Are the Bills the NFL's Best Team Right Now?

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Bills Have Outscored Opponents 102-31 Since 1st Half in Week 1

By Chris Farley

6-Point Teaser: Vikings from +3 to +9, Bills from +2.5 to +8.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
The Bills have done nothing wrong this season. Sure, they've only faced average opponents (Arizona, Miami, Jacksonville), but Buffalo has made it look easy. Since the second half of their Week 1 contest against the Cardinals, Buffalo has outscored opponents 102-31. They're the #1 team in DVOA, Josh Allen is playing like a superstar, and their defense is better than advertised. The Vikings are their NFC twin. Brian Flores' schemes have mystified every opposing QB, Sam Darnold is playing out of his mind, and Green Bay's star QB is coming off an MCL injury. Teasing these squads up through three key-numbers (3, 6, 7) is simply too much value.

Steelers -1.5 (-109 at BookMaker)
Heavy-hitters in the betting industry talk about how this is a "great spot" for the Colts, but we're not buying it. In all three of their wins, Pittsburgh has managed to slow down, stifle, and eventually dominate opposing offenses. No defense has more top-3 rankings. Meanwhile, Justin Fields is playing more poised than we've ever seen and talking wonders about the Steelers' coaching staff. On Sunday they'll battle a Colts' team coming off a win against Chicago — a fortunate result. Chicago outgained Indianapolis by 89 yards, but too many turnovers killed their chances. Anthony Richardson a is making grave errors on easy reads. That will get better against TJ Watt and company? We think not.

Bears -3 (-105 at Bovada, FanDuel, DraftKings)
Speaking of the Bears, they might have the best "spot" all weekend. The L.A. Rams somehow pulled out a win at home against San Francisco last week, led by more Matthew Stafford heroics. This week paints a different scenario. The Bears' defense can only do so much when their offense sputters, but that should be less of a problem against an L.A. resistance that's allowed 5.1 yards per rush (28th) and 9.4 yards per pass (32nd). Even better, the home team boasts one of the most feared defenses in the NFL and the Rams' offense is still terribly beaten up, particularly their offensive line and wideouts.

Chargers +7 (-103 at BetOnline)
It took Jim Harbaugh more than a few seasons to win a national title as Michigan's head coach. It won't take as long in the NFL. Harbaugh is a culture-builder, a natural leader with a love for the game and the values it demands, and it's already working wonders in L.A. Sure, Justin Herbert is less than 100%, but the Chargers' defense has been lights out three weeks in a row, and they've established a dynamic rushing attack (152 ypg, 7th). Kansas City's offense isn't in rhythm, eking out wins in every battle so far, and Patrick Mahomes covers under 40% ATS as a favorite of -3.5 or more. This is what Jim Harbaugh-football is all about.

Cardinals -3.5 (-102 at DraftKings)
Jayden Daniels shocked survivor contestants all over the world by leading the Commanders to a big win at Cincinnati last Monday. The former LSU QB could not be stopped, never conceding his offense to a punt for all four quarters. They'll hope to build on that momentum in Week 4. The only problem? This is a short week, another road game, and Washington's defense is really, really poor. Kyler Murray, who looks as healthy as he did in his rookie season, is coming off a frustrating home loss, waiting all week to get back on the field. There's a reason this line hasn't moved all week: This is a premiere spot for the home team to flourish, and a horrible one for the visitors.

Commanders vs. Cardinals over 50.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)
This is one of our favorite bets of the week. Kyler Murray looks better than ever. In his second year back from an ACL tear, there's a clear difference in his speed and cutting ability. With a new, dynamic group of wide-receivers, led by rookie standout Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona is averaging 27.3 ppg after competing against some very good defenses. Washington's defense may be the worst in the NFL. Add the lethargy of a second-road game on a short week, and we're not sure if Washington will present any resistance at all. What we can count on is Jayden Daniels, who profiles as a superstar-in-the-making. This should be a really fun watch.

Browns vs. Raiders under 37 points (-105 at BetOnline)
The antithesis of the Commanders/Cardinals game is this barnburner. Gardner Minshew may be hoping for regression after a poor performance against the fired-up Panthers in Week 3, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen. Devante Adams is already pissed off and Vegas has no run game to speak of. Also pissed: the Cleveland defense, who somehow let the Giants score 21 points in the first half last Sunday. New York then cruised to a victory despite a scoreless second half thanks to more poor QB play by DeShaun Watson. Next up — the Browns' banged-up offensive line against Maxx Crosby and the Raiders' front. This has ugly 17-13 written all over it.

Labar: NHL's Newest Team is 'Unlike Anything Ever Done Before'

“The important thing to distinguish with the Utah Hockey Club is that it is unlike anything ever done before. That’s what I’ve learned the most about being a part of this process. The situation is so rare and extreme that we may not even have seen anything else like this in all of professional sports.” 

Emmy-Award winning TV broadcaster and newly announced TV analyst for Utah Hockey Club, Nick Olczyk, was bleeding passion through the phone when I spoke with him. A great friend of mine who has been around the game of hockey and the NHL for the bulk of his life, he took time this week amidst the chaos of the start of preseason to share some insights and perspective with me in regard to the newest organization in the NHL. 

