With a Lot Still at Stake in MLB, Here's What to Look for Today

In today’s newsletter…

Week 3 in the NFL is when we can start seeing the difference between the early flukes and what could be season-long trends. Are the nine 0-2 teams the worst teams in the league? No. Are the nine 2-0 teams the league’s best? Probably not. We’ll learn more from Thursday to Monday. You can find our quick guide to Week 3 on our website.

In today’s newsletter, Chris is covering tomorrow’s Patriots vs. Jets game, Jack is tracking Thursday and Friday college football matchups, and Craig has today’s MLB slate.

And speaking of Craig, did you all see that all seven of the MLB bets he analyzed on Monday hit? You can find that edition on our website to check for yourself. (Disclaimer: You shouldn’t expect this from us — or anyone else in the industry — but it’s still very awesome. No pressure today, Craig!)

Enjoy today’s newsletter!

- Abe Rakov

Patriots Running Game Could Keep it Close in Rodgers’ Return to Meadowlands

By Chris Farley

Patriots +6.5 (-110 at Bookmaker)
If you've been a fan of the NFL for the last decade-plus, this spread looks funky. The Patriots, not the Jets, are the big underdog? That's right — Aaron Rodgers is finally healthy and he's played two games as New York's starter, but it hasn't been pretty. An early humbling at the hands of the 49ers was followed by the Jets fighting to survive at Tennessee this past Sunday. Both were a tough watch, but Rodgers and his new team found their first win in Week 2. This is also the Jets' third game in 10 days. New England's rushing attack (177.5 yards per game), stingy defense (16.5 ppg allowed), and ability to play ball-control should keep this game close.

Patriots vs. Jets under 38.5 points (-105 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
Even though the number has ticked down a few notches, it probably hasn't ticked down enough. The Jets' defense hasn't been as stifling, but they're back at home in front of their fans against an offense that has no explosive qualities. It's also Aaron Rodgers' first AFC East rivalry game, a situation that may warrant a temperate start for the former MVP — and he's played very conservatively so far (6.1 yards per pass). Both teams will want to run the ball and win with defense, which amounts to a clock-bleeding, hard-hitting battle, like most AFC East affairs. The last four games in this series have averaged 24 ppg.

Aaron Rodgers under 213.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Speaking of unders, Aaron Rodgers has averaged just 171.5 yards per game in two starts, and that was in two situations that warranted more of an air attack. They were chasing San Francisco for most of Week 1, and in Week 2 they found themselves in a close game against a defense that lost significant talent in its pass rush. It didn't matter; both sub-200 yard performances from Rodgers. On Thursday Night, a New England defense that's allowing just 3.3 yards per rush (3rd overall) will push Rodgers to throw more, but we like an aggressive man-to-man game plan from Jarod Mayo to test the former Packers QB. The Jets' passing game doesn’t look mature enough to start soaring in these circumstances just yet.

Rhamondre Stevenson over 64.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
New England's early top-5 rank on the ground (177.5 rushing yards per game) is no fluke. Against two formidable defenses (Cincinnati and Seattle), the Patriots managed to slow down the game and bully opposing fronts, a method that nearly made them 2-0. Rhamondre Stevenson has been the clear choice as their workhorse back, stacking up 200 yards in two weeks. Although it'll likely improve, New York's bottom-third in rush defense (4.7 yards per carry/155 yards per game allowed), and their defensive line is hurt (now without Jermaine Johnson). We'd look at Stevenson in your fantasy teams even beyond this Thursday.

Jets 1st Drive Result: Field Goal (+370 at FanDuel)
The last time Aaron Rodgers played at the Meadowlands as the new Jets' QB was when disaster struck in Week 1 last season: aka the Achilles injury that made him sit out the entire 2023 campaign. We like that to fuel the Jets on their first drive behind a home crowd, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Patriots and Jets rivalry is as old and hardened as they come, and we highly doubt Jarod Mayo's defense will allow Rodgers and the Jets' offense to march right down for an early touchdown. This is forecasting moderate early success for a motivated Jets' squad, with tempered expectations against a resistance that's only allowing a TD on 1/3 of its opponent's drives. 

NFL Future: Bengals win the Super Bowl (+2000 at FanDuel)
If you’ve been considering buying Cincinnati Bengals stock this season, the time is now. For the third straight year, the Bengals have managed to start 0-2, but we all know it doesn't mean very much. The Bengals were in the Super Bowl in 2022, despite a porous offensive line and Joe Burrow's relative naiveté. They started to surge last season before Burrow's injury, and they're the only team that's proven they can not only hang with the mighty Chiefs, they can beat them (Burrow is 3-2 in his career versus Mahomes). Cincinnati has Washington and Carolina on deck, two of the worst teams in the NFL, so we probably won’t get this price again.

