In today’s newsletter…
Leading Off: Get Sportmoney every day starting Saturday
NFL: Jets average 4.6 points in the first quarter
MLB: Cole has 2.86 ERA across 22.1 postseason innings
NBA: Thunder rank last in opponent defensive rebounds/game (40.7)
More NBA: Pacers were 10-3-1 against spread as home underdogs last season
College Football: Liberty looks to bounce back after shocking loss
NFL Week 9 Guide: Prescott projected to throw for 250.5 with 2 TDs
Overtime: Ohtani is bigger than a hometown hero
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In today’s newsletter, Chris has the Jets vs. Texans Thursday Night matchup and weekday college football, and Craig is covering Game 5 of the World Series and teamed up with Jack to give you double NBA coverage.
- Abe Rakov
Stroud has been Sacked 22 Times (4th in NFL) and Hurried More than Any QB (38 times)
Micheal Clemons (72) & Will McDonald IV (99) | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
By Chris Farley
Jets -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel and DraftKings)
Although much hype and fanfare occurred in the preseason, the Jets have lost their last five games and they've fallen to a despicable 2-6. We don't think their season will go far, but Thursday grants hope. C.J. Stroud is going through hell on every passing down, sacked 22 times (4th most) and hurried 38 times (most among all QBs) through 8 weeks. New York has steadily reached opposing QBs (3rd in sack rate), the Jets are beyond desperate, and the Texans are on a short week and on the road. Stroud could also see ghosts from last season, where he had his worst game as a pro yet (90 total passing yards) at MetLife in Week 14.
Texans vs. Jets under 42 points (-108 at DraftKings)
You might be wondering why this total is so low, especially considering the QBs. Aaron Rodgers is considered one of the best QBs the game has ever seen, and Stroud was already elite as a rookie. Unfortunately, they're both likely to have issues on Thursday. The Texans and Jets' defenses are both top-5 in pressure rate and their secondaries are among the most talented in the league. In previous contests against high-blitzing teams like Denver and Minnesota, Houston leaned on their run-game. We imagine the Jets will do the same, as Rodgers looks less-than-athletic at 40, almost 41 years old. We expect many rushing attempts, few explosive plays, and a low-scoring affair.
Texans vs. Jets 1st quarter under 7.5 points (-130 at DraftKings)
If we like this total going under, we must like a slow start. The Jets are almost always slow-starters; they rank 18th at 4.6 points in the first quarter. And while Houston is top-3 in the same category, we doubt points will come easily in this battle. Neither team has been explosive this season — Houston ranks 20th and New York ranks 25th in points per play — and less than one year ago Stroud took four sacks and hit under 50% of his passes (10 of 23) against the same Jets' defense. We expect the visitors to play conservatively, and a fledgling New York offense will be tested early against one of the NFL's best units.
Joe Mixon over 81.5 rush yards (-113 at FanDuel)
At first glance the Jets' run defense qualifies as above-average, at least according to some overarching metrics (they allow just 4.2 yards per rush, for example, a top-5 rank). After further inspection, you'll find that the Jets have allowed 100+ rushing yards in 6 of 8 contests this season. They also capitulate in big moments. The Texans are committed to Joe Mixon, a back that's averaging over 25 carries per game, and the former Bengal has eclipsed 100 yards in three straight. We especially like this wager as a hedge, since a Texans' win likely means they established a strong rushing attack for all four quarters. Either way, we love Mixon to get-his in a workhorse role.
Can Yankees Bats Continue Game 4 Momentum and Send World Series Back to LA?
Aaron Judge | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
By Craig Williams
Yankees over 4.5 runs (+115 at ESPNBET)
Baseball is a funny game. It doesn’t take a lot to turn the tide, and we saw the Yankees’ bats come alive on Tuesday night. That includes Aaron Judge, who finished 1 for 3 with a walk, run and RBI. Jack Flaherty is tasked with quieting the Yankees’ lineup in a clinching spot. He gave up two runs in five innings in Game 1, but we haven’t forgotten his last trip to New York City (3 IP, 8 ER). We’re not suggesting he’s destined for another dud, but we like the Bombers to battle in the season’s final game at Yankee Stadium.
Jack Flaherty under 14.5 outs recorded (+118 at FanDuel)
We like the under for a couple of reasons. First, if the Yankees do, in fact, carry over their live bats from last night, they’ll have an opportunity to inflict enough damage on Flaherty that they run him out of the game on their own. But it’s also about the strategy that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts employs as he tries to avoid flying back to Los Angeles with the series still up for grabs. There’s a day off scheduled after tonight’s contest, so Roberts likely won’t hesitate to be aggressive with his bullpen. That means Flaherty’s leash will likely be short, and it may not necessarily be through any fault of his own.
