Mets vs. Braves in Pre-Playoffs Playoff and 2 MNF Games Again

In today’s newsletter…

The Mets and Braves play a doubleheader today because Hurricane Helene forced two games from last week to be rescheduled. This is no ordinary doubleheader, though, as both games have playoff implications. Here are the scenarios:

No matter what there will be a quick turnaround: The NL’s 6th seed will travel to Milwaukee for a 5:32pm (ET) start tomorrow and the 5th seed will fly across the country to play San Diego at 8:38pm (ET). So if the Braves win the first game, will they rest everyone for game 2 — since a loss wouldn’t change their seeding — and end up making it easier for their division rival to make the playoffs? We could find out.

In today’s newsletter, Jack is covering two Monday Night Football games and Chris has the WNBA playoffs and WTA tennis.

- Abe Rakov

Favored Lions are Undefeated Seahawks’ Best Opponent So Far

By Jack Dougherty

Titans vs. Dolphins under 37 points (-108 at DraftKings)
It’s tough to confidently predict the winner of this game considering all the uncertainty surrounding Miami’s offense, but that leads us to an under. Tyler Huntley has been named the starting quarterback after signing with the Dolphins only two weeks ago. In his five NFL starts over the last two seasons, the average finishing total of those games was just 25.6 points. On the other side, the Titans rank 28th in the NFL in yards per play (4.5) and 27th in points per game (16.0).

De’Von Achane over 23.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
In Huntley’s first start with his new team, head coach Mike McDaniel will likely scheme up some easy, short completions early on to get him in a groove. Achane should be a major part of that game plan, as he’s been an effective receiver out of the backfield all season. The electric running back is averaging 6.3 targets and 57.7 receiving yards per game through three weeks, clearing this line in all three games. 

Will Levis over 3.5 rushing attempts (-110 at DraftKings)
Tennessee needs to find a way to kickstart this offense, and using Levis more in the running game would be a good place to start. Levis served as the short-yardage rushing quarterback during his time at Penn State and recorded at least four rushing attempts in every game during his final year at Kentucky, so we know the dual-threat ability is there. He’s already rushed 11 times for 86 yards this season, so the Titans would be wise to get his legs more involved in the offense. 

Lions -4 (-112 at DraftKings)
Now’s the time to look at fading the Seahawks after a somewhat fluky 3-0 start. Seattle beat the Denver Broncos in Bo Nix’s first NFL start on the road, barely squeaked by the atrocious New England Patriots in overtime and crushed the undermanned Dolphins with Skylar Thompson running the show. This team probably isn’t as good as its record suggests, and the defense will be without Leonard Williams, Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu, Byron Murphy, Cameron Young and possibly Jerome Baker. Detroit’s offensive line should dominate this beat-up front seven and control the game. 

David Montgomery to score 2+ touchdowns (+470 at FanDuel)
If this game plays out like we expect, David Montgomery should have a big game on the ground. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is going to attack Seattle’s front seven and make the Seahawks’ backups prove they can fight off blocks and stop the run. Through three games, Montgomery has six carries and three touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line. The Lions should be visiting the red zone often, and Montgomery is their favorite weapon to use down by the goal line. 

Geno Smith over 34.5 passing attempts (-115 at FanDuel)
This is a correlated play based on how we see the game playing out. Geno Smith attempted 34 passes last week against the Dolphins even though the Seahawks held a comfortable lead for most of the game. He attempted 44 in Week 2 against the Patriots because it was a tight game throughout. With the Seahawks likely having to play from behind, they’ll need to air it out even more than they normally do. 

Noah Fant under 24.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Noah Fant played at least 75% of Seattle’s offensive snaps in the first two games of the season, but he dipped down to 44% in Week 3 with Pharaoh Brown active for the first time this year. Brown actually played more snaps than Fant against the Dolphins, and the Seahawks mixed in four tight ends throughout the game. Fant shouldn’t be able to replicate his six catches for 60 yards on six targets in Week 3 with this reduced workload. We’ll fade him coming off an abnormally busy game. 

