Nine 0-2 Teams Feeling Desperate in Week 3 in the NFL

In today’s newsletter…

Giants Offensive Woes Show No Signs of Ending

By Chris Farley

Broncos +6.5 (-109 at BetOnline)
From a market perspective, few games stand out as much as this one. First, there is no way that Tampa Bay would have been a touchdown favorite before the season. Two weeks in, some of our perceptions have changed, especially considering Tampa's Week 2 win at Detroit. On the other hand, the Bucs were outgained significantly, more than doubled in total yards (TB: 216, DET: 463), and were probably fortunate to escape with a W. Bo Nix is going through growing pains, but the Broncos have been very competitive in two losses. Sean Payton will not be intimidated by Raymond James Stadium, a site he visited yearly in his time with the Saints, and Tampa is due for massive regression.

Colts -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
For weeks and weeks before the season, we warned Bears' fans that things may not go as smoothly as they thought. Already we're seeing the signs. Caleb Williams apparently believes his own hype, evidenced by a text to his punter before the season, saying, "We're not going to punt very much." That turned out to be dead wrong — they've punted 12 times and should be 0-2. The Colts laid an egg last week at Green Bay, credit should be given to Matt LaFleur's game-plan, but Shane Steichen is a sharp coach and this is a winless program, at home, with a dynamic QB and proud defense. Good luck, Caleb.

Giants team total under 15.5 points (even at FanDuel)
Like many 0-2 teams in Week 3, the Giants are desperate for better results. Some will blindly bet on teams when this is the case, but we just can't get there with New York. Besides an outlier season in 2022, when new coach Brian Daboll won AP Coach of the Year, it's been the same old story for the G-Men. This is a program that's been in the bottom-5 in scoring in four out of its last six seasons. Not shockingly, they've started very similarly in 2024, ranking 31st in points (12) and 24th in yards (272) per game. At Cleveland, against a defense that found its mojo last week, is not a good situation for Daniel Jones and his colleagues.

Titans -3 (+101 at Bookmaker)
Week 2 was a statement from Matt LaFluer and his Packers, undoubtedly motivated to play well for their home crowd and avenge a Week 1 disappointment and an injury to their star QB. But this will be a different test. The Titans have fought hard and looked better than their 0-2 record; in fact, they could easily be 2-0. Multiple dumbo-plays by Will Levis were the difference in two previous contests, but sharps and oddsmakers are content with the home team's position as chalk. We agree; this is Tennessee's chance to get off the schneid against a QB (Malik Willis) they know better than anyone else (assuming Jordan Love doesn’t make a miraculous recovery and play).

Panthers +5 (-105 at Bovada)
Here comes the red-rocket! Sadly, second-year QB Bryce Young has been benched after two pitiful performances, but when a change this huge happens, the team usually responds. Earlier in the week the Raiders were 7-point chalk, that's a blasphemy on its own, but even 5 points is far too many for a program that was very fortunate to pull out a win in Baltimore last week. The Ravens gained 123 more yards than the Raiders and held them to just 13 points until they capitulated later in the fourth quarter. The Panthers are 0-2 but they're not much worse than the Raiders, who are as volatile as Gardner Minshew's quarterback-play.

Cowboys +1 (-108 at DraftKings)
Not since 2015 has a Ravens' team started this poorly, and we don't think it's a fluke. Baltimore has real issues on their offensive line, which is a terrible thing when you're about to faceoff against Micah Parsons and Dallas' vicious front seven, and Lamar Jackson's offense doesn't look in-sync. Their defense is also lacking the same aggression it had last year, especially in the passing game (opponents are completing 76% of their passes against Baltimore, ranking 30th). Mike McCarthy is very good in these spots, 8-2 ATS the last two seasons after a loss, and the Boys are at home with more firepower to exploit the Ravens' defense. The value lies with Dallas.

