Playoffs on the Line in MLB Matchups + TNF Rivalry Game

In today’s newsletter…

Week 4 of the NFL kicks off with the Giants and Cowboys on Thursday Night Football and ends with another twofer on Monday night. I’ll be watching the Vikings vs. Packers at 1pm, Chiefs vs. Chargers at 4:25pm and Bills vs. Ravens on Sunday Night Football. You can check out our quick guide to Week 4 on our website. And here are a few insights from NFL Next Gen stats to help with your fantasy football lineup this week:

In today’s newsletter, Craig is tracking a full slate of MLB action, Chris has the WNBA playoffs and Thursday Night Football, and Jack is covering Thursday and Friday college football along with golf’s Presidents Cup.

- Abe Rakov

Opportunities Exist for Giants’ Singletary Against Dallas’s Struggling Rush Defense

By Chris Farley

Giants +5.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
You'd have to go back to 2016 to find the last time Dak Prescott lost a game in East Rutherford against his rival. The only problem? This isn't the same Cowboys' team. Dallas looked lost in their matchup against Baltimore in Week 3, and it's the Giants who are the more balanced program (16th in DVOA) compared to Dallas, who ranks in the bottom five. Brian Daboll loves a sustained rushing attack, the Giants officially have a superstar wideout in Malik Nabers, and the Cowboys' defense has been atrocious. Not to mention, New York has a trench-advantage on defense against a shallow offensive line (NYG scored eight sacks in Cleveland last Sunday). This is a big upset chance for Big Blue.

Cowboys vs. Giants over 45.5 points (-105 at FanDuel and Bovada)
This is our favorite TNF number. Although Dallas didn't look good in any regard in quarters 1-3 last Sunday, their offense finally woke up in the fourth quarter. Of course Baltimore's conservative defensive scheme helped, but Dak Prescott has only experienced success at MetLife Stadium (31 ppg in six straight wins there) and this is a massive regression spot. New York's defense is good up front, but Dallas can expose the back-end. The Giants also have an advantage offensively, since they're rated top-4 in run-blocking through three weeks and Dallas defends it worse than any group. Points should be coming to the Big Apple.

Dexter Lawrence over 0.25 sacks (+100 at DraftKings)
After a regrettable loss against Washington in Week 2, Dexter Lawrence and the Giants' defensive line came alive, accruing eight sacks as a unit. "Sexy-Dexy" had 2 on his own. It's taken some time for the Giants' front-seven to come together, but Week 3 was a breakout performance for a group that's as talented as any in the NFL. Dexter Lawrence has an A+ matchup heading into Thursday night since he'll likely be matched up often against rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton. Dallas' front has allowed a sack three times in each game this season, and they're #1 in the NFL in pass attempts without a sound rushing attack. Dexter is in a great spot to snag at least 1 sack.

Devin Singletary over 60.5 rush yards (-113 at FanDuel)
At this point we simply can’t trust the Cowboys' rushing defense until proven otherwise. No team in the NFL ranks worse in DVOA against the run, evidenced by their atrocious 5.4 yards per carry and 185.7 yards per game permitted to opposing offenses. Not surprisingly, offenses choose to run the ball 55.38% against Dallas, third most in the league. Devin Singletary had a quiet game against Cleveland last week until he broke out for a long run in the fourth quarter, which could happen again based on what we project to be a 20-23 carry game. Rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. isn't quite ready yet, which puts Singletary in a great position to capitalize.

Fading D-backs are 5-5 Over Last 10, 11-11 in September

By Craig Williams

Astros under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-135 at DraftKings)
The Astros clinched the American League West last night, and presumably enjoyed a lengthy celebration. One can forgive the Astros for coming out a little bit sluggish in this afternoon’s contest. Meanwhile, it’s reasonable to suggest the Mariners, who still have a postseason pulse, will enter the contest fresher and more focused behind George Kirby, who has a 3.38 ERA in four September starts.

Cubs under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
Phillies lefty Cristopher Sanchez has been dominant of late, posting a 2.17 ERA and .636 opponents’ OPS over his last 45.2 frames. He’s also a different pitcher at home (2.05 ERA vs. 5.02; 0.96 WHIP vs. 1.66; 8.1 K/9 vs. 6.8). The Cubs may find some external incentive in finishing ahead of the Cardinals, but they’ll have to do so away from Wrigley Field with their 39-41 road record.

Angels vs. White Sox under 8.5 runs (-110 at FanDuel)
The Angels are 2-11 against the spread over their last 13, while the White Sox have averaged 2.9 runs per game over that same span. Players are human, and it’s not unreasonable to consider that both teams include a number of players and coaches looking to get the season over with as quickly — and professionally — as possible. We’re fading deep counts and gritty at-bats between these two barrel-scraping ball clubs.

Royals moneyline (-118 at FanDuel)
The Royals are still stationed in the wild card race, and thus — or presumably — will enter play with a degree of mental focus and sharpness. The key for the Royals may be getting into the Nationals’ bullpen. Neither team has hit well of late, and the Royals have struggled against lefties this season (the Nats are starting southpaw DJ Herz). However, the Nationals have the game’s third worst bullpen in September, and we’re expecting that to be the difference tonight.

