Covering Today's MLB Action + Thursday Night Football

In today’s newsletter…

Each Wednesday, Sportmoney will give you a guide to the upcoming NFL slate — and today we’re featuring projected stats for three key offensive players on every team. Check it out on our website. And if you’re still working on your fantasy football lineup for the weekend, here are a few insights from NFL Next Gen Stats that could help:

In today’s newsletter, Chris is covering tomorrow’s Bills vs. Dolphins game and college football action, Craig has today’s MLB matchups, and Jack is pulling double duty with both MLB and golf.

- Abe Rakov

Bills Passing D is Vulnerable with Milano on the IR

By Chris Farley

Bills +2.5 (-105 at FanDuel, Bookmaker and Bovada)
It would be very easy to like the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. The Bills came real close to losing in a Week 1 contest where they were favored by 6.5 points, and now they have the tall-task of traveling down to South Florida against a squad that's been damn-near unstoppable in the early season with Mike McDaniel as their coach. Still, this is a divisional matchup, and except for a few chunk plays, the Dolphins' offense didn't look as crisp as it usually does in their opener. Not to mention, the best player on the field is the QB of the Buffalo Bills.

Bills vs. Dolphins 2nd half over 24.5 points (+105 at Bookmaker)
The total has dropped a few points for several reasons. First, Hurricane Francine was a looming threat, but all weather indicates that Miami will be dry with low-winds on Thursday night. The other reason why it's dropped is because there's a consensus-perception that both teams will want to run the ball, building on evidence from Week 1. We could care less. At a certain point, this game will open up, and it's likely to be later in the contest after one team takes a commanding lead. Three out of their last five battles have eclipsed 60 points.

Jaylen Waddle over 63.5 yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Without Matt Milano, the Bills allowed 7 touchdowns and got 0 interceptions last season when covering the middle-third of the field. When Milano was in, the difference was staggering: 5 interceptions, 0 touchdowns. According to Pro Football Focus, no wide-receiver had a higher-grade on crossing routes than Jaylen Waddle in 2023, and we saw yet another explosive crossing route, a 63-yarder to be exact, that made all the difference when his team was down 10 points last Sunday. We love another high-octane game for the former Alabama star.

Josh Allen over 37.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings and Bovada)
While the Bills escaped Week 1 after falling to a 17-3 deficit, no one can deny how it was accomplished. Josh Allen continues to be almost solely responsible for the success of the Bills' offense, in a way that's beyond most starting QBs. That resulted in 39 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns (he threw for 2 as well) last Sunday. We expect more of the same on Thursday. There's a strong probability that Miami, a program that's been fantastic at home under McDaniel (10-5 ATS as home favorites), will play with an early lead, which likely means Allen will start playing backyard football.

Eugenio Suarez is Batting .400 with a 1.480 OPS Against Lefties Over the Last 15 days

By Jack Dougherty

Braves vs. Nationals over 8 runs (-102 at DraftKings)
The Braves snapped out of their offensive funk on Tuesday night with 15 hits and 12 runs against the Nationals, and they should be able to keep the momentum rolling in this matchup. Jake Irvin has been dreadful of late with 28 hits, 19 earned runs and nine walks over his last four starts. Max Fried has been much better in the same span, but the Nats might not need to chip in much for this over to cash. 

Brewers team total under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-130 at DraftKings)
The Brewers haven’t had much success at the plate lately. Milwaukee is averaging only 2.8 runs over its last six games, and it’s batting just .194 with a 92 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last two weeks. This isn’t the lefty you want to see when you’re struggling. Blake Snell has given up one or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts and six of his last eight, and current Brewers hitters have a .185 xBA and a 36.2% strikeout rate in 47 plate appearances against him. 

Bobby Miller over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+100 at DraftKings)
Happy fade Bobby Miller Day to all who celebrate. The Dodgers right-hander ranks in the first percentile in xERA (6.64) and the second percentile in barrel rate (12.2%) and hard-hit rate (48.3%). He’s surrendered at least three earned runs in five straight starts and seven of his last eight appearances. Now he has to face a Cubs lineup that ranks second in OPS (.831) and wRC+ (134) against righties over the last three weeks. 

Eugenio Suarez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+115 at DraftKings)
Eugenio Suarez is on fire against left-handed pitching, as he’s batting .400 with a 1.480 OPS against southpaws over the last 15 days. The Diamondbacks slugger also leads the team in hits (17), runs (15) and home runs (six) in that span. The good news for Suarez is he gets to face another lefty on Wednesday night in Rangers starter Cody Bradford. Bradford throws his 4-seam fastball 52.3% of the time, so a red-hot Suarez should be able to jump on one. 

Texas State Looks to Slow ASU RB Coming Off 262-Yard Performance

By Chris Farley

(Thursday Game)

Texas State +2 (-109 at Bookmaker)
This is one of the biggest games in Texas State's history. On ESPN, the Bobcats will host Arizona State, a program that's not only in one of the Power Four conferences, but one that's a shocking 2-0. After two 3-9 seasons, Arizona State started 2024 with a surprising and impressive 48-7 victory at Wyoming. Their second game wasn't as inspiring, but they leaned on Cam Skattebo's 262 rushing yards to a victory. We don't think Texas State will let that happen. With supreme motivation, a raucous crowd and a rush-defense that's allowing just 82 yards per game (28th), this is the Bobcats' game to lose.

