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In today’s newsletter…
1. Leading Off: Preseason Super Bowl odds didn’t age well
2. Patriots vs. Broncos: Spread keeps inching toward Denver, but bettors are sticking with New England
3. Rams vs. Seahawks: First 2 matchups were decided by three combined points
4. By the Numbers: Three road underdogs to watch in today’s NBA slate
5. Overtime: College football transfer portal tampering continues
1. Leading Off
Six out of 10 games in this year’s NFL playoffs have been decided by four points or fewer. Today’s conference championship contests have spreads of 2.5 and 3.5, so at least the sportsbooks are expecting more entertaining and competitive matchups. But no matter what happens today, the NFC participant in Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, CA, is likely to be the favorite. That’s because despite winning week after week few people outside of New England believe in the Patriots, and the Broncos are playing with a backup quarterback.
The Eagles, Bills, Ravens and Chiefs began the season as favorites to win the title. Baltimore and Kansas City didn’t even make it to the playoffs, while Philadelphia lost a home game in the Wild Card Round and Buffalo fell in overtime last week. The missed expectations were too much for Ravens coach John Harbaugh and Bills coach Sean McDermott to keep their jobs.
As for the NFL final four’s preseason chances? The Rams were ahead of the rest of the field, tied for the eighth-best odds at 20-1 to start the season. The Broncos followed closely at 25-1. Teams including the Cardinals, Commanders, Bengals, and Vikings were ahead of the Seahawks, who tied the Cowboys for 19th at 60-1. And the Patriots were even with the Dolphins, Falcons and Jaguars at 80-1 with only eight teams having worse odds.
— Abe Rakov
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2. AFC Championship
Patriots Keep Winning But Sportsbooks Think Broncos Will Keep it Close With Backup QB
Drake Maye | David Butler II-Imagn Images
Sportsbooks continue to decrease the spread in this matchup. The Patriots are down to 3.5-point favorites against Broncos backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. Denver will also be without leading rusher J.K.Dobbins, but defense is expected to rule the day at Mile High. The Broncos allowed the second-fewest yards per game in the NFL, just a yard behind the Texans, who the Patriots just dispatched 28-16 in terrible conditions in Massachusetts last week.
The Patriots have won 15 of 16 games and their defense has given up an average of just 9.8 points over their last four. New England was also third in the NFL at 379.4 yards gained per game. With a shutdown defense and a consistent offense led by MVP-candidate Drake Maye at quarterback, the spread has gotten shockingly low against a team that has few pieces left that can move the ball.
Patriots (14-3, 8-0 Away) vs. Broncos (14-3, 8-1 Home)
3pm on CBS
The Odds
Spread: NE (-3.5, -118), DEN (+3.5, -104)
72% of the money and 70% of the bets are with NE
ATS | NE (road): 7-1, DEN (home): 6-4
Moneyline: NE -210, DEN +176
Total (42.5): Over -118, Under -104
NE: 12-7, DEN: 8-10
Head-to-Head
Patriots | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
Streak | W5 | W3 |
Last 10 | 9-1 | 9-1 |
Points/Game | 28.8 | 23.6 |
Opp Points/Game | 18.8 | 18.3 |
Pass Yards/Game | 250.5 | 223.9 |
Rush Yards/Game | 128.9 | 118.7 |
Opp Yards/Game | 295.2 | 278.2 |
Players to Watch
NE QB Drake Maye | Pass Yards: 223.5 (254.8 - 179, 268, 191, 256, 380), Pass Attempts: 29.5 (28.8 - 27, 29, 18, 21, 44), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.8 - 3, 1, 1, 5, 2), Rush Yards: 29.5 (27.7 - 10, 66, 41, 22, 25)
NE RB Rhamondre Stevenson | Rush Yards: 50.5 (45.4 - 70, 53, 131, 47, 51), Carries: 12.5 (8.2 - 16, 10, 7, 8, 8), Anytime TD: +130 (0.6 - 0, 0, 3, 2, 1)
DEN WR Courtland Sutton | Rec Yards: 46.5 (59.4 - 53, 5, 40, 86, 113), Receptions: 4.5 (4.3 - 4, 1, 4, 6, 7), Anytime TD: +270 (0.4 - 0, 0, 0, 1, 1)
DEN RB RJ Harvey | Rushing Yards: 39.5 (31.1 - 20, 28, 43, 50, 65), Carries: 11.5 (8.4 - 6, 15, 14, 7, 19), Anytime TD: +125 (0.7 - 0, 0, 1, 1, 1)
*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)
2. NFC Championship
Rams vs. Seahawks Round 3 Comes After 2 Close Calls for LA in Playoffs and a Seattle Blowout
Kenneth Walker III | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
The Rams and Seahawks are playing for the third time this season, with both teams winning at home by a combined three points in their previous matchups. Los Angeles led the NFL is scoring during the regular season while Seattle gave up the fewest points in the league. The Rams win in Week 11 was a much more Seahawks-like game in a 21-19 contest where Los Angeles got out to a 14-3 lead and never looked back. Seattle’s victory in Week 16 was a 38-37 shootout that involved a Seahawks comeback after being down 30-14 in the fourth quarter and a successful two point conversation for the win in overtime.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford didn’t throw a touchdown pass for the first time all season in Los Angeles’s 20-17 overtime win in Chicago in the Divisional Round last week. That came after a 34-31 win in Carolina where the Rams gave up touchdown and the lead with 2:39 left but managed a frenetic comeback. The Seahawks earned a bye and then dismantled the 49ers 41-6 in the most impressive win of the NFL playoffs so far.
