Analyzing NFL Week 1 Betting Lines

In today’s newsletter…

The NFL will forever be a game of inches, and the season kicked off last night with a game decided by a toe. The reversal of Ravens’ wide receiver Isaiah Likely’s would-have-been touchdown catch as time expired gave the NFL the kind of drama it loves and delivers week after week.

The Chiefs had Lamar Jackson on the run all night, as he scrambled at his third-highest rate (19.5%) in a single game since 2021 — 10 times for 75 yards. He completed only one pass off a scramble, but it was a big one: A 49-yard touchdown strike to Likely on the first play of the fourth quarter to cut Kansas City’s lead to three.

In this issue of the newsletter, Chris takes on the Week 1 NFL slate, Jack is covering tomorrow’s college football action, Craig analyzes today’s MLB matchups, and Sam has soccer from South America to Europe. In her weekly column, Abby talked to sports analysts about the NFL games they are most looking forward to this week. Enjoy the weekend!

- Abe Rakov

P.S. Remember to check out the game-by-game breakdown of every NFL matchup this week on our website.

Rookie QBs Take Center Stage in Week 1

By Chris Farley

Bears team total under 24.5 points (-118 at FanDuel)
Perceptions are rightfully high on #1 draft pick Caleb Williams and the future of the Chicago Bears, but some of these lines are getting out of hand. The Bears were ranked 19th in points per game (21.2) and 24th in yards per play (5) last season. Of course their roster is different in 2024, but there's something to be said about cultural failure. Betting on Chicago's offense becoming immediately efficient is a dangerous assumption. Sure, they added D'Andre Swift, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, another top-10 pick. These are all reasons to feel good about their future. For now, it's only Week 1, and the Titans still have plenty of veteran studs on defense (including the newly signed cornerback, L'Jarius Sneed). 

Steelers +3.5 (-112 at FanDuel and DraftKings)
Steelers bettors might still remember their fate last year in Week 1, believing that Pittsburgh could cover and possibly beat the 49ers. They got walloped, 30-7. While that might still be fresh in our memories, this scenario is entirely different. Kirk Cousins hasn't played a single snap with his brand-new team. Matthew Judon was a good addition but he's aging and coming off an injury-year. Atlanta's coaching staff is completely new. Meanwhile, the entire world is doubting and damning the Steelers, again, even though they'll start a Super Bowl-winning QB and they have the best player on the field (TJ Watt and it's not close). Oh yeah, and all Mike Tomlin does is WIN.

Patriots team total under 15.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)
Forgive us for being so short, but how are the Patriots going to score points? The answer: Jacoby Brissett, according to some. Brissett makes his return to the place where his journeyman stardom began, replacing Tom Brady for the Pats when the GOAT was suspended in 2016. Brissett is a stabilizer, the kind of thrower who can will his team against average defenses in desperate situations — with the right skill-players around him. None of those things are true in this case. The Patriots have the most shallow offense in the NFL, they'll be on the road surrounded by a raucous crowd, and Cincinnati's defense should be much improved.

Giants moneyline (+110 at BetOnline)
There are many reasons to fade the Giants, always. Daniel Jones already showed why no one can trust him in his first preseason start, turning it over multiple times because of more bad decision-making. Same old story. New York also got rid of the beloved Saquon Barkley, and HBO's Hard Knocks only made us question their staff even more. On the other hand, Malik Nabers is clearly the real-deal, Jones is playing for his career, the Giants have elite talent on their defensive line, and Brian Daboll was AP Coach of the Year just 20 months ago. Few teams went through as much transition as the Minnesota Vikings, and they're entering Week 1 as road chalk? We think not.