Jaguars +5 (-110 at Bovada and DraftKings)
This is the ultimate "kitchen-sink" game for Doug Pederson and his team. Through two weeks the Jaguars have been mistake-prone on offense and their defense couldn't make stops when it mattered most. However, one strength stands out that could be a difference maker in their Week 3 matchup: they're 7th in opponent yards per rush (3.8). Josh Allen might be the best player in the NFL, but right now Buffalo is riding high, perhaps higher than they should be, and this is too many points to give a Jaguars' squad that will leave it all on the field Monday night. Pederson and Trevor Lawrence's reputations are on the line, and they should be considered a very live dog.

Labar: Answering Your Questions from Social Media

Social media … we love to love it and love to hate it at the same time. As we approach October, it’s been a pretty exciting place lately. I don’t know about you guys, but my timeline has been filled with NHL training camps, media days, MLB playoff berth celebrations, and of course all the football news and updates. How many times do I have to say I love this time of year?

Anywho, it’s also a great place to connect with you guys. I love when there is an opportunity to converse with you all directly (the haters can disregard anything I just said). I’ll give credit where credit is due: My editor had this fantastic idea to take to social media and do a mailbag to have you all ask the hard-hitting questions, because let’s be honest, I’m doing this for you guys anyways.

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

Braves Have Good Matchup Against Struggling Marlins with Tired Bullpen

By Craig Williams

Cubs -1.5 (+120 at DraftKings)
Jameson Taillon has a 1.42 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over his last 19 innings and enters today’s start with favorable home and day game splits. He’ll be backed by an offense scoring 4.9 runs per game over its last 13. Meanwhile, Washington’s Trevor Williams is making his first start since May 30, and presuming he’s on a modest pitch count, will leave a lot of outs for the Nationals’ struggling bullpen (6.00 ERA in September).

Tigers +1.5 (-135 at DraftKings)
The Orioles are averaging a meager 2.3 runs per game over their last 12 contests and have finished 4-8 against the spread across that span. Tigers starter Keider Montero is pitching reasonably well over his last nine starts, posting a 3.33 ERA and 1.15 WHIP (51.1 IP). Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes will be a challenge for the Tigers, but they should be able to do enough damage against a struggling O’s ‘pen to keep this one close.

Mets moneyline first 5 innings (-110 at FanDuel)
We’re leaning to the Mets at home, particularly in the first half of this contest. Cristopher Sanchez has pitched well of late, but we’re fading his 5.13 road ERA in this spot. The Mets are 44-34 at Citi Field and will call upon fellow lefty David Peterson, who tossed 7.2 of one-run ball against the Phillies in his last outing. He has a 2.22 ERA and 2.96 FIP over his last nine starts overall.

Braves -1.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
We’re buying Braves starter Charlie Morton, who has a 2.68 ERA and 3.20 FIP over his last 40.1 innings. He hasn’t pitched particularly deep into games over that span, but he’ll hand the ball off to a bullpen that has been solid (3.28 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in September). As far as the Marlins are concerned, it’s worth asking if starter Valente Bellozo will be asked to “take one for the team” after they taxed the bullpen on Thursday.

Mariners under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-120 at DraftKings)
Jacob deGrom performed well in his first start back from Tommy John surgery, and we’re bullish on another strong performance against the Mariners, who are 32-43 on the road. We’re not anticipating significant depth from deGrom — he tossed 3.2 innings on 61 pitches — but we’re willing to bank on a quality showing nonetheless, and specifically one that gets him close to the five-inning plateau.

Yankees -0.5 first 5 innings (-125 at DraftKings)
The Athletics are 36-39 at home while the Yankees’ 47 road wins lead MLB. The Yankees have leaned more heavily on pitching than offense of late, but a lineup with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto can pop at any moment. Oakland checks in at 3.6 R/G over their last 12, so it’s not as if they’re scaring anyone with the lumber themselves. Finally, the Yankees are still vying for the American League East crown and the AL’s best record.