Rams (12-5, 5-4 Away) vs. Seahawks (14-3, 6-2 Home)
6:30pm on FOX
The Odds
Spread: LAR (+2.5, -118), SEA (-2.5, -104)
72% of the money and 66% of the bets are with SEA
ATS | LAR (road): 5-5, SEA (home): 5-4
Moneyline: LAR +118, SEA -138
Total (45.5): Over -115, Under -105
LAR: 11-8, SEA: 10-8
Head-to-Head
Rams | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
Streak | W3 | W8 |
Last 10 | 7-3 | 9-1 |
Points/Game | 30.5 | 28.4 |
Opp Points/Game | 20.4 | 17.2 |
Pass Yards/Game | 268.1 | 228.1 |
Rush Yards/Game | 126.6 | 123.3 |
Assists/Game | 327.5 | 285.6 |
Players to Watch
LAR QB Matthew Stafford | Pass Yards: 256.6 (227.3 - 258, 304, 259, 269, 457), Pass Attempts: 35.5 (35.8 - 42, 42, 40, 38, 49), Pass TD: 1.5 (2.6 - 0, 3, 4, 2, 3)
LAR WR Puka Nacua | Rec Yards: 91.5 (104.6 - 56, 111, 76, 47, 225), Receptions: 7.5 (8.0 - 5, 10, 10, 5, 12), Anytime TD: +120 (0.6 - 0, 2, 1, 1, 2)
SEA QB Sam Darnold | Pass Yards: 231.5 (231.8 - 124, 198, 147, 270, 271), Pass Attempts: 29.5 (27.4 - 17, 26, 27, 34, 36), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.4 - 1, 0, 1, 2, 0)
SEA RB Kenneth Walker III | Rush Yards: 83.5 (63.5 - 116, 97, 51, 100, 17), Carries: 19.5 (13.3 - 19, 16, 15, 11, 9), Anytime TD: -140 (0.3 - 3, 0, 0, 1, 0)
*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)
4. By the Numbers
Thunder and Spurs Are Both 12-Point Favorites, Bettors Are With SA But Against OKC
Victor Wembanyama and De'Aaron Fox | Peter Creveling-Imagn Images
NBA
Kings (12-34, 3-18 Away) vs. Pistons (32-11, 17-5 Home)
SAC (+14, -110), DET (-14, -110): 64% of the money and bets are with SAC
ATS | SAC (road): 8-13, DET (home): 11-11
Total (224.5) | SAC: 22-24 (110.9 ppg), DET: 17-26 (116.9 ppg)
Nuggets (31-15, 19-7 Away) vs. Grizzlies (18-25, 9-13 Home)
DEN (+3, -106), MEM (-3, -114): 55% of the money and 67% of the bets are with DEN
ATS | DEN (road): 17-9, MEM (home): 9-13
Total (224.5) | DEN: 27-19 (120.7 ppg), MEM: 19-24 (115.5 ppg)
Raptors (28-19, 15-9 Away) vs. Thunder (37-9, 20-3 Home)
TOR (+12, -112), OKC (-12, -108): 56% of the money and 63% of the bets are with TOR
ATS | TOR (road): 14-10, OKC (home): 12-11
Total (225.5) | TOR: 19-28 (114.3 ppg), OKC: 23-23 (121.3 ppg)
Pelicans (11-36, 4-17 Away) vs. Spurs (31-14, 16-5 Home)
NOP (+12, -110), SAS (-12, -110): 52% of the money and 55% of the bets are with SA
ATS | NOP (road): 10-11, SAS (home): 11-9-1
Total (238.5) | NOP: 25-22 (115.1 ppg), SAS: 18-28 (117.9 ppg)
Nets (12-31, 6-14 Away) vs. Clippers (20-24, 12-9 Home)
BKN (+9, -106), LAC (-9, -114): 66% of the money is with BKN but 54% of the bets are with LAC
ATS | BKN (road): 9-10-1, LAC (home): 10-11
Total (210.5) | BKN: 17-26 (108.3 ppg), LAC: 22-22 (112.3 ppg)
MCBB
Oregon (8-11, 1-7 Big Ten) vs. Washington (10-9, 2-6 Big Ten)
ORE (+9.5, -110), WAS (-9.5, -110): 59% of the money and 63% of the bets are with ORE
ATS | ORE (road): 1-3, WAS (home): 6-4
Total (146.5) | ORE: 9-10 (73.9 ppg), WAS: 7-12 (79.4 ppg)
USC (14-5, 3-5 Big Ten) vs. Wisconsin (14-5, 6-2 Big Ten)
USC (+6.5, -102), WIS (-6.5, -120): 84% of the money and 60% of the bets are with WIS
ATS | USC (road): 2-3, WIS (home): 6-5
Total (159.5) | USC: 9-9 (82.6 ppg), WIS: 12-7 (84.3 ppg)
Florida Atlantic (14-6, 6-1 American) vs. South Florida (12-7, 4-2 American)
FAU (+4.5, -102), USF (-4.5, -120): 51% of the money is with USF but 52% of the bets are with FAU
ATS | FAU (road): 4-2, USF (home): 4-4
Total (166.5) | FAU: 10-8 (83.1 ppg), USF: 10-8 (89.8 ppg)
NHL
Avalanche (34-6-9, 14-4-5 Away) vs. Maple Leafs (24-18-9, 16-7-6 Home)
COL (-1.5, +134), TOR (+1.5, -168): 94% of the money and 60% of the bets are with COL
ATS | COL (road): 10-13, TOR (home): 12-17
Moneyline | COL -182, TOR +150: 80% of the money and 86% of the bets are with COL
