World Series Begins Tonight with Aces Facing Unreal Offenses

In today’s newsletter…

The World Series starts tonight, the NBA is back, the College Football Playoff picture is starting to come into focus and there are no byes in the NFL this week — so prepare for one of the most exciting sports weekends of the year.

In today’s newsletter, Chris is covering Sunday’s NFL slate, Jack takes on college football, Craig has Game 1 of the World series and tonight’s NBA action, Sam looks at the weekend’s Premier League matchups, and in her weekly column Abby got a heartfelt take from a Yankees superfan about what this World Series means to the team’s fans.

- Abe Rakov

Potential Tua Return Would Transform Dolphins’ Offense on Sunday

By Chris Farley

Dolphins -3.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
The Miami Dolphins are about to explode. The return of Tua Tagovailoa must beckon renewed energy in the building; hope that Miami can elevate its fortunes this season and rise to the top of a wide-open AFC East. There's no doubt that Miami's offense is better with Tua at QB, and we believe Mike McDaniel, whose game plan almost created a win at Indy last week with Tim Boyle playing behind center, is working overtime to ensure all the right schemes are in place for their success. This is a fantastic spot for Miami's regression, and we've seen the Cardinals capitulate in spots like this already this season (vs. Washington, at Green Bay). 

Jets over 24.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
The Jets' woes are all over pop-culture and sports media, but this is a pristine spot to fix some errors. Whispers that Jerod Mayo might be fired soon are circulating, and beat writers are reporting that the energy is abysmal, among players and coaches, in the Patriots' organization. A defense that's rapidly devolving (they're 25th in yards allowed per game, 29th in opponent third down conversion rate, etc.) is a perfect compliment for a Jets' offense that's in desperate need of more production. New England's pass defense is in the bottom-quadrant of NFL teams, and it helps that New York already dominated New England (24-3) a few weeks ago.

Bengals over 25.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)
The Eagles' defense played its best game yet last Sunday against the spiraling Giants, permitting just 118 yards to Big Blue at the Meadowlands. That still doesn't change our mind about them. At best, Philadelphia's defense is average, and after two down performances by Joe Burrow, the Bengals' pass offense is dying for improvement. Against good offenses (GB, ATL, TB), the Eagles have allowed 28 ppg and 415 ypg, and they were outgained in all three contests. At home and with plenty more winning to do, we expect Burrow and his colleagues to be at their best on an unseasonably warm and perfect day for offense in Cincinnati.

Falcons -2.5 (-115 consensus)
In the blink of an eye, things have gone from bad to worse for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield, who's mostly played very well, will enter Week 8 without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, his two top receivers. Tampa faces an Atlanta squad that played very poorly last week. Kirk Cousins and the offense just made too many mistakes (3 turnovers, 9 penalties, 3 sacks allowed vs. SEA), but talent-wise they have a huge edge in this contest. Cousins thrived in game one versus Tampa, adding up over 500 passing yards in a 36-30 OT thriller. We don't see how the decimated Bucs' offense can keep up this time. This feels like Atlanta or pass.

Bills vs. Seahawks under 46.5 points (-102 at DraftKings)
We really loved what we saw from Seattle's defense last week. The return of Byron Murphy II was a big addition for their defensive line. The attention he drew freed up other monsters, resulting in 3 sacks, 9 QB hits, and 6 tackles in a loss against a good Atlanta offense at home. Josh Allen eventually caught his stride and helped the Bills blow past the Titans last week at Orchard Park, but it hasn't been a smooth operation. Allen has only surpassed 250 yards passing in 2/7 games this season. Buffalo's defense (7th in opponent points/play, 5th in opponent yards/pass) has been stifling enough to carry the Bills through tough times, and we like both defenses to control this uncommon battle.

Raiders +10 (-120 at BetOnline)
This is the ugliest play we'll have all week, but we believe it's one we must look at. The Raiders are downtrodden again, stuck in quarterback-limbo, and Antonio Pierce is drawing serious criticism from the media. His time in Vegas might be coming to an end soon. In any case, this is the Raiders' Super Bowl. Last year at Arrowhead, the Antonio-Pierce-led Raiders held the Chiefs to just 14 points and beat the champions straight up. Will that happen this Sunday? Probably not, but the Raiders are not scared, and the Chiefs have been out of character as chalk (4-1 ATS this year compared to 15-17-2 ATS in two previous seasons). This is too much inflation.