Gerrit Cole over 6.5 strikeouts (-113 at FanDuel)
We fully expect Cole to enter tonight’s contest with a high degree of focus and motivation after enduring a vexing start against the Red Sox. It’s fair to imagine he’s itching to wash away the lingering taste of the self-inflicted wounds that sunk him last Saturday. The Athletics will likely be the victim of Cole’s frustration. They’re striking out at a 25.5% clip over their last 12 games.

Heisman Hopeful Faces Tough Road Test at Oklahoma

By Jack Dougherty

Marshall team total under 2.5 points first half (+100 at FanDuel)
We’re not sure how Marshall moves the ball past midfield against Ohio State’s starting defense. The Buckeyes rank first in the country in yards per play allowed (2.3), yards per rush allowed (1.1) and points per game allowed (3.0). They suffocated Western Michigan two weeks ago, allowing just 99 total yards of offense and forcing 11 punts in the game. Coming off a bye, this defense has its sights set on another shutout. 

Temple +6 (-110 at DraftKings)
We’re getting down and dirty with this one. Temple is one of the worst teams in the country, but it’s not this much worse than Utah State. The Aggies are coming off blowout losses to Utah and USC, and their only win came against Robert Morris. Temple got crushed by Oklahoma and Navy to start the year, but it switched quarterbacks last week and nearly knocked off 3-0 Coastal Carolina as 17-point underdogs. The Owls are trending up with Evan Simon under center.

Kent State vs. Penn State under 55.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)
Speaking of bad teams, Kent State might actually be the worst team in Division I. The Golden Flashes rank 133rd out of 134 teams in yards per play (2.7), points allowed per game (63.0) and rushing yards allowed per game (323.5). Tennessee beat Kent State 71-0 last week, but Penn State doesn’t have the same explosiveness on offense. Kent State might not score a point for the second straight week, and the Nittany Lions should be content with getting the backups some snaps and keeping the starters fresh with Big Ten play beginning next week. 

Louisiana-Monroe +44.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
This is a similar handicap in that Texas isn’t interested in pushing the starters too far and risking more injuries. The Longhorns already lost Quinn Ewers to an abdominal injury last week, so backup quarterback Arch Manning will make his first career start in this one. Manning should push Texas to an early lead, but it won’t be easy to cover this massive spread against a Louisiana-Monroe offense that runs the ball at the fourth-highest clip in the country (75%).

South Florida +17 (-110 at BetMGM)
Miami has looked like a national title contender early in the season, but how impressed should we be with blowout wins against Florida A&M, Ball State and a terrible Florida team? This is the perfect time to play against the hype. If you rewind to last season, Miami started 4-0 with an impressive (on paper) win against Texas A&M, and the Hurricanes lost to Georgia Tech as 19.5-point favorites. This is what Mario Cristobal does. Byrum Brown’s dual-threat ability should cause problems for this untested Miami defense.

California moneyline (+120 at Bet365)
Why is Florida State still getting any credit in the betting market? D.J. Uiagalelei is completing just 56.6% of his passes, the offensive line can’t protect him or make holes for the running game and the defense ranks 90th in the country in rushing yards allowed per game. In comes California’s run-heavy offense after rumbling for 275 rushing yards against San Diego State last week. The Golden Bears already traveled to Auburn and pulled off the upset. They won’t be intimidated by a half-empty Doak Campbell Stadium and a locker room that’s already lost all hope for the season. 

Nico Iamaleava under 256.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The Tennessee quarterback looks like a Heisman contender through three games, but there’s a big difference between letting it rip against overmatched teams and going into hostile territory under the lights for your first road start against a well-coached defense. He won’t be able to hide the nerves in a tough environment, so head coach Josh Heupel will likely try to ease those nerves by pounding Dylan Sampson and the run game early on. Iamaleava threw the ball only 23 times and went for 211 yards through the air against NC State as the ground game did a majority of the work, and that should be the game plan here. 