Gerrit Cole over 16.5 outs recorded (-120 at FanDuel)
Cole has more or less lived up to his billing as a frontline ace this postseason. His strikeouts are down and he’s only pitched beyond five innings in two of four starts, but he held the Dodgers to one run over six innings in Game 1. Cole has a 2.86 ERA and 3.12 FIP across his 22.1 postseason innings. A $300M-plus contract certainly doesn’t guarantee that Cole will perform tonight, but he earned that contract because he’s the guy the Yankees want on the hill in this spot. Cole won’t have free reign to consistently work into and out of trouble, but as long as he looks and pitches like himself, he will likely be afforded the opportunity to provide some length.
Morant Should Get Plenty of Chances Against Struggling Nets’ Defense
Ja Morant | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
By Jack Dougherty
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 3+ threes (+155 at DraftKings)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t been known as a three-point shooter, but he’s out to change that narrative this year. The Oklahoma City Thunder point guard is attempting 7.7 threes per game through three starts, which is substantially higher than his average of 3.6 last year. The San Antonio Spurs are getting torched by opposing point guards, as they rank 27th in points per game allowed and 28th in three-pointers per game allowed to PGs.
Julian Champagnie over 4.5 rebounds (+124 at FanDuel)
The Thunder went out to fix their rebounding problem by signing Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency, but the former New York Knicks player hasn’t been able to suit up yet due to a hand injury. Without him, OKC ranks dead last in the NBA in opponent defensive rebounds per game (40.7) and 28th in opponent offensive rebounds per game (15.0). The Thunder give up the second-most rebounds per game to small forwards and shooting guards. Julian Champagnie ranks third on the Spurs in rebound chances per game (9.0), and he’s cleared this mark in all three starts.
James Harden over 0.5 steals (-200 at DraftKings)
The Portland Trail Blazers are a great team to fade with defense props, as they rank 27th in the NBA in turnovers per game (18.0). Anfernee Simons (3.8) and Scoot Henderson (3.3) lead the way in turnovers per game, and that’s who James Harden will be matched up against for most of this game. Harden averages 1.5 steals per game in his career and has cleared this line in two of his three starts this season.
New Orleans Pelicans +2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
This line is an overreaction from Tuesday night’s result. The Pelicans were 1.5-point favorites against the Stephen Curry-less Golden State Warriors, and now they’re 2.5-point underdogs in the same matchup. The Warriors shot 21-46 (45.7%) from three, and the Pelicans coughed up 22 turnovers. Those stats are unlikely to repeat themselves after Willie Green makes his adjustments for the rematch. This line has moved too far.
Ja Morant over 25.5 points + assists (-105 at DraftKings)
This is a great matchup for Morant to fill up the stat sheet, as the Brooklyn Nets have no answers for his speed and athleticism. Dennis Schroder (123 defensive rating) and Cam Thomas (121 defensive rating) are two of the worst defensive guards in the NBA, and Morant should have no issues driving by them for easy buckets or kick-outs to wide-open shooters. The Memphis Grizzlies point guard ranks 12th in the NBA in potential assists per game (13.3), and he should go over that number in what will be a fast-paced game.
LaMelo Ball is Shooting 12 3-Pointers a Game and Hitting 41.7% of Them
LaMelo Ball | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
By Craig Williams
Hawks -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
We like the Hawks to hit the road and avenge their Monday night home loss to the Wizards. They were playing the second leg of a back-to-back after falling to the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Sunday night. Whether that warrants a reasonable excuse is a debate for another day. For tonight, however, it’s unlikely we see Trae Young shoot a woeful 2 for 15 with a plus/minus of -7. It’s one thing for a bad team to catch a better team sleepwalking from time to time, but to do so twice in the span of three nights is a different story.
Lakers under 110.5 points (-112 at FanDuel)
The Cavs are off to a stellar start under new head coach Kenny Atkinson, who appears to have married better offensive play with the defensive ruggedness that was instilled under the previous regime. And it’s the defense that intrigues us tonight. Specifically the size they can deploy against 5x All-NBA big man Anthony Davis. We’re not suggesting the Cavs will shut down Davis, but Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen both rank well in individual defensive efficiency, and if they can force the Lakers to run their offense through secondary channels, it may slow them down enough for the under.
Knicks moneyline (-125 at ESPNBET)
The Knicks’ 1-2 record can be excused to some degree because they lost to the Celtics and the Cavaliers. The Cavs, in particular, are performing as one of the top offensive and defensive teams in the league at this early juncture of the season. Winning in Miami isn’t easy, but the Heat aren’t scaring anyone offensively (19th in offensive rating), so even if their top-10 defense does its job, it may still be a slog. The Knicks, meanwhile, are better defensively than the numbers suggest thanks to that opening night onslaught they endured. They were 25-12 after a loss last season, and we’re looking for resilience in this spot as well.
