In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: What to watch for in today’s three-game NFL slate

2. Game of the Day: Newcomer Jags favored at home against playoff veteran Bills

3. Scouting Report: McCaffrey became bigger rushing threat for 49ers as season progressed

4. By the Numbers: Patriots get first home playoff game since 2019

5. Overtime: Indiana is favored to win the National Championship

1. Leading Off

A day after the home underdogs went 1-1, today’s three NFL playoff slate features three home favorites and spreads within six points. None of the three games is a rematch of a regular season contest, unlike yesterday’s matchups featuring familiar opponents (the Rams survived the Panthers and the Bears came from behind to beat the Packers).

The day will be split with recent postseason veterans and franchises that haven’t seen much success recently. The Eagles are the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Bills have won five straight first-round matchups, and the 49ers made it at least to the NFC Championship in three straight years before missing the playoffs last season. On the other end of the spectrum, the Jaguars haven’t won a playoff game since 2022, and Chargers and Patriots since 2018.

— Abe Rakov

2. Game of the Day

Jaguars Favored at Home Against Bills, Lawrence Has Thrown for 250+ in Last 4 Games

The Bills have won five straight Wild Card Round games, while the Jaguars are looking for their first playoff victory since the 2022 campaign. Jacksonville already has as many wins this season as it did in the past two years combined, and its 13 victories are the most since 1999 (14). The last time these teams faced off in the postseason was in 2017, when the Jaguars won 10-3 in Jacksonville before beating the Steelers and falling to the Patriots in the AFC Championship game.

The Bills come into the game winners of 5 of 6, and the Jaguars have won 9 of 10. Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the NFL in his last five games, averaging nearly 275 passing yards per game and throwing 13 touchdowns. Buffalo running back James Cook III picked up the slack at the end of the year when quarterback Josh Allen was uncharacteristically pedestrian, averaging 104.4 rushing yards across his final five matchups.

Bills (12-5, 5-3 Away) vs. Jaguars (13-4, 7-2 Home)
1pm on CBS

The Odds

• Spread: BUF (+1.5, -118), JAX (-1.5, -104)

  • 52% of the money is with JAX but 51% of the bets are with BUF

  • ATS | BUF (road): 4-4, JAX (home): 7-1

• Moneyline | BUF +104, JAX -122: 60% of the money and 57% of the bets are with BUF

• Total (51.5): Over -115, Under -105

  • BUF: 9-8, JAX: 10-7

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• BUF QB Josh Allen | Pass Yards: 227.5 (229.3 - 262, 130, 193, 251, 123), Pass Attempts: 32.5 (28.8 - 35, 19, 28, 28, 23), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.6 - 0, 0, 3, 3, 1), Rush Yards: 38.5 (36.2 - 27, 17, 48, 78, 38)

• BUF RB James Cook III | Rush Yards: 79.5 (100.4 - 74, 117, 107, 80, 144), Carries: 18.5 (19.2 - 20, 16, 22, 18, 32), Anytime TD: -165 (0.9 - 0, 2, 3, 0, 0)

• JAX QB Trevor Lawrence | Pass Yards: 234.5 (235.7 - 255, 263, 279, 330, 244), Pass Attempts: 32.5 (32.9 - 30, 37, 36, 32, 30), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.7 - 3, 0, 3, 5, 2), Rush Yards: 25.5 (21.1 - 11, 26, 20, 51, 16)

• JAX WR Parker Washington | Rec Yards: 50.5 (52.9 - 87, 115, 145, 53, 26), Receptions: 3.5 (3.6 - 5, 8, 6, 3, 1), Anytime TD: +200 (0.3 - 1, 0, 1, 0, 0)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. Scouting Report

Four Players That Could Make the Difference in 49ers vs. Eagles and Chargers vs. Patriots

• 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (at Eagles)

  • McCaffrey started the season more of a receiving target than a rushing threat, but is now as effective on the ground as he has been in recent years. After averaging 56.0 rushing yards in the first six games, he has improved to 78.7 since. And after scoring just one touchdown on the ground in that first stretch, compared to three receiving scores, McCaffrey scored nine rushing touchdowns in his last 11 games to just four through the air. He had just eight rushes for 23 yards against the Seahawks last week, but prior to that he rushed for 117 and 140 yards in back-to-back games.