Total (6.5) | COL: 23-26 (3.94 gpg), TOR: 30-21 (3.31 gpg)
Devils (27-22-2, 15-13-0 Away) vs. Kraken (22-19-9, 11-9-5 Home)
NJ (-1.5, +186), SEA (+1.5, -235): 77% of the money is with NJ but 74% of the bets are with SEA
ATS | NJ (road): 13-15, SEA (home): 17-8
Moneyline | NJ -125 SEA +104: 56% of the money and 64% of the bets are with NJ
Total (5.5) | NJ: 21-30 (2.61 gpg), SEA: 20-30 (2.76 gpg)
5. Overtime
In the News
The Steelers hired Aaron Rodgers’ former longtime coach Mike McCarthy to follow Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh. McCarthy was the head coach of the Packers for 13 seasons, and Rodgers was his starting quarterback from 2008 until the coach was fired midway through the 2018 campaign. The two won the Super Bowl together in 2011. McCarthy lasted five years at his next stop with the Cowboys, where he went 1-3 in the playoffs. Rodgers has been noncommittal about whether he will return for his 22nd season or if he would stay with the Steelers if he does.
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has had it with a lack of rules, or at least enforcement, in the college football transfer portal. Swinney claims Mississippi coach Pete Golding texted Clemson transfer Luke Ferrelli “I know you’re signed, but what is your buyout?” after the linebacker committed to the Tigers. Swinney said even after he had his staff tell Ole Miss that they were aware of the improper recruitment and would turn them in if it continued, Golding kept tampering — so Swinney went public. Ferrelli ended up reentering the portal 16 days after signing with Clemson and is now committed to Ole Miss.
In more college football’s chaotic rules news, Miami linebacker Mohamed Toure is planning to return to the school for an eighth year of eligibility. In 2019, Toure redshirted as a true freshman at Rutgers and stayed at the school until transferring to the Hurricanes for the 2025 season. He received multiple free years while in New Jersey when he didn’t play. Toure had 84 tackles and two sacks for the national championship runners up.
Three freshmen men’s basketball players had 40+ point scoring games yesterday, as No. 11 Illinois’ Keaton Wagler scored 46 of his team’s 88 in a win over No. 4 Purdue and No. 13 BYU’s AJ Dybantsa put in 43 in a win over rival Utah. Dybantsa, who is a top-three pick in most 2026 NBA mock drafts, beat Danny Ainge’s school freshman record by a point. Wagler scored the Illini’s first 14 and 24 of the team’s 39 first-half points. And No. 6 Houston’s freshman Kingston Flemings netted 42 points in a loss to No. 12 Texas Tech.
Real Madrid superstar Kylian Mbappé passed Manchester City phenom Erling Haaland for the most non-penalty goals scored since the start of last season with 38. Mbappé has 20 goals in 20 La Liga games this season and has 87 total goals in 87 appearances since joining the club in the summer of 2024.
What to Watch (times ET)
9am: Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea on USA
11:30am: Arsenal vs. Manchester United on NBCSN
12pm: Juventes vs. Napoli on Paramount+
1pm: Florida Atlantic vs. South Florida [MCBB] on ESPN2
1:30pm: Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs on NHL Network
2pm: No. 12 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Iowa [WCBB] on Peacock
2:45pm: Roma vs. AC Milan on Paramount+
3pm: Patriots vs. Broncos on CBS
3pm: No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 2 South Carolina [WCBB] on ESPN
4pm: USC vs. Wisconsin [MCBB] on Peacock
5:30pm: Warriors vs. Timberwolves on NBA TV
6:30pm: Rams vs. Seahawks on FOX
7pm: Panthers vs. Blackhawks on NHL Network
8pm: Australian Open on ESPN2
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