Cowboys moneyline (+120 at BetOnline, Bovada, and Bookmaker)
Perception on the Cowboys and Browns couldn't be more different. Everyone is selling Dallas' stock, turned off by their poor negotiations with CeeDee Lamb and the letdown of a less-than-inspiring offseason. The Browns enter this season coming off the hype of AP Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski, loaded offensive and defensive lines, and what Cleveland fans hope is the new era of DeShaun Watson. The problem is that Watson was terrible in 2023, racking up just over 200 yards per game and four INTs in 5.5 games. We'll need to see proof that he's somehow improved. Meanwhile, we promise: Dallas knows everyone is doubting them, and they still have plenty of star-talent. I smell an "upset."

Commanders moneyline (+155 at BetOnline)
The Buccaneers were really impressive last year. They also got a little lucky. Baker Mayfield is the main reason they notched a Wildcard victory. He was the perfect fit for a workhorse team of mostly aging veterans, and he helped Tampa earn wins in 5 out of their last 6 games. But it's important to remember that they were a 4-7 team. The programs they beat in December and January, including Philly, were a mess. Washington enters Week 1 with a highlight-reel rookie QB who has only had glowing report cards, and a new, tough-minded defensive guru in Dan Quinn as their new coach. Stock is rising in DC, and we think Jayden Daniels can work his magic against a resistance that's slowing down.

Labar: Our Favorite NFL Matchups of the Week

My windows are open to feel the brisk 60 degree weather, my fall candle is lit, Sportscenter is on in the background and I’m sipping on, dare I say it…a pumpkin spice latte (haters just don’t want to admit they love them too). Man, do I love football season. The 2024 previews and the controversial takes are flooding my social media pages, so as we dive head first into Week One with the cleanest slate of them all, I thought we’d have some fun with the matchups that people are looking forward to the most.

Now technically speaking I asked the “experts,” but these are more-so industry friends who come from covering a variety of sports (outside of the one friend who is on reality TV, but I thought I’d really mix it up ya know?) Let’s face it, whether you’re a die hard or not, any sports fan/broadcaster has some sort of an eye on the NFL.  

Read Abby Labar’s full column at Sportmoney.com

Cy Young Favorite Skubal has Good Matchup for Strikeouts Tonight

By Craig Williams

Rays +0.5 first 5 innings (-128 at FanDuel)
Rays starter Shane Baz is coming off of a strong August in which he pitched well against the Padres and the Astros (2x). The Orioles certainly present a tough test, but we’re going to ride with the talented Baz, who has yet to allow a home run on the road. Meanwhile, the Rays will face Dean Kremer, who has a 4.69 ERA since July 3, and 4.81 ERA at home.

Orioles moneyline (-134 at FanDuel)
We like how Baz is performing, and we’re fading Kremer to an extent. However, we still like the Orioles to prevail in the end. They’re averaging 5.2 runs per game over their last 10, and they’re 41-31 at home overall. Even if Baz pitches well, he will eventually hand the ball off to a bullpen that has struggled mightily in recent weeks.

Red Sox -1.5 (-130 at ESPNBet)
We can forgive the Red Sox for their recent five-game skid considering they ran into a white-hot Mets team and AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal across that span. We’re going to continue fading the White Sox, who are 10-21 following a win and 14-55 on the road. The Red Sox, for their part, are bizarrely poor at Fenway Park (31-38), but sometimes the best thing to wash down a rough road trip is some home cooking.

Astros -0.5 first 5 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
It’s reasonable to categorize tonight’s Astros-Diamondbacks tilt as a heavyweight bout. The Diamondbacks are still swinging a hot bat, but we’re backing lefty Framber Valdez. The Astros have won 11 of Valdez’s last 12 turns, a span in which he’s struck out 10.6 K/9, and produced a 1.02 WHIP, and .248 wOBA. They’re also 39-29 with a plus-67 run differential at home, so we like them to start strong en route to ending their three-game skid.

Framber Valdez over 5.5 strikeouts (-144 at FanDuel)
Valdez’s current form makes him the perfect candidate to play the role of stopper for the ‘Stros. We’re not necessarily banking on him to mow through the Diamondbacks, who have struck out at a modest 22.8% clip over their last 10. However, Valdez has produced a 34.1% strikeout rate over his last 34 innings, and he’s delivered length — he completed at least six innings in seven of his last 10 starts. The combination of those two trends suggest six strikeouts is attainable.