  • Rush Yards: 59.5 (70.7 - 23, 140, 117, 73, 53), Carries: 18.5 (18.3 - 8, 23, 21, 22, 20), Anytime TD: -130 (1.0 - 0, 1, 2, 1, 1), Rec Yards: 45.5 (54.4 - 34, 41, 29, 14, 21)

  • PHI - L1 (6-4 L10) | Rush Yards Against: 124.4 (22nd), Total Yards Against: 314.2 (13th), Points Against: 19.1 (5th)

• Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (vs. 49ers)

  • Barkley didn’t surpass 100 rushing yards until his eighth game of the season but reached the mark twice in the final four games. In that span he averaged 100.0 yards, nearly 30 above his season average, and scored a touchdown in three of the four contests. Barkley’s increased productivity coincided with Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts slowing down a bit, as he averaged just 156.7 passing yards per game over his last three games of the regular season, though he did have six touchdowns and no interceptions in that span.

  • Rush Yards: 79.5 (71.3 - 68, 132, 78, 122, 56), Carries: 18.5 (17.5 - 19, 21, 22, 20, 13), Anytime TD: -135 (0.6 - 0, 1, 1, 1, 0)

  • SF - L1 (7-3 L10) | Rush Yards Against: 107.8 (11th), Total Yards Against: 340.2 (20th), Points Against: 21.8 (13th)

• LAC QB Justin Herbert (at Patriots)

  • Herbert seemed to get back in a rhythm in his last two games of the regular season (he didn’t play last week) as he threw for 300 yards against a hapless Cowboys’ defense before passing for 236 against the Texans’ top-ranked defense, 52 yards more than Houston averaged giving up per game. Herbert fractured his non-throwing hand in Week 13 and has been playing through the injury since.

  • Pass Yards: 225.5 (232.9 - 236, 300, 210, 139, 151), Pass Attempts: 29.5 (32.0 - 32, 29, 29, 26, 20, Pass TD: 1.5 (1.6 - 1, 2, 1, 1, 2), Rush Yards: 28.5 (31.1 - 37, 42, 0, 66, 8)

  • NE - W3 (9-1 L10) | Pass Yards Against: 193.5 (9th), Total Yards Against: 295.2 (8th), Points Against: 18.8 (4th)

• NE QB Drake Maye (vs. Chargers)

  • Maye started the season with 13-straight 200+ yard passing games (only one of which was sub-220), then threw under that mark in two of his final four — once because the Bills defense shut him down and the other because he was pulled after going 14-18 for 191 yards and a touchdown in an easy win over the Dolphins in the regular season finale. He was only shut out on the passing touchdown front in two games all year, though interceptions became more frequent after a nearly mistake-free start: Maye only had two interceptions in his first seven games but threw six in his final 10.

  • Pass Yards: 242.5 (258.5 - 191, 256, 380, 155, 282), Pass Attempts: 31.5 (28.9 - 18, 21, 44, 23, 31), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.8 - 1, 5, 2, 0, 2), Rush Yards: 24.5 (26.5 - 41, 22, 25, 43, 12)

  • LAC - L2 (7-3 L10) | Pass Yards Against: 179.9 (5th), Total Yards Against: 285.2 (5th), Points Against: 20.0 (9th)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

4. By the Numbers

Home Team Favored in Every NFL Playoff Game Today

NFL

• 49ers (12-5, 7-2 Away) vs. Eagles (11-6, 5-3 Home)

  • SF (+5.5, -104), PHI (-5.5, -118): 51% of the money and 63% of the bets are with SF

    • ATS | SF (road): 7-2, PHI (home): 4-4

  • Moneyline | SF +220, PHI -270: 55% of the money is with SF but 56% of the bets are with PHI

  • Total (44.5) | SF: 10-7 (25.7 ppg), PHI: 7-10 (22.3 ppg)

• Chargers (11-6, 5-3 Away) vs. Patriots (14-3, 6-3 Home)

  • LAC (+3.5, -110), NE (-3.5, -110): 62% of the money and 61% of the bets are with NE

    • ATS | LAC (road): 3-5, NE (home): 4-4-1

  • Moneyline | LAC +164, NE -196: 73% of the money and 79% of the bets are with NE

  • Total (45.5) | LAC: 7-10 (21.6 ppg), NE: 11-6 (28.8 ppg)

NBA

• Pelicans (9-3, 13-14 Away) vs. Magic (21-18, 12-6 Home)

  • NOP (+6, -110), ORL (-6, -110): 54% of the money is with NOP but 61% of the bets are with ORL

    • ATS | NOP (road): 8-9, ORL (home): 8-10

  • Total (234.5) | NOP: 21-19 (114.8 ppg), ORL: 19-20 (115.9 ppg)

• 76ers (21-15, 11-6 Away) vs. Raptors (23-16, 12-8 Home)

  • PHI (-3.5, -115), TOR (+3.5, -105): 81% of the money and 60% of the bets are with PHI

    • ATS | PHI (road): 13-4, TOR (home): 8-12

  • Total (223.5) | PHI: 18-18 (117.2 ppg), TOR: 15-24 (114.1 ppg)