49ers first half over 12.5 points (-125 at FanDuel)
The 49ers are officially a desperate team at 3-4, but they've been here before. Two years ago, San Francisco started 3-4 and ended up finishing 13-4 before losing to Philly in the NFC Championship. We suggest looking at their side this Sunday. We also like them to soar early. San Francisco's offense is still rated very highly. They're 3rd in total yards and 8th in first half ppg (14.6), for example. Even better, reports indicate that it's very unlikely that Micah Parsons will suit up for Dallas, which gives us no faith that a terrible Cowboys' defense will improve. San Fran dropped 21 in the first half last year on their rival before they could blink; we see a similar narrative on SNF.

Labar: State of the Yankees by Yankees Superfan Alex Day

With Game 1 of the World Series starting today, it’s hard to really put into words how spectacular this matchup is going to be. As somebody who’s covered a number of sports, I could argue it’s one of the most exciting that we have witnessed in quite some time in all of professional sports. Sure you can start by simply just listing off the star power involved on both sides, but that only scratches the surface of what we are about to watch. 

Ironically enough, this New Yorker was in Los Angeles at a sports bar watching Dodgers fans explode with the final out in Game 6 of the NLCS. I’ll be honest though: I felt more passion and emotion through the videos on social media of Yankees fans jumping for joy at their team clinching over the tangible emotion I could feel and see inside a Santa Monica bar. I’m not picking sides, I’m not trying to bash LA fans, and I know a small sports bar is a small sample size. I’m simply stating that I expected a more intense celebration – similar to that of what I saw happening in NYC just days prior. 

With that being said, I could justify picking one side for this column because I really do think there is something so unique and special about this experience for Yankees fans over the Dodgers fanbase.  

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

World Series Begins with Aces Facing Off Against an Army of Hot Bats

By Craig Williams

Daily Player Special: Each team to score 3+ runs (-113 at FanDuel)
Both the Yankees and Dodgers demonstrated their firepower in their respective league championship series, and even though both teams have their aces going, it’s difficult to imagine either lineup being shut down. Jack Flaherty enjoyed a gem to open the NLCS, but he sandwiched that performance between 12 earned runs across two starts. Gerrit Cole is certainly the guy any Yankees backer wants on the bump, but he surrendered four runs (three earned) in Game 1 to the Royals, and exited his lone championship series start in 4.1 innings.

Same Game Parlay: Gleyber Torres 1+ hits + Tommy Edman 1+ hits (+140 at ESPNBET)
Let’s start with Edman, who won NLCS MVP honors behind 11 hits (.407 BA). He really took off to close the series, collecting a pair of hits in each of the series’ final three games. Torres, meanwhile, settled into the leadoff spot full-time on August 16, and proceeded to bat .313 through the end of the season. He’s carried that into the postseason with a .297 batting average. He’s consistently working the middle and right side of the field, a trend that will come in handy if Flaherty tries to attack the Yankees on the outer edge of the plate like he did in Game 1 against the Mets.

Yankees moneyline (+108 at FanDuel)
These two teams are so evenly matched, the old cliche of “anything can happen” very much applies. In Gerrit Cole, the Yankees have a bonafide frontline ace on the hill who has World Series experience under his belt — he started two games in the 2019 Fall Classic. This isn’t to suggest Jack Flaherty will crumble under the spotlight. It’s just a tangible factor we’re considering in a case where it’s fair to argue that the outcome of Game 1, like the series, is a toss-up.

Gerrit Cole over 15.5 outs (+140 at FanDuel)
Cole hasn’t been clicking on all of his cylinders in October, but it’s difficult to find a starter with a better collection of tangible and intangible attributes built for the World Series stage. Chief among those intangibles is experience, and not just his raw number of starts (337 including postseason). It will be his ability to “properly” prepare — the key, as former champions will attest, is not changing routine — and slow down his heartbeat once the action begins.

Magic Scored 116 on Wednesday but Tonight’s Over/Under is 113.5 Against Worse Defense

By Craig Williams

Knicks -3.5 alternate spread (-145 at DraftKings)
We’re betting on a few things that don’t necessarily show up in the boxscore, including the atmosphere in the Garden. Don’t underestimate the home court advantage, particularly in clutch time. And it’s human nature for players to have a little more bite in a revenge spot (the Pacers knocked the Knicks out of the playoffs last season) — not to mention, the Knicks will want to make a statement after taking one on the chin at Boston in the opener. More tangibly, the Knicks (55.1%) shot better from the floor than the Celtics (50.5%), but it’s difficult to beat a team that shoots 47.1% on 61 three-pointers.

