Trends and Stats for Tonight’s 49ers vs. Colts MNF Matchup + NBA Odds to Watch

And we look at where bettors have money across three sports

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Few surprises and few things decided in the NFL’s Week 16

2. The Rundown: There are only two NFL teams left with two wins and they play next week

3. Game of the Day: 49ers look to stay in playoff hunt in MNF

4. By the Numbers: Jokic gets matchup against one of NBA’s worst defenses

5. Overtime: The Jaguars are now just one game back for AFC’s top seed

1. Leading Off

The Broncos are still atop the AFC despite their loss to the Jaguars, but based on remaining schedules, they have the least-likely chance of the top three to earn the conference’s No. 1 seed after a wild Week 16 in the NFL. Jacksonville had the most eye-opening performance yesterday, beating the Broncos by two touchdowns in Denver behind a sterling performance by quarterback Trevor Lawrence (23-36, 265 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT). With the Broncos loss and Patriots improbable 11-point 4th-quarter comeback in Baltimore on Sunday Night Football, New England should now be favored to earn the top spot in the AFC based on a soft closing schedule, and even Jacksonville could pass up Denver.

The Panthers control their own destiny in the NFC South after their win over the Buccaneers, and the Steelers’ victory over the Lions means that Pittsburgh set the NFL record for most consecutive non-losing seasons. Because of the Ravens’ meltdown, Pittsburgh is now two games up on Baltimore with two games to play. Detroit needs to win out and needs Green Bay to lose out for the Lions to earn a playoff spot, while the Bears officially clinched a postseason bid.

The two playoff-chasing teams that had the easier matchups of the weekend did what they were supposed to: The Chargers ran away from the Cowboys in the second half to get to 11 wins for the second season in a row for the first time since 2006 and 2007, and the Bills (barely) got out of Cleveland with the win they needed to keep pressure on the Patriots in the AFC East.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Titans and Saints saw their young quarterbacks put up their best performances as pros in wins the franchises didn’t necessarily need, as they both fell down the draft order. Even still, Tennessee had to love to see Cam Ward’s 21-28, 228-yard, two-touchdown, zero-interception performance in a blowout over Kansas City. And New Orleans won its third straight in a rout of the Jets behind Tyler Shough’s first 300-yard passing day (he was 32-49 with a touchdown and no picks). The 2-13 Giants maintained their hold on the top pick in next year’s NFL Draft with a 16-13 loss to the Vikings, New York’s ninth loss in a row.

The playoffs are very much on the line in tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup between the 49ers and Colts. We have a breakdown on that game later on in today’s newsletter.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

NFL Teams Competing for Top Draft Pick Face Off, What’s Next for CFP Losers, and Crosby Sets Penguins’ Record

• There are eight teams left in the College Football Playoff, but what does the outlook look like for the four who were eliminated in the first round? ESPN takes a look at what next season could be for Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Tulane and James Madison. Texas A&M looked unbeatable for most of the season, but then fell to rival Texas to close out the regular season before being completely shut down by Miami on Saturday. The Aggies’ historically weak SEC schedule has pundits wondering if their record was a fluke or a sign of things to come.

• The NFL’s two teams with two losses face off on Sunday with the top pick in the NFL Draft potentially on the line. With the Giants 16-13 home loss to the Vikings and Raiders plucky effort in a 23-21 defeat to the Texans, they’re the only two teams that have two losses. There are four teams waiting in the wings if both franchises “slip up” and get to three losses, but otherwise, one of these two squads will end up with the No. 1 pick. The Giants almost certainly wouldn’t draft Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza with Jaxson Dart on the squad, so they could trade down, but the Raiders could very much be interested in Mendoza’s services.

• Sidney Crosby broke the Penguins all-time scoring record, surpassing the mark set by Hall-of-Famer Mario Lemieux. Crosby has 645 goals and 1,079 assists, good for for 1,724 points, in 1,387 games for Pittsburgh, which is the eighth-most in NHL history. Unfortunately for Crosby, the Penguins are seventh in the eight-team Metropolitan division with 39 points and have two wins in their past 10 games.

