Look for Advantages on Offense in Week 2

In today’s newsletter…

Baker Mayfield’s 2023 Doesn’t Look Like a Fluke Season

By Chris Farley

Giants vs. Commanders over 43.5 points (-105 at Bovada)
The Giants and Commanders didn’t have the Week 1 experiences they wanted, but there’s plenty of reason to like their offenses this Sunday. New York made Sam Darnold look like Joe Montana at the Meadowlands and their lauded defensive line produced just one sack. On the other end, Baker Mayfield sliced and diced the Washington defense for four straight quarters. Jayden Daniels is a special athlete who showed great poise in his first start, and Daniel Jones is dying for better results after getting mauled by the New York media all week. Points should be coming.

Lions vs. Bucs over 51.5 points (-105 at Bookmaker)
The Buccaneers probably aren’t as good as they looked in Week 1. Regardless, Baker Mayfield sure looks comfortable with Tampa. The Bucs’ ascent last year might not have been a fluke, and alphas like Mike Evans are keeping the party going. Tampa Bay‘s defense was less impressive as last week's game went on. Lions’ home games were explosive last season, 7-3 ATS to the over. While the Lions’ defense capitulated against Matthew Stafford in the second half last week, their offense eventually caught rhythm and they were unstoppable in overtime. This could go into the 60s. 

Lions vs. Giants 6-point teaser (DET -1.5, NYG +8. -120 at DraftKings)
For whatever reason, the Giants own the Commanders. They’re 10-4 against Washington since 2017, and they’ve won their last three battles. Hell, Daniel Jones even had some steady, professional performances in there, too. New York will be highly motivated to look better after a pitiful Week 1. Tampa Bay looked good in Week 1, but that was at home against a below-average program. Detroit has become one of the toughest places to get a win, that is, unless you’re the Lions (8-2 in 2023). Dan Campbell’s team gained momentum in OT, and we love that for Sunday.

Jets -3.5 (-110 at BetOnline and Bovada)
Social media has been going nuts over the Jets demise last Monday night, but nothing was surprising about the way it went. San Francisco has a proven culture, one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, they were at home, and it was Aaron Rodgers’ first full game as a Jet. That’s an expected loss for 95% of the league. The Titans, on the other hand, outplayed a Bears outfit that didn’t look ready for the moment, and they still found a way to lose. Will Levis and his offense are at a major disadvantage against an angry New York Jets defense, and Aaron can do the rest.

Vikings +5 (-110 at BetOnline and Bovada)
There are a few issues with this number. First, the Vikings beat the 49ers straight-up last season in a similar situation, at a scheduling advantage against last year's NFC Champions. Minnesota dominated the Giants on the road last Sunday, meaning they're most likely an average team. An average team should not be getting this many points against the Niners, especially since they're on a short week with a road game at LAR following. Sam Darnold looked at his best in Week 1. Ironically, his experience in Santa Clara might have significantly contributed to his growth. What a spot for him to show it.

Chiefs -5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
This is a classic "numbers vs. teams" situation. Casual bettors will briefly look at these programs and see no reason to bet on Cincinnati. They looked lost in Week 1, ultimately embarrassed by a team oddsmakers predicted they'd dominate. Meanwhile, the Chiefs looked better than ever, out-pacing a hungry Baltimore team in the season opener. Many sharp bettors will simply wager on the Bengals out of principle. The spread opened at -3, and they invest against inflation. We cannot follow. Call us squares, but the early-season Bengals aren't ready for this clash, not in KC after Andy Reid's had 10 days to prepare.

Labar: Expecting the Unexpected for the 2024 MLB Postseason

In every sport when the postseason comes around, we prepare for the end of season injuries, the upsets, the heartbreak and the surprises. As the MLB regular season dwindles down, we’re seeing late pushes and identifying teams that have climbed back up to the top hoping to ride into the playoffs on that high. It’s all about who’s hot and who’s not. Or is it?

As somebody who has covered several Stanley Cup Playoffs, there’s a “the regular season doesn’t matter” mindset once we get to that time of year in the NHL season. Could we argue it’s the same for MLB? Look, this is my first time being a part of an MLB postseason, so I’ve been comparing, contrasting, watching and preparing for what to expect.

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

Guardians Fighting for Best Record in AL, Face Hot Pitcher

By Craig Williams

Mets +1.5 (-155 at DraftKings)
We’re going to accept a healthy dose of juice in this spot, but we expect the Mets to be competitive as road dogs. The Mets enter play 8-2 over their last 10, as do the Phillies, who are sending Aaron Nola to the hill against Jose Quintana. The pitching matchup suggests advantage Phils, but Nola is allowing a .301 opponents’ average, 1.48 WHIP, and 35.4% hard hit rate over his last 40.2 frames. 

