Opportunities in Two Monday Night Football Games

In today’s newsletter…

Six of the seven 0-2 teams that played yesterday got their first win of the season, and the Bengals and Jaguars could make it eight of nine after a two-game Monday Night Football slate tonight (the Titans are currently the only 0-3 squad). Here are some highlights from yesterday’s matchups from NFL Next Gen stats:

In today’s newsletter, Jack is covering Monday Night Football, Craig has today’s MLB action and Chris is tracking the first round of the WNBA playoffs.

- Abe Rakov

Bills Rookie WR Played 97% of Team’s Snaps Against Dolphins Last Week

By Jack Dougherty

Jacksonville Jaguars +6 (-110 at Caesars)
The Jaguars are 0-2 to start the season, but they’re a few plays away from being 2-0 and this line being closer to +3. In Week 1, Jacksonville was about to take a 24-7 lead against Miami late in the third quarter when Travis Etienne fumbled at the 1-yard line. In Week 2, the Jaguars outgained the Cleveland Browns in yards per play, 5.9-4.6, held them to 2/14 on third-down conversions and still lost. Through two weeks, the Jags rank 31st in the NFL in luck rating, while the Bills rank fifth. These two teams are closer than this spread indicates.

Keon Coleman over 35.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Keon Coleman might already be the most talented pass-catcher the Bills have. At least, the coaches sure see it that way. Coleman has led all Bills wide receivers in snaps (86) through two weeks. The rookie played 97% of the team’s offensive snaps against the Dolphins last week, but he didn’t catch a pass because Buffalo barely had to throw the ball in a blowout win. Coleman has a great chance to emerge as Josh Allen’s favorite target at some point this season, and that could begin on Monday night.

Brenton Strange anytime touchdown scorer (+410 at FanDuel)
Without Evan Engram in the lineup last week, Brenton Strange took over as the pass-catching tight end for the Jaguars. The second-year TE played 68% of the team’s offensive snaps and was on the field for all but four of Trevor Lawrence’s dropbacks. Lawrence loves utilizing his tight ends, as he fed the position 14 red-zone targets last season. Strange saw six targets against the Browns last week and one came inside the 20-yard line. He should have another busy game on Monday night.

Ja’Marr Chase anytime touchdown scorer (+120 at Bet365)
Ja’Marr Chase has been uncharacteristically quiet through two weeks with just 10 catches for 97 yards and no touchdowns, but his first two games came against the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs — two stingy passing defenses with lockdown corners. The Washington Commanders are the complete opposite. Washington gave up 83 yards and a touchdown to Chris Godwin in Week 1 and 127 yards and a touchdown to Malik Nabers in Week 2. This might be the worst secondary in the NFL through two weeks, and star wide receivers should feast against this unit all year.

Tee Higgins under 3.5 receptions (-110 at FanDuel)
Tee Higgins is set to make his season debut on Monday night after nursing a hamstring injury to start the season, but we’re not convinced he’ll be able to jump in the lineup and take on a full workload right away. We’ve already seen wide receivers such as Brandon Aiyuk and CeeDee Lamb struggle to play up to their expectations after missing a ton of time in training camp. It should take some time for Higgins to carve out his role in this offense under new coordinator Dan Pitcher.

Jayden Daniels over 18.5 completions (-102 at FanDuel)
Jayden Daniels leads the NFL in completion percentage (75.5%) through two weeks because he’s averaging just 7.74 air yards per attempt. The rookie doesn’t feel comfortable taking shots down the field yet, so he’s checking down and opting for easy completions on most of his dropbacks. The Commanders also want Daniels to take off and run less to avoid injuries, as his rush attempts dropped from 16 in Week 1 to 10 in Week 2. More pass attempts, easy completions near the line of scrimmage and playing from behind as a big underdog is the perfect combination for this prop.

Chase Brown under 24.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
We weren’t sure what the Bengals backfield was going to look like coming into the season, but Zack Moss has clearly taken over as the No. 1 running back in this offense. Moss played 51 snaps in Week 2 and Chase Brown played only 13 while serving primarily as the third-down back. Brown has only seven carries through two games, and we don’t expect that workload to change on Monday night in what should be a pass-heavy game plan for Cincinnati.

Bryce Miller’s Home/Road Splits Point to Astros Advantage over Mariners

By Craig Williams

Cubs +0.5 first 5 innings (-102 at FanDuel)
The Phillies are fresh off a tough series loss against the Mets, and they finished the finale at roughly 9:45pm Sunday night. The trek back to Philly was short, but it’s natural to take an exhale upon returning home after a seven-game road trip — and it can play a role in teams coming out a little flat, especially for a slightly earlier first pitch (6:40 pm). That’s what we’re anticipating against the visiting Cubs, who will deploy a bullpen game — another element that may throw off the rhythm of the Phillies. Aaron Nola is pitching for Philadelphia, and while his numbers are good overall, he has struggled of late with a 5.32 ERA across 22 September innings. The Cubs are scoring 5.5 runs per game over their last 13 and have a good chance of landing the first punch tonight.

