Early Insights on NFL Week 17 and CFP Playoff Matchups + Today’s Only Bowl Game

We also look at where 70%+ of spread bettors have early NFL money

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Spurs might have OKC’s number

2. Game of the Day: Well, there’s only one game today

3. By the Numbers: 9 NFL Week 17 matchups where 70%+ of spread bettors are backing a team

4. Scouting Report: Previewing the CFP quarterfinals

5. Overtime: Kelce gets most Pro Bowl votes as potential final game in KC awaits

1. Leading Off

SAN ANTONIO — The Spurs just might be the Thunder’s kryptonite. Ten days after upsetting Oklahoma City in the NBA Cup semifinals, San Antonio blew out the Thunder 130-110 even though Victor Wembanyama didn’t have much of a presence. After starting the season with a record-tying 24-1 pace, Oklahoma City has lost three of five, two of which were to San Antonio. The Spurs have now won seven in a row and are just 3.5 games back of the defending NBA champions in the West.

Wembanyama played 23 minutes for San Antonio, scoring 12 points on 5-9 shooting and added five rebounds. He came off the bench for the sixth consecutive game since returning from injury, but another Spurs bench player, Keldon Johnson, led the team in points yesterday with 25 (10-16, 5-9 from three). Even more impressive in San Antonio’s eye-opening win was that De'Aaron Fox scored just six points in the 20-point victory, while Oklahoma City’s reigning MVP wasn’t exactly quiet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 33 points on 14-22 shooting and added eight assists.

In the end, the youthful Spurs’ depth proved to be too much for the Thunder in front of a raucous crowd in San Antonio. The two teams play again in Oklahoma City tomorrow.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Game of the Day

The 1 Game on the Christmas Eve Slate Features Cal’s Freshman Phenom QB

Christmas Eve might be the quietest sports day of the year now that Christmas Day has been taken over from both the NFL and NBA from noon ET until nearly midnight. The Hawaiʻi Bowl and soccer’s Africa Cup of Nations is all that’s on tap today television-wise. So if you haven’t seen Cal freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele yet, now is your chance. The Hawai’i native threw for 3,117 yards (63.6% completion) and 17 touchdowns with just nine picks in his debut season, good for a 129.8 rating. Sagapolutele decided to stay at the school even with a coaching change, as Justin Wilcox was fired after a 42-50 record and former Cal defensive lineman, Tosh Lupoi, who was Oregon’s defensive coordinator, is taking over as the Golden Bears’ head coach.

California (7-5) vs. Hawai'i (8-4) [Hawaiʻi Bowl]
8pm on ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: CAL (+1.5, -112), HAW (-1.5, -108)

  • 54% of the money is with HAW but 62% of the bets are with CAL

  • ATS | CAL 5-7, HAW 8-4

• Moneyline: CAL -102, HAW -116

• Total (50.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • CAL: 4-8, HAW 4-8

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• CAL QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele | Pass Yards 330, 269, 323, 213, 286, Pass Attempts: 40, 49, 47, 30, 39, Pass TD 4, 0, 2, 0, 1

• CAL RB Kendrick Raphael | Rush Yards: 111, 47, 83, 46, 71, Carries: 33, 15, 19, 13, 20, Anytime TD: 1, 0, 1, 2, 3

• HAW QB Micah Alejado | Pass Yards: 289, 163, 256, 367, 301, Pass Attempts: 24, 24, 34, 46, 38, Pass TD: 2, 1, 3, 3, 3

• HAW WR Pofele Ashlock | Rec Yards: 71, 0, 35, 104, 26, Receptions: 4, 0, 3, 7, 2

*Stats listed are past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

3. By the Numbers

Nine NFL Week 17 Games Where 70%+ of Spread Bettors are Backing 1 Team Early

NFL

We’re looking ahead at NFL games where 70%+ of spread bettors are behind one team before the next slate of games begin:

• Cowboys (-7, -105) vs. Commanders (+7, -115)

  • 83% of the money and 74% of the bets are with DAL

    • ATS | DAL (road): 3-4, WAS (home): 3-4

  • Total (50.5) | DAL: 10-5 (28.3 ppg), WAS: 8-7 (20.6 ppg)

• Lions (-7, -110) vs. Vikings (+7, -110)

  • 88% of the money and 81% of the bets are with DET

    • ATS | DET (road): 3-4, MIN (home): 2-4

  • Total (43.5) | DET: 10-5 (30.1 ppg), MIN: 8-7 (20.3 ppg)

• Broncos (-12.5, -120) vs. Chiefs (-12.5, -102)

  • 91% of the money and 81% of the bets are with DEN

    • ATS | DEN (road): 2-3-1, KC (home): 4-3-1

  • Total (36.5) | DEN: 7-8 (24.1 ppg), KC: 4-11 (22.5 ppg)

• Ravens (+2.5, -102) vs. Packers (-2.5, -120)

  • 80% of the money and 73% of the bets are with GB

    • ATS | BAL (road): 3-3, GB (home): 4-3

  • Total (41.5) | BAL: 7-8 (23.9 ppg), GB: 8-7 (24.3 ppg)

• Cardinals (+7, -110) vs. Bengals (-7, -110)

  • 96% of the money and 80% of bets are with CIN

    • ATS | ARI (road): 5-2, CIN (home): 3-4

  • Total (53.5) | ARI: 9-6 (21.4 ppg), CIN: 9-6 (23.9 ppg)

