In today’s newsletter…
Leading Off: Week 2 in the NFL
NFL: Dallas Goedert ranked second on Eagles last season with 10 red-zone targets inside the 20
MLB: Twins’ Pablo Lopez has a 1.12 ERA and a 5-0 record since August 12
Overtime: Texas moves to No. 1 in AP Poll
The Chiefs beat the Bengals on a field goal as time expired, the Saints blew out the Cowboys and the Ravens fell to 0-2 after a home loss to Raiders. Here are some Week 2 highlights, courtesy of NFL Next Gen Stats:
Joe Burrow faced man coverage on 42% of his dropbacks, completing just 8 of 15 passes for 84 yards. Without Tee Higgins in the lineup to start the season, Burrow has faced man coverage on 40% of his dropbacks, averaging a 33.3% success rate against man coverage compared to a 48.9% success rate against zone coverage.
Brock Purdy was sacked 4 times and completed 10 of 15 passes for 91 yards and an interception against the Vikings blitz. The Vikings blitzed Purdy on 45.5% of his dropbacks after blitzing on just 22.4% of dropbacks in Week 1 against the Giants.
Joey Porter Jr. lined up across from Courtland Sutton on 23 of his 35 routes (65.7%), holding Sutton to just 1 reception for 26 yards on a single target as the nearest defender in coverage. This was Porter’s 6th game of his career shadowing a receiver on 65% or more of their routes.
James Conner totaled 122 rushing yards and a touchdown on 21 carries (+27 rushing yards over expected) in the Cardinals win over the Rams. Conner’s +27 RYOE is his 5th-most in a game since joining the Cardinals in 2021.
Trevor Lawrence struggled against the Browns defense in Week 2, generating his lowest CPOE (-11.2%) in a game since Week 2, 2023 against the Chiefs. Lawrence completed just 8 of 15 attempts for 49 yards (-24.2% CPOE). After finishing 2nd in the NFL with 1,922 passing yards on quick attempts in 2023, Lawrence has averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt on quick passes in 2024.
In today’s newsletter, Jack is covering Monday Night Football (Falcons vs. Eagles) and Craig has today’s MLB action.
- Abe Rakov
Cousins has Better Matchup in Week 2 Against Questionable Eagles Secondary, D-Line
Kirk Cousins | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
By Jack Dougherty
Falcons +5.5 (-105 at Bet365)
Sports bettors will be hesitant to back the Falcons after watching Kirk Cousins struggle in Week 1, but this is a much better matchup for him. Cousins had trouble escaping pressure and throwing through a busy pocket coming off his Achilles injury, but the Eagles don’t have a T.J. Watt to cause havoc in the backfield. Atlanta’s offensive line can give Cousins more time to throw against Philadelphia’s less impressive defensive front, so the Falcons should have more success moving the ball. Without A.J. Brown in the lineup for the Eagles, it will be tough for them to win by margin.
Dallas Goedert to score a touchdown (+210 at DraftKings)
Speaking of Brown, the Eagles offense is going to look much different without him on the field. DeVonta Smith will likely take over as Jalen Hurts’ No. 1 option in the passing game, but Dallas Goedert might see the biggest increase in his workload. Goedert ranked second on the team last season with 10 red-zone targets and three receiving touchdowns inside the 20, and that was with him missing three games in the middle of the season.
Drake London 60+ receiving yards (+100 at DraftKings)
This is a good buy-low spot on London after the Pittsburgh Steelers held him to just two catches for 15 yards in Week 1. Mike Tomlin had all offseason to put together a defensive game plan to stop Atlanta’s best pass-catcher, and Cousins didn’t have any time to find London down the field with Watt blowing up the pocket on seemingly every passing down. As long as the offensive line gives Cousins more time to throw, London should be able to find space down the field against this questionable Eagles secondary. London played every single offensive snap in Week 1, and he’ll be busy again on MNF.
Jalen Hurts under 40.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)
Hurts simply doesn’t have the same acceleration and speed he used to. The QB rushed for 33 yards on 13 attempts against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, and he finished last season by going under 40.5 rushing yards in six of his last seven games. In fact, Hurts went over this line only four times in his 18 starts last year.
Yamamoto is Back and Could Pitch Longer Against Braves
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
By Craig Williams
Twins vs. Guardians under 7.5 runs (-104 at FanDuel)
Pablo Lopez has been dominant since August 12, posting a 1.12 ERA and 2.55 FIP with a 5-0 record over that span. Matthew Boyd, meanwhile, has allowed only one earned run in five of six starts for the Guardians. While the Twins have been balanced against right- and left-handed pitching, the Guardians have performed worse against right-handers this season. Neither offense, however, has been prolific since the calendar flipped to September.