Same Game Parlay: Knicks -3.5 alternate + Pacers vs. Knicks over 223.5 points alternate (+180 at DraftKings)
We’re pairing two relatively conservative numbers for this parlay. Home court is theoretically worth three points. And nobody will fault you for adding another point to that theory in front of a Friday night Madison Square Garden crowd on opening night. It won’t come without offensive fireworks though. The Pacers scored and shot well, albeit against the Pistons, in their first game. And the overall opinion of the Knicks heading into the season is that they upgraded their offense at the mild detriment to their defense. They’ll need to outscore the Pacers to deliver the profit, but we like the risk-reward on the long odds.

Andre Drummond over 13.5 rebounds (-135 at DraftKings)
We’re going back to the well on Drummond boards. The silver lining from his near miss in the Sixers’ opener is that the Bucks shot 53.8%. The Raptors could very well improve on their 41.9% mark from Wednesday night — they shot 47.1% last season — but they will likely provide a few more errant chances for the big man to collect. Another factor will be Drummond’s ability to stay on the floor. The good news on that front is the Raptors don’t quite have the same caliber of troubling bigs as the Bucks presented on Wednesday.

Magic over 113.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
The Magic delivered an impressive victory in their opener, hanging 116 on the Heat in Miami. Until we see otherwise, there’s no reason to trust the lottery-bound Nets to play stingy defense, particularly on the road. We’re going to eye the Magic offensively in this spot and bank on them to deliver another quality showing. They only shot 42.7% on 96 shots, including 49 three-pointers, on Wednesday. They shot 47.6% last season, so there’s room for improvement, and if they can marry better shooting efficiency with a high volume of attempts, another high-scoring performance should be in the cards.

BYU is No. 1 in Luck Rating while Opponent UCF is 119th

By Jack Dougherty

Boise State -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
One of the biggest games of the week is going down on Friday night in Las Vegas, as Boise State and UNLV will battle it out with a potential College Football Playoff spot on the line. We love what UNLV has done this season with Hajj-Malik Williams taking over under center, but Boise State is the more battle-tested group. The Broncos nearly upset Oregon on the road and blew out Washington State, while the Rebels lost to Syracuse and don’t have a signature win on their resume. UNLV hasn’t seen anything close to Ashton Jeanty.

Nebraska team total under 10.5 points (-135 at DraftKings)
Dylan Raiola faced his toughest test of the season last week on the road against a solid Indiana defense, and he didn’t get a single question right. The true freshman threw three interceptions and looked overwhelmed in a tough environment. How’s he going to look at The Shoe against arguably the best defense in the country? Ohio State ranks second in the nation in points allowed per game, fourth in yards allowed per rush and eighth in sack rate. Coming off a bye week, this ferocious defense could pitch a shutout.

Illinois vs. Oregon under 55 points (-110 at Bet365)
Illinois knows it can’t go on the road and win a shootout against Dillon Gabriel, so we’ll likely see a similar game plan to the one Bret Bielema brought to Penn State in the 21-7 loss. Luke Altmeyer struggled to push the ball down the field against Penn State and Michigan, and we’re expecting more of the same against the Ducks. The secondary is the strength of his Illini defense, and it should have some success slowing down Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart. 

UCF -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
We’ve been searching for the right time to play against BYU, and this is a great candidate. The Cougars are extremely fortunate to still be undefeated, as they rank No. 1 in the country in luck rating this season. BYU survived an upset bid against Oklahoma State last week thanks to a miraculous 35-yard touchdown with 10 seconds left in the game. On the other side, UCF ranks 119th in luck rating, and it should’ve upset Iowa State on the road last week. The Knights should be able to run all over the Cougars in this matchup.

Michigan State +4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Anytime you can bet against Michigan needing to win by margin, you should look at it. The Wolverines are inept offensively, as they rank 112th in the country in total yards per game, 129th in yards per pass and 101st in points per game. Aidan Chiles went 22-30 and racked up 307 total yards and a touchdown against a strong Iowa defense last week. His dual-threat ability will be key in this matchup. As long as Chiles can protect the football, this should be a three-point game. 

