In today’s newsletter…
1. Leading Off: Our Super Bowl Betting Guide comes out this week
2. Game of the Day: Undefeated No. 1 Arizona gets its toughest road test in two months
3. Scouting Report: Embiid is out again so Maxey should get more touches
4. By the Numbers: Cavs have NBA’s worst record ATS at home
5. Overtime: Brady’s rise from “pedestrian” to one of broadcasting’s best
1. Leading Off
The Seahawks open as 4.5-point favorites over the Patriots in Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. The NFC’s top seed is on a nine-game winning streak and after beating the Rams last night has won 13 of 14 games. New England, which unlike Seattle had to play in the Wild Card Round, hasn’t lost in six weeks and has an even more impressive 16 wins in 17 tries.
The Patriots beat the top-seeded Broncos is a game that started with great defense and ended with a snowstorm that made it impossible for either team to move the ball. New England’s entire strategy was to run as much clock as possible every time it had possession after starting the second half with a 9.5-minute drive and kicking a field goal to go up 10-7, which was the final score.
If the early afternoon game wasn’t the most entertaining way to get to the Super Bowl, the third matchup of the season between the Seahawks and Rams made up for it. The Seahawks came in with the NFL’s top defense in points allowed but went round for round with the Rams’ No. 1-ranked scoring offense.
The quarterback play was as good as it gets: MVP frontrunner Matthew Stafford was 22-35 for 374 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions for a 127.6 rating for the Rams, but Seattle’s Sam Darnold one-upped him with a 25-36 performance for 346 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 127.8 rating. After allowing a combined 58 points through three quarters, both defenses held the opposing offenses scoreless in the fourth in the 31-27 Seattle win.
Including the two conference championship matchups, eight of the 12 playoff games this postseason have been decided by four points or less. With the game set, Sportmoney is coming back for the Super Bowl. That’s right, the expert sports betting analysis you came to rely on will be available for the big game. Our Super Bowl guide will have best bets and player props to watch, along with the insights, trends, and stats you’re used to seeing here. It’ll come out on Thursday, but if you want early access take our poll below and we’ll add you to the list.
Chris Farley is taking the lead on our Super Bowl picks this year. He’s a professional bettor and two-time NFL Circa contest winner ($267k in prizes) who has won over 100 units in the NFL over the past four seasons. You might remember Chris as a regular writer for Sportmoney over the past two years, and he served as an analyst on VSiN and BetUS, as well as head of the betting department at The 33rdTeam. He offers his current sports betting picks and insights at farleybets.substack.com.
Remember to take our poll below if you want early access to the Sportmoney Super Bowl guide.
— Abe Rakov
2. Game of the Day
BYU’s Superstar Freshman Faces Biggest Test of Year in No. 1 Arizona, and Vice Versa
AJ Dybantsa | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images
Arizona’s 71-67 win at then-No. 3 UConn announced the Wildcats as national title contenders this season. Other than back-to-back wins over Auburn and Alabama in late November and early December, Arizona has cruised against mediocre competition week after week since. The Wildcats won’t have that luxury tonight. No. 13 BYU and its superstar freshman AJ Dybantsa host No. 1 Arizona two days after he scored a career-high 43 points.
BYU lost to that same UConn squad by two points four days before Arizona’s win but reeled off 13 straight victories after that, though only one was against a ranked opponent. While Dybantsa averages nearly 24 a night and BYU’s next two leading scorers put in about 18, Arizona has a lot more depth. The Wildcats have seven players averaging nine points per game or more, including five in double-figures, with freshman forward Koa Peat leading the way at 14.7
No. 1 Arizona (20-0, 7-0 Big 12) vs. No. 13 BYU (17-2, 5-1 Big 12)
9pm on ESPN
The Odds
Spread: ARI (-1.5, -106), BYU (+1.5, -114)
85% of the money and 80% of the bets are with ARI
ATS | ARI (road): 3-1, BYU (home): 4-5
Moneyline: ARI -125, BYU +104
Total (165.5): Over -110, Under -110
ARI: 11-9, BYU: 9-10
Head-to-Head
Arizona | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
Streak | W20 | W1 |
Last 10 | 10-0 | 9-1 |
vs. AP Top 25 | 5-0 | 1-2 |
Points/Game | 89.8 | 86.8 |
Opp Points/Game | 67.6 | 70.1 |
Rebounds/Game | 43.4 | 40.3 |
Opp Rebounds/Game | 29.9 | 33.3 |
Assists/Game | 18.6 | 15.2 |
Players to Watch
ARIZ F Koa Peat | Points: 14.5 (14.7 - 17, 13, 4, 24, 20), Reb: 6.5 (5.9 - 7, 6, 3, 10, 7)
ARIZ G Brayden Burries | Points: 13.5 (14.6 - 22, 12, 18, 6, 6)
BYU F AJ Dybantsa | Points: 24.5 (23.6 - 43, 13, 25, 20, 23), Reb: 5.5 (6.8 - 6, 3, 6, 6, 7)
BYU G Robert Wright III | Points: 18.5 (18.0 - 21, 28, 15, 23, 27)
*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)
3. Scouting Report
With Embiid Out Again After Hot Stretch, Maxey Should Be Called On to Score More
Tyrese Maxey | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
76ers Tyrese Maxey (at Hornets)
With Joel Embiid sitting out for injury management after scoring 30+ points four games in a row, more pressure will be on Maxey today. He scored under 30 points in five of his last six (and the one he went over was a double-overtime game), but a lot of that had to do with Embiid taking some of the load off of him. Maxey had an off shooting night (7-20) the last time these teams played, which was in the second game of the season, but still managed to put in 28 points and added six rebounds and nine assists.
