both Monday Night Football matchups, Craig has early World Series lines, Chris takes a look at the tomorrow’s NBA opening night doubleheader (the NBA is back!), and we give you insights from Week 7 in the NFL.
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Chargers Rank 6th in the NFL in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game (97.2)
Jim Harbaugh | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
By Jack Dougherty
Rachaad White under 26.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
White might be the worst running back on this roster, and the Buccaneers are finally starting to figure that out. With White inactive last week, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker combined for 28 carries, 217 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Tampa Bay put up 51 points and cruised to an easy victory against the New Orleans Saints. Why would the Bucs go back to White right away? He’s still nursing a foot injury and averaging only 3.7 yards per carry this season. Meanwhile, the Ravens are giving up the fewest yards per rush in the NFL this season (3.0).
Zay Flowers over 5.5 receptions (+102 at FanDuel)
The Ravens offense has turned into Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson on the ground and Zay Flowers in the air. Jackson has targeted Flowers 21 times over the last two weeks, feeding him a 30.9% target share. He turned that into seven catches for 111 yards against the Bengals and nine catches for 132 yards against the Commanders. Flowers has gone over 5.5 catches in all four of Baltimore’s close games this season, and the Bucs are worse against the pass than they are against the run.
Sean Tucker anytime touchdown (+350 at FanDuel)
It’s anyone’s guess what Tampa Bay’s running back rotation will look like this week, so we’re betting into the uncertainty and taking the RB at the longest price to find the end zone. Sean Tucker rumbled for 136 yards and a score on 14 carries last week, while White hasn’t shown anything close to that explosiveness all season.
James Conner under 62.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Jim Harbaugh sets a standard for every defense he coaches, and it all starts with shutting down the run. Los Angeles ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (97.2) and eighth in yards allowed per rush (4.2). The weakness of this defense lies in the secondary, so Drew Petzing will try to exploit that with a heavy dose of Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. Conner is coming off a measly seven carries for 24 yards against the Packers, and it might be tough sledding again in this matchup.
Trey McBride anytime touchdown (+270 at FanDuel)
Trey McBride hasn’t scored a receiving touchdown yet this season, but this is a good spot for him to snap that streak. The Chargers load up to stop the run and can be beaten down the middle of the field, which is where McBride primarily operates. The talented tight end is emerging as Kyler Murray’s favorite target, as he’s seen 17 targets over the last two games. He also ranks second on the team in targets from inside the 15-yard line (three).
Kimani Vidal anytime touchdown (+350 at FanDuel)
With Gus Edwards out of the lineup last week, Kimani Vidal filled in and scored the first touchdown of the game on a 38-yard pass. The Chargers love his explosiveness and pass-catching ability out of the backfield, and he’s only going to see more work as the season goes on. Edwards is on injured reserve, so Vidal is going to operate as the No. 2 running back behind J.K. Dobbins. His price shouldn’t be this high considering how much the Chargers use their running backs.
A Look at World Series Opportunities as the Dodgers Face the Yankees Starting Friday
Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernández | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
By Craig Williams
Yankees to win World Series (+108 at FanDuel)
The sports gods don’t always deliver what sports fans desire, but that’s not the case here with baseball’s two biggest brands facing off in the Fall Classic. We’re taking a macro approach in this case. In a matchup that features two heavyweights, analysts can often toss stats out of the window. Seven-game series are viewed as the ultimate way to determine a league champion. However, when it comes to the Yankees and Dodgers, two teams that are so stout on paper, seven games is still a tiny sample. In a series that can go either way, look at the plus-money odds and the Yankees to hang banner No. 28.
World Series over 5.5 games (-185 at DraftKings); World Series over 6.5 games (+195 at DraftKings)
Anything can happen in the World Series after teams survive the drama and intensity of a league championship series. Still, we’re backing a long Fall Classic. The Dodgers went the distance (five games) against the Padres and needed six to dispatch the Mets. The Yankees have the ability — on paper — to push the Dodgers to another six games, if not the full seven. The Yankees are starting ace Gerrit Cole in Game 1 and likely following him with No. 2 Carlos Rodon. Those two will be positioned to account for at least four starts in the series, further supporting the idea of a long series.
Player to hit 2+ home runs (FanDuel odds): Juan Soto (-142), Giancarlo Stanton (-115), Mookie Betts (+186)
Mookie Betts’ odds to pop two dingers stand out here. He connected on two homers against the Mets and has four to his name in the 2024 postseason overall. Nothing about the World Series stage will phase Betts, who’s a two-time World Series champion; and assuming we get a long series, Betts will see plenty of at-bats. Giancarlo Stanton and Juan Soto are ones to watch here as well. It’d be unfair to the rest of the Yankees to call Stanton a “one-man wrecking crew,” but nobody can blame the Guardians for feeling that way after he launched four homers across five games in the ALCS. He’s batting .294/.385/.794 in the postseason overall, and has elevated his game under the bright lights of the playoffs. Speaking of bright lights and a big stage, Soto is built for this environment and the moments he’ll encounter over the next 6-7 games. He launched three homers against the Guardians, and he’s going to have pitches to hit throughout the upcoming series.