North Texas moneyline (+260 at DraftKings)
This is a game with a ton of volatility due to the sky-high total of 68.5, and that volatility makes the underdog more valuable on the moneyline. North Texas can put up points against anyone. The Mean Green rank second in the country in total offense, sixth in yards per play and sixth in points per game. Chandler Morris and DT Sheffield make up one of the most dynamic QB-WR duos in America. They can keep up with Tulane and pull off the upset at home. 

Penn State -6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Wisconsin is going to be a popular upset pick this week. The Badgers have outscored their opponents 117-16 in their last three games, but it’s hard to take much stock in those performances considering they came against Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern. Wisconsin has stepped up in class twice this season: It lost to Alabama and USC by a combined 49 points, and Braedyn Locke struggled mightily in both games. The Nittany Lions have the best defense Locke will see this year.

Sancho has 3 Assists in 5 Matches for Chelsea, Spurs have Won 3 of 4

By Sam Farley

Aston Villa over 1.5 goals (-135 at Caesars)
Aston Villa come into Saturday’s match with Bournemouth with 15 goals in eight Premier League games, an average of 1.87 per game. However, they’ve scored at least two goals in five of their past eight matches and have both Ollie Watkins and Jhon Duran both in good form this season.

Bryan Mbeumo to score (+155 at FanDuel)
Last week Bryan Mbeumo failed to find the back of the net for the first time in four games. The Cameroonian has notched six times in eight games so far and is tied for second in the Premier League goalscoring charts behind Erling Haaland. He’s scored in every home game this season and will fancy his chances against newly promoted Ipswich Town.

Brighton to win + Brighton vs. Wolves over 2.5 goals (+120 at FanDuel)
Brighton entered this matchweek fifth in the table and coming in hot after two wins in a row. The same can’t be said for Wolves, who have just one point and have lost seven of eight games. They’ve given up a Premier League-high of 23 goals and face a Brighton team who have seen over 2.5 goals in three of their four games at the AmEx. Brighton should win in a high-scoring game.

Brighton -1 (+165 at BetRivers)
We’re doubling down on Brighton and looking at the Seagulls to win with a -1 handicap. They have seven goals at home this season, while Wolves have given up a staggering 11 in just four games away from home.

Everton vs Fulham under 2.5 goals (-111 at Bet365)
Neither of these teams have been in great form in front of goal. In eight games we’ve seen Fulham score 11 times, while Everton have managed to find the back of the net just eight times. Neither team will want to lose, so expect a low scoring, cagey game, between two low-scoring sides.

(Sunday)

Jadon Sancho over 0.5 assists (+333 at Bet365)
Jadon Sancho already looks like an inspired signing for Chelsea. The 24-year-old has played just five times for his new club, of which only four were starts, but he’s already set up three goals. He is a hugely creative outlet on the wing and should cause Newcastle real issues.

Marc Cucurella to be shown a card (+215 at BetRivers)
The Spaniard has been a liability for Chelsea this season, having already served a one-game ban for picking up five yellow cards in his first seven games. He’s going to come up against Newcastle’s Anthony Gordon here, who should play down the right. Gordon’s been getting fouled three times per game on average and if Cucurella fouls him, then he’s likely to get his name in the referees book.

Tottenham to win (-122 at BetRivers)
You’re getting a staggeringly good price on Spurs to win this one. We’re yet to see Crystal Palace win a game in the Premier League this season, and they come into this on the back of three straight defeats. Meanwhile Spurs have won three in four and have played brilliantly at times.

Tottenham -1 (+200 at BetRivers)
We’re doubling down on Spurs again, purely because of the value here — some sportsbooks are offering this at -130. Tottenham have scored 18 goals so far this season, while Palace are the lowest-scoring team in the league with just five. It’s potentially even worth considering the -2 handicap at +500 with FanDuel.

Arsenal vs Liverpool under 2.5 goals (+100 at BetRivers)
We always expect goals when the Premier League’s big sides meet, but it’s not often the case. Exactly half of Liverpool’s games have finished with under 2.5 goals, but crucially we’ve seen the under land in three of Arsenal’s four games on the road.

Sportmoney x PFF Week 7 Rundown: Quarterbacks

Read the full Sportmoney x PFF rundown, which also includes running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, on our website: sportmoney.com.

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