Vikings are 6-0 ATS in the 1st Quarter this Season + NBA Props

In today’s newsletter…

The NBA started its season last night with a doubleheader — the Celtics trounced the Knicks and the Lakers beat the Timberwolves (Bronny played 3 minutes, all of which came in the second quarter and with his dad on the court with him). There are 1,228 games left in the regular season. Here’s where FanDuel has a few season-long bets:

In today’s newsletter, Chris is covering Thursday Night Football (Vikings vs. Rams), Craig and Jack give you double NBA coverage, we show you where the bettors are in weekday college football matchups, and you can read our guide to Week 8 in the NFL.

- Abe Rakov

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Vikings’ First Loss has Sportsbooks Nervous about TNF Matchup with Rams

By Chris Farley

Vikings -3 (+100 at FanDuel)
The Rams got a win on Sunday but it wasn't impressive. The hapless Raiders outgained them in first downs and total yards and covered the +7.5 closing line. LAR's wide-receiver room is beat up, but that's no excuse. A top-tier team would pummel the Raiders, but the Rams struggled even at home, even after a bye-week. The Vikings incurred their first loss of the season, but we're not worried. Minnesota matched Detroit in every statistical category in what could be a future playoff matchup. We also don't trust a Rams' defense that ranks in the bottom-fourth of the NFL in every major category. This is a discount.

Vikings vs. Rams under 48 points (-104 at BetOnline)
The total came out at 45 and was quickly adjusted up by big-money-bettors. We think it moved up too much. While we have little doubt that the Vikings can find offensive success against a struggling Rams' defense, we're not so sure about Matthew Stafford and his group. Stafford's efficiency has dropped dramatically against pressure this season, and the Brian-Flores' led defense will be angry (and aggressive) after allowing 31-points in Week 7. Oh, and the Rams still aren't sure how much Cooper Kupp will play, if at all.

Vikings 1Q -1.5 (+134 at DraftKings)
This line doesn't make sense, which beckons a spooky feeling. Halloween-hex incoming or not, there is no reason why we should be getting this kind of value on Minnesota. Sure, they're on the road on a short week, but the Vikings have been extremely consistent in the first quarter. Entering Week 8, they're 6-0 ATS in the first 15 minutes, and they average a league-best 9.7 points per game. The Rams know they'll need to slow down Minnesota to stay in this battle, but if better defenses couldn't stop Kevin O'Connell's program, this one shouldn’t either.

Vikings team total over 26.5 points (+114 at DraftKings)
The Rams' defense is, according to some, improving. We don't see that. Aidan O'Connell got injured early in Week 7, so Gardner Minshew came in and threw three interceptions, but that didn't stop the Raiders' offense from covering the number. The Rams' defense played decently against the Bears and Packers in recent losses, but Chicago is hardly elite and Jordan Love was fresh off an injury. The Vikings' offense has shown no signs of slowing down through 6 games, with one of the most potent passing attacks (8.4 yards per pass, 4th overall) in the NFL. We simply must look at this angle.

Looking Ahead to Sunday

Cardinals vs. Dolphins over 46.5 points (-105 at Bovada)
“I love this game. I love it to the death of me.” Whether you agree with Tua Tagovailoa’s decision to return to football or not, you have to admire his candor, even if it’s macabre. In any case, we imagine Tagovailoa will be extremely motivated to return at home against a good-not-great, and often inconsistent, Arizona defense. We also believe in the continuing prosperity of the Cardinals’ offense. Kyler Murray’s first fully healthy season in a long time is breeding results, James Conner is a workhorse, and TE Trey McBride is special. We see both offenses taking over and highly doubt this number moves down any further. Consider it now.

6-Leg Mega Moneyline Parlay: Jets + Packers + Texans + Lions + Chargers + Broncos (+418 on DraftKings)
It's rare that we suggest a parlay like this, we recommend just betting 0.5 units on it, but this is a unique situation. And it's more about these teams' opponents. The Patriots are a dumpster fire with a coach calling his players "soft." The Jaguars earned two wins against the Colts and Patriots. Big deal. The Colts are worse without Flacco and they're on the road against an angry Houston squad. The Titans are the second-worst team in the NFL on the road versus the our highest-power rated team. The Saints shouldn’t be able to move the ball against the Bolts, and Carolina's defense might make Bo Nix look like Joe Montana.