• Frustration is starting to set in for Georgetown basketball coach Ed Cooley three years into his tenure in Washington, D.C. He was suspended for one game by the school after a water bottle he threw after his team’s fourth loss in seven games hit a kid in the stands. Cooley left his alma mater Providence after a successful 12-year run that included a 242-153 record and seven NCAA Tournament appearances to resurrect a Georgetown program that had fallen apart under Patrick Ewing. Cooley might have regrets, as he’s just 35-43 at Georgetown and is now throwing things.

• The White Sox signed Japanese third baseman Munetaka Murakami to a two-year contract. Murakami hit 56 home runs in 2022, breaking the record for a Japanese-born player in the country’s professional league. He was also the youngest player to earn a triple crown in Nippon Professional Baseball. Murakami does have a propensity to strike out, though, with 977 in 982 games over eight seasons. Chicago finished with the second-worst record in MLB last season at 60-102 and scored the fourth-fewest runs in the majors.

3. Game of the Day

49ers Look to Keep Pace in NFC West Against Short-Handed Colts

The 49ers have won four straight, are still in contention for the NFC West, and have already clinched a playoff spot. The Colts were one of the surprises of the first half of the season, getting off to a 7-1 start with the resurgent Daniel Jones at quarterback, but everything has fallen apart since then and Indianapolis is now relying on the un-retired 44-year-old Philip Rivers to salvage the season. There’s almost no hope for that, though. San Francisco has dealt with injury problems all year again but keeps finding ways to win. Running back Christian McCaffrey leads the team in both rushing and receiving yards, and has 14 combined touchdowns on the season.

49ers (10-4, 6-2 Away) vs. Colts (8-6, 6-1 Home)
8:15pm on ABC/ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: SF (-5.5, -115), IND (+5.5, -105)

  • 79% of the money and 67% of the bets are with SF

  • ATS | SF (road): 6-2, IND (home): 4-2

• Moneyline: SF: -270, IND: +220

• Total (46.5): Over -105, Under -115

  • SF: 8-6, IND: 7-7

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• SF QB Brock Purdy | Pass Yards: 243.5 (295, 168, 193, 200, 309), Pass Attempts: 33.5 (30, 29, 32, 26, 38), Pass TD: 1.5 (3, 1, 1, 3, 2)

• SF RB Christian McCaffrey | Rush Yards: 59.5 (73, 53, 89, 81, 30), Carries: 17.5 (22, 20, 24, 13, 12), Rec Yards: 38.5 (14, 21, 53, 40, 66), Anytime TD: -210 (1, 1, 1, 3, 0)

• IND RB Jonathan Taylor | Rush Yards: 97.5 (87, 74, 85, 58, 244), Carries: 23.5 (25, 21, 21, 16, 32), Rec Yards: 19.5 (13, 0, 36, 8, 42), Anytime TD: -250 (0, 1, 0, 0, 3)

• IND TE Tyler Warren | Rec Yards: 33.5 (19, 15, 22, 45, 99), Receptions: 3.5 (3, 2, 3, 5, 8)

*Stats listed in parentheses are past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

4. By the Numbers

Jokic Has Good Matchup Against One of NBA’s Worst Defenses After Two Below-Average Games

CFB

• Washington State (6-6) Utah State (6-6): Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

  • WSU (-1.5, -102), UTST (+1.5, -120): 53% of the money is with WSU but 57% of the bets are with UTST

    • ATS | WSU: 8-4 UTST: 10-2

  • Moneyline: WSU -106, UTST -110

  • Total (49.5) | WSU: 3-9 (21.5 ppg), UTST: 5-7 (31.8 ppg)

NBA

• Hornets (9-19, 3-11 Away) vs. Cavaliers (15-14, 9-8 Home)

  • CHA (+9.5, -114), CLE (-9.5, -106): 58% of the money and 65% of the bets are with CHA

    • ATS | CHA (road): 6-8, CLE (home): 4-13

  • Total (238.5) | CHA: 10-18 (114.5 ppg), CLE: 13-16 (118.7 ppg)

• Pacers (6-22, 1-12 Away) vs. Celtics (17-11, 9-5 Home)

  • IND (+10.5, -114), BOS (-10.5, -106): 57% of the money and the spread is with Indiana

    • ATS | IND (road): 5-8, BOS (home): 8-6

  • Total (225.5) | IND: 11-17 (110.2 ppg), BOS: 13-15 (116.5 ppg)