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

Judge Has Homered in 5 Straight as He Closes in on 60

By Craig Williams

Cubs -1.5 (+150 at FanDuel)
The Cubs remain locked in a battle for second in the division with the St. Louis Cardinals, and we’ll search for any extra motivation at this stage of the season. Speaking more tangibly, the Cubs are outpacing the Red Birds offensively across a number of categories over the last week. And on the pitching side of things, Jameson Taillon has been stellar in four September starts: 1.08 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, .178 BAA; plus he owns a 2.37 home ERA.

Aaron Judge over 0.5 home runs (+240 at ESPNBET) 
Judge is absolutely locked in at the moment — he’s homered in five straight — and with 60 homers still within reach he has a personal milestone to chase even after the Yankees clinched the American League East. He’s slugging .689 against power pitchers this season, and the Pirates’ Jared Jones certainly belongs in that class. He has struggled of late though, allowing six home runs across his last 26.1 innings.

Tigers -1.5 (+130 at DraftKings)
The Tigers remain hot as a skillet and on the verge of punching an unlikely postseason ticket. On the surface their work is cut out for them tonight against breakout All-Star Garrett Crochet. However, Crochet has been a shell of himself since June 30, the last time he pitched more than four innings. He’s produced a 5.31 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and allowed an .801 OPS over that span of 13 starts.

Mets moneyline (-116 at FanDuel)
Instead of battling their nemesis Braves, the Mets will have the opportunity to punch a playoff ticket against the Brewers, who might place more emphasis on positioning themselves for a deep postseason run than going blow for blow with a hungry Mets team. Frankie Montas has been unlucky (4.56 ERA vs. 3.48 xFIP), but also has a 1.26 WHIP and 1.5 HR/9 since arriving in Milwaukee via trade.

Nationals under 3.5 runs (-142 at FanDuel)
Ranger Suarez has not been sharp in the second half, but there is some poor fortune baked into the equation (.340 BABIP, 3.81 xFIP). On the plus side, Suarez has been inducing lower percentages of hard contact in the second half, while the Nationals are only scoring 2.9 runs per game with a .272 wOBA in September.

Parlay: Blue Jays moneyline + under 8.5 total runs (+180 at DraftKings)
Jose Berrios has been dominant over his last eight starts, a span in which the Blue Jays are 7-1. He’s posted a 1.51 ERA and 0.88 WHIP while allowing a .246 wOBA and .197 BAA over his last 53.2 frames. Plus he enters with favorable home splits. The Marlins have been a bottom-third offense over the past couple of weeks, and their poor record over that span further underscores their offensive struggles. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have not been prolific offensively either, averaging 2.8 runs per game over their last six.

Angels under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-145 at DraftKings)
The Angels have given up. That’s the only way to explain being swept by the Chicago White Sox while scoring a total of five runs across three games. And with all due respect, if the Angels can’t manage to do more damage against the likes of Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, Mike Soroka, and Chris Flexen, they should be vaporized by Jacob deGrom, who worked his way up to 3.2 innings and 61 pitches in his second start back from Tommy John surgery.

Run-First UNLV Still Has Advantage this Weekend After QB NIL Drama

By Jack Dougherty

Kentucky vs. Ole Miss under 52.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Ole Miss has been an offensive juggernaut through four games. The Rebels lead the country in yards per game (637.3) and rank sixth in points per game (48.0), but it’s hard to be overly impressed when they’ve done it against Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest and Georgia Southern. This is a big step up in class against Kentucky, which held Georgia to 13 points and only 4.9 yards per play two weeks ago. We trust Ole Miss’ defense to shut down Brock Vandagriff, and the offense should come back to earth a bit against a real defense.

Louisville vs. Notre Dame under 46 points (-108 at DraftKings)
Don’t be fooled by Notre Dame’s 66-point outburst against Purdue two weeks ago. Riley Leonard threw for only 112 yards and no touchdowns, while the Fighting Irish went for 362 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. That strategy shouldn’t work as well against Louisville, which ranks 32nd in the country in yards per rush allowed (3.3). Notre Dame’s defense has been exceptional this season, but it likely won’t be able to pull away due to its limitations in the passing game.

UNLV moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)
UNLV has been the talk of college football all week after starting quarterback Matthew Sluka decided to leave the team over a $100,000 NIL dispute despite a 3-0 start. That caused the line against Fresno State to drop from -5 to -2.5, which is a severe overreaction considering Sluka was completing just 43.8% of his passes. The Rebels rank fourth in the country in run-play percentage through three games, so they could have just as much success moving the ball with dual-threat backup Hajj-Malik Williams. The difference between these teams is still bigger than this moneyline price indicates. 