Nationals under 2.5 runs first 7 innings (-140 at DraftKings)
Sean Manaea is playing “stopper” for the Mets tonight. He’s pitched beyond the sixth inning in eight of his last nine starts, while posting a 2.64 ERA, 3.04 FIP, and holding opponents to a .158 BA and .507 OPS over that span. The Nationals have not played particularly well of late, three-game win streak against the Marlins notwithstanding, and they have a .673 OPS versus lefties.
Sean Manaea over 18.5 outs (+104 at FanDuel)
Manaea is pitching very well of late, and that includes working deep into games. He’s recorded at least 20 outs in eight of his last nine, and has demonstrated the ability to work beyond 100 pitches, something he’s done four times over this span. Statistically, Manaea is pitching better on the road, posting a 2.77 ERA and limiting opponents to a .200 batting average. Meanwhile, the Nationals have a .299 wOBA and are averaging 3.8 runs per game in September.
Dodgers -0.5 first 5 innings (+108 at FanDuel)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto looked stellar in his return from a lengthy absence, tossing four shutout innings, and striking out eight Cubs on 59 pitches. He may not be as efficient against the Braves, but he’ll likely have a longer leash. Braves starter Max Fried is no walk in the park, but the Braves are 2-4 across his last six starts. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have a .783 OPS against southpaws.
Royals -0.5 first 5 innings (+100 at DraftKings)
We’re leaning into Seth Lugo’s dominant form over his last three starts. He’s allowed two earned runs over his last 21 innings, shutting down the Astros, Guardians, and Yankees in consecutive starts. He posted a 1.89 FIP and limited those opponents to a .508 OPS. The Tigers are playing well of late, but the Royals can make that same claim, and they’ll also benefit from playing at home where they’re 45-30 with a +55 run differential.
Cubs -1.5 first 7 innings (+114 at DraftKings)
It’s worth looking at taking an aggressive stance in favor of the Cubs, who are sending standout rookie Shota Imanaga against the Athletics. The Cubs are five games out of the third wild card spot, which is likely too large of a gap at this point. But they’re second in the division compared to the Athletics who have been eliminated. The Cubs (5.5 R/G) and Athletics (3.6) have also been on opposite ends of the spectrum offensively since September 1.
White Sox over 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-105 at DraftKings)
The White Sox are in the midst of their first winning streak — two games — of the second half, and they’re playing against one of the worst pitching staffs in the league. The Angels have compiled a 4.55 ERA at home on the season, and a 6.02 mark in September, the second-worst in baseball. Angels lefty Reid Detmers has pitched well in his last two starts, but has a 5.77 ERA at home and a 5.64 ERA overall.
In the News
UT jumps Georgia for No. 1: Texas is No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25 college football poll for the first time in 16 years, replacing Georgia on Sunday after the Bulldogs struggled to remain unbeaten. … The last time the Longhorns were No. 1 was the middle of the 2008 season, when they spent three weeks at the top of the polls before losing a memorable game at Texas Tech in early November. [Associated Press]
Wilson breaks WNBA scoring record: Las Vegas forward A'ja Wilson became the first player in WNBA history to hit the 1,000-point mark for a season Sunday in the Aces' 84-71 victory over Connecticut. Wilson hit 1,000 on the dot with a fadeaway jump shot with 1 minute, 57 seconds left. Her teammates and the crowd at Michelob Ultra Arena celebrated with Wilson, who is the overwhelming favorite for the 2024 WNBA MVP award. [ESPN]
More Longhorns, with a Manning takeover: We don’t know how long he’ll be the guy, because we don’t know enough about the severity of Quinn Ewers’ abdominal injury. We also don’t know yet if it’s a Wally Pipp situation, in large part because Ewers had been playing at a level that had him in early contention for the Heisman Trophy. But here’s what we do know: Entering Saturday, Texas had the most enviable backup quarterback situation in the country in an era in which it’s nearly impossible to have high quality depth at the position with the existence of the transfer portal. [NBC Sports]
What to Watch
3pm: Wrexham vs. Birmingham City on CBSSN and Paramount+ because it’ll be good soccer but also because it’s Ryan Reynolds vs. Tom Brady.
7:20pm: Dodgers vs. Braves, featuring Yamamoto vs. Fried, on MLB Network.
Photo of the Day
The Vikings moved to 2-0 in the Darnold Era | Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
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