• Knicks (24-14, 7-10 Away) vs. Trail Blazers (19-20, 10-9 Home)

  • NYK (-4.5, -112), POR (+4.5, -108): 79% of the money and 56% of the bets are with NYK

    • ATS | NYK (road): 4-13, POR (home): 12-7

  • Total (232.5) | NYK: 22-17 (119.4 ppg), POR: 20-19 (116.4 ppg)

• Bucks (17-21, 8-12 Away) vs. Nuggets (25-13, 10-6 Home)

  • MIL (-2, -113), DEN (+2, -108): 73% of the money and 59% of the bets are with MIL

    • ATS | MIL (road): 10-10, DEN (home): 9-7

  • Total (222.5) | MIL: 16-22 (113.1 ppg), DEN: 24-14 (123.1 ppg)

• Wizards (10-27, 4-14 Away) vs. Suns (23-15, 13-5 Home)

  • WAS (+14, -110), PHX (-14, -110): 56% of the money is with PHX but 54% of the bets are with WAS

    • ATS | WAS (road): 7-11, PHX (home): 14-4

  • Total (229.5) | WAS: 19-18 (113.3 ppg), PHX: 16-22 (114.7 ppg)

• Hawks (19-21, 12-10 Away) vs. Warriors (21-18, 13-5 Home)

  • ATL (+6.5, -114), GSW (-6.5, -106): 89% of the money and 53% of the bets are with ATL

    • ATS | ATL (road): 13-9, GSW (home): 10-8

  • Total (234.5) | ATL: 20-19 (118.2 ppg), GSW: 22-17 (115.5 ppg)

MCBB

• No. 16 Illinois (12-3, 3-1 Big Ten) vs. No. 19 Iowa (12-3, 2-2 Big Ten)

  • ILL (+1.5, -115), UI (-1.5, -105): 75% of the money and 56% of the bets are with ILL

    • ATS | ILL: 8-7, UI: 11-4

  • Total (143.5) | ILL: 4-11 (86.7 ppg), UI: 9-6 (79.8 ppg)

• Ohio State (11-4, 3-2 Big Ten) vs. Washington (9-6, 1-3 Big Ten)

  • OSU (+2.5, -115), WAS (-2.5, -105): 61% of the money and 86% of the bets are with OSU

    • ATS | OSU: 6-9, WAS: 8-7

  • Total (152.5) | OSU: 7-8 (83.7 ppg), WAS: 7-8 (81.7 ppg)

5. Overtime

In the News

• The new and unexpected star of the NFL coaching carousel is former Ravens coach John Harbaugh, who scrambled some teams’ plans. But the coach said he is going to limit interviews to just a few teams. In an interview with Fox Sports, Harbaugh said he would decide this weekend on the three or four teams he would talk to about their openings.

• Indiana has looked unstoppable in the College Football Playoff and starts as a 7.5-point favorite over Miami in next Monday’s National Championship game in Miami. If the Hoosiers win, they would be considered one of the most dominant champions in recent memory, possibly even better than the 2019 LSU squad.

• The former face of the Hawks franchise, Trae Young, was voluntarily sent to one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Wizards. Marc J. Spears talked to the four-time NBA All Star about leaving Atlanta, why Washington, and if he plans on executing his player option to stay in D.C. for at least one more season after this.

• CBS Sports graded 14 men’s college basketball coaches in their second year at their school. From 16-0 Vanderbilt’s Mark Byington’s A+ to Kentucky’s Mark Pope’s D, and everyone in between. Arkansas’s John Calipari? He got an A- because he “struck the right balance in roster-building, mixing elite freshmen with a ton of retention and just a splash of the portal.”

• The WNBA and the players union didn’t reach an agreement before the latest deadline after two previous extensions, meaning the current CBA is still in effect but the start of the season could be impacted if a new contract isn’t completed soon. The current CBA was implemented in January 2020 after the terms were completed about a month before, and a similar timeline would mean the start of free agency could have to be delayed. In a statement, the union said the WNBA has “remained committed to undervaluing player contributions, dismissing player concerns, and running out the clock.”

What to Watch (times ET)

• 9am: Portsmouth vs. Arsenal [FA Cup] on ESPN2

• 12pm: No. 16 Illinois vs. No. 19 Iowa [MCBB] on FOX

• 1pm: Bills vs. Jaguars on CBS

• 2pm: Barcelona vs. Real Madrid [Supercopa de España] on ABC (or Devils vs. Jets on NHL Network)

• 3pm: No. 2 Texas vs. No. 12 LSU [WCBB] on ESPN

• 4:30pm: 49ers vs. Eagles on FOX

• 8pm: Chargers vs. Patriots on NBC