• Buccaneers (-5.5, -105) vs. Dolphins (+5.5, -115)

  • 94% of the money and 79% of the bets are with TB

    • ATS | TB (road): 4-4, MIA (home): 3-4

  • Total (45.5) | TB: 8-7 (23.1 ppg), MIA: 7-8 (21.1 ppg)

• Jaguars (-6.5, -118) vs. Colts (+6.5, -104)

  • 89% of the money and 82% of the bets are with JAX

    • ATS | JAX (road): 4-3, IND (home): 4-3

  • Total (47.5) | JAX: 9-6 (27.3 ppg), IND: 8-7 (27.9 ppg)

• Patriots (-12.5, -115) vs. Jets (+12.5, -105)

  • 98% of the money and 84% of the bets are with NE

    • ATS | NE (road): 6-1, NYJ (home): 3-4

  • Total (42.5) | NE: 9-6 (27.3 ppg), NYJ: 9-6 (18.8 ppg)

• Rams (-8.5, -104) vs. Falcons (+8.5, -118)

  • 91% of the money and 77% of the bets are with LAR

    • ATS | LAR (road): 5-2, ATL (home): 2-4

  • Total (49.5) | LAR: 8-7 (30.5 ppg), ATL: 7-8 (20.5 ppg)

4. Scouting Report

Defending Champion Buckeyes are Only Team Favored By 1+ TD in CFP Quarterfinals

• Rose Bowl: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama

  • Spread: IND (-6.5, -120), ALA (+6.5, -102) | 54% of the money is with IND but 52% of the bets are with ALA

  • Matchup to Watch: Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (Heisman Trophy winner) vs. Alabama secondary (10th in defensive passing yards per game at 168.4)

  • Notes: Alabama’s three losses this year are more than Indiana has in the past two seasons combined. But the Crimson Tide have six wins over top-16 opponents during the span to the Hoosiers’ three.

• Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami

  • Spread: OSU (-9.5, -112), UM (+9.5, -108) | 68% of the money and 63% of the bets are with OSU

  • Matchup to Watch: Ohio State’s defensive gives up just 8.2 points per game while Miami’s gives up only 13.0 and surrendered three to Texas A&M in round 1 of the CFP

  • Notes: The Buckeyes opened the season with a win over then No. 1 Texas but didn’t beat (or play) another top-10 team all season until their loss to No. 2 Indiana in the Big Ten title game. Miami has two top-10 wins this year (No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 7 Texas A&M).

• Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss

  • Spread: UGA (-6.5, -114), MISS (+6.5, -106) | 79% of the money and 70% of the bets are with UGA

  • Matchup to Watch: Ole Miss’s offense without Lane Kiffin vs. Georgia’s defense that gives up just 284.5 yards per game

  • Notes: After Ole Miss scored a touchdown to go up 35-26 with 4:12 left in the third quarter, Georgia scored 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win the game in their matchup earlier this season.

• Orange Bowl: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon

  • Spread: TTU (+1.5, -105), ORE (-1.5, -115) | 55% of the money and bets are with ORE

  • Matchup to Watch: Texas Tech’s high-powered offense (fifth in the nation at 480.3 yards per game) vs. Oregon’s shutdown defense (eighth in the country at 271.4 yards per game)

  • Notes: After their lone loss of the season, the Red Raiders won their final six games by a combined score of 245-43. The Ducks won their last six regular season games after their only loss by a 205-87 total.

5. Overtime

In the News

• The NBA is looking at ways to prevent teams from tanking to have a better shot at earning better picks in the draft, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. Two potential rules being considered: “No longer allowing a team to draft in the top four two years in a row,” and “locking lottery positions after March 1.”

• The Chiefs play in their final home game of the season in a primetime Christmas matchup that was supposed to have huge playoff implications. Instead, the only question surrounding Kansas City is whether it will be Travis Kelce’s finale at Arrowhead Stadium as rumors swirl about potential retirement. “It’s a unique time in my life, and unfortunately I know when the season ends this year,” Kelce said. “Typically we go into it and we don’t know when it will end.” The Chiefs’ struggles aside, for the second year in a row, he earned the most votes from fans for the Pro Bowl.

• First-year Jets coach Aaron Glenn told fans that “it’s going to be a tough road,” but “we know exactly what we’re doing. We have a plan.” New York traded two of its biggest stars on defense, Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, earlier this year, and benched quarterback Justin Fields. The Jets have the longest active streak in the NFL with 15 consecutive years missing the playoffs.

• Brooks Koepka is leaving LIV Golf but it remains to be seen if the PGA Tour will take him back. Kopeka was one of the highest-profile golfers to leave for LIV when it launched in 2022 and had one year remaining on his contract with the Saudi-backed league. LIV’s new CEO said the star and the tour “amicably and mutually agreed” that he will no longer compete. According to the Associated Press, “Koepka had alerted the PGA Tour of his plans before the LIV announcement.”

• With Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline headed to the University of South Florida to become head coach after the College Football Playoff, Buckeyes coach Ryan Day has decided to take over offensive play calling duties beginning with the Cotton Bowl matchup against Miami. Hartline had been calling plays this season, taking over for Chip Kelly, who left Ohio State after last year to be the Raiders offensive coordinator (Kelly was fired 11 games). Prior to Kelly, Day had called the plays on offense for the Buckeyes while serving as head coach, so this isn’t exactly a new situation for him.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 8pm: California vs. Hawai’i [Hawai’i Bowl] on ESPN