2024 NFL Predictions + Monday Night (College) Football

In today’s newsletter…

The NFL is finally (almost) here. On Thursday, the Chiefs take on the Ravens as Kansas City kicks off the season looking for its third straight championship. The Packers face the Eagles in Brazil for a rare NFL Friday matchup. And then the season really gets going on Sunday.

The Sportmoney team made predictions for 2024. Go to our website to see who Abby, Chris, Craig, Jack and I think will win each division, earn Wild Card spots and win the Super Bowl. Check this space on Wednesday for a rundown of all the Week 1 NFL action.

And congrats to Jeff from Arizona, who was randomly picked for the $25 Amazon gift card after filling out our subscriber survey. Thanks to the over 1,000 of you who also completed the survey. We appreciate you!

- Abe Rakov

BC vs. FSU is a recipe for a lot of points scored tonight

By Chris Farley

Florida State 1st quarter -4.5 (-138 at FanDuel)
This is a remarkable line considering every other book has the same spread at -6.5. DJ Uiagalelei and the Seminoles should be plenty pissed after their letdown loss against Georgia Tech last week, and we all know they have the talent to perform much better on both sides of the ball. Contrary to the formidable defensive front FSU saw last Saturday, Boston College was 13th in the ACC against the run last season. While we see buy-signs on the new Bill O'Brien offense, BC will need time to warm up. Back at home, Florida State is in a great spot to pounce early and gain margin.

Boston College vs. Florida State over 50 (-108 at DraftKings)
While it may take Boston College's offense a second to come together, we see reasons to believe they can impress in their 2024 debut. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos enters a new system after gaining 400 yards against a more talented Seminoles' defense last year. Ultimately the Eagles fell short, 31-29, but Castellanos' skill-set was on full display and we could see a repeat performance in a higher-level operation this season. Florida State struggled slowing down Georgia Tech last week, which must raise Bill O'Brien's level of confidence. BC's defense allowed over 28 ppg last season, setting up for a perfect revenge game for the mobile DJ Uiagalelei after a stinker last week. Points are awaiting!

Burnes should be able to pitch long against hapless White Sox

By Craig Williams

Orioles -1.5 first 5 innings (-110 at DraftKings)
The White Sox are in the midst of another never-ending slide, entering tonight’s contest on a 10-game losing streak. They’re 2-8 against the spread over that span as well. One can only imagine how desperately some in the clubhouse want the season to end. Traveling to Baltimore — the White Sox have 13 road wins this season — won’t help. Nor will facing an Orioles team battling for the top spot in the AL.

Corbin Burnes over 18.5 outs (+120 at DraftKings)
We’re picking on the White Sox again in this spot due to their own futility, especially on the road. Baltimore’s Burnes did not produce a pretty August, but in fairness, he faced challenging competition. He went over this number in back-to-back starts to end July, so he’s not too far removed from providing length. Hosting a moribund and toothless lineup is just what Burnes needs to generate momentum for the final month.

Royals -0.5 first 5 innings (+114 at DraftKings)
The Royals have dropped five in a row, but they simply ran into a buzzsaw against the Houston Astros — in Houston. It’s not unreasonable to envision the Royals regrouping at home, where they are 41-28 with a +51 run differential. We like the odds associated with the Royals, behind right-hander Michael Wacha, to get out to a good start against the Guardians, who they nearly caught in the division a week ago.

Athletics moneyline (+120 at FanDuel)
We’re going to be a little aggressive here with a play on the home underdog. The Athletics are 5-5 over their last 10 with an active two-game skid — just like the Mariners. The Mariners also have the theoretical advantage in the pitching department, sending Logan Gilbert against Osvaldo Bido. Gilbert isn’t as sharp on the road, and the A’s are scoring five runs per game over their last seven. And Bido, to his credit, produced a 1.55 ERA and .196 wOBA in August.

Yankees over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-110 at DraftKings)
The Yankees own the game’s best road run-differential (+90) and average the most runs (5.3 R/G) away from home. They’re facing rookie Jack Leiter, who has great stuff but is in the “learning to harness it” phase of his young career — he’s yet to complete five frames in any of his four starts. The Yankees’ bats may not be as hot as the Cubs, but they’re averaging 4.8 R/G over their last 10.

Rangers under 2.5 runs first 7 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
Gerrit Cole is taking the hill for the Yankees, not only assuming the role of stopper, but carrying strong numbers into the contest. He produced a 1.93 ERA and 27% strikeout rate in 28 August innings, and completed six shutout frames in two of his last three outings. With the Orioles only a half-game back in the AL East, Cole and the Yankees are — presumably — locked in as the postseason looms.

Wozniacki returning to her form from a decade ago

By Chris Farley

Caroline Wozniacki vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia over 2.5 sets (+110 at DraftKings)
Two power-hitters will clash in the afternoon slot of the women's third round, and we're here for it. Caroline Wozniacki looks like the same player who nearly won in New York back in 2009 and 2014. She's moving with ease, using her length to cover space like few other players can — a lethal skill when combined with her experience and court IQ. She's had a convenient draw so far but she's done her job, losing only 12 total games in three straight-set wins. Beatriz Haddad Maia is easily her greatest challenge yet, and Maia brings the kind of heat and athleticism that can rival Wozniacki's brilliant decision-making. This sets up to be a 3-set classic.