Trae Young Should Get Even More Shooting Opportunities after Dejounte Murray Trade

By Craig Williams

Pacers -4.5 (-105 at ESPNBET)
The Pacers are led by All-NBA point guard Tyrese Haliburton, and they’re operating under the same head coach and scheme as last season. On paper, a matchup against the young and perpetually rebuilding Pistons — even on the road — promises points. The Pacers finished top 3 in points, pace, field goal attempts, and offensive rating last season; not to mention, their average margin of victory over four games against the Pistons was 16 last season.

Scottie Barnes over 4.5 points 1st quarter (-154 at FanDuel)
Barnes is the centerpiece of the Raptors and is likely to lead the team in field goal attempts and usage rate as the offensive focal point. He’s also a well-rounded, three-level scorer who is improving his ability to get to the line. The Raptors have other capable scorers on the roster, but the team will be led by Barnes, and he’s likely to be involved in the scoring early and often for the Raptors.

Cavaliers over 115.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
The Cavs enter the season with ample offensive talent and a new head coach in Kenny Atkinson, who is installing a new offense. Former head coach J.B. Bickerstaff deployed a slow, defensive-minded approach that yielded 112.6 points per game, a figure that should climb with an increase in shot attempts and pace. The Raptors are not regarded as a stingy defensive team, even at home, so the Cavs, in theory, will enjoy themselves offensively.

Heat moneyline (-134 at FanDuel)
A team’s culture reveals itself over the course of years, even decades, and it can be tricky to apply it on micro levels. We’re citing “Heat Culture” here nonetheless. The Heat play host to the upstart Magic, who have to learn how to succeed with a target on their backs. Despite the reputation of Miami’s — “too cool for school” — fanbase, it’s reasonable to expect the Heat to come out with the requisite juice and focus to open the season in the win column.

Trae Young over 3+ 3-pointers (-180 at FanDuel)
The trade that sent away guard Dejounte Murray vacated 18.8 field goal attempts and 7.1 three-point tries. Dyson Daniels, who came over as part of the return package, will likely require more seasoning before he’s entrusted with significant shooting volume. In theory, Young should be in line for 20-plus shot attempts, including 8-9 three-pointers, at home against the rebuilding and lottery-bound Nets. We have to accept juice on these odds, but bettors seeking more profit could wager the over on 3.5 three-point conversions.

Andre Drummond over 13.5 rebounds (-110 at DraftKings)
The 76ers signed Drummond specifically to serve as quality cover for the oft-injured Joel Embiid. It was a shrewd move, as Embiid is slated to miss the first week of the season. In 10 starts last season, Drummond recorded 14 or more rebounds nine times and averaged 17.9 boards over that span. In fact, Drummond recorded three games of 20-plus rebounds, so it’s reasonable to expect him to start the season with an over in this category.

76ers +3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
It’s natural to overreact when a team’s stars are ruled out, but don’t be surprised to see the Sixers play the Bucks much tighter than expected. We’re not going to back the Sixers to win, but we will look for them to play a close and competitive contest behind Tyrese Maxey and head coach Nick Nurse. It’s not uncommon to see reserves and role players — especially at home — shine in small doses when thrust into heavier usage.

Where Bettors are Spreading their Money in Weekday College Football Games

(all lines via FanDuel)

Warriors Played the Slowest Pace in the NBA in Six Preseason Games

By Jack Dougherty

Josh Giddey over 6.5 assists (+122 at FanDuel)
We anticipate Josh Giddey being the primary playmaker and setup man for the Chicago Bulls. Zach LaVine and Coby White are much better scorers than playmakers, so they’ll likely play off the ball while Giddey initiates the offense. The Australian averaged a team-high 6.0 assists per game in the preseason, and that was in just over 23 minutes per game. He should see closer to 30 minutes in his Bulls debut.