Red Sox over 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-140 at DraftKings)
Clarke Schmidt is making his second start after a lengthy absence. He tossed 4.2 shutout innings on 75 pitches, but we’re considering the chances of him being less sharp in start No. 2. The Red Sox have a better record, score more runs, and have produced a significantly better run differential on the road. We’re not looking for the Red Sox to win, but we like them to put a couple of runs on the board early.

Cleveland -0.5 first 5 innings (-118 at FanDuel)
The Guardians are among the best home teams in the American League and vying for the AL’s No. 1 seed. The Rays, meanwhile, are essentially — if not officially — eliminated from postseason contention. Rays starter Zack Littell has produced a 1.99 ERA over his last six starts, but his 4.47 FIP suggests he’s run into good fortune. More than stats though, we like where the Guardians are as a whole right now, and expect them to be more locked in on a tangible goal.

Twins -1.5 (-102 at DraftKings)
Twins starter Bailey Ober has been lights out over his last 14 starts, producing a 2.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and .167 BAA. That ERA drops to 1.88 if you remove his start against the Braves (2 IP, 9 ER). The Twins are 9-5 overall in his last 14 turns, and they covered in seven of those nine wins. The Reds are not hitting particularly well at the moment, averaging 3.2 runs per game since the start of September.

Athletics vs. White Sox under 2.5 runs first 3 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
It’s Garrett Crochet day on the South Side, but the last time he threw more than four innings was June 30. And despite rough numbers over his last 11 starts, he has continued to demonstrate an ability to dominate opposing lineups. The Athletics are certainly vulnerable in this spot, as they enter play with a .664 OPS against power pitchers. The White Sox, for their part, have scored the second-fewest runs in September.

Jacob deGrom under 6.5 strikeouts (-125 at FanDuel)
It’s been over 500 days since Jacob deGrom made a big league start, so we’re naturally keeping our expectations modest. It’s deGrom’s second Tommy John operation, which is concerning on its own before considering that he’s 36 years old. But for the specific purposes of the under in this spot, we’re hesitant to bank on a degree sharpness necessary for seven punchouts; and we’re hard selling the idea of deGrom delivering length tonight.

Astros over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-105 at DraftKings)
The Astros are scoring 5.3 runs per game in September, and playing better on the road (36-36, +12 run differential) than the Angels are playing at home (30-42, -70). Angels starter Sam Aldegheri enters his third career start with a 2.45 ERA, but 4.45 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. Similar to our reasoning for a previous pick, the Astros are in the thick of a playoff race while the Angels are mathematically eliminated, suggesting a sharper focus, in theory at least.

Mizzou Looks Like it Can be an Offensive Juggernaut this Season

By Jack Dougherty

Arizona +7 (-105 at DraftKings)
Let’s begin on Friday night with a Big 12 matchup that doesn’t actually count as a Big 12 matchup (still weird, we know). Arizona features one of the best quarterback-wide receiver duos in college football. Noah Fifita has thrown for 595 yards and five touchdowns through two games, and Tetairoa McMillan has accounted for 315 of those yards and four of those scores. Kansas State has struggled to defend the pass early in the season, so the Wildcats will need to air it out themselves and put up a big number to cover this spread. We’re not sure Avery Johnson can do that. 

Missouri team total over 35.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
Missouri cruised past Murray State and Buffalo by a combined score of 89-0, and they didn’t even open up the offense to prove how explosive it can be. Theo Wease and Luther Burden, Missouri’s star wide receivers, have both played fewer than 45% of the team’s snaps through two games. This offense has another gear under Brady Cook, and it’s going to showcase that against an overrated Boston College team that’s only ranked because it knocked off Florida State. 

Theo Wease 80+ receiving yards (+255 at DraftKings)
Speaking of Wease, he should be in for a big receiving day now that he finally should get to play a full game. The Oklahoma transfer already has 16 catches for 179 yards this season, and he’s played only 44% of the team’s offensive snaps. Boston College has played two teams in Florida State and Duquesne that couldn’t test the secondary through the air, but Wease and Missouri are a different animal.

Kentucky team total under 6.5 points first half (-118 at FanDuel)
Woof. What in the world was that, Kentucky? The Wildcats got smoked by South Carolina 31-6 last week and displayed an inept passing offense. Brock Vandagriff was an abysmal 3/10 for 30 (yes, 30) yards and an interception in the game. Now Kentucky has to go up against Georgia’s vaunted defense. How’s that gonna go? The Wildcats might not even get in field goal range in the first half. 