Iga Swiatek vs. Liudmila Samsonova over 19.5 games (+110 at BetOnline)
It's hard to ever fade Iga Swiatek in any way but this is more about respect for her opponent. Liudmila Samsonova can raise her game and play as impressively as any woman in the world, evidenced perhaps most clearly in her 14-game (6-1, 6-1) annihilation of fan favorite Ashlyn Krueger on Saturday night. Besides one sleepy set against Marie Bouzkova, Samsonova has been ice-cold in three U.S. Open matches, seemingly unbothered by the bright lights. World No. 1 Swiatek presents a different challenge, and she's 3-0 in her career against the 25-year-old Russian. We care not. Samsonova's form is too good to believe she can't win eight games.

Jannik Sinner wins 3-1 (+240 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
Jannik Sinner’s first set at the U.S. Open was head-scratching, a clumsy 6-2 loss against the mediocre Mackenzie McDonald, but the Italian has been on fire since. The world’s No. 1 men’s player lost just 18 total games in his next three matches, displaying an aggressive, charging style that’s overwhelming every opponent in swift fashion. A heavy hitter and big-server, Tommy Paul will present Sinner’s biggest challenge yet. The two will clash for the fourth time in their career (Sinner owns a 2-1 lead), but this is the first time they’ll meet in a Grand Slam. Every previous match was closely fought, with Paul able to lean on his giant first serves to even the playing field. On home turf, in one of the biggest battles of his career, we’ll give one set to Paul, but Sinner’s been too good to fade for too long.

(Tuesday Match)

Emma Navarro wins 2-1 (+320 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
We're not getting off the Emma Navarro train just yet. Paula Badosa is a very good player who has thrived on hard courts. On her way to Flushing, she won the Citi Open, blazing a trail of wins over formidable foes like Sofia Kenin, Liudmila Samsonova and Caroline Dolehide. Several weeks later, she nearly won the Cincinnati Masters, too, booted by Jessica Pegula in the semifinals in a 3-set thriller. Emma Navarro is an underdog for fair reason, and oddsmakers are probably expecting some regression after she just beat last year’s U.S. Open winner, Coco Gauff. We’re not in agreement. Navarro is playing very sharp tennis, but we’ll grant Badosa the credit she deserves, at least in one set. 

Good matchup for Woods Richardson to rack up some Ks

By Jack Dougherty

Brewers -0.5 first 5 innings (-125 at DraftKings)
This is a huge pitching mismatch. Freddy Peralta is starting to turn it on with only nine hits allowed, one earned run and 13 strikeouts over his last three starts. One of those starts just happened to come against this Cardinals lineup, and Peralta shut them down in 5.0 scoreless innings. On the other side, current Brewers hitters are batting .433 with a .466 wOBA in 34 plate appearances against Andre Pallante. Look for Milwaukee to jump out to an early lead.

Simeon Woods Richardson over 5.5 Ks (+120 at DraftKings)
Simeon Woods Richardson isn’t an elite strikeout artist by any stretch, but he’s shown the ability to rack up Ks in tough matchups. The Twins right-hander has gone over this line in three of his last five starts. Two of those starts came against the San Diego Padres and the Cleveland Guardians, two of the stingiest strikeout lineups in baseball. The Rays aren’t that, as they have the highest strikeout rate against righties over the last two weeks (28.5%).

Luis Severino 8+ strikeouts (+255 at FanDuel)
This is a decent spot for an alternate line. Severino has recorded eight or more strikeouts in three of his last four starts, and he has a 30.0% strikeout rate in that span. The Mets right-hander should be able to keep it rolling against a Red Sox lineup that has the fifth-highest K rate against righties over the last two months (25.6%). 

J.D. Martinez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+115 at DraftKings)
Martinez has been producing a ton of runs for the Mets lately. The New York slugger leads the team with 10 RBIs and ranks second in runs scored (seven) and home runs (four) over the last 15 days. This is also a great matchup for him against Brayan Bello, who throws his sinker 39% of the time. Martinez is batting .375 with a .644 xSLG and a 64.0% hard-hit rate against sinkers this season. He could clear this line with one swing. 

Cubs team total over 3.5 runs (-130 at DraftKings)
There’s no slowing down this Cubs lineup right now. Chicago ranks No. 1 in MLB in batting average (.307), OPS (.924), wRC+ (159) and runs (72) against righties over the last two weeks. The Cubs have scored a ridiculous 67 runs over their last six games, and they don’t plan on slowing down against Jared Jones, who looked rusty in his first start since coming off the injured list last week.

Freddie Freeman + Ian Happ to get a hit parlay (+128 at DraftKings)
Freeman isn’t seeing the ball well right now, but that’s giving us an opportunity to look at him at a lower price. In 11 career at-bats against Eduardo Rodriguez, Freeman is batting .455 with a double. As for Ian Happ, he’s been crushing righties of late. The Cubs outfielder is batting .382 and slugging .676 with a 54.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks, and Jones can be hit hard due to his high 4-seam fastball rate (49.9%).

Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+400 at DraftKings)
You rarely see Ohtani’s home run prop start with a four, so we’re jumping on it in a solid matchup. Rodriguez is giving up a 10.1% barrel rate this season because he has a high 4-seam fastball rate (44.4%) and doesn’t throw hard enough to sneak it by opposing hitters. Well, Ohtani has a .331 xBA, a .761 xSLG and a 65.3% hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this year. Good luck throwing him a heater. 

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