Points: 30.5 (29.9 - 22, 36, 20, 29, 22), Reb: 3.5 (4.3 - 3, 2, 2, 4, 5), Ast: 6.5 (6.8 - 6, 10, 7, 8, 9)
CHA - W2 (5-5) | Points Allowed: 115.5 (16th), Reb Allowed: 39.9 (2nd), Ast Allowed: 27.6 (24th)
Bulls G Coby White (vs. Lakers)
White has scored 22+ in four straight for the Bulls, all of which were wins. He tied a season high with 27 points in a 9-16 shooting performance against the Clippers last Tuesday. The Bulls are 11-4 since mid-December and are up to ninth in the East, just 1.5 games out of avoiding the play-in. The Lakers are a very middling defensive team, but they’ve been better of late: After giving up 130+ in two games in a row, Los Angeles allowed 93, 107, 112 and 110. An opposing guard scored at least 22 points against the Lakers in all six of those matchups, though.
Points: 20.5 (18.8 - 22, 22, 27, 24, 17), Reb: 3.5 (3.5 - 1, 4, 2, 4, 4), Ast: 4.5 (4.7 - 7, 4, 6, 3, 4)
LAL - W1 (4-6) | Points Allowed: 116.2 (18th), Reb Allowed: 40.6 (3rd), Ast Allowed: 27.3 (20th)
No. 3 Coco Gauff (vs. No. 12 Elina Svitolina)
Gauff is coming off a three-set win over No. 19 Karolina Muchova, her second match in a row that went the distance. Svitolina upset No. 12 Mirra Andreeva in straight sets in the last round and has played the minimum number of sets so far in Australia. Gauff went 3-1 at the United Cup to start this season’s campaign, beating Iga Swiatek and Maria Sakkari, while Svitolina won a tune-up event in Auckland against an unchallenging field. Svitolina won the last time these two played at the Australian Open, but it was in 2021 when Gauff was just 16 years old. The American won the other two matchups, both in 2024 and both in three sets — with Svitolina winning the first each time.
Head-to-Head | 2024 U.S. Open: Gauff 3-6, 6-3, 6-3; 2024 Auckland: Gauff: 6-7 (4), 6-3, 6-3; 2021 Australian Open: Svitolina 6-4, 6-3
Potential Bets | Moneyline: Gauff -200, Svitolina +164; Total Sets 2.5: Over +136, Under -186; Gauff Game Handicap -3.5: -112
*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)
4. By the Numbers
Cavs Are NBA-Worst 7-19 ATS At Home, Louisville is 19th in NCAA in Scoring
Kenny Atkinson | Mike Watters-Imagn Images
NBA
Pacers (11-35, 3-19 Away) vs. Hawks (22-25, 8-13 Home)
IND (+5, -114), ATL (-5, -106): 53% of the money and 54% of the bets are with IND
ATS | IND (road): 9-13, ATL (home): 8-13
Total (232.5) | IND: 17-29 (110.1 ppg), ATL: 24-23 (117.4 ppg)
76ers (24-20, 12-7 Away) vs. Hornets (18-28, 8-13 Home)
PHI (+4.5, -110), CHA (-3.5, -110): 63% of the money and 74% of the bets are with PHI
ATS | PHI (road): 14-5, CHA (home): 11-10
Total (227.5) | PHI: 22-22 (116.6 ppg), CHA: 19-27 (116.0 ppg)
Magic (23-21, 9-11 Away) vs. Cavaliers (27-20, 15-11 Home)
ORL (+4.5, -110), CLE (-4.5, -110): 73% of the money and 59% of the bets are with CLE
ATS | ORL (road): 7-13, CLE (home): 7-19
Total (226.5) | ORL: 22-22 (115.4 ppg), CLE: 22-25 (119.1 ppg)
Trail Blazers (23-23, 10-12 Away) vs. Celtics (28-17, 13-7 Home)
POR (+8.5, -106), BOS (-8.5, -114): 53% of the money is with BOS but 61% of the bets are with POR
ATS | POR (road): 11-11, BOS (home): 10-10
Total (223.5) | POR: 23-23 (116.1 ppg), BOS: 19-26 (116.9 ppg)
Lakers (27-17, 15-9 Away) vs. Bulls (23-22, 15-9 Home)
LAL (-1.5, -108), CHI (+1.5, -112): 64% of the money and 66% of the bets are with LAL
ATS | LAL (road): 13-11, CHI (home): 14-10
Total (236.5) | LAL: 25-19 (116.0 ppg), CHI: 20-25 (117.9 ppg)
Warriors (25-21, 8-14 Away) vs. Timberwolves (27-18, 15-7 Home)
GSW (+7.5, -110), MIN (-7.5, -110): The money is 50/50 but 71% of the bets are with GSW
ATS | GSW (road): 8-14, MIN (home): 9-13
Total (232.5) | GSW: 27-19 (116.8 ppg), MIN: 22-23 (120.0 ppg)
MCBB
No. 23 Louisville (14-5, 4-3 ACC) vs. No. 5 Duke (18-1, 7-0 ACC)
LOU (+7.5, -110), DUK (-7.5, -110): 69% of the money and 67% of the bets are with DUK
