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In today’s newsletter…
1. Leading Off: Patriots spread is still relatively small despite facing backup QB
2. Game of the Day: Thunder are back on track, face middling Bucks
3. Scouting Report: Duren is steadily increasing minutes for Pistons
4. By the Numbers: Texas and Kentucky average a combined 169 points per game
5. Overtime: A star quarterback is being sued for entering the transfer portal
1. Leading Off
Even with an untested quarterback starting for the Broncos on Sunday, sportsbooks are being cautious with the AFC Championship game. FanDuel has the Patriots as 5.5-point favorites in Denver in a relatively low-scoring contest with a 42.5-point total. New England was 8-0 on the road this season with wins in Buffalo, Baltimore and Tampa Bay. And while the Mile High City’s altitude could impact the Patriots, the cold shouldn’t make a difference — the current weather report calls for a partly sunny day with a high of 38 for the early-afternoon kickoff.
New England’s defense, while not as stout as Denver’s 278.2 yards conceded per game, was still eighth in the NFL during the regular season at just under 300 yards a week. The Patriots gave up 18.8 points per game, only a half-point more the third-ranked Broncos. So it’s unlikely the books are worried about New England’s ability to slow down Denver, and the low total backs that up. Which begs the question: Why is there a lack of trust in MVP-candidate Drake Maye’s ability to get an easy win against a backup quarterback that hasn’t thrown a pass in a non-preseason game in over two years?
Maye just went 16-27 for 179 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in rough conditions against the NFL’s best defense in the Texans. He threw for 268 yards the game before against a Chargers pass defense that ranks better than the Broncos, though the Patriots managed just 16 points — their lowest output since a Week 3 loss to the Steelers. From Week 4 through the end of the regular season, under Maye’s direction New England averaged 30.7 points per game (the Rams led the league at 30.5 for the year) and went 13-1.
The second-year quarterback had just eight interceptions in 492 pass attempts this season, while Denver’s Jarrett Stidham has thrown eight picks in 197 attempts in his entire six-year NFL career. Maye is a sizable underdog at every sportsbook to Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford for the NFL’s MVP award (from -145 to +115 at BetMGM to -450 to +350 at FanDuel), but he’s almost certainly going to finish second if he doesn’t win. Patriots and Maye doubters have said the team and quarterback benefitted from a weak schedule. If they’ve been lucky this season it happened again with Bo Nix’s broken ankle, but the sportsbooks still aren’t completely sold.
— Abe Rakov
What do you think of the Patriots' 5.5-point spread against the Broncos?
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2. Game of the Day
Thunder Back to Winning Ways, Face Struggling-to-Break-Through Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
The Bucks are still six games under .500 and outside of even the play-in spots in the East, but any time Giannis Antetokounmpo goes up against the NBA’s best it’s worth a watch. Antetokounmpo has been making more of an impact on the glass than by scoring lately, which should be useful for Milwaukee with Oklahoma City center Isaiah Hartenstein still out. The Bucks’ superstar has scored below his season average in four of his past five games at 23.8 points a contest.
Oklahoma City looks to be back in form after a 27-point loss to Charlotte capped off a 5-5 stretch. The Thunder have won six of seven since, including a 32-point blowout over the Cavaliers on Monday. Reigning league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s January has been his lowest-scoring, rebounding and assist month of the season, but he’s still averaging over 30 points a game.
Thunder (36-8, 16-5 Away) vs. Bucks (18-24, 9-10 Home)
9:30pm on ESPN
The Odds
Spread: OKC (-9.5, -110), MIL (+9.5, -110)
76% of the money and 61% of the bets are with OKC
ATS | OKC (road): 10-11, MIL (home): 8-11
Moneyline: OKC -405, MIL +315
Total (224.5): Over -114, Under -106
OKC: 22-22, MIL: 17-25
Head-to-Head
Thunder | Bucks | |
|---|---|---|
Streak | W1 | W1 |
Last 10 | 7-3 | 5-5 |
Points/Game | 121.4 | 112.4 |
Opp Points/Game | 108.0 | 115.6 |
Rebounds/Game | 43.8 | 40.4 |
Opp Rebounds/Game | 45.3 | 44.7 |
Assists/Game | 25.8 | 26.2 |
Players to Watch
OKC G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Points: 31.5 (31.8 - 30, 39, 20, 34, 29), Reb: 4.5 (4.3 - 1, 4, 2, 5, 5), Ast: 6.5 (6.2 - 3, 3, 4, 5, 8)
OKC C Chet Holmgren | Points: 18.5 (18.0 - 28, 14, 18, 8, 16), Reb: 9.5 (8.4 - 8, 11, 9, 10, 10), Ast: TBA (1.6 - 2, 2, 1, 0, 2)
MIL F Giannis Antetokounmpo | Points: 28.5 (28.5 - 21, 21, 25, 31, 21), Reb: 10.5 (9.8 - 17, 5, 8, 8, 6), Ast: 5.5 (5.5 - 6, 1, 5, 11, 5)
MIL F Bobby Portis | Points: TBA (13.1 - 19, 13, 14, 14, 11), Reb: TBA (6.4 - 3, 6, 7, 2, 12), Ast: TBA (1.3 - 1, 3, 1, 0, 3)
*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)
3. Scouting Report
Duren is Steadily Increasing Minutes After Injury, Towns Grabbed 11+ Boards in 6 of 7
Jalen Duren | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Knicks C Karl-Anthony Towns (vs. Nets)
The Knicks were booed by their home fans on Monday in their second loss in a row at Madison Square Garden where they couldn’t eclipse 100 points. New York has lost four straight and nine of 11 as injuries have piled up as performance has faded. Towns’s scoring average is way down this month (17.7 compared to 22.3 in December), but he’s grabbed 11+ rebounds in six of seven matchups for a 12.4 average. He scored 37 and added 12 boards when these teams played in November, and had 28 and 12 in the first head-to-head of the season.
Points: 21.5 (21.0 - 22, 23, 17, 13, 20), Reb: 11.5 (11.6 - 18, 11, 20, 4, 11), Ast: 2.5 (3.0 - 4, 2, 2, 1, 3)
BKN - L2 (2-8 L10) | Points Allowed: 114.3 (10th), Reb Allowed: 43.1 (12th), Ast Allowed: 27.7 (26th)
Pistons C Jalen Duren (at Pelicans)
Cade Cunningham is on a cold streak (he’s scored 16, 16 and 10 in his past three games and had 23.5% and 18.8% shooting days), so there’s always a chance he breaks out in a big way because he’s due. But we’re tracking Duren today. He had a slow end to 2025 then missed four games with an injury, and he’s still looking to return to his November form (21.5 points and 12.6 rebounds). Duren played 30+ minutes for just the second time over his past seven games on Monday, which is a good sign that he’s feeling healthier. If he can inch closer to his November minutes average (31.8), more production should follow.
Points: 17.5 (17.8 - 18, 15, 16, 12, 14), Reb: 11.5 (10.7 - 9, 8, 18, 5, 8), Ast: TBA (1.8 - 1, 4, 2, 0, 2)
NOP - L2 (2-8 L10) | Points Allowed: 122.2 (28th), Reb Allowed: 45.2 (23rd), Ast Allowed: 28.9 (29th)
Avalanche C Nathan MacKinnon (vs. Ducks)
Only the Canucks allow more goals per game than the Ducks, and nobody has more points so far this season than MacKinnon — he averages nearly two per game. MacKinnon also has games with five, eight and 10 shots in his past five outings and notched 3+ points in three of five. He had three assists and three shots when these teams played in November, a 4-1 Avalanche win. Colorado’s 4.02 goals per game is over a half a goal more per game than the next-best team in the NHL and 1.6 better than the lowest-scoring squad (St. Louis).
5+ Shots on Goal: -115 (4.7 - 10, 4, 3, 8, 5), Anytime Goal: -120 (0.8 - 2, 0, 0, 0, 1), Points: TBA (1.8 - 3, 1, 3, 0, 4)
ANA - W4 (4-5-1 L10) | Goals Allowed: 3.57 (31st), Shots Allowed: 28.6 (20th), Save Percentage: .883 (31st)
*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)
4. By the Numbers
Knicks Have Lost 9 of 11 Games, Nets Are NBA’s Lowest-Scoring Team
Mike Brown | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
NBA
Cavaliers (24-20, 10-9 Away) vs. Hornets (16-27, 7-12 Home)
CLE (-2.5, -110), CHA (+2.5, -110): 75% of the money and 68% of the bets are with CLE
ATS | CLE (road): 8-11, CHA (home): 11-8
Total (237.5) | CLE: 21-23 (119.6 ppg), CHA: 18-25 (116.4 ppg)
Nets (12-29, 6-13 Away) vs. Knicks (25-18, 16-6 Home)
BKN (+11.5, -110), NYK (-11.5, -110): The money is 50/50 but 55% of the bets are with BKN
ATS | BKN (road): 9-9-1, NYK (home): 14-8
Total (222.5) | BKN: 16-25 (109.0 ppg), NYK: 24-20 (117.9 ppg)
Hawks (20-25, 13-12 Away) vs. Grizzlies (18-23, 9-11 Home)
ATL (+2, -110), MEM (-2, -110): 58% of the money and 57% of the bets are with MEM
ATS | ATL (road): 14-11, MEM (home): 9-11
Total (238.5) | ATL: 23-22 (117.5 ppg), MEM: 17-24 (115.1 ppg)
Pistons (31-10, 13-6 Away) vs. Pelicans (10-35, 7-18 Home)
DET (-9.5, -110), NOP (+9.5, -110): 56% of the money and 53% of the bets are with DET
ATS | DET (road): 10-9, NOP (home): 14-10-1
Total (234.5) | DET: 17-24 (117.3 ppg), NOP: 24-21 (114.9 ppg)
MCBB
Notre Dame (10-8, 1-4 ACC) vs. No. 22 North Carolina (14-4, 2-3 ACC)
ND (+11.5, -110), UNC (-11.5, -110): 76% of the money and 64% of the bets are with UNC
ATS | ND (road): 4-1, UNC (home): 7-4
Total (148.5) | ND: 11-7 (73.4 ppg), UNC: 7-11 (81.9 ppg)
Georgetown (9-9, 1-6 Big East) vs. Villanova (14-4, 5-2 Big East)
GTN (+9.5, -104), VIL (-9.5, -118): 52% of the money is with GTN but the bets are 50/50
ATS | GTN (road): 3-2, VIL (home): 5-5
Total (144.5) | GTN: 12-6 (76.6 ppg), VIL: 10-8 (78.6 ppg)
Texas (11-7, 2-3 SEC) vs. Kentucky (12-6, 3-2 SEC)
UT (+7.5, -114), UK (-7.5, -106): 72% of the money and 65% of the bets are with UT
ATS | UT (road): 2-1, UK (home): 6-6
Total (154.5) | UT: 10-7 (86.3 ppg), UK: 8-10 (82.9 ppg)
Virginia Tech (14-5, 3-3 ACC) vs. Syracuse (12-6, 3-2 ACC)
VT (+3.5, -106), CUSE (-3.5, -114): 54% of the money is with CUSE but the bets are 50/50
ATS | VT (road): 3-0, CUSE (home): 5-6
Total (151.5) | VT: 11-8 (82.3 ppg), CUSE: 9-9 (75.7 ppg)
NHL
Red Wings (30-16-4, 12-8-3 Away) vs. Maple Leafs (24-17-8, 16-6-5 Home)
DET (+1.5, -265), TOR (-1.5, +210): 76% of the money is with TOR but 74% of the bets are with DET
ATS | DET (road): 13-10, TOR (home): 12-15
Moneyline | DET -102, TOR -118: 56% of the money is with TOR but the bets are 50/50
Total (6.5) | DET: 25-25 (3.10 gpg), TOR: 29-20 (3.37 gpg)
Islanders (27-17-5, 13-9-3 Away) vs. Kraken (21-18-9, 10-8-5 Home)
NYI (-1.5, +205), SEA (+1.5, -260): 84% of the money is with NYI but 71% of the bets are with SEA
ATS | NYI (road): 16-9, SEA (home): 16-7
Moneyline | NYI -118, SEA -102: 78% of the money and 65% of the bets are with NYI
Total (5.5) | NYI: 24-25 (2.88 gpg), SEA: 20-28 (2.75 gpg)
5. Overtime
In the News
Former Jets head coach and current 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is reportedly set to be hired by the Titans, replacing Brian Callahan, who was fired midway through his second campaign earlier this season. The fact that Tennessee chose a head coach from the defensive side over the other finalist, Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, means it’ll be looking for support for last year’s No. 1 pick, quarterback Cam Ward, elsewhere. In other NFL coaching news, fired Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel canceled his interview with the Browns, who are looking for a new head coach, and instead is taking the Chargers’ offensive coordinator opening.
National Champion Indiana starts the next college football campaign at No. 1, according to ESPN’s Mark Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early Top 25. Texas and Notre Dame, which both missed out on the College Football Playoff this season, come in at 2nd and 3rd. An eye-opening ranking? Alabama at 21st. “With the way the 2025 season ended … coach Kalen DeBoer is undoubtedly on the hot seat entering his third season in Tuscaloosa,” Schlabach wrote.
Warriors forward Jimmy Butler tore his ACL and is out for the rest of the season, and Golden State’s already slim chances to make any noise in the playoffs are just about gone with him. Dan Devine at Yahoo Sports wrote about how the Warriors built this team to compete last season and this year, with maybe a chance for one more after that. But now, is the dynasty officially over?
Duke is suing the team’s star quarterback from this past season, Darian Mensah, in an attempt to stop him signing a contract with a new school and transferring. Mensah had announced he was returning to the school he led to an ACC title, but changed his mind and entered the transfer portal last Friday. The quarterback signed a two-season contract with Duke, which the program says prevents him from playing elsewhere. Attorney Darren Heitner, who the AP reported has previously worked with Mensah, wrote on social media that he “is not, for the time being, allowed to enroll at another school or play football at another school” because of a judge’s preliminary ruling.
Carlos Alcaraz has beaten Jannik Sinner in seven of their past nine meetings, so even though Sinner won two of four majors last year and finished No. 2, he made changes to his game ahead of his Australian Open title defense. “The serve, we changed a couple of things. But [it’s] all small details. When you are at the top level, small details make the difference,” Sinner said. Last year’s Australian Open was the only Grand Slam tournament that didn’t feature a Sinner vs. Alcaraz final, as Alcaraz lost to Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinal.
What to Watch (times ET)
3pm: Marseille vs. Liverpool [Champions League] on Paramount+
7pm: Cavaliers vs. Hornets on ESPN (or Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs on TNT)
9pm: Australian Open on ESPN2 (or Cincinnati vs. No. 1 Arizona [MCBB] on FS1)
9:30pm: Thunder vs. Bucks on ESPN (or Islanders vs. Kraken on TNT)
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