LaMelo Ball over 3.5 three-pointers made (-140 at DraftKings)
In a case of “offense vs. defense,” we’re taking the offense. “Defense” is used loosely here as we’re not suggesting the Raptors are a quality defensive unit. What they’ve done so far this season, however, is limit three-point attempts by the opposition — 29 per game, fewest in the league. It’s too early to believe that metric has staying power. But Ball’s green light from deep? That is absolutely a constant that NBA bettors can count on. He’s averaging 12 three-point attempts per game and converting at a 41.7% clip. There are some players, including Ball, who simply won’t be denied their nightly allotment of treys. Simplicity aside, the Hornets also rank fifth in the league in three-point attempts, and we like them to set the tone at home against another mediocre squad.
Pacers +7 (-115 at DraftKings)
It’s been a rough start to the season for the Pacers. They’ve been on the road for three of their first four and they’ve faced tough competition over their last three games — each losses. We’re not suggesting they end their skid tonight, but we like them to give the visiting Celtics a competitive contest. They finished 10-3-1 against the spread as a home underdog last season and 28-19-2 at home overall (including postseason). The Celtics are not as efficient offensively on the road, a trend that is carrying over from last season. That may be enough to keep the Pacers within range for the cover.
Liberty Faces Tough Test Against C-USA Leaders After Season-Altering Loss
Kaidon Salter | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images
By Chris Farley
Liberty -2 (-110 at Bovada and BetOnline)
Last week Liberty likely lost their opportunity to enter the CFB Playoffs by falling 27-24 on the road against lowly Kennesaw State. The Flames' defense, which has allowed 24 or more points in 5 of 6 games this season, failed to make the big stops it needed to secure a victory. It's not easy backing a program after such a disappointing loss, but this is a proud team led by head coach Jamey Chadwell, who has brought Liberty to unparalleled success since joining in late 2022. The loss was also their first in Conference USA. While Jacksonville State has looked great in conference play, Liberty destroyed them last season and redemptive motivation is on their minds. They're also at home with little else to lose.
Western Kentucky over 37.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)
Last week Kennesaw State scored their first win of the season in impressive fashion, handing the Liberty Flames their first loss. Can the Owls upset another top team in Conference USA? We think not. The Owls have had moments of good defense this season, but they're far from dependable. They rank north of the top-100 in total defense and they're outside the top 120 in both pass EPA per play and pass success rate allowed. Following the excitement of a home victory last week, this is a ripe letdown spot against a potent passing attack that's in the top-32 in yards per pass (7.9) and yards per game (267.2). At home in a "blackout-game," the Hilltoppers will not relent; we love them to score at will Wednesday.
NFL Week 9: Showdown at Lambeau
Christian Watson | Tork Mason-Imagn Images
The Lions vs. Packers and Broncos vs. Ravens headline Week 9 in the NFL, and the Steelers and 49ers have byes. Head to our website for a rundown of all this week’s games featuring insights and player projections from NFL Next Gen Stats.
In the News
Colts to start Flacco this weekend: “The Indianapolis Colts are benching Anthony Richardson and turning to Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback, sources told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler and Adam Schefter. Colts coaches met Tuesday morning and ultimately decided to change quarterbacks, sources told Fowler and Schefter, opting for Flacco over the struggling Richardson. The benching came two days after Richardson asked to come out of Sunday's game against the Houston Texans for one play because, as he later told reporters, he ‘was tired.’” [ESPN]
Ohtani’s hometown in Japan celebrates the superstar in every way possible: “Shohei Ohtani’s hometown in northern Japan is a rural place, famous for its high-quality Maesawa beef, its history of making traditional ironware and the intense green hills and mountains that surround it. Japanese call such places ‘inaka’ — roughly translated as the ‘countryside.’ No glitz, quiet streets and up north — cold winters. It’s only 300 miles (500 kilometers) from Tokyo, but it seems farther away. These days, Oshu City is most famous for Ohtani himself, and the intense pride local people show for one of the game’s greatest ever players. He started in the local Little League with the Mizusawa Pirates, played for Hanamaki Higashi High School — a route that led him to the World Series.” [Associated Press]
An SI Q&A with Duke freshman Cooper Flagg: “Cooper Flagg is as hyped a prospect as the college basketball world has seen in recent years and many eyes will be closely watching his freshman year at Duke. Flagg's profile grew even larger on Tuesday, as Gatorade announced he is the first men's college basketball player to sign an NIL deal with the brand. … Flagg spoke to Sports Illustrated about what it means to become part of the decorated ranks of Gatorade athletes, why he partnered with the brand, and, of course, his favorite Gatorade color. Additionally, Flagg spoke on his adjustment to Duke in its early days, his favorite college players to watch all-time, and his experience on USA Basketball's Select Team battling against Team USA's Olympic squad this summer.” [Sports Illustrated]
What to Watch (all times ET)
7pm: Celtics vs. Pacers on ESPN to see if Indiana can shake off its slow start against undefeated Boston
8:08pm: Dodgers vs. Yankees on FOX in what could be the last baseball game of the year
Photo of the Day
The Yankees avoided a World Series sweep in the Bronx | Brad Penner-Imagn Images
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