Oklahoma vs. Auburn under 45.5 points (-111 at FanDuel)
Sensing a theme here? Speaking of injury reports, Oklahoma has already ruled out three wide receivers for this game. Leading receiver Deion Burks is also questionable to suit up, so good luck to true freshman Michael Hawkins in what will be his first career start on the road in a raucous SEC environment. On the other side, Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne went a combined 27-49 for 378 yards, three touchdowns and five interceptions against California and Arkansas, and Oklahoma has a better defense than both.

Georgia -1 (-108 at DraftKings)
This was a stay-away for most of the week, but now that the line has come crashing down from -3 to -1, it could be time to jump on the Bulldogs just to win the game. This line movement stemmed from Georgia’s injury report revealing running back Roderick Robinson, wide receiver London Humphreys and guard Tate Ratledge have been ruled out. We’ll take any discount we can get on the best team in the country, especially considering Georgia has the talent and depth to replace those starters without much dropoff. 

SMU -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Fading Florida State could be one of the most profitable betting strategies in college football all season. The Seminoles are 1-3 through four games, and they should’ve lost to Cal after getting outgained 410-284. D.J. Uiagalelei is completing 57.1% of his passes for only 6.7 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and three picks. This offense simply doesn’t have enough juice to hang with SMU, which just dropped 66 points on TCU last Saturday. 

Washington State vs. Boise State over 65 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Ok, fine. We’ll throw in an over for the people. This is a great matchup for a high-scoring game because both teams love to play fast and look to outscore their opponents. Defense is optional for Washington State and Boise State, as they rank 83rd and 120th, respectively, in points per game allowed. The Cougars have struggled to stop the run early in the season, and here comes Ashton Jeanty, who leads the nation with 586 rushing yards and nine rushing scores in only three games. This should be a fun one. 

Nicolas Jackson Starting Season Strong for Chelsea

By Sam Farley

Newcastle vs. Man City Draw (+350 at FanDuel)
It takes a brave person to bet against Man City, but this feels like a trap game for Pep Guardiola’s team. Man City have won at St James Park just once in their past three attempts in all competitions, and with news that star midfielder Rodri is out for the season, there’s no better time to look at the draw.

Arsenal to win + both teams to score (+170 at FanDuel)
Arsenal are one of the best teams in the Premier League, but they’ve given up a few goals recently. They allowed two to Man City last week and one to Bolton in the EFL Cup midweek. That wasn’t a full first team, but Leicester won’t sit back and defend — they’ll go on the attack. We’ve seen Both Teams to Score land in all five of Leicester’s games this season and it should here, although it likely won’t be enough to beat the Gunners.

Bukayo Saka over 0.5 Assists (+155 at FanDuel)
Bukayo Saka has been an assist machine so far this season for Arsenal. The 23-year old has five assists in five games. Given that Arsenal will be on the front foot against newly promoted Leicester, there’s a strong chance he can set up another teammate here.

West Ham to win (+220 at FanDuel)
The Premier League table doesn’t look kind to the Hammers, who come into the weekend 14th. They have a new manager bedding in a number of new signings, so it was always going to take time, but there’s real quality in the team. With Brentford losing three of their last four in the league, it’s now time for West Ham to start racking up wins.

Nicolas Jackson to score (+160 at FanDuel)
Last season Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson finished with 14 Premier League goals, but he frustrated at times and showed his inexperience often. This season he looks improved in Enzo Maresca’s attacking system and has already bagged four goals in five games (and is averaging 2.6 shots per game). Chelsea are creating chances in their games and we can finally back Jackson to put away the chances he’s given against Brighton.

Crystal Palace to win + both teams to score (+370 at FanDuel)
Everton have scored a goal per game on average but have given up 14 in just five games, tied for the most in the Premier League. Palace have more quality in their team and should win, but they’ve allowed the home team to score in both of their away games so far. Everton have been more attacking recently, so should score despite likely losing to the visitors.

Luis Diaz to score (+200 at FanDuel)
Mohamed Salah has been getting the headlines for Liverpool this season, but Luis Diaz looks like the perfect winger for new manager Arne Slot’s system. He’s quick and direct and has license to get into the opposition box. He’s started every game this season and has rewarded his team with five goals in five games. Given his consistency in front of goal it feels like the odds of +200 against Wolves, which imply a chance of 33.3% that he scores, are wrong.

(Sunday Match)

Aston Villa to win (-115 at FanDuel)
Ipswich are yet to win and it’s going to be a long, hard season for them. They spent a lot of money in the summer, but their squad is still lacking real Premier League level talent — especially compared with Aston Villa, who have two strong attackers in Ollie Watkins and Jhon Duran. Villa have won three on the spin and should win again against the newly promoted team.

Ollie Watkins to score or assist (-138 at Bet365)
In Watkins’ past three Premier League starts he’s either scored a goal or set one up for a teammate. He’s in strong form and facing a backline that were playing in the Championship last year. He should be involved in more goals again on Sunday.

(Monday Match)

Bournemouth to be winning at halftime (+110 at BetMGM)
Bournemouth head into the weekend 13th in the Premier League but that doesn’t really do them justice. They’ve been impressive at times. They’ve got a game against one of the favorites for relegation here and Bournemouth should start quickly, with Southampton losing both of their away games at halftime so far.

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