Arizona State Texas State under 60 points (-109 at Bookmaker)
Building off our interest in Texas State, this game beckons defense. Both teams have managed to produce high scores in their two wins this season, reaching 30+ in each contest. Regression looms, and the matchup agrees. Texas State's offensive strength is the pass game, but that's also the strength of the Arizona State defense (47th ranked, 173 yards per game). And we've said how good Texas State is against the run (see above). This also has a rare "big-game-feel" between two teams that should be highly motivated; nerves are a thing, and it creates a great recipe for low scores.

Rockies’ Road Woes on Offense Could be an Opportunity for Tigers

By Craig Williams

Guardians -1.5 (-132 at FanDuel)
The White Sox are 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 contests, including the first two games of this series. They’re also an abysmal 12-46 in day games, and they’re averaging three runs per game over their last nine, so we’re not bullish on them avoiding a sweep — or even playing competitively. Guardians lefty Matthew Boyd has been sharp, allowing three earned runs and 10 hits across his last 18 innings.

Blue Jays under 3.5 runs (+102 at FanDuel)
Southpaw Sean Manaea is taking the hill for the Mets in today’s rubber match, and he enters his start in good form. He has pitched into the seventh inning while allowing three or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts. The Blue Jays struggle against left-handed pitching — last night’s win notwithstanding — with a .666 OPS. Finally, we’re leaning into the Mets’ resilience following losses — they’ve come back with a win after their last seven defeats.

Tigers -1.5 (+132 at FanDuel)
The Rockies have the game’s worst road run-differential (-184) — 16 runs worse than the Chicago White Sox. Offense is a problem for the Rockies, particularly away from Coors Field, where they score over 1.5 runs fewer per game. They’re also struggling of late, averaging 1.9 runs over their last eight games and going 3-5 ATS over that span. Meanwhile, Tigers starter Casey Mize enters his start with favorable home splits.

Royals vs. Yankees under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-120 at DraftKings)
We’ll start with the Yankees’ struggles against left-handed pitching — their OPS is 72 points lower against southpaws. And Cole Ragans isn’t just any lefty — he’s produced a 3.23 ERA and .191 BAA over his last 39 innings. Luis Gil is coming off of a six-inning, one-hit performance against the Cubs, and he’ll toe the rubber against a Royals team that is averaging 3.2 runs per game in September (and hitting worse on the road).

Angels +1.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
We like Jack Kochanowicz, the Angels’ towering, hard-throwing, sinker-baller. He’s not going to miss many bats, but he has found success inducing groundball contact at a 58% clip across his last five starts. Meanwhile, the Twins have been susceptible against the sinker in September. Additionally, the Angels and Twins have been on different ends of the offensive spectrum over the same span, providing optimism the Angels can keep things close against the Twins’ struggling Zebby Matthews.

Padres vs. Mariners under 7 runs (-118 at DraftKings)
It’s difficult not to really like the under given the pitching matchup — Michael King vs. Bryan Woo — and the Mariners’ dominance from the mound at home. Woo enters play with a 1.50 ERA at T-Mobile Park while King has been sharp for an extended period of time. The Padres are middle of the pack in runs scored since the start of September, and the Mariners, recent offensive success notwithstanding, produce far less offense at home. 

Astros -1.5 (-110 at ESPN BET)
The pitching matchup between Hunter Brown and Joey Estes is surprisingly balanced on paper. Estes has produced a 3.63 ERA and 0.91 WHIP across his last 39.2 innings. Brown, however, has been even better over a similar span of time, producing a 1.22 ERA and 0.86 WHIP across his last 37 frames. On a macro level, the Astros rank top-10 in runs scored and bullpen ERA in September, compared to the Athletics, who rank bottom-10 in both categories.

Struggling Max Homa Has Seen a lot of Success at Silverado

By Jack Dougherty

Matt Kuchar top-30 finish (+125 at DraftKings)
The PGA Tour returns this week with the Procore Championship from Silverado Resort and Spa, a shorter golf course at 7,123 yards that allows older plodders to compete. Stewart Cink won this tournament in 2021, and Matt Kuchar has a great track record here. In three starts at Silverado, Kuchar has finished T36, T12 and T7. The 46-year-old also finished the 2024 season strong with three top-30 finishes in his last four starts. 

Rico Hoey top-20 finish (+240 at FanDuel)
Since Silverado is a shorter course with four gettable par 5s, taking advantage of those easy holes is going to be crucial this week. Rico Hoey can do just that, as he ranked fifth on the PGA Tour last season in par 5 scoring average (4.47). Hoey was terrible for most of the season because he couldn’t make a putt, but he found something a few months ago and gained strokes from putting in six of his last seven starts. If the putter stays hot, Hoey could contend for a win this week. 

Round 1 matchup: Max Homa > Maverick McNealy (+110 at FanDuel)
There’s no way to sugarcoat it: Max Homa is playing horrendous golf. Since mid-June, the American has missed the cut at the U.S. Open, finished dead last at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and finished T61 in a 70-man field at the Travelers Championship. His swing is lost right now, but this course can help him find it. In his last three starts at Silverado, Homa has two wins and a T7 finish. The California native always plays well in his home state, and Maverick McNealy has finished better than T52 just once in six starts at this course.

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