Will Giants Turn to Rookie WR in Must-Win MNF Matchup?

In today’s newsletter…

We have a sports equinox today — that means there are games on the schedule in all four major U.S. leagues: NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL. Unless a World Series game gets delayed/postponed, this will be the only sports equinox of the year. And as a bonus, there are also two MLS playoff matchups tonight.

There was a sports equinox on October 30th last year, and the first U.S. sports equinox ever recorded was on Sunday, October 17th, 1971. The highlight that day was the Pirates, led by Roberto Clemente, beating the Orioles in Game 7 of the World Series. And Dolphins Quarterback Bob Griese set an NFL record against the Patriots by completing three passes in a row that went for touchdowns.

In today’s newsletter, Chris covers the Giants vs. Steelers MNF matchup and early morning tennis in Hong Kong, Craig has the World Series and teams up with Jack for double NBA coverage, and we give you a rundown from Week 8 in the NFL.

- Abe Rakov

P.S. Have you thought about subscribing to Sportmoney Daily? We’re giving everyone who subscribes today their first month free so you can see what our 7-days-a-week coverage looks like when we launch on Nov. 1. Upgrade today!

Giants’ Rookie WR Nabers Gets 12 Targets per Game

By Chris Farley

Giants +5.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
At first glance this is a terrible spot for the New York Giants. We don't disagree — bad things are about to happen to Daniel Jones against a ferocious Steelers' defensive line, and we doubt this will be a pretty watch. Still, Big Blue's defense had been very formidable until last week, and this isn't the high-powered Eagles' offense. The Steelers have only played one game with Russell Wilson as their new QB. Not to mention, this is conceivably the Giants' season on the line, very likely out-of-contention if they end up 2-6 after this affair. As gross as it is, we'll look at the G-Men in a desperate situation.

Giants vs. Steelers over 36.5 points (-105 at BetOnline and Bovada)
It's completely understandable that this total is so low. It's hard to imagine either team rolling up and down the field against two very formidable defenses. And it's not like the Giants or Steelers are world-beaters on offense. In any case, Brian Daboll has been a terrific play-caller in games where New York has their backs against the wall, and they'll be dying to look better after the franchise's worst offensive showing in this millennium (not hyperbole) last Sunday against Philly. On the other side, Pittsburgh finally looked like a real offense last week with Russell Wilson at the helm, and we love that momentum, at home, heading into Monday.

Giants to record 5+ sacks (+1000 at FanDuel)
These odds are absurd for a very possible outcome. The Steelers' offensive line hasn't been very good this season, permitting a sack on 8.21% of plays (24th), and Russell Wilson is far from his athletic prime. Although it's hard to believe, the Giants lead the NFL in sacks, three above the next-best program (Denver with 28) and they haven't even played yet in Week 8. Dexter Lawrence, the Giants’ best defensive player, has been terrorizing guards and centers and owns a league-leading 9 sacks. In a matchup that gives Pittsburgh advantages at home and with a more operational offense, the Giants' pass-rush might be their only hope. This bet could be a great value.

Malik Nabers 1st quarter over 25 yards (+245 at DraftKings)
In case you don't know, Malik Nabers is already a very big deal. The 2024 6th overall draft pick has stats that make him among the best receivers in the NFL, which is remarkable considering he's only played 5 games. Philadelphia put the Giants away early in Week 7, on a day where Daniel Jones and the offense only mustered 119 total yards, which meant a pedestrian game for the Giants' new star. Pittsburgh's defense has a good brand, but they're 19th or worse against the pass in every major statistic. Nabers gets 12 targets per game, a ridiculous mark for a rookie, and he averages more in 1st quarter yards (18.8) than any other. We expect DJ to look for him early and often.

