Aaron Rodgers to Make Second Debut with Jets Tonight

In today’s newsletter…

How is everyone feeling on the first Monday after an NFL Sunday in a while? Based on the tired faces on NYC subway this morning and the higher percentage of sunglasses being worn inside than normal, people seemed to enjoy having football back this weekend. Here are some Week 1 highlights, courtesy of NFL Next Gen Stats:

In today’s newsletter, Jack has the Jets vs. 49ers Monday Night Football matchup, Craig is covering today’s MLB slate and Chris is tracking tomorrow’s WNBA games.

- Abe Rakov

Aaron Rodgers’ Second Debut for Jets Could Start Slow

By Jack Dougherty

49ers -2.5 1st half (-125 at DraftKings)
There’s a ton of hype surrounding the Jets to start the season. Don’t get us wrong — we like New York long-term if Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy, but it might not look pretty out of the gates. Rodgers didn’t play a single snap in the preseason, so he’s coming in cold after a full year away from the field. Oh, and let’s not forget he’s 40 years old. We just saw Kirk Cousins put up a stinker in a new offense in his first game back from a torn Achilles, so Rodgers and the Jets could come out slow. 

Aaron Rodgers under 235.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Sensing a theme here? Fading a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a major injury seems like a great idea to start the season. It’s hard to imagine this offense clicking right away, especially considering the starters didn’t see any reps in the preseason. Passing totals were also down across the league in Week 1. Of the 24 starting quarterbacks we saw on Sunday, only three went over this line. If Rodgers beats us in his first full game in 20 months, we’ll tip our cap.

Mike Williams under 2.5 receptions (-110 at DraftKings)
Mike Williams is going to provide Rodgers with a dangerous deep threat this season, but he might not light up the stat sheet in Week 1. Jets head coach Robert Saleh said Williams will be on a snap count early in the year as he works his way back from the ACL injury he suffered in 2023. Williams’ receiving yards prop is scary because he could go over with one long catch, but he may not see enough usage to surpass his receptions prop. 

Deebo Samuel anytime touchdown (+165 at FanDuel)
Deebo Samuel was San Francisco’s favorite red-zone weapon outside of Christian McCaffrey last season. The speedy wide receiver saw a team-high 18 targets inside the 20-yard line and turned them into 12 catches and three touchdowns. He also saw nine red-zone carries and scored four times on the ground. Brandon Aiyuk missed a ton of time in the preseason and McCaffrey was on the injury report all week, so Samuel should be heavily involved in Monday night’s game plan.

Orioles Turn to Rookie Pitcher as they Try to Keep Pace with Yankees

By Craig Williams

Paul Skenes over 17.5 outs recorded (-128 at FanDuel)
Skenes has gone over this number in three of his last five starts. The two unders came against the Chicago Cubs, who were seeing Skenes for the third and fourth time this season. This will be the Marlins’ first time seeing Skenes. They’ve averaged 5.1 runs per game over their last seven, but we’re fading that uptick in offense on account of their .335 BABIP over that span. Also, they’re 26-42 and average the league’s second fewest runs on the road.

Royals +0.5 first 5 innings (-104 at FanDuel)
The Royals have won four in a row and allowed a total of three runs over that span. Kansas City and Brady Singer have not performed as well on the road, but we’re leaning into their hot streak — particularly on the pitching side. Quality starting pitching performances can be contagious, and we expect Singer and the Royals to be locked in early against the Yankees in the Bronx.

Yankees vs. Royals under 4.5 first runs 5 innings (-115 at DraftKings)
The Yankees, like the Royals, are in the midst of a string of hot pitching performances. That includes Carlos Rodon (8-2, 3.08 ERA, .196 BAA), who has been dominant at home and produced a gamescore of at least 64 in three of his last five starts. The Yankees have struggled enough with the bats in recent series for us to be comfortable anticipating a low-scoring contest until the bullpens are called into action.