When Arsenal and Man City Meet, Look for a Low Score

By Sam Farley

Chelsea to win (+110 at BetMGM)
The first game of Saturday is a London derby with West Ham vs Chelsea, which is always a fun game. When these teams met in May it was Chelsea who won 5-0, and given early-season form, there’s a strong chance we see another Chelsea win. West Ham have only one win to their name, while Chelsea have won two of their last three and look dangerous in attack.

Southampton vs. Ipswich over 2.5 goals (-133 at FanDuel)
When the Premier League schedule was announced, this game would have been one that both managers circled as one they should win, as both teams were promoted from the Championship last season. It’s too early to call any game must-win, but there should be goals here with both sides desperate to win. Not to mention the last time these teams met (in April), it was a five-goal thriller won by Ipswich.

Luis Diaz to score (+175 at FanDuel)
The Colombian has been Liverpool’s best player not named Mohamed Salah this season. While the Egyptian does take penalties, both men have scored three goals this season — Salah is far shorter odds at -120 to score. Luis Diaz has been taking 2.3 shots per game and looks more of a goal getter under new manager Arne Slot’s system. 

Liverpool vs. Bournemouth draw at halftime (+185 at FanDuel)
So far this season Liverpool have played two Premier League games at Anfield and have been tied at the half in one and winning in the other. But they’ve only scored one first half goal at home, compared with two when they’ve played away. With Bournemouth the guests, who’ve seen just one goal in the first halves of two away games, there’s a good chance of a slow start here with scores level at the interval.

Dominic Solanke to score first (+450 at FanDuel)
Brentford have leaked early goals on the road, conceding three first half goals in just two games away from home. With that in mind, we’re looking at a Spurs player to score first, and who else but Dominic Solanke? He’s yet to score in his two appearances since moving from Bournemouth this summer, but scored 19 in the Premier League last time and has averaged two shots per game so far this season. The goal will come very soon.

Manuel Ugarte to get a card (+220 at BetMGM)
Man Utd will be hoping that Manuel Ugarte can be the missing piece that fixes the jigsaw of their midfield. This will be his first Premier League start, but he’s a player who does the dirty work in midfield. He’s physical, hard in the tackle and averaged a yellow card every four starts at PSG last season. In a new league with a quicker tempo, he’s a high risk for a booking as he gets settled.

Joshua Zirkzee to score (+200 at FanDuel)
Man Utd’s Dutch striker has scored just the one goal so far but not for lack of trying, with five shots on target in four games. However, when you consider that he’s only started two games, it turns his average to 1.81 shots on target per game. That’s a very high average compared to most other players in the league, and we’re sure to see that convert into goals sooner rather than later.

(Sunday Matches)

Brighton to win (-130 at BetMGM)
Heading into this weekend Brighton are sixth in the Premier League table with Nottingham Forest seventh and level on points. It’s fair to say that through four games it’s been Forest who’ve been the biggest surprise, but it’s still early and they lack the quality of Brighton, who should be able to get the three points at home given that they’re better in nearly every area of the field.

Manchester City vs Arsenal under 2.5 goals (-120 at BetMGM)
Whenever big clubs meet there’s always an expectation that we’re going to see lots of goals, but it’s rarely like that. Across both meetings between these clubs last season there was just a single goal, with the teams focusing on not losing, as opposed to winning. Arsenal have the best defense in the Premier League this season, allowing just one goal, and also allowed the fewest last season. They should keep it tight here.

Man City to win (-125 at FanDuel)
Arsenal will be getting Declan Rice back following suspension but Martin Odegaard is still missing, which is a huge loss for the Gunners’ attack. For City there’s doubts over Kevin De Bruyne but he could still play. And with Rodri likely to make his first start of the Premier League season, it’s City who have the advantage. They’ve started this season perfectly, winning all four games, scoring 11 and conceding just three. A win here gives them a five-point lead over Arsenal in the Premier League title race and it’s just September. This team is just too good and they should be able to start thinking of retaining their Premier League title.

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