Tarik Skubal over 7.5 strikeouts (-120 at FanDuel)
We’re riding with the American League Cy Young favorite in Skubal. The Athletics are hitting well of late (5.3 R/G over last 10), but they’re also whiffing at a 25.7% rate over that span. It’s reasonable to anticipate length from Skubal — over his last 12 starts, he logged at least six innings 10 times and seven frames six times. He’s also recorded at least eight strikeouts eight times. We’re not sweating Skubal on the road either (2.18 ERA).

Tigers vs. Athletics under 7 runs (-110 at FanDuel)
We went into some detail on Skubal, and we like him to do his part to keep the Athletics in check. We’re not going to oversell Athletics starter Mitch Spence, but he’s pitched well enough in spurts this summer, and has favorable home splits. The Tigers are averaging 3.5 runs per game over their last 10, and will play tonight’s contest in an especially pitcher-friendly environment.

Dylan Raiola Poised for Big Game Against Weak Colorado Secondary

By Jack Dougherty

Donovan Edwards 70+ rushing yards (+220 at DraftKings)
Donovan Edwards had a rough debut as Michigan’s starting running back with just 27 rushing yards on 11 attempts against Fresno State, but that’s creating some value on his rushing props against Texas. The Longhorns lost defensive linemen T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy to the NFL, and their absence was evident last week when Colorado State’s Justin Marshall ran all over them for 106 yards. This is going to be a run-heavy game plan from Michigan, and it needs to get Edwards going early to have a chance. 

Syracuse +3 (-110 at Caesars)
It’s overreaction season in college football, and one team the market is overrating early in the season is Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets cracked the AP Poll at No. 23 after upsetting Florida State and beating Georgia State at home, but we know now the Seminoles aren’t a good football team. Georgia Tech hasn’t been tested yet by a capable quarterback. Well, here comes Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord, who threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns for Syracuse against Ohio in Week 1. Syracuse can win this game outright.

Iowa State at Iowa over 35 points (-110 at BetMGM)
This matchup is normally an under bettor’s dream. The battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy has gone under the total in 17 of the last 19 meetings, but 10 of those 19 reached at least 37 points. The market has adjusted a bit too much. Iowa also looks like a different team on offense after racking up 492 yards and 40 points against Illinois State in Week 1. This won’t be a fun one to sweat out, but the total looks a few points too low. 

Appalachian State +17 (-110 at BetMGM)
You might think this is the perfect time to back Clemson in a bounce-back spot after getting throttled by Georgia, but it’s not easy to get up for a game seven days later after taking a beating like that. Teams normally come out slow the week after playing such a physical team like the Bulldogs, and Appalachian State won’t be afraid to air it out with Joey Aguilar. It’s also hard to trust Cade Klubnik and this offense to cover a big number after what we saw in Week 1. 

Utah -14.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Baylor Bears aren’t prepared for what awaits them at Rice-Eccles Stadium, the site of one of the best home-field advantages in college football. Most notably, this is a huge test for Toledo transfer quarterback DeQuan Finn, who’s played his entire college career in half-empty MAC stadiums. Utah is going to come after Finn early and should force him into mistakes, while veteran QB Cam Rising can exploit this Baylor secondary down the field. Look for the Utes to jump out to an early lead and never look back.

Dylan Raiola 300+ passing yards (+475 at DraftKings)
If Nebraska watched any of Colorado’s opener against North Dakota State, the Cornhuskers are going to air it out against this abysmal secondary. North Dakota State wants to pound the rock and play ball control, but quarterback Cam Miller was able to rack up 277 yards on 18-22 passing because his wide receivers were running uncovered all night. The Buffaloes won’t be able to fix their coverage issues in one week, so Raiola should have a big game through the air. 