ATS | LOU (road): 2-3, DUK (home): 4-5
Total (157.5) | LOU: 7-12 (87.8 ppg), DUK: 7-12 (85.7 ppg)
Penn State (9-10, 0-8 Big Ten) vs. Ohio State (13-6, 5-4 Big Ten)
PSU (+12.5, -102), OSU (-12.5, -120): 55% of the money is with PSU but 51% of the bets are with OSU
ATS | PSU (road): 2-2, OSU (home): 4-6-1
Total (154.5) | PSU: 10-9 (76.5 ppg), OSU: 9-10 (82.1 ppg)
NHL
Islanders (27-19-5, 13-10-3 Away) vs. Flyers (24-17-9, 12-8-5 Home)
NYI (+1.5, -260), PHI (-1.5, +205): 91% of the money and 71% of the bets are with NYI
ATS | NYI (road): 16-10, PHI (home): 13-12
Moneyline | NYI -104, PHI -115: 59% of the money is with NYI but 60% of the bets are with PHI
Total (5.5) | NYI: 24-27 (2.78 gpg), PHI: 30-20 (2.98 gpg)
Bruins (30-20-2, 11-12-1 Away) vs. Rangers (21-25-6, 5-13-4 Home)
BOS (-1.5, +186), NYR (+1.5, -235): 97% of the money and 66% of the bets are with BOS
ATS | BOS (road): 15-9, NYR (home): 6-16
Moneyline | BOS -120, NYR +100: 87% of the money and 77% of the bets are with BOS
Total (6.5) | BOS: 29-23 (3.31 gpg), NYR: 23-29 (2.63 gpg)
5. Overtime
In the News
Yesterday’s NFC Championship game was Tom Brady’s last broadcast of a season in which he transformed into one of football’s best television voices. The Athletic’s Andrew Marchand documented Brady’s rise from a “pedestrian” first year in the booth to “the top of the analysts’ game, where he is now rightly mentioned among the best in the business.” Brady is in the middle of a 10-year, $375 million contract, and according to Marchand, he treated this season more like he was a quarterback than a pundit.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ja Morant, who are both potential trade targets, are expected to be out through the February 5th deadline. The Grizzlies were widely expected to move Morant this season, but a difficult job was made even harder because of the injury. The Bucks, on the other hand, were seen just as much as potential buyers as sellers, with it being unclear if they’d trade their superstar or try once again to build around him.
While most of the pre-Olympic hockey talk has centered around potential issues with the behind-schedule arena, once the competition starts it’ll feature the best players in the world in one place for the first time since the 2014 Games. NHL owners decided not to allow players to compete in 2018 and 2022, meaning most of the men competing at the highest level of hockey have never had a chance to play for gold. According to the Associated Press, there are just 12 NHL players on Olympic rosters who competed in the 2014 Games in Russia.
A week after Charles Bediako scored four points for the G League’s Motor City Cruise, he suited up for the University of Alabama on Saturday and scored 13 points. The 23-year-old center last played for the Crimson Tide nearly three years ago but wasn’t selected in the NBA Draft and has competed professionally under developmental contracts since. But a Tuscaloosa judge allowed him to return to college and blocked the NCAA from punishing Alabama for it. “I think we can win it all. I’m just excited, just as much as they are,” Bediako said.
Colorado coach Deion Sanders is implementing a system of fines for his players where he’ll take NIL money for transgressions such as missing practice, being late to treatment, or “public/social media misconduct.” The fines range from $500 to $5,000. Sanders brought in 41 new players from the transfer portal alone after a disappointing 3-9 season in Boulder.
What to Watch (times ET)
3pm: Everton vs. Leeds on USA
7pm: Magic vs. Cavaliers on Peacock (or No. 23 Louisville vs. No. 5 Duke [MCBB] on ESPN or Bruins vs. Rangers on NHL Network)
8pm: Trail Blazers vs. Celtics on Peacock
9pm: No. 1 Arizonan vs. No. 13 BYU [MCBB] on ESPN
9:30pm: Warriors vs. Timberwolves on Peacock
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