Big U.S. Open Matchups + NFL is Finally Here Tomorrow

In today’s newsletter…

It’s finally time. The NFL is back. Well, it will be tomorrow at 8:20pm when the Ravens face the Chiefs in Kansas City on NBC. You can check out our quick guide to every game on our website (we’ll do a version of this every week).

In today’s issue, Chris is covering the NFL opener and Friday’s game in Brazil, Jack has Friday’s college football games and a couple futures, and Craig takes a look at today’s MLB slate. We also have U.S. Open quarterfinal matchups.

- Abe Rakov

Lamar Jackson Averaged 211 Passing Yards Per Game Last Season, Faces Tough Chiefs’ D in Week 1

By Chris Farley

Chiefs -3 (+100 at Bookmaker)
The addition of powerhouse RB Derrick Henry is an intimidating x-factor, but Baltimore's WR depth is too shallow and we hate the changes made on their offensive line (they lost three starters). They also lost stalwart linebacker Patrick Queen and defensive guru Mike Macdonald. The Chiefs are made for these big moments and Arrowhead will be rocking for the opener. Xavier Worthy, the rookie who ran a record 4.21 40-yard dash, only adds to an offense due for massive positive regression this season — and Kansas City's defense is as formidable as any in the NFL. Andy Reid is 9-2 in openers as Chiefs' head-coach. We like them to pull away late.

Lamar Jackson under 218.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Todd Monken's scheme in year 1 with Baltimore produced a high-quality offense, one that ranked 4th in points (27.7) and 6th in yards per game (367.6) in the 2023 season. Yet, even with those top-tier marks, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' passing-attack only averaged 211 yards per game. While the addition of Derrick Henry will aid a rushing offense that was the best in the NFL a year ago (1st in rushing attempts/yards per game), Chris Jones and a talented Kansas City defense were one of the best in the NFL last season against the pass. With a depleted offensive line and mediocre targets at WR, it will be a struggle for Jackson to hit the 200 mark through the air.

Packers moneyline (+120 at FanDuel and Bookmaker)
The Eagles remain one of the most talented offenses in the NFL. Saquon Barkley joins an already lethal group of skill-position players that surround Jalen Hurts, which should continue to cause headaches for opposing defenses. The Philly defense, however, is a different story. Long-time defensive guru Vic Fangio joins as the Eagles' coordinator after a tough year in 2023, which brings some hope for the Birds, but they also enter week one with their worst group of edge-rushers in a decade. Jordan Love, who's already getting disrespected by oddsmakers, should have plenty of time to slice and dice the Eagles' resistance, and we trust Matt LaFleur's game plan over anything Nick Sirianni can offer.

Jordan Love over 256.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Speaking of Jordan Love, the Packers' second-year starter is just 12 months removed from every other NFL analyst selling his stock as a franchise QB. Needless to say, no one's doubting him anymore. The Eagles' defense allowed a 3rd-worst 255.7 yards per game through the air last season, and we're not convinced much will change. Vic Fangio is not known for sending extra guys on blitzes, which will put pressure on the interior defensive line of Philly. Love should be very comfortable in the pocket, and his chemistry with coach Matt LaFleur was on full display in big spots last year. We love that to continue into Week 1.

Yankees’ Stroman has averaged six innings with a 2.50 ERA over his last three starts

By Craig Williams

Phillies vs. Blue Jays under 8 runs (-112 at FanDuel)
Phillies lefty Cristopher Sanchez pitched very well in August — his poor start against the red-hot Diamondbacks notwithstanding — and faces the Blue Jays, who enter play with a .671 OPS against southpaws. Meanwhile, prior to scoring 10 runs last night, the Phillies had been quiet with the lumber; and Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis enters with a 1.06 ERA, 0.38 WHIP, and .081 BAA over his last 34 innings.

Orioles -1.5 first 5 innings (-105 at DraftKings)
The White Sox’s futility extends beyond stats and metrics at this point, and we’re going to keep picking on them. Orioles starter Albert Suarez posted a 1.97 ERA in August and enters tonight’s start with a 2.45 ERA at home. And he’ll toe the rubber against a team that has scored 12 total runs with a .195 batting average across their last eight games.

Orioles over 5.5 runs (+110 at FanDuel)
The Orioles are averaging six runs per game with a .339 wOBA over their last eight. White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon is likely in for a long night — or a short one depending on your perspective. He enters play with a 6.31 ERA in August, and he simply allows too many hits, walks, and home runs to feel confident in him — and his teammates — holding the Orioles below six runs.

Yankees over 4.5 runs (+100 at DraftKings)
The Yankees average 5.3 runs on the road and are considerably more productive against right-handed pitchers (.796 OPS). They’re facing off against Texas right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, who they beat on August 10. Eovaldi does pitch better at home, but he produced a 4.50 ERA in August. The Yankees have gone over this number in four of five overall and in their last five games against right-handed starters.

Marcus Stroman over 17.5 outs (-119 at Caesars)
We’re looking beyond the stats to kick off this play. It’s common to see a starting rotation get hot and individual starters feed off one another. Gerrit Cole played the role of stopper a game before Carlos Rodon tossed a gem. Stroman is already hyper competitive, and we’re buying the added juice he may feel as he tries to match his teammates in a rubber game. More tangibly, Stroman has averaged six innings with a 2.50 ERA over his last three starts, and enters tonight with a 2.56 road ERA.

