A Look at the Bucs and Falcons Thursday Night Matchup + more

In today’s newsletter…

Our guide to all of the Week 5 games is now on our website, so take a look. Before we get to today’s newsletter, here are a few insights from NFL Next Gen Stats to help you set your fantasy lineups:

In the newsletter, Chris is covering the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Bucs and Falcons along with WNBA playoff action, I break down today’s MLB playoff slate, and Jack is tracking Thursday and Friday college football.

- Abe Rakov

Tampa’s Defense, Early Injuries Should Keep Division Rivalry Game Low Scoring

By Chris Farley

Use Tampa Bay as a Teaser Leg (6 pts, +1.5 to +7.5)
We know this isn't an official side, one-legged teasers aren't a thing, but bear with us. This is a very evenly-matched contest. Both teams are incurring some serious injury concerns (Bijan Robinson, Mike Evans, and many others). And although the Falcons are at home, Tampa has been more consistent (even if it hasn't been that great, either). They're also neck and neck in total DVOA (ATL is 14th, TB is 15th). The Bucs have inherent value as a short underdog, but under two points isn't much. You're better off using this for a sturdy teaser leg, not an ATS wager.

TB vs. ATL under 44 points (-110 at Bovada)
Interestingly this total hasn't moved, and we get the confusion. Tampa and Atlanta have both had moments offensively, but neither team has been consistent. Tampa didn't hit more than 250 yards in 2 of their 4 games, and Kirk Cousins clearly isn't settled in yet (4 INTs). With injuries to stars like Mike Evans and Bijan Robinson, both outfits are far from 100%. And even though it's the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, this is a very meaningful game in the race for the NFC South crown. We see this as a typical, divisional war, with limited scoring.

Falcons First Drive: Punt (+115 at DraftKings)
We love what we saw from the Bucs' defense last week. Despite gaining 445 total yards, the most impressive showing came from Todd Bowles' defense. The group held Philly to only 227 yards, tormenting Jalen Hurts and his colleagues while accruing 7 tackles for a loss, 6 sacks and 6 QB hits. Vita Vea's return to action was the most obvious difference; pushing through an elite Philly offensive line all game. Kirk Cousins is famous for capitulating in prime-time, and we highly doubt he'll come out on fire with the momentum of Tampa's defense still running high.

Mike Evans over 59.5 yards (-113 at FanDuel)
This line is low because Mike Evans is pushing through a knee/calf injury, but we're not concerned. Evans has surpassed this mark in 4 out of his last 5 games against the Falcons, and this one profiles as a battle where he'll be needed more than ever. The Falcons' defense is known best for the talent in its secondary (AJ Terrell, Jessie Bates III, etc.), and the Tampa Bay wide-receiver depth chart is as banged up and shallow as it's ever been. Evans will likely suit up, and he'll be featured in big moments.

Breaking Down Today’s Wildcard Round Games

By Abe Rakov

We’ve got wildcard round action from 2:30pm to about 11pm today. Here’s a breakdown of the matchups (odds via FanDuel):

Oregon Offense is Rolling, Which is Trouble for Michigan State

By Jack Dougherty

Thursday: Sam Houston State vs. UTEP under 50 points (-110 at DraftKings)
UTEP is a bit of an anomaly in college football because it plays up-tempo offense but struggles to score efficiently. The Miners rank 14th in the country in seconds per play but dead last in red zone scoring percentage (33.3%) and 131st in points per play (0.171). Sam Houston State got into a shootout against high-flying Texas State last week, but the Bearkats typically want to play slower and ride their defense. 

(Friday Games)

Oregon -24 (-110 at Bet365)
These two teams are going in opposite directions right now. After a 3-0 start, Michigan State has dropped two straight games to Boston College and Ohio State. Aidan Chiles has thrown eight interceptions through five games, and carelessness with the ball will be trouble against an Oregon defense that can generate pressure and force you into desperate throws. The Ducks are starting to find a groove with two dominant wins in a row, while the Spartans are in a tough spot having to travel across the country and play on a short week. 

Syracuse vs. UNLV over 58.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)
This has all the makings of a shootout. Although UNLV lost its starting quarterback to a NIL dispute, it might’ve upgraded with Hajj Malik-Williams. The dual-threat backup went 13-16 for 182 yards and three touchdowns while adding 119 yards and a score on the ground in a 59-14 win against Fresno State. This run-heavy offense should feast against a Syracuse defense that ranks 119th in the country in opponent yards per rush attempt (5.7). On the other side, Kyle McCord leads the country in passing yards per game (364.8) and already has 14 touchdown passes through four games. 

Kyle McCord 325+ passing yards (+145 at DraftKings)
Syracuse is so in love with the McCord addition that it barely takes the ball out of his hands. The Ohio State transfer is averaging 44.4 pass attempts per game, and he’s gone over 325 passing yards in all four games thus far. The only competent passing offense UNLV has faced was Fresno State last week, and Mikey Keene racked up 316 passing yards on 41 attempts. 

Lynx vs. Sun Has Been Defensive Showdown, but Can Collier Break Out on the Road?

By Chris Farley

(Friday Games)

Lynx vs. Sun under 151.5 points (-110 at DraftKings, BetOnline)
Through two games, this semifinals series has been a pure, defensive showcase. When Connecticut won, they held Minnesota to just 25% from beyond the arc. Not so coincidentally, the Lynx held the Sun to the very same mark in their victory last night. Both programs are content with running at a very slow tempo (89 possessions per game), which makes it very difficult to reach a total like this. For the proverbial cherry on top, the Sun somehow play even slower on their home court, easily the most pedestrian pace of any WNBA team at any venue all season. Don't overthink this; another low-scoring battle is incoming.

Napheesa Collier over 20.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)
Napheesa Collier has seen her stock rise exponentially over the last two seasons. Forming into Minnesota's leader on both offense and defense, Collier has the finesse of an elite shooter with the blue-collar mentality of a rough and tumble lockdown defender — a complete player who routinely steps up for her team. In Game 2, she had a down performance, scoring just 9 points on 3-14 from the field. On the road, all of Collier's offensive ratings increase (20.6 ppg), and she tends to play her best in crucial moments. With the series tied 1-1 and moving to Uncasville, CT, the table is set for a breakout performance from Minnesota's star.

Liberty vs. Aces under 166.5 points (-110 at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetOnline)
The Las Vegas Aces gave it their all on Tuesday night, jumping out to a 27-22 lead in the first quarter and edging out New York in the fourth to make it a close finish. It just wasn't enough, especially on defense. The Aces are doing fine on the offensive end, maintaining a manageable 43% from the field. And in Game 2 they shot 44% from the perimeter, a mark that would typically equate to a win. But the Aces have also let their foe shoot upwards of 49% from the floor (50% in Game 1). This is a win-or-go-home scenario for Vegas and they're back in front of their fans. If there's any contest where they'll improve and slow down the mighty Liberty, it's this one.

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