Mets moneyline (-112 at FanDuel)
The Mets are coming off a 3-1 loss, their first in nine games. They’re 35-29 following a loss overall, and they’ve been especially resilient of late, recording a win after each of their last seven defeats. Paul Blackburn’s overall numbers since joining the Mets are ugly, but he earned a 60-plus gamescore in three of his five starts since the tradeline. The Mets are 38-31 with a plus-23 run differential on the road, compared to the Blue Jays’ 34-35, minus-49 run differential record at home.

Braves -0.5 first 5 innings (-114 at FanDuel)
This comes down to the Braves being in the thick of a playoff race and having more to play for than the Reds. The energy at Truist Park will reflect that, even on a Monday night. Neither Charlie Morton nor Nick Martinez has been lights out, but Morton has been better at home. Ultimately, we like the Braves setting the tone as they’ll enter play with a greater sense of urgency.

Guardians -1.5 (-135 at DraftKings)
Welcome to the daily edition of “picking on the Chicago White Sox.” The White Sox are 4-12 ATS over their last 16, and are returning home after a six-game road trip. They’re nearly as woeful at Guaranteed Rate Field as they are on the road, so this is a spot where it’s worth considering the possibility of them coming out flat. They’re 10-22 following a win, so we’re not moved by their victory on Sunday.

Orioles moneyline (+102 at DraftKings)
Baltimore’s rookie southpaw Cade Povich is coming off of a gem — albeit against the White Sox — and pitched well against Boston on August 17 (6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K). The Orioles enter tonight’s contest averaging 4.6 runs since the start of September, compared to the Red Sox’ 2.7 mark. Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello has pitched better in the second half, but the Orioles are even more dangerous offensively on the road.

Look for Lower-Scoring Matchups as WNBA Gears Up for Playoffs

By Chris Farley

(Tuesday Games)

Minnesota Lynx -5.5 (-110 at DraftKings and Bovada)
The Atlanta Dream are getting some love from the oddsmakers because it's a highly motivational spot, but we're not taking that bait. The Lynx have just five games left to play and very little left to play for, since they're four games up in the West and coasting to a #1 seed in the playoffs. In 10 games since the Olympic break they've only lost once, and they're right up there with the Liberty as the best in the association. Atlanta continues to struggle. Their stats are slightly above average but wins haven't followed, and they're coming off two rough OT games the last four days. Playoff motivation is why the Dream are only a short dog, but they're still far and away the lesser program.

Minnesota vs. Atlanta under 160.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
The Atlanta Dream are coming off two straight OT games where the teams combined for a healthy 408 points. We think that'll abruptly slow down on Tuesday. High-scoring in Atlanta games is already a rarity. The team prefers to move at one of the slowest tempos in the WNBA, second only to Phoenix, and they're a team predicated by defense. Somehow, two of the last three meetings between two above-average defenses eclipsed 160 points, but that's due to regress. This game doesn't matter for Minnesota, and Atlanta knows they can't trust their offense to win the game.

New York vs. Dallas under 170.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
If this was a normal WNBA game, we would assume plenty of points. The Wings move at one of the quickest tempos in the WNBA and they've rode their offense into success since the break. It still wasn't enough to make the playoffs. The Liberty, on the other hand, have been the most consistent and highest-scoring offense in the W this season, but they're 4.5 games ahead of the next team (Connecticut) in the East and might consider resting players. This one is a lot less meaningful and a lot less productive on the scoreboard than oddsmakers expect. 

New York Liberty 1st half -6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Dallas Wings have been much better on offense in the second half of the season, but most of it happened in the second half of games. Post-Olympic-break, only the Chicago Sky have a worse net rating than the Dallas Wings in the first half. And while the Liberty certainly don't need to win on Tuesday, a massive -10 spread suggests they'll play many of their stars, at least early, in an effort to keep their momentum going as the postseason looms. This is a discount-number considering the above facts.

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