Giants +1.5 (-105 at ESPN BET)
Suggesting the D-backs are “reeling” may be a bit harsh, but they’re 5-5 over their last 10 and 11-11 in September — and their closest postseason contenders remain hot. The Giants aren’t a postseason contender, but they’re hot nonetheless, winning five straight and seven of 10. Arizona ace Zac Gallen has only pitched beyond the fifth inning in one of his last five starts, and the D-backs have the league’s worst bullpen in September.

Padres moneyline (+122 at FanDuel)
The Padres clinched a playoff berth last night and enjoyed themselves in the visiting clubhouse. And while we’re generally quick to fade teams coming off of such an emotional high, we’re looking at the Padres’ proximity to the Dodgers in the National League West. They’re only two games back and are throwing ace Dylan Cease, who has a 2.49 ERA in four September starts and game scores of 72 and 84 in his last two outings.

Will Rogers, Washington D Find Early Success in Big Ten

By Jack Dougherty

Thursday: Army vs. Temple over 45.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
It’s normally a sin to back the over in a game involving a service academy, but both offenses should be able to find success in this matchup. Army, unsurprisingly, leads the country in rushing yards per game (346.5), and Temple already gave up 297 rushing yards and 38 points to Navy earlier this season. The Owls have been much better on offense since switching to Evan Simon at quarterback, as they’ve scored 62 points in their last seven quarters played. 

(Friday Games)

Virginia Tech +19.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
No one wants to fade Miami right now, but that makes this the perfect time to do so. As good as Cam Ward has been for the Hurricanes, he’s prone to coughing up turnovers when under pressure. Well, Virginia Tech ranks fourth in the country in sack rate through four games. Miami hasn’t seen a quarterback like Kyron Drones, who can extend plays with his feet and has breakaway speed down the field. The Hokies will utilize a run-heavy attack and play ball control on offense, and they’ll be able to compete in this game if they can get consistent pressure on Ward.

Washington moneyline (+120 at DraftKings)
Rutgers has found success moving the ball on the ground through three games. The Scarlet Knights rank seventh in the country in rush play percentage and 18th in rushing yards per game, but that strategy likely won’t work as well against Washington. The Huskies rank 16th in the nation in opponent yards per rush and seventh in opponent yards per play. They’re going to make quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis beat them with his arm, and we’re not convinced he can do that. Will Rogers, on the other hand, has already proven he can. 

Sun Look to Knock Out Fever, Clark in Round 1 Elimination Game

By Chris Farley

Indiana Fever +6 (-105 at Bovada)
It would be easy to discount the Indiana Fever after what we saw on Sunday afternoon. They played well for the most part, maintaining a short deficit for most of the contest, but a feisty Connecticut defense took over late and outscored the visiting team 25-12 in the final quarter. Caitlin Clark had one of the worst games of her rookie season, shooting just 4-17 from the field and 2-13 from beyond the arc. But things tend to regress when motivation is high, and Indiana has consistently been one of the best offenses in the WNBA for the last two months. This is an elimination game if they lose, and there's a reason the spread is so low even after Sunday's blowout.

Fever vs. Sun over 164 points (-110 at Bookmaker)
In many ways the Fever and Sun are the antithesis of one another. Connecticut likes to play slow (ranked last in pace) and they're predicated on defense (ranked #1). The Fever, on the other hand, have blossomed into one of the WNBA's most exciting programs, ranked 1st in offense and tempo over the last month of action. Of course, Caitlin Clark is their greatest stimulant, averaging a whopping 23 points and 9 assists per game in her last 14 contests. If we think the Fever are going to make this a close game, it means they'll control more of the narrative, which means this showdown is destined for an inflation of points.

Cantlay and Schauffele are 3-0-0 in Foursomes in Presidents Cup Careers

By Jack Dougherty

Top point scorer: Patrick Cantlay (+1100 at FanDuel)
When looking at the top point scorer market for the Presidents Cup, you want to target golfers who will be on the course as much as possible. Patrick Cantlay has a chance to play in all five sessions because he and Xander Schauffele make up the most feared duo on Team USA. Cantlay and Schauffele are 3-0-0 in foursomes in their Presidents Cup careers as teammates, so they’ll likely be favored in every match they play. If the duo dominates like it’s supposed to, all Cantlay will need to do is win his singles match, and he’s one of the best in the world in those one-on-one situations. 

Top International point scorer: Min Woo Lee (+1200 at DraftKings)
We love Min Woo Lee’s upside at this event. The Australian is an elite birdie- and eagle-maker because he bombs it off the tee and can get scorching hot with the putter. For a team that’s lacking in the power department, the Internationals need Lee’s length off the tee to keep up with the big-hitting Americans. Lee has a big personality and never lacks in confidence, so he’s going to feed off the “home” crowd unlike any other player on the International side. 

Tournament foursomes winner: USA (-175 at DraftKings)
This is a ton of juice to lay in a market that could end in a tie, but this price still isn’t high enough. Team USA has dominated the foursomes portion of this event for years. Since 2007, the Americans have outscored the Internationals 56.5-23.5 in foursomes. Team USA has the alternate shot format down to a science. With duos such as Cantlay-Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler-Sam Burns and Collin Morikawa-Wyndham Clark at their disposal, the Americans should once against cruise in foursomes.

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