Air Force +16.5 (-109 at DraftKings)
There’s nothing we love more in college football than service academies getting points, and this is a big number. Air Force and other service academies run the triple-option and play ball control to keep the score low, so it’s hard for opposing teams to blow them out with fewer offensive possessions. The way to beat the Falcons is through the air, but Baylor quarterback Dequan Finn hasn’t proven he can do that against decent competition. 

West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh over 63.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
The Backyard Brawl screams hard-hitting, low-scoring, old-school football, but that’s not the way these two teams like to play. West Virginia was shut down by Penn State in Week 1, but Pittsburgh’s defense doesn’t pose nearly the same threat to Garrett Greene, C.J. Donaldson and Jahiem White. Eli Holstein and Desmond Reid have looked great for the Panthers, and they should have a field day against West Virginia’s weak linebackers and secondary. 

Georgia State +10.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Vanderbilt is getting too much credit with this spread. The Commodores upset Virginia Tech and smoked Alcorn State to start the season, but VT is much worse than everyone thought heading into the year, and Alcorn State doesn’t have a functional offense. We love Diego Pavia as much as anyone, but Christian Veilleux played for Penn State and Pitt before transferring to Georgia State. He can put up points in this matchup.

West Ham is Playing Better than its Early Record Shows

By Sam Farley

Manchester United to win (-135 at FanDuel)
There’s no denying that Man Utd have been bad this season, with just one win in three, but a road trip to Southampton is the perfect chance to get back to winning ways. Southampton are one of two teams to not even pick up a point yet and have scored just once, conceding five, in three games.

West Ham to win (+190 at DraftKings)
This all-London matchup sees Fulham host West Ham at Craven Cottage. Fulham entered the weekend one spot higher in the Premier League table than West Ham, but this Hammers team are better than their three points suggest. Their two defeats came to Man City and Aston Villa, in a game which they were unlucky to lose. They’re a big price at +190 given the quality they have in attacking positions.

Mohamed Salah to score (-111 at Bet365)
Liverpool have been very impressive under new manager Arne Slot, and we’re arguably seeing the best Mohamed Salah in a couple of seasons. He’s reborn under his new manager and has three goals and three assists already. He’s a key part of this attack and has a great chance of scoring against Nottingham Forest. Don’t forget: He takes penalties too!

Chelsea to win (+105 at DraftKings)
Bournemouth haven’t lost yet in the Premier League this season, but don’t let that put you off backing Chelsea to win. There are goals galore with this Chelsea team, and they should be able to put Bournemouth away. The likes of Nicolas Jackson, Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke are all in-form and should cause the hosts serious problems.

(Sunday Matches)

Arsenal to win (+133 at BetRivers)
The North London Derby is without doubt the most exciting game this weekend. It’s a result that Arsenal have had the better of in recent years, with three wins in their last four meetings. You’d need to go back to May 2022 for the last time Spurs won, and given the quality Arsenal have in defense, they should be able to win here. They had the best defensive record in the league last year and have allowed just one goal so far this term.

Kai Havertz to score or assist (+130 at Bet365)
After a shaky start to his Arsenal career, we’ve seen Kai Havertz show why Mikel Arteta was so keen to bring him to the club. He’s tall, quick and does a great job in linking up the team’s attacking play. He’s averaged a goal or assist in every game this season, with two goals and an assist.

Destiny Udogie to be booked (+210 at Bet365)
The Italian leftback showed last year why he’s one of the best in the league, but at times he could be rash — picking up five yellow cards and a red in the Premier League. Now he’s in a one-on-one battle against Bukayo Saka, and he’s a big price to get a card against one of the league’s best teams.

Newcastle to win (+110 at FanDuel)
Wolves have drawn one game but lost their other two in the Premier League. To make it worse, they’ve given up nine goals, an average of three per game (the second-highest in the league). That’s bad news as they welcome Newcastle to Molineux. Newcastle have Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon in their attack, both players who should be able to tear Wolves apart.

Joao Gomes pver 2.5 fouls committed (+125 at Bet365)
The Wolves midfielder is tied for the most fouls committed in the Premier League so far this season, with 10 fouls in just three games. He’s been at the club for a couple of seasons now but has consistently been a liability in terms of giving up fouls, a trend he should well continue here.

Wolves first team booked (-150 at Bet365)
We’re also looking at Wolves being the team to get shown the first card. They already play like a team in trouble and will need to do their best to stop Newcastle’s attack. That could be a problem given that Newcastle have the two most fouled players in the league in Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon. 

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