Tigers are 8-2 Straight-Up and Against the Spread Over Their Last 10

By Craig Williams

White Sox under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (+114 at DraftKings)
We’re bearish on the White Sox racking up much offense in today’s afternoon start. They’re facing sinkerballer Jack Kochanowicz, who should induce an overwhelming amount of contact (8% strikeout rate). Making contact isn’t the issue for the White Sox, though. Their problem is making quality contact. They rank bottom-five in a number of batted ball metrics this month, including barrel percentage, hard hit rate, and soft contact.

Jack Kochanowicz over 17.5 outs (-150 at DraftKings)
Kochanowicz fell short of this mark by one out in his previous start, but there’s reason to like him in this spot nonetheless. He demonstrated how effective he can be during a five-start stretch from August 11 to September 5, producing a 2.84 ERA, 1.4 BB/9, and 58% groundball rate. Plus, we’re not anticipating many deep at-bats from the free-swinging White Sox, especially with an off day before their series in San Diego.

Twins vs. Guardians under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-145 at DraftKings)
Both Bailey Ober and Tanner Bibee have pitched well for the Twins and Guardians, respectively. And both delivered quality performances when these teams met in August. Conversely, both teams are struggling at the dish to a slight degree in recent weeks. The Twins are averaging 3.7 runs per game in September; meanwhile, the Guardians are averaging 3.4. With each starter in good form overall, it’s reasonable to anticipate another low-scoring contest.

Yankees moneyline first 5 innings (-114 at FanDuel)
We’re going to release some of our fear regarding Nestor Cortes’ road splits after his last three road outings (18 innings, 1 earned run). The Mariners are hitting better overall of late, including at home, but we’re backing the pitching and defense part of this equation — especially since a good portion of that offensive success came against the Texas Rangers, who are struggling mightily on the pitching side.

Yankees vs. Mariners under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-140 at DraftKings)
We’re going to touch on Cortes again and acknowledge the healthy competition that has been generated among Yankees pitchers. The way Cortes responded following his (hitless) bullpen appearance suggests his ears are up, so to speak, and he’s fully checked in. Bryce Miller, meanwhile, has been lights out at home, pitching to a 1.99 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and allowing a .182 average; and he’s been incredible in the second half overall with a 2.16 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.

Tigers -1.5 (+122 at FanDuel)
We accept that covering on the road at Kansas City is a challenging task for the Tigers, but we’re putting our faith in Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal, who has a 2.27 ERA and 2.30 FIP over his last seven starts. Alec Marsh takes the hill for the Royals against a Tigers team that is 8-2 straight-up and against the spread over their last 10. The Tigers also enter play with a significant bullpen advantage on paper.

Blue Jays -0.5 first five innings (+140 at DraftKings)
This is about Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis, who has a 1.50 ERA, microscopic 0.44 WHIP, and is limiting opponents to a .101 average and .168 wOBA over his last 48 frames. Just to emphasize his dominance, he’s allowed 16 hits and five walks over that span. The Blue Jays are middle of the pack in runs per game in September (4.5), but they may not need much with Francis on the hill.

Ohio State Transfer QB Putting Up Big Numbers for Syracuse

By Jack Dougherty

South Alabama @ Appalachian State over 63.5 points (-112 at DraftKings)
Tempo, tempo, tempo. That’s going to be the theme of this Sun Belt showdown. These two teams love to push the pace on offense, as South Alabama and Appalachian State rank 16th and 53rd, respectively, in seconds per play. App State quarterback Joey Aguilar is coming off a 424-yard performance against East Carolina, and South Alabama dropped a cool 87 points in its last game against Northwestern State. Both offenses can create explosive plays in the run and pass games.

(Friday Games)

Kyle McCord 300+ passing yards (+114 at FanDuel)
Ohio State didn’t think Kyle McCord could cut it in a Big Ten offense, but he’s been doing just fine at Syracuse. The transfer quarterback has thrown for 354 and 381 yards in his first two starts with the Orange. Syracuse has built its offense around McCord airing it out, as it ranks 14th in the country in pass-play percentage (59.9%). Stanford already gave up 353 passing yards to Josh Hoover and TCU, and the Cardinal ranks 103rd in the country in pass yards per attempt (8.4).

Illinois vs. Nebraska under 43 points (+100 at DraftKings)
Dylan Raiola has captured all the attention for Nebraska thus far, but the defense has been the star of the show. The Cornhuskers rank ninth in the country in opponent points per game (8.5), 12th in opponent yards per play (3.9) and first in opponent rushing yards per game (36.0). That’s bad news for Illinois, which is rushing the ball 51.6% of the time this season. Both of these teams want to play slow, as Nebraska and Illinois rank 115th and 122nd, respectively, in seconds per play. That slow tempo will limit the possessions and help out the under. 

San Jose State +11.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Washington State has impressed to start the season with back-to-back wins against Texas Tech and Washington, but it’s entering a dreaded sandwich spot. The Cougars are coming off an emotional, last-minute victory against their biggest rival, and they have a huge game on deck against Boise State. It’ll be hard to get up for little old San Jose State in between. The Spartans have one of the best statistical pass defenses in the country, grabbing six interceptions and giving up only one passing touchdown in three games. 

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