Look for Aces to Turn to MVP to Save Series, Chance at Repeat Against Liberty

By Chris Farley

(Tuesday Games)

Aces +4.5 (-110 consensus)
The line currently sits at +4.5 but could move up; it might be better to wait. In any case, the Liberty beat the Aces again, which is what they've done all season, and they could almost do no wrong in Game 1. New York shot an absurd 50% from the floor, a rarity in any WNBA game let alone the postseason, and shot a ridiculous 42% from beyond the arc. Vegas just couldn't keep up. But many of their stars played well and other than the first quarter, it was an evenly-fought contest. With their backs against the wall, we can't fade the reigning champions.

Aces vs. Liberty under 164 points (-112 at DraftKings and BetOnline)
We have one big reason for looking at this line and that could be enough, specifically that we project considerable regression from New York's offense. Luckily, we have plenty of other reasons, too. First, Las Vegas knows how to step up and play defense when they need to (top-5 all season). This is also a crucial game in a best-of-five series. If the visitors lose and go down 0-2, their chances to move on to another WNBA Final greatly decreases. At inflection points of Game 1, in the second and fourth quarters, we saw low scoring. That's the pace we project for all four quarters.

A'ja Wilson over 23.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
We've already mentioned it a few times, but the Aces are at a very crucial point in this series. New York has owned Las Vegas all season and the underdogs need to break up the monotony. They turn to one woman when that's the case. A'Ja Wilson had a nice Game 1, scoring 21 points on 9-16 from the field, but that's light work compared to what she usually produces (26.9 ppg). Vegas did their best to spread the ball around on Sunday; we expect a return to form, aka more reliance on their star.

Lynx -5 (-108 at DraftKings)
One may wonder why Minnesota is the favorite after losing to the Sun in Game 1, but we could argue this spread isn't high enough. The Lynx were 3.5-point favorites on Sunday and caught rhythm in the second quarter, gaining a 5-point lead heading into the fourth. It was Connecticut's stingy defense that held the Lynx to just eight points in the final quarter. Still, Connecticut only won by three points, and that's in a contest where Minnesota's star, Napheesa Collier, didn't play up to par (7-16, 19 points). Look for Minny to explode at home.

Sun vs. Lynx under 151 points (-112 at DraftKings)
The tempo of Sunday's first battle was extremely slow (88). By comparison, the average WNBA tempo is 95.7 (quantified based on possessions per game). This makes sense considering that these squads are rated 1st and 2nd, respectively, in defensive efficiency. While we expect the Lynx to come out aggressively in an effort to tie the series, that doesn't necessarily mean more points on the scoreboard. If anything, Connecticut's outlier opening quarter and insane 41% hit-rate from beyond the arc are massive regression candidates. We love another low-scoring, defensive affair.

Pegula and Badosa Set for Rematch in Beijing After 26-Game Battle in Cinci Last Month

By Chris Farley

Jessica Pegula vs. Paula Badosa over 21.5 games (-125 at DraftKings)
Jessica Pegula and Paula Badosa have been fantastic on hard courts this season, each winning nearly 3/4ths of their matches on the surface. Beijing offers another backdrop for both competitors to build off that prowess, a battle that we doubt will go easily for either woman. A month ago in Cincinnati, Pegula won a 3-set war that lasted 26 games versus Badosa, but Badosa had just won the Citi Open, so regression was likely. Now, both women are coming off nearly a month of rest and their last two meetings have gone over this total. We expect three in a row.

Naomi Osaka wins 2-1 (+380 at DraftKings)
Tennis fans may remember an inspiring moment 5 years ago when a 15-year-old Coco Gauff joined Naomi Osaka in an interview after their first battle at the U.S. Open. That formed a bond between the two competitors. Since then the two are 2-2 against one another. Both women have performed well since making coaching changes recently, creating a matchup that projects to go three sets — since we expect neither to relent. Osaka has won in China before, and we like her recent momentum to mean a seminal win as she returns to form. Gauff hasn't looked the same all year.

Looking Back at Sunday’s Games by the Numbers

By Abe Rakov

The NFL is down to three undefeated teams, with the Seahawks still to play tonight, and two winless teams, with the Titans looking for their first win tonight. Here are some highlights from Week 4 from NFL Next Gen Stats:

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