Royals under 4.5 runs (-132 at FanDuel)
There’s still time for the Royals to right the ship, but it appears as if their bubble burst after nearly overtaking the Guardians in the division. They’ve lost seven straight, scoring a meager 2.4 runs per game over that span. The Guardians, meanwhile, have won three straight as they’ve taken a firm grip on the AL Central lead. Guardians starter Ben Lively hasn’t been consistent of late, but we trust him to tame a struggling Royals lineup.

Dodgers over 5.5 runs (-115 at FanDuel)
The Angels’ poor play has been overshadowed, but they are one of the worst teams in baseball — especially at home where they’re 29-42 and allow 4.6 runs per game. Angels starter Griffin Canning has been especially hittable this season, and he enters tonight’s start with a 5.14 ERA at home. The Dodgers are 7-3 over their last 10, averaging 6.3 runs per game over that stretch, and going over 5.5 in six of seven. 

SMU QB Looks to Shake Off Slow Start to Season in Matchup Against BYU

By Jack Dougherty

(Friday Games)

BYU +10.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Preston Stone entered the season with sky-high expectations after throwing for 3,197 and 28 touchdowns in 2023, but it’s been a slow start for the SMU signal-caller. The redshirt junior went just 17-30 with one touchdown and one interception in a near-loss against Nevada, and he attempted only nine passes in a blowout win over Houston Christian. We need to see something from Stone before we can trust him to cover a double-digit spread against a physical team like BYU. The Cougars can put up points and keep this close. 

Northwestern vs. Duke under 36.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
This is one of the lowest totals you’ll see in college football all season, but the under is still the play. Manny Diaz and Dave Braun are two defensive-minded head coaches who aren’t afraid to win a race to 17. Duke scored only 26 points and averaged just 5.2 yards per play against Elon last week, while Northwestern managed only 13 points in a narrow win against Miami (Ohio). Neither offense should have much success moving the ball through the air, and the few red zone drives we see are most likely going to stall with field-goal attempts. 

Duke moneyline (+130 at Bet365)
In what should be a low-scoring game, the underdog with the better quarterback seems to be a valuable play. Maalik Murphy was a four-star recruit who started his career at Texas, and he showed some promise with 291 passing yards and two touchdowns last week. Mike Wright, on the other hand, was never an effective passer at Vanderbilt or Mississippi State. He doesn’t take shots down the field and tucks the ball to scramble whenever there’s pressure, so Duke should be able to generate more explosive plays down the field. 

(Futures)

Miami (FL) to make the College Football Playoff (+100 at FanDuel)
One of the biggest winners of Week 1, Miami dominated Florida from start to finish in a 41-17 rout. Transfer quarterback Cam Ward exceeded expectations with 385 yards passing and three touchdowns, and the offensive and defensive lines looked like some of the best groups in the country. Most importantly, the ACC looks like a dumpster fire so far. Miami will be a favorite in at least 10 of its remaining 11 games, giving them a clear path to the conference championship. By that point, the Hurricanes might not even have to win the ACC to punch their ticket to the CFP. 

Carson Beck to win the Heisman Trophy (+900 at DraftKings)
Carson Beck looked every bit like a top NFL draft pick in Week 1, throwing for 278 yards and two touchdowns on 69.7% passing against Clemson. Georgia, which was missing several key players in the game, still demolished the Tigers to prove it’s the team to beat in college football. The Heisman Trophy is just as much about team success as it is about individual stats, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Bulldogs ran the table in the SEC. Beck threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 24 touchdowns last season. He should be able to improve upon those numbers with more experience under his belt.

Heavyweight Battle in U.S. Open Quarters Could Go the Distance

By Chris Farley

Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev goes 5 sets (+230 at DraftKings)
Daniil Medvedev has played nearly perfect tennis in New York. The 28-year-old Russian knocked out Jannik Sinner in the last Grand Slam tournament, a 5-set banger in London, and he's only conceded one set in four matches at the U.S. Open. Jannik Sinner owned Medvedev the last two years leading up to their Wimbledon battle, earning five straight wins before that defeat. The Italian has been lights out since one bad opening set in Flushing, including a 3-0 win against the challenging Tommy Paul two days ago. This should be another heavyweight war, one that we feel is destined to go the distance.

Jessica Pegula over Iga Swiatek (+285 at FanDuel)
If there's any opportunity for Jessica Pegula to finally go the distance at the U.S. Open, this is it. The American has been rounding into her best form for a month. She won the Canadian Open in early August, and so far in New York she hasn't dropped a set. Even the ice cold Diana Shnaider, who looked to be a very formidable challenger in the Round of 16, fell swiftly to Pegula. Iga Swiatek has made no mistakes in New York, either, and she only seems to be getting better with every match. Pegula’s placement and poise just feel different this time around, and we know Swiatek can get shaken up if she has to battle hard early. Expect a long affair; the value is on the American.

In the News

What to Watch

Photo of the Day