Soto is 3 of 7 with a HR and 2 Walks in First 2 World Series Games

By Craig Williams

Yankees moneyline (-146 at FanDuel)
We liked the series to go six or seven games heading into Game 1, and despite being down 0-2, the Yankees haven’t given us reason to shed faith in them. Especially not before they’ve even played a game at home. This particular selection is less about a statistical trend or nugget and more about remaining rooted to our original analysis of two evenly matched juggernauts destined for a marathon World Series. If our original hypothesis ultimately plays out, the odds suggest it’s much more likely to include a Yankees win in Game 3, and a comeback from a 1-2 series deficit, not an 0-3 hole heading into Game 4. 

Yankees over 4.5 runs (+104 at FanDuel)
We mean no disrespect to Clarke Schmidt, who delivered a pair of respectable postseason starts after a strong, albeit truncated, regular season. We’re just not banking on him shutting down the Dodgers en route to a Yankees win. He gave up two earned runs over 4.2 innings against the Royals and Guardians, two clubs that don’t match what the Dodgers present offensively. Instead, we’re looking for the Yankees bats to step up and be the driving force behind a victory tonight. They’ll face off against right-hander Walker Buehler, who has one stellar start and one dud under his 2024 postseason belt.

Juan Soto 1+ RBI (+195 at DraftKings)
Simply put, this is Juan Soto’s stage. He’s 3 of 7 with a homer and two walks in the first two games of the Fall Classic. Gleyber Torres needs to continue setting the table (two hits and a walk in nine plate appearances) at the top of the order, but we have confidence in the bottom third of the order coming through at home, and putting Soto in positions to inflict damage in a must-win contest. 

Yankees World Series winner (+360 at FanDuel) 
This is specifically for bettors who backed the Yankees entering the series. We’re citing and applying a couple of popular NBA playoff cliches. The first one is it’s not a series until the home team loses. The Dodgers did what they’re supposed to do by protecting their home turf, and now they’re tasked with going into the Bronx and winning on the road. The Yankees were right there in two games — an out away from winning Game 1 — so it’s not as if they’ll need a miracle to get the series back to Los Angeles. Secondly, we’re banking on the Yankees’ role players — “the others” as Shaquile O’Neal likes to call them — stepping up at home.

Doncic has Attempted 50 Shots in 2 Games and 24 were 3-Pointers

By Jack Dougherty

Luka Doncic over 3.5 threes (-105 at DraftKings)
Luka Doncic has been busy on the offensive end to start the season. The Dallas Mavericks superstar has attempted 50 shots through two games, and 24 of them were three-pointers. There’s no reason that trend will slow down against the Utah Jazz, which are giving up the most three-point attempts per game to opponents (47.5) this year. The Jazz rank sixth in the NBA in pace and 28th in defensive rating, so Doncic should have a big night in the scoring column.

Grizzlies team total over 120.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
The Chicago Bulls are going to give up a ton of points this season if they keep playing like this. Chicago plays at the fastest pace in the NBA by a wide margin, so it gives up the most field-goal attempts per game to opponents (99.0). Well, the Grizzlies play at the second-fastest pace in the league, so they have a good chance to put up well over 100 shots in this matchup. Memphis just put up 124 points against the defensive-minded Orlando Magic, and the Bulls only care about one side of the court. 

Ja Morant to record a double-double (+450 at DraftKings)
This play is correlated with the Grizzlies team total over. With how fast-paced this game profiles to be and how many shot attempts Memphis should put up, Morant has a great chance to record double-digit assists in this matchup. The star point guard has already dished out 10 assists in two of his first three games, so this price seems way too high. 

Suns -3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Los Angeles Lakers are 3-0 against the spread to start the year, so this is the perfect time to play against them in their first road game of the season. L.A. was a terrible road team last year, as it went 20-24 straight up and 21-23 against the spread in away games. The Lakers failed to cover by an average of 2.7 points on the road, which was the seventh-worst mark in the league. 

Anthony Davis to record 12+ rebounds (-135 at FanDuel)
Anthony Davis grabbed only eight rebounds in his first matchup against the Suns, but that total is a bit misleading. The Lakers center recorded 20 rebound chances in the game and failed to convert on half of them. Davis ranks second in the NBA in rebound chances per game (23.0) this season, and the Suns rank 29th in opponent defensive rebounding rate (86.6%). 