Zach Edey to record a double-double (+240 at DraftKings)
We’re not sure how Zach Edey works out in the long run, but he should be able to put up stats early on as teams get used to his size and strength. This is a player who led college basketball in points per game, rebounds per game and field-goal percentage in each of the last two seasons. He recorded a double-double in 30 of his 39 games played last year. Edey has seven inches on Utah Jazz center John Collins, so the Memphis Grizzlies would be wise to attack that matchup.

Santi Aldama over 1.5 threes (+105 at DraftKings)
The Memphis Grizzlies are banged up entering the season. They will be missing Jaren Jackson Jr., Vince Williams and Luke Kennard for the opener, and Aldama could be the main beneficiary of those absences. Aldama is a floor-stretching forward who should operate on the perimeter with Edey taking up all that space in the paint. He should see plenty of catch-and-shoot opportunities set up by Ja Morant drives or Edey kick-outs from the post. Just knock two of them down. 

Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trail Blazers under 222.5 points (-110 at Bet365)
It’s easy to think of points when you see these two logos, but the Warriors and Trail Blazers want to be defensive teams. It’s a small sample size, but the Blazers and Warriors ranked first and third, respectively, in defensive rating in the preseason. Golden State also played at the slowest pace in the NBA in six preseason games. The Trail Blazers ranked 29th in the league in offensive efficiency last year, and with Klay Thompson gone, the Warriors lack offensive playmakers outside of Stephen Curry.

Draymond Green over 2.5 steals + blocks (+105 at DraftKings)
The Trail Blazers are a great team to fade with defense props because they’re incredibly careless with the ball. The Blazers ranked 29th in the NBA in turnovers per game (15.2) and dead last in steals allowed per game (8.9) last season. Anfernee Simons and Scoot Henderson coughed up a combined 9.8 turnovers per 100 possessions last year, and Deandre Ayton isn’t exactly strong with the ball down low. This team is going to struggle with Draymond Green’s physicality and aggressiveness on defense.

Phoenix Suns team total over 115.5 points (-102 at DraftKings)
The Los Angeles Clippers are in trouble in this matchup without Kawhi Leonard. They have no answers for Kevin Durant, Devin Booker or Bradley Beal on the perimeter. James Harden, Terrance Mann and Norman Powell could all be eaten alive by this talented starting five. The Suns should be able to name their score in this one. 

Grayson Allen over 8.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
All the focus will be on Durant, Booker and Beal in this matchup, and rightly so. With three dynamic scorers on the court, though, it’s easy to forget about Grayson Allen spotting up in the corner. Allen averaged 13.5 points per game last season and led the NBA in three-point field-goal percentage (46.1%), mostly because he saw so many open looks off kick-outs from the big three. This number is so low because Allen was dealing with an Achilles injury in the offseason, but if he plays, this is a buy-low spot for him.

NFL Week 8: Rookie Quarterbacks are Shining

Six quarterbacks were selected in the first 12 picks of this year’s NFL Draft, and picks 1 (Caleb Williams), 2 (Jayden Daniels) and 12 (Bo Nix) have started every game for their teams so far this season. Pick 3, Drake Maye, has started the past 2 games for the Patriots, while Michael Penix Jr., the eighth pick, is sitting behind Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, other than throwing and completing a 14-yard pass this past Sunday. J.J. McCarthy, pick #10, suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee during the Vikings’ first preseason game and is out for the season.

We give you that background because Williams and Daniels could face off on Sunday — if Daniels can come back from a rib injury that knocked him out of the game in the first quarter last week. Williams has the Bears at 4-2 and has thrown for 1,317 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. Daniels has led the Commanders to a 5-2 start, hasn’t lost at home, has the best completion percentage (75.6%) and third-best quarterback rating (73.7) in the NFL, and has added four rushing TDs. If you like the NFL, you’ve got to hope for this showdown this weekend.

There are no byes this week, so all 32 teams are in action. Head to our website for a rundown of all the Week 8 games featuring insights and player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats.

Read Sportmoney’s NFL Week 8 rundown on our website.

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