• Mavericks (11-18, 3-8 Away) vs. Pelicans (7-22, 5-12 Home)

  • DAL (+1, -110), NO (-1, -110): 67% of the money and 58% of the best are with DAL

    • ATS | DAL (road): 5-6, NO (home): 11-5-1

  • Total (237.5) | DAL: 13-16 (00 ppg), NO: 18-11 (00 ppg)

• Jazz (10-17, 3-8 Away), Nuggets (20-7, 8-5 Home)

  • UTA (+15, -110), DEN (-15, -110): 68% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Utah

    • ATS | UTA (road): 4-7, DEN (home): 7-6

  • Total (247.5) | UTA: 18-9 (113.0 ppg), DEN: 18-9 (124.7 ppg)

• Grizzlies, (13-15, 7-7 Away) vs. Thunder (25-3, 13-0 Home)

  • MEM (+16.5, -110), OKC (-16.5, -110): 73% of the money and 57% of the bets are with OKC

    • ATS | MEM (road): 7-7, OKC (home): 8-5

  • Total (229.5) | MEM: 10-18 (114.7 ppg), OKC: 14-14 (122.5 ppg)

• Magic (16-12, 6-7 Away) vs, Warriors (14-15, 8-4 Home)

  • ORL (+5.5, -110), GS (-5.5, -110): 62% of th emoney is with GS but 59% of the bets are with ORL

    • ATS | (road): 6-7, GS (home): 6-6

  • Total (228.5) | ORL: 16-12 (118.1 ppg), GS: 16-13(114.0 ppg)

• Pistons (22-6, 9-4 Away) vs. Trail Blazers (12-16, 5-6 Home)

  • DET (-5.5, -112), POR (+5.5, -108): 68% of the money and 60% of the bets are with DET

    • ATS | DET (road): 7-6, POR (home): 7-4

  • Total (234.5) | DET: 14-14 (118.9 ppg), POR: 18-10 (118.0 ppg)

Players to Watch

• Nuggets C Nikola Jokic (vs. Jazz)

  • Points: 30.5 (29.4 - 25, 23, 39, 36, 28), Reb: 12.5 (12.1 - 7, 11, 15, 12, 9), Ast: 10.5 (10.7 - 7, 11, 15, 12, 9)

  • UTA - L2 | Points: 126.8 (30th), Reb: 44.7 (18th), Ast: 29.6 (30th)

• Pistons G Cade Cunningham (at Trail Blazers)

  • Points: 27.5 (27.0 - 22, 29, 32, 15, 23), Reb: 6.5 (6.4 - 10, 10, 4, 1, 6), Ast: 9.5 (9.2 - 10, 9, 10, 6, 12)

  • POR - W3 | Points: 121.3 (25th), Reb: 44.6 (16th), Ast: 27.1 (19th)

• Mavericks F Anthony Davis (at Pelicans)

  • Points: 24.5 (18.8 - 24, 23, 42, 22, 19), Reb: 11.5 (6.4 - 4, 10, 7, 5, 5), Ast: 00 (3.5 - 3, 4, 6, 8, 3)

  • NO - W4 | Points: 122.5 (28th), Reb: 44.9 (20th), Ast: 28.8 (28th)

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

5. Overtime

Quotable

“Everybody in this locker room on the Jaguars team, even upstairs, we know everybody's probably going to try to hop on this bandwagon now, but we don't want anybody. They can stay where they’re at. It’s us. It’s all about the Jags. F- everybody but us. Excuse my language, dad, grandmamma, but f- everybody but us.” — Jaguars defensive end Travon Walker on the team’s postgame show. Jacksonville is now just one game back of the No. 1 spot in the AFC after beating the Broncos by two touchdowns and getting to 11-4 on the season.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 2pm: Washington State vs. Utah State [Idaho Potato Bowl] on ESPN

• 7pm: Hornets vs. Cavaliers on Peacock

• 7:30pm: Canucks vs. Flyers on NHL Network

• 8pm: Missouri vs. No. 18 Illinois [MCBB] on FS1

• 8:15pm: 49ers vs. Colts on ABC/ESPN

• 9:30pm: Grizzlies vs. Thunder on Peacock