Red Sox moneyline (+100 at DraftKings)
The Red Sox are technically still alive in the wild card race, which theoretically provides a degree of extrinsic incentive to perform at a high level, something the eliminated Blue Jays do not have. Toronto’s Chris Bassitt and Boston’s Tanner Houck have endured ups and downs in recent weeks, so we’re not banking on either one necessarily pitching lights out tonight. However, we like what the Red Sox have done offensively, averaging 4.5 runs per game over their last 13, compared to 3.4 for the Blue Jays. Finally, neither team has been sharp in relief, but the Blue Jays’ 4.88 bullpen ERA adds confidence that the Sox can prevail in this contest.

Astros -0.5 first 5 innings (-105 at DraftKings)
Bryce Miller vs. Hunter Brown is a great pitching matchup on paper, and it’s possible it turns out to be a tight contest. We lean toward the Astros either way. Miller enters tonight’s contest with stark home/road splits (1.96 ERA vs. 4.44). The road struggles aren’t limited to Miller, though. The Mariners are 34-44 with a +9 run differential away from T-Mobile Park (compared to 46-32, +44 at home). The Astros, meanwhile, are 45-33 with +85 run differential at Minute Maid Park. Brown is pitching well overall and of late with a 2.21 ERA, 3.22 FIP, and only three homers allowed over his last 36.2 frames.

Giants vs. Diamondbacks over 9 runs (-110 at FanDuel)
This matchup appears poised to deliver plenty of runs. Neither Eduardo Rodriguez nor Hayden Birdsong has pitched well, and we’re considering the hitter-friendly conditions of Chase Field — certainly compared to the pitcher-friendly environment at Oracle Park. Furthermore, the Giants enter play with a .731 OPS against southpaws (compared to .684 vs. RHP), and they've hit more homers on the road. Arizona, for their part, lead the league in September scoring (6.6 R/G), and they’re entrenched in a race for one of the National League’s wildcard spots.

WNBA Playoffs Begin with Liberty Dominant, Aces in Tough Matchup

By Chris Farley

Liberty -12.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
The WNBA's best team wasted no time in its first playoff game on Sunday, crushing the Dream from the very start of the contest and holding them to under 40% from the floor. Atlanta was likely exhausted after their long fight to make the postseason last week, but that's nothing that will improve with more contests against New York. Discounting their last affair of the regular season, a game New York didn't care about, the Liberty throttled the Dream by margin in 2/3 matchups this summer, and the matchup advantages are clear across the rosters. This spread should only rise.

Sabrina Ionescu made threes under 2.5 (+106 at FanDuel)
No one is a bigger fan of Sabrina than we are, but the reality is she hasn't been stellar from beyond the arc against Atlanta. In three meaningful games this season, she only eclipsed two long-balls in one contest and the Dream managed to keep her at bay (and sub-20%) from the perimeter in the two others. Besides, if there's any game where we should anticipate intense defensive effort from Atlanta, it's on Tuesday — although in the end it may not matter. New York has many ways to beat Atlanta, which is the cherry on top of why we love the value here.

Dream vs. Liberty over 156.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)
With all due respect to oddsmakers, who I admire for posting a number like this, we kindly disagree. No program has been more efficient all season, putting up over 85 points per game on every scoreboard, but they hit a different gear in the postseason. Historically the Liberty have obliterated lesser competition, and this year they even dominated last year's champion. We expect this to be another game where Atlanta's chasing from start to finish, which means an outlier-fast pace for the underdog and inflated scoring. This is far too low.

Storm +8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Las Vegas Aces were fortunate to escape Sunday with a win. Even at home, last year's champions found themselves reeling, chasing after a Storm squad that played with intensity and moxie for all 40 minutes. The Storm completely lost their rhythm in the final quarter, and some feisty Las Vegas defense helped, but this looked and felt like an even matchup in every way. Seattle only shot 36.8% from the field and still found themselves within shooting distance. We like their defense to keep giving Vegas a run for their money, even if it's a losing effort.

Storm vs. Aces first quarter over 41.5 points (-102 at DraftKings)
Despite a low-scoring first quarter in game one, there's a reason it's inflated for Tuesday's clash. Defense took over Sunday's battle, with stars from both teams having shallow nights. Seattle's star, Jewel Lloyd, went just 2-8 for 6 points, Kelsey Plum shot a poor 1-8, and even A'ja Wilson was out of character, shooting just 9-21. Regression looms for two programs that are top-5 in scoring and at the top of efficiency rankings this season, and we usually see that transformation earlier than later in these crucial spots.

Bonus Coverage: Early NFL Week 4 Grab

By Chris Farley

Broncos +8 (-110 at DraftKings)
This is just way too many points. The Jets looked good in Week 3 but so did the Broncos. Bo Nix impressed, both through the air and in the plays he made on his feet, and Denver proved they can play solid defense when they need to (held TB to just 223 yards at home). This will be a tough road spot for Sean Payton's team, but the Jets have a super lookahead spot- they'll be in London in Week 5. I like Bo and company to be feisty at the Meadowlands, and I expect them to only get better as the season trudges on. This is also a huge coaching mismatch, in favor of the away team.

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