Dillon Gabriel 4+ passing touchdowns (+120 at DraftKings)
Oregon put up only 24 points against Idaho last week, but the offense still showed signs of being a dynamic passing unit. Gabriel went 41-49 for 380 yards and two touchdowns in the game. He’s going to air it out again against a Boise State defense that allowed Georgia Southern to rack up 461 yards of offense and 45 points last week. This is a prime get-right game for Oregon, and considering its team total is set at 41.5, the market is expecting a touchdown frenzy from the Ducks. Gabriel should be a big part of that. 

International Break Brings UEFA Nations League and World Cup Qualifying Action
By Sam Farley

France -2 (+480 at FanDuel)
This is the weakest Italian team in the last half century. At the back they are okay, but in midfield and especially in attack they are very poor. Compare that with France, who are stacked with elite talent at every single position. The French will want to start strong at home in their first game after Euro 2024 disappointment. They should take Italy apart here.

Belgium -1 (-120 at Bet365)
We saw Belgium struggle at Euro 2024, but they’re still superior to an Israeli team who failed to make the competition. Israel has only played one competitive game this year, getting thumped 4-1 by Iceland as they fought for a place at the Euros. Belgium will be looking to start this new cycle well and should win by a couple of goals at home.

Lois Openda to score (+130 at Bet365)
Romelu Lukaku has been granted some leave from the international team during this window so that he can stay at Napoli and build up match fitness following his move from Chelsea. That opens the door up to Lois Openda, who is likely to get the start down the middle. He’s scored two in two games for RB Leipzig this season, and the 24-year old will be looking to stake a claim for a permanent starting spot here.

Uruguay/Uruguay – Halftime/Fulltime (+137 at Bet365)
The Uruguayans have been playing brilliantly of late. They sit second in qualifying for the World Cup, winning four of their six games — with a loss and a tie to their name too. Paraguay have only picked up one win and will struggle on the road to a talented Uruguay team.

Brazil to win to nil (+120 at Bet365)
Brazil were poor at this year’s Copa America, where they exited at the quarterfinal stage after a defeat to Uruguay on penalties. They put up blanks in two of their four games but defensively were strong, conceding just two goals all tournament. Against an Ecuador team averaging less than a goal scored per game, they should be able to keep a clean sheet and secure the three points with a goal or two.

(Saturday Match)

England -1 (+125 at BetRivers)
It’s a new era for the England national team with Gareth Southgate having departed. He’s been replaced by Lee Carsley on an interim basis, who has been managing the England Under-21 team. That youth team won the U21 Euros last year, playing some scintillating soccer. Against a terrible Irish team there’s a real chance that Carsley’s Lions could put on a real show.

Harry Kane to score (+132 @ BetRivers)
It was a disappointing Euros for Harry Kane, who struggled to reach the standards expected of him, but the England captain still scored three times in the tournament. He has started this Bundesliga season strong too, with a goal and assist to his name after two games. He’s the top scorer in his country’s history and is certain to start the game against a leaky Irish defense.

(Sunday Matches)

Denmark to win (-135 at BetMGM)
In their Euro 2024 match Denmark and Serbia finished 0-0, but it was dominated by the Danes, who had more possession, double Serbia’s five shots and three times as many on target. They come into this match following an impressive 2-0 win over Switzerland on Thursday.

Ronaldo to score (-125 at Borgata)
On Thursday we saw the Portuguese play Croatia, and Cristiano Ronaldo scored the 900th goal of his career and the 131st for his country. There’s plenty of debate around whether he holds his team back or not, but one thing is certain, he frequently scores. Scotland are a good team but the 39 year old’s hunger for goals is insatiable.  

(Monday Match)

Austria to win (+200 at Bet365)
On Monday we see the Austrians face Norway, and you can get Ralf Rangnick’s team at a big price to win. Norway have Martin Odegaard and Erling Haaland in their ranks, but beyond that their starting lineup is poor. Austria, who were the surprise package at Euro 2024 and arguably the best team behind winners Spain, should be able to get the job done.

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