Gleyber Torres to record 6+ hits (+146 at FanDuel)
Don’t sleep on Yankees lead-off hitter — and pending free agent — Gleyber Torres, who collected eight base knocks in five games against the Guardians. Torres spent the ALCS wearing out the middle and right side of the field and taking what the opposition gave him. If he continues to employ a table-setting mindset, he’ll have enough at-bats to rack up the six base hits his backers need for a winning wager.
World Series MVP
It’s not always the most obvious star or slugger who claims individual accolades. That means there’s plenty of competition for the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. The following are a pair of “under the radar” World Series MVP candidates to consider:
Max Muncy (+1600 at ESPNBET)
The Mets couldn’t put away Muncy, who recorded five hits — including two homers — and 11 walks. Muncy doesn’t need a hitter-friendly environment to leave the yard, but playing up to three games at Yankee Stadium will put Muncy in position to inflict significant damage. With threats up and down the Dodgers lineup, Muncy is the type of power hitter who can feast on an opposing pitching staff that makes the mistake of exhaling after navigating the likes of Ohtani, Betts, and Teoscar Hernandez.Gerrit Cole (+3500 at FanDuel)
Bettors who back the Bombers will be counting heavily on their pitching to prevail over the course of 6-7 games. And it doesn’t get much better than opening the Fall Classic with Gerrit Cole on the hill. Barring a sweep, Cole will get a minimum of two starts, and it’s not unreasonable to anticipate three turns. At the very least, Cole will factor into a Game 7 should the series go the distance. And if the Yankees prevail, Cole will have likely done enough of the heavy lifting to warrant World Series MVP accolades.
Look for Offenses to Shine Early in Tomorrow’s NBA Opening Night
Karl-Anthony Towns | Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images
By Chris Farley
Knicks vs. Celtics over 222.5 points (-112 at FanDuel)
The Knicks were one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA last season (last place in tempo for most of the season), but that's bound to change. Defensive stalwart center Mitchell Robinson won't play until January, and the Knicks adding Mikal Bridges and Cameron Payne means more speed is incoming. The NBA loves to schedule these big matchups early, and they want points. It helps that neither team wants to risk any early injuries, too, so we doubt that the opener will reflect a "playoff intensity." With a ton of exceptional shooting talent on both rosters, points are-a-coming!
Knicks +5 (-105 at Bovada)
The Celtics are the returning champions, they're at home, and they have more continuity than the Knicks entering the season. Look to bet them in the first quarter or first half, but we still think it's a close game. The Knicks were ultra-banged up at the end of last year's campaign, falling short in the semifinals against the Pacers, but their reload is legitimate. All-star Karl-Anthony Towns joins their squad in the biggest trade of the offseason, and their starting 5 is among the most dynamic in the association. Few teams are as tough and well-coached; we think this one comes down to the final shot.
Jayson Tatum under 26.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Let's start off with pure data: In his last three games against the Knicks, Jayson Tatum has only scored 18, 19, and 25 points. The Knicks' defense was one of the best in the NBA last season, top-9 in opponent points, assists, and rebounds per game. They're better this year. Tatum won't have an easy time battling any of the Knicks' wings (Bridges, Hart, and Anunoby), and if there's one thing we're not afraid to call out that others won't, it's that Tatum often devolves in big-game situations. We'll continue to fade the overhyped Tatum all season in these spots.
Timberwolves -1.5 (-110 at BetOnline)
For the past three seasons, the Lakers have been very slow starters. Minnesota, on the other hand, exploded out of the gates last season, ranking 1st in defense through December 31st, and they were a top-5 shooting team on top of it. They also added Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, two versatile pieces that only make Anthony Edwards and a budding program more dangerous. While the Lakers always get love from the market because of their raw-talent, they're still far too dependent on LeBron James, and JJ Reddick is hardly qualified to coach an NBA roster. We believe this spread should be -4 or greater.
Rudy Gobert over 13.5 rebounds (+100 at FanDuel)
Last season, Rudy Gobert averaged 13 rebounds per game and that was with Karl-Anthony Towns on his roster. With Towns now gone to New York, Gobert is the only "tower" left in the T-Wolves' front court. Last year he was on the hardwood for 33 minutes per game, as much as any center in the NBA. Since newcomer power-forward Julius Randle loves to shoot from the perimeter as much as posting up in the paint, Gobert should occupy even more time below the rim, furthering his role as a dominant non-scoring force down low. His rebounding-totals should rise as the season goes on, so this is fantastic value.
Timberwolves 1Q (the line isn’t out yet, but take a look before tipoff)
Besides a bubble-championship just over four years ago, LAL is a program that cyclically underwhelms, especially on defense and in the first quarter. Last year we routinely watched the Lake-show playing catchup, a result of allowing 30.2 ppg in the first 12 minutes. Minnesota's defense will be very good this year, but they were also slow to start games (33-47 ATS last season), and these two teams averaged a combined 65 ppg in the 1Q in their last four regular season matchups. Expect fireworks in the first period.
Week 7 in the NFL by the Numbers
Brian Robinson Jr. | Amber Searls-Imagn Images
The Chiefs are the NFL’s last remaining undefeated team, as the Lions beat the Vikings on a field goal with 15 seconds to go. Here are some insights from Week 7 via NFL Next Gen stats:
The Commanders recorded an offensive success rate of 55.6% in their Week 7 win over the Panthers, their third game of the season with a success rate over 55.0% (no other team has more than one). The Commanders were particularly successful on the ground, recording a 56.8% rush success rate. The running game was led by Brian Robinson Jr., who totaled 71 rushing yards on 12 carries, generating +17 rushing yards over expected and a success rate of 75.0%.
With Travis Etienne inactive, Tank Bigsby took over lead RB duties for the Jaguars against the Patriots, accumulating most of his rushing production on runs inside the tackles (career-high 91 of his 118 rushing yards). Bigsby forced 7 missed tackles across 26 carries, his 2nd-most missed tackles forced on runs in a game this season.
T.J. Watt generated only 1 pressure across 39 pass rushes on Sunday night against the Jets, tied for the 3rd-lowest pressure rate of his career (2.6%). Watt matched up against Jets right tackle Morgan Moses on a majority of his rushes (1 pressure on 31 matchups). Part of Watt’s production dip was Aaron Rodgers propensity to get the ball out quick—Rodgers finished with an average time to throw of 2.46 seconds and only three dropbacks were over 4 seconds.
The Chiefs called 23 designed runs between the tackles, their most in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Chiefs rushers gained 81 yards and scored 2 touchdowns on those runs, recording a 47.8% success rate. This season, the Chiefs have recorded a 55.2% success rate on designed runs inside the tackles, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.
Jordan Love completed 24 of his 33 passes for 220 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in Week 7 against the Texans, recording a season-high +9.8% completion percentage over expected. Love also recorded 2 of his 3 touchdowns on passes of 10+ air yards, increasing his season total to 8.
Brock Bowers reeled in 10 receptions for 94 yards on Sunday, with all 10 receptions coming on targets under 10 air yards. Across 14 total targets, only one was over 10 air yards. Bowers ran only 7 routes from tight alignment (2 receptions for 12 yards on 3 targets), with most of his production coming on routes from the slot (6 receptions for 49 yards on 8 targets) and out wide (2 receptions for 32 yards on 3 targets).
In the News
New York wins first WNBA title, Minnesota coach says it was “stolen”: “The franchise that won the first game in WNBA history finally has won the last game of the season. More than 27 years after playing for league's inaugural championship and following several near misses, the New York Liberty became WNBA champions with a 67-62 overtime victory Sunday over the Minnesota Lynx. … With 6.3 seconds left in regulation, the Liberty had the ball, trailing 60-58. Stewart was fouled by Alanna Smith, a call the Lynx challenged. After the challenge was ruled unsuccessful, Stewart hit both free throws to tie the game at 60-60. Kayla McBride missed a 3-pointer for Minnesota, and the game went to overtime. Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve spent a considerable part of her news conference criticizing the officiating in Game 5 and the entire series, saying, ‘This s--- was stolen from us.’” [ESPN]
Dodgers and Yankees to meet in World Series for 12th time: “Broadway vs. Hollywood. Subway vs. Freeway. Judge vs. Ohtani. New York neighbors who became cross-country rivals, the Yankees and Dodgers renew their starry struggle in the World Series for the first time in 43 years. ‘When you’re playing for the Dodgers and playing for the Yankees, it better feel different,’ LA manager Dave Roberts said at Yankee Stadium last June. ‘If not, you better do something different for a profession.’ Two of baseball’s most successful teams face each other starting Friday at Dodger Stadium, the Yankees coming off their 41st American League pennant and the Dodgers their 25th National League championship. New York is seeking its 28th World Series title but first since 2009, the Dodgers their eighth and second in a five-year span.” [Associated Press]
Texas sticking with Ewers after awful Georgia game: “Despite benching Quinn Ewers for Arch Manning during No. 1 Texas' 30-15 loss to No. 5 Georgia on Saturday night, coach Steve Sarkisian said after the game there was not a quarterback competition. ‘Quinn's our starting quarterback,’ Sarkisian said. ‘I appreciate the fact that we're fortunate enough to have a backup like Arch that can come into the game and provide a spark in some sense, but at the end of the day, Quinn's our starter.’ Trailing 20-0, Manning entered the game with 4:43 left in the first half. … Overall, Ewers was 6-of-12 passing for 17 yards and an interception when he was benched.” [ESPN]
What to Watch
6:30pm: Monday Night Hockey on NHL Network, with the Lightning taking on the Maple Leafs
7:15pm: We have another 2-game Monday Night Football slate: Ravens vs. Bucs on ABC and Chargers and Cardinals at 8pm on ESPN
Photo of the Day
The Liberty won the WNBA championship in a winner-take-all Game 5 in Brooklyn | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
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