Domantas Sabonis under 12.5 rebounds (+100 at DraftKings)
Fading Domantas Sabonis in a rebounds prop is a scary proposition, but this is a brutal matchup for him. The Portland Trail Blazers surrender the third-fewest rebounds per game to opposing centers (10.8). They also crash the glass on the offensive end, as they rank fourth in the NBA in opponent defensive rebounding rate (68.8%). Sabonis hasn’t cleared 12.5 rebounds yet this year, and he’ll have a tough time doing so against Deandre Ayton and Donovan Clingan.

Heather Watson has Beaten Leylah Fernandez in Last 3 Matchups

By Chris Farley

WTA Hong Kong (early Tuesday matches)

Heather Watson over Leylah Fernandez (+430 at FanDuel)
Two familiar opponents square off in Hong Kong's first round on Tuesday as the tennis season nears an end. This is a highly volatile time among players, since all major tournaments are over and motivation can wane. Players like Leylah Fernandez, who's considered elite, can be easily upset — especially when they face familiar foes. Insert Heather Watson, who has defeated Fernandez in each of their last 3 matches. Her current form is also exceptional, having advanced to the finals recently at the Shrewsbury Open, defeating some legitimate contenders along the way. This is a fantastic price to take a shot on a pooch that's absolutely not a long-shot.

Aoi Ito over Katie Boulter (+290 at FanDuel and DraftKings)
You probably have never heard of Aoi Ito. That's okay, neither had we before last week, but she's been very relevant lately. The burgeoning Japanese player is only 20 years old but she's looked way beyond her years, winning 11 out of last 12 matches, including a run all the way to the semifinals at the Japan Open. Comfortable in her own country, she'll take on Katie Boulter, who's looked out-of-sorts. The Brit has only won half of her last 10 games and has not looked impressive in any way since arriving in Asia. She had an easy draw at the Japan Open before Sofia Kenin booted her out with ease, and Ito has serious momentum leading into this match. 

Magic Stingy Defense Could Keep Slow Starting Pacers’ Offense in Check

By Craig Williams

Knicks vs. Cavaliers over 221.5 points (-115 at ESPNBET)
For what it’s worth at this juncture of the season, the Knicks and Cavs rank 1-2 in effective field goal percentage, highlighting their early offensive rhythm. We’re still several weeks away from really being to sink our teeth into team stats and trends, but we’re certainly intrigued by the early indications that the Cavs are committed to playing a more offensive-minded brand of basketball. They rank 11th in pace through three contests, compared to 22nd last season under former head coach J.B. Bickerstaff. The Knicks, for their part, have given us reason to buy the preseason hype on their offensive upgrades.

Pacers vs. Magic under 224.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
There are a few factors influencing our under play. First of all, the Pacers have yet to hit their stride. We expect them to resume their place among the league’s top offensive units eventually, but they currently rank 24th in offensive rating after finishing No. 2 last season. And they’re playing in the second leg of a back-to-back after coming off of an overtime loss to the 76ers at home. They’re in Orlando tonight against the Magic, who finished with the league’s No. 2 defensive rating last season and are playing even stingier defense through three games.

Celtics -9.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Celtics look like a team on a mission even after coming off of a championship-winning season. They’re No. 2 in the league in scoring and No. 1 in offensive rating through three games. As solid as the Bucks may be defensively, we don’t foresee them putting up enough resistance to slow the high-flying Celtics. Secondly, the Bucks are entering the second leg of a back-to-back after defending 91 shots in a losing effort against the Nets. Exacerbating the challenge facing the Bucks is the Celtics’ strength at home in addition to their rest advantage.

Ridley Accounts for 39.5% of the Titans’ Targets in 1st Game after Hopkins Trade

The Chiefs stayed undefeated, Commanders won on a Hail Mary on a play a Bears’ DB will never live down and Cowboys fell to 3-4. Here are a few insights from